TF2 trading research · Beginner friendly
Buy the item or try a TF2 trade-up?
If you want one particular cosmetic, start with its direct purchase price—not the biggest ROI on a board. A trade-up gives you a random result. Here is how to compare the two choices without mistaking an average for a promise.
By TF2TradeUps.com · Content updated · Price examples are illustrative, not current offers.
Jump to the worked examples and calculator ↓
Do you want the cosmetic, or a chance at several outcomes?
Buying directly and doing a trade-up solve different problems. A completed direct purchase gives you the exact item and quality you selected. A contract consumes ten compatible items and produces one result from its output pool. The attractive target is only one of those results.
Use the examples below to inspect the actual catalog route. They are not recommendations to buy these inputs. Their probabilities come from the collection model used by this calculator, not from a sample of successful player rolls. Prices are deliberately not frozen into the article; use the linked item pages for saved buy/sell observations and check the listings themselves.
Three actual items, three different decisions
Bone Chiller, Deadwave Communicator and Unruly Ruler illustrate a target with eight possible results, a target with four, and an item with no lower-tier route in its collection. A recipe cannot be created just because you can find ten inexpensive items elsewhere.
The examples list distinct input names, not available stock. Ten copies of one compatible name and ten mixed names within the same collection and grade have the same modeled target odds. Keep Strange and Non-Strange inputs separate. These cosmetic examples do not use War Paint wear calculations.
Catalog examples and your target budget
Calculated from this site’s collection catalog. Standard item-grade trade-ups only; no case-opening, Unusual or profit odds are implied.
Haunted Hoard Collection · Commando
Ten compatible Mercenary inputs from this collection give a 12.50% target chance. Five inputs from this collection plus five compatible inputs from other collections give 6.25%.
10 distinct compatible input names; 8 possible next-grade results. Counts are catalog entries, not items in stock.
Inspect the actual input and output names
Compatible inputs
- Batter's Jersey
- Bounty Hunter's Brim
- Grenadier's Goggles
- High Caliber Earner
- Mined Mind
- Rough Rider
- Skeleton Crew
- Twain Tassets
- Two Faced Terror
- Vance's Vest
Possible results
- Bone Chiller · 12.50%
- Clowning Cowl · 12.50%
- Cogwork Cargos · 12.50%
- Crown of the Ye Olde Kingdom · 12.50%
- Desperado Disguise · 12.50%
- General's Greatcoat · 12.50%
- Hell-Bent Leather · 12.50%
- Showdown Slacks · 12.50%
Alphabetical example input, not a cheapest-input recommendation. Recheck costs and stock.
Summer 2026 Cosmetics Collection · Assassin
Ten compatible Commando inputs from this collection give a 25.00% target chance. Five inputs from this collection plus five compatible inputs from other collections give 12.50%.
8 distinct compatible input names; 4 possible next-grade results. Counts are catalog entries, not items in stock.
Inspect the actual input and output names
Compatible inputs
- Atomic Bomber
- Bomb Blanket
- Delusions of Grandeur
- Lieutenant's Cut
- Standing Offer
- Surgical Shroud
- The Handsome Ranger
- Tsar Athlete
Possible results
- Beachcomber's Brim · 25.00%
- Bonk! Atomic Kicks · 25.00%
- Chief Executor · 25.00%
- Deadwave Communicator · 25.00%
Alphabetical example input, not a cheapest-input recommendation. Recheck costs and stock.
Summer 2026 Cosmetics Collection · Mercenary
There is no lower-grade input tier in this collection, so our catalog has no within-collection trade-up recipe to this item. It can instead be an input toward one of 8 Commando results. Compare its direct listings if this is the item you want.
What would repeated attempts cost?
The default 10 ref contract cost is hypothetical. Enter your verified full contract cost and, optionally, the target’s direct sell listing. Nothing here purchases items.
40.00 ref gross spend · 40 inputs consumed
41.38% chance of at least one Bone Chiller; 58.62% chance of none.
Independent attempts, unchanged recipe. This is not net profit: other output proceeds, price changes and repeat purchases are not modeled.
Four attempts at 25% does not mean you will get the item
For a 25% target chance, four independent contracts give a 68.36% chance of at least one target. There is still a 31.64% chance of getting none. Those four contracts consume forty inputs. “One in four” describes probability, not a guaranteed order of results.
The calculation is 1 − (1 − p)^n, where p is the target chance per contract and n is the number of attempts. It assumes the same recipe each time. It does not assume you sell failed results, recycle them, or change collection weights between attempts. Use the adjustable comparison above to see the gross spend and the chance of still missing your target.
Compare the full spend, not just the first contract
Suppose a contract costs 10 ref and the target is listed for 25 ref. Three contracts cost 30 ref before any resale. At a 25% chance per contract, those three attempts still have a 42.19% chance of missing the target entirely. This is an illustrative price example, not a current opportunity.
Other outputs may recover some of that cost, so gross spend is not the same as net loss. To estimate net profit, price every output using an eligible buy order and subtract the full acquisition cost. A target-only budget comparison cannot replace that EV calculation. If your goal is simply owning the item, a verified direct listing is the more predictable route.
Before committing your items
Open the target and collection links, check the required grade, and verify the exact quality. Then inspect enough input listings to obtain ten items. One cheap ask is not ten available copies. A more expensive input does not improve the single-collection odds.
Check the age and eligibility of every output buy order. Paint, spells and other requested attributes can make a tempting buy order irrelevant to an ordinary output. If a required quote is missing, stop short of calling the contract profitable. Load a recipe only after you understand the downside; the calculator is a research tool, not a reservation or an automatic trade.
Sources and calculation notes
Our catalog provides the item and grade relationships. Probability and budget examples are calculated from stated assumptions; they are not observed player win rates or verified live opportunities.