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TF2 collection guide · Saved market observations

Winter 2021 Cosmetics Collection Trade-Up Guide

Winter 2021 Cosmetics Collection contains 20 items across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade item is Oh Deer!. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

20Items
3Routes
LoadingDataset state
Data snapshot . Loading the dataset does not recheck every listing; individual quotes can still be missing or stale.

Steam pricing is temporarily paused. Prices use backpack.tf only.

Winter 2021 Cosmetics Collection: choose your target tier

Start with the item you want, then choose the grade immediately below it. Winter 2021 Cosmetics Collection offers 3 adjacent-grade routes. Each row below assumes ten eligible inputs from this collection, with one result per contract; these are not case-opening probabilities.

10 Mercenary inputs → 1 Commando output

Choose among 10 input item names. Each of the 6 outputs has a 16.67% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 8.33% chance.

Commando targets

Compare Mercenary inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Commando inputs → 1 Assassin output

Choose among 6 input item names. Each of the 3 outputs has a 33.33% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 16.67% chance.

Assassin targets

Compare Commando inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Assassin inputs → 1 Elite output

Choose among 3 input item names. Each of the 1 outputs has a 100.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 50.00% chance.

Elite targets

Compare Assassin inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

Buying a higher-priced input in the same grade does not improve these single-collection odds. Price and quality still matter for cost: Strange and Non-Strange cannot be mixed. Read the odds guide or learn how expected profit differs from a guaranteed return.

Winter 2021 Cosmetic Case

Container information · Series #135

Winter 2021 Cosmetic Case

Winter 2021 Cosmetic Case contains items from the Winter 2021 Cosmetics Collection. The case was introduced on 2021-12-04. Requires a Winter 2021 Cosmetic Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Winter 2021 Cosmetics Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary10 items

80.00%

Commando6 items

16.00%

Assassin3 items

3.20%

Elite1 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade
  • Brain Cane

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Cozy Catchers

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • El Fiestibrero

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Elf Defense

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Festive Cover-Up

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Festive Frames

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Gnome Dome

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Mooshanka

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Ominous Offering

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • The Giftcrafter

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

Commando Grade
  • Elf Ignition

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

  • Elf-Made Bandanna

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

  • Reindoonihorns

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

  • Seasonal Employee

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

  • Seasonal Spring

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

  • Train Of Thought

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

Assassin Grade
  • Hat Chocolate

    Assassin · Chance: 1.07%

  • Jolly Jester

    Assassin · Chance: 1.07%

  • Merry Cone

    Assassin · Chance: 1.07%

Elite Grade
  • Oh Deer!

    Elite · Chance: 0.80%

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Winter 2021 Cosmetics Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost30.00 ref
Expected value5.11 ref
Expected P/L−24.89 ref
ROI-83.0%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputThe Giftcrafter3.00 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost33.30 ref
Expected value18.47 ref
Expected P/L−14.82 ref
ROI-44.5%
Win chance17%
Cheapest quoted inputCozy Catchers3.33 ref each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Brain Cane3.00 refChecks when viewed3.77 refChecks when viewed
Cozy Catchers3.11 refChecks when viewed3.33 refChecks when viewed
El Fiestibrero4.55 refChecks when viewed11.22 refChecks when viewed
Elf DefenseSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed3.55 refChecks when viewed
Festive Cover-Up3.11 refChecks when viewed4.66 refChecks when viewed
Festive Frames3.88 refChecks when viewed13.88 refChecks when viewed
Gnome Dome4.66 refChecks when viewed23.33 refChecks when viewed
Mooshanka3.11 refChecks when viewed5.88 refChecks when viewed
Ominous OfferingSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed9.77 refChecks when viewed
The Giftcrafter3.00 refChecks when viewed5.66 refChecks when viewed

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Elf Ignition16.7%4.11 refChecks when viewed13.44 refChecks when viewed
Elf-Made Bandanna16.7%5.44 refChecks when viewed16.77 refChecks when viewed
Reindoonihorns16.7%3.33 refChecks when viewed15.88 refChecks when viewed
Seasonal Employee16.7%11.11 refChecks when viewed37.88 refChecks when viewed
Seasonal Spring16.7%3.11 refChecks when viewed11.22 refChecks when viewed
Train Of Thought16.7%3.55 refChecks when viewed15.66 refChecks when viewed

Winter 2021 Cosmetics Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost32.20 ref
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputSeasonal Spring3.22 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost2 keys + 2.44 ref
Expected value1 key + 6.78 ref
Expected P/L−59.99 ref
ROI-45.8%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputSeasonal Spring13.11 ref each

Eligible Commando inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Elf Ignition4.33 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Elf-Made Bandanna5.66 refChecks when viewed17.11 refChecks when viewed
Reindoonihorns3.55 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Seasonal Employee11.22 refChecks when viewed40.33 refChecks when viewed
Seasonal Spring3.22 refChecks when viewed13.11 refChecks when viewed
Train Of Thought3.66 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Hat Chocolate33.3%Buy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed60.22 refChecks when viewed
Jolly Jester33.3%38.44 refChecks when viewed1 key + 34.11 refChecks when viewed
Merry Cone33.3%14.88 refChecks when viewed54.66 refChecks when viewed

Winter 2021 Cosmetics Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost2 keys + 20.14 ref
Expected value2 keys + 20.55 ref
Expected P/L+0.41 ref
ROI0.3%
Win chance100%
Cheapest quoted inputMerry Cone14.88 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost9 keys + 28.73 ref
Expected value6 keys + 10.00 ref
Expected P/L−3 keys − 18.73 ref
ROI-34.8%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputHat Chocolate60.77 ref each

Eligible Assassin inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Hat Chocolate15.33 refChecks when viewed60.77 refChecks when viewed
Jolly Jester40.33 refChecks when viewed1 key + 55.66 refChecks when viewed
Merry Cone14.88 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Oh Deer!100.0%2 keys + 20.55 refChecks when viewed6 keys + 10.00 refChecks when viewed

How to trade up to Winter 2021 Cosmetics Collection items

How to trade up to Elf Ignition

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2021 Cosmetics Collection for a 16.67% chance of Elf Ignition, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Elf Ignition trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Elf-Made Bandanna

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2021 Cosmetics Collection for a 16.67% chance of Elf-Made Bandanna, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Elf-Made Bandanna trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Reindoonihorns

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2021 Cosmetics Collection for a 16.67% chance of Reindoonihorns, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Reindoonihorns trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Seasonal Employee

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2021 Cosmetics Collection for a 16.67% chance of Seasonal Employee, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Seasonal Employee trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Seasonal Spring

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2021 Cosmetics Collection for a 16.67% chance of Seasonal Spring, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Seasonal Spring trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Train Of Thought

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2021 Cosmetics Collection for a 16.67% chance of Train Of Thought, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Train Of Thought trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Hat Chocolate

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Winter 2021 Cosmetics Collection for a 33.33% chance of Hat Chocolate, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Hat Chocolate trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Jolly Jester

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Winter 2021 Cosmetics Collection for a 33.33% chance of Jolly Jester, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Jolly Jester trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Merry Cone

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Winter 2021 Cosmetics Collection for a 33.33% chance of Merry Cone, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Merry Cone trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Oh Deer!

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Winter 2021 Cosmetics Collection for a 100.00% chance of Oh Deer!, one of 1 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 50.00%. The ten-input single-collection recipe guarantees the item type, not its selling price or a profit; the mixed recipe does not guarantee the item.

Calculate Oh Deer! trade-up odds →

How Winter 2021 Cosmetics Collection odds work

With ten Winter 2021 Cosmetics Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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