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TF2 collection guide · Saved market observations

Crimson Cache Collection Trade-Up Guide

Crimson Cache Collection contains 19 items across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade item is Towering Patch of Pumpkins. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

19Items
3Routes
LoadingDataset state
Data snapshot . Loading the dataset does not recheck every listing; individual quotes can still be missing or stale.

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Crimson Cache Collection: choose your target tier

Start with the item you want, then choose the grade immediately below it. Crimson Cache Collection offers 3 adjacent-grade routes. Each row below assumes ten eligible inputs from this collection, with one result per contract; these are not case-opening probabilities.

10 Mercenary inputs → 1 Commando output

Choose among 9 input item names. Each of the 6 outputs has a 16.67% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 8.33% chance.

Commando targets

Compare Mercenary inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Commando inputs → 1 Assassin output

Choose among 6 input item names. Each of the 3 outputs has a 33.33% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 16.67% chance.

Assassin targets

Compare Commando inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Assassin inputs → 1 Elite output

Choose among 3 input item names. Each of the 1 outputs has a 100.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 50.00% chance.

Elite targets

Compare Assassin inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

Buying a higher-priced input in the same grade does not improve these single-collection odds. Price and quality still matter for cost: Strange and Non-Strange cannot be mixed. Read the odds guide or learn how expected profit differs from a guaranteed return.

Crimson Cache Case

Container information · Series #133

Crimson Cache Case

Crimson Cache Case contains items from the Crimson Cache Collection. The case was introduced on 2021-10-04. Requires a Crimson Cache Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Crimson Cache Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary9 items

80.00%

Commando6 items

16.00%

Assassin3 items

3.20%

Elite1 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade
  • Beanie The All-Gnawing

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%

  • Creepy Crawlers

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%

  • Death Stare

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%

  • Hat Outta Hell

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%

  • Smiling Somen

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%

  • Spooky Head-Bouncers

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%

  • The Scariest Mask EVER

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%

  • Trickster's Treats

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%

  • Twisted Topper

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%

Commando Grade
  • Alakablamicon

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

  • Eyequarium

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

  • Goalkeeper

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

  • Optic Nerve

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

  • Second-Head Headwear

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

  • The Hook, Line, and Thinker

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

Assassin Grade
  • Gruesome Gourd

    Assassin · Chance: 1.07%

  • The Bone Cone

    Assassin · Chance: 1.07%

  • Wandering Wraith

    Assassin · Chance: 1.07%

Elite Grade
  • Towering Patch of Pumpkins

    Elite · Chance: 0.80%

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Crimson Cache Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost28.80 ref
Expected value7.79 ref
Expected P/L−21.01 ref
ROI-72.9%
Win chance17%
Cheapest quoted inputBeanie The All-Gnawing2.88 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost34.40 ref
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputBeanie The All-Gnawing3.44 ref each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Beanie The All-Gnawing2.88 refChecks when viewed3.44 refChecks when viewed
Creepy CrawlersSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed7.00 refChecks when viewed
Death StareSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed6.44 refChecks when viewed
Hat Outta Hell3.44 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Smiling SomenSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed4.11 refChecks when viewed
Spooky Head-BouncersSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
The Scariest Mask EVER3.22 refChecks when viewed9.55 refChecks when viewed
Trickster's Treats2.88 refChecks when viewed35.00 refChecks when viewed
Twisted Topper2.88 refChecks when viewed7.11 refChecks when viewed

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Alakablamicon16.7%3.22 refChecks when viewed14.44 refChecks when viewed
Eyequarium16.7%5.33 refChecks when viewedBuy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed
Goalkeeper16.7%29.33 refChecks when viewed1 key + 29.88 refChecks when viewed
Optic Nerve16.7%3.00 refChecks when viewed10.55 refChecks when viewed
Second-Head Headwear16.7%3.00 refChecks when viewed13.44 refChecks when viewed
The Hook, Line, and Thinker16.7%2.88 refChecks when viewed10.33 refChecks when viewed

Crimson Cache Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost30.00 ref
Expected value12.11 ref
Expected P/L−17.89 ref
ROI-59.6%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputThe Hook, Line, and Thinker3.00 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost1 key + 50.67 ref
Expected value54.26 ref
Expected P/L−60.74 ref
ROI-52.8%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputOptic Nerve11.50 ref each

Eligible Commando inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Alakablamicon3.33 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Eyequarium5.94 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Goalkeeper29.11 refChecks when viewed1 key + 33.55 refChecks when viewed
Optic Nerve3.00 refChecks when viewed11.50 refChecks when viewed
Second-Head Headwear3.11 refChecks when viewed14.22 refChecks when viewed
The Hook, Line, and Thinker3.00 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Gruesome Gourd33.3%9.11 refChecks when viewed53.11 refChecks when viewed
The Bone Cone33.3%9.00 refChecks when viewed46.55 refChecks when viewed
Wandering Wraith33.3%18.22 refChecks when viewed63.11 refChecks when viewed

Crimson Cache Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost1 key + 33.97 ref
Expected value14.11 ref
Expected P/L−1 key − 19.86 ref
ROI-85.6%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputThe Bone Cone9.83 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost7 keys + 64.09 ref
Expected value1 key + 13.11 ref
Expected P/L−6 keys − 50.98 ref
ROI-84.9%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputThe Bone Cone51.44 ref each

Eligible Assassin inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Gruesome GourdSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed1 key + 4.22 refChecks when viewed
The Bone Cone9.83 refChecks when viewed51.44 refChecks when viewed
Wandering Wraith19.44 refChecks when viewed1 key + 1.00 refChecks when viewed

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Towering Patch of Pumpkins100.0%14.11 refChecks when viewed1 key + 13.11 refChecks when viewed

How to trade up to Crimson Cache Collection items

How to trade up to Alakablamicon

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Crimson Cache Collection for a 16.67% chance of Alakablamicon, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Alakablamicon trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Eyequarium

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Crimson Cache Collection for a 16.67% chance of Eyequarium, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Eyequarium trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Goalkeeper

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Crimson Cache Collection for a 16.67% chance of Goalkeeper, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Goalkeeper trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Optic Nerve

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Crimson Cache Collection for a 16.67% chance of Optic Nerve, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Optic Nerve trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Second-Head Headwear

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Crimson Cache Collection for a 16.67% chance of Second-Head Headwear, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Second-Head Headwear trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Hook, Line, and Thinker

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Crimson Cache Collection for a 16.67% chance of The Hook, Line, and Thinker, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Hook, Line, and Thinker trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Gruesome Gourd

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Crimson Cache Collection for a 33.33% chance of Gruesome Gourd, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Gruesome Gourd trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Bone Cone

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Crimson Cache Collection for a 33.33% chance of The Bone Cone, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Bone Cone trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Wandering Wraith

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Crimson Cache Collection for a 33.33% chance of Wandering Wraith, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Wandering Wraith trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Towering Patch of Pumpkins

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Crimson Cache Collection for a 100.00% chance of Towering Patch of Pumpkins, one of 1 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 50.00%. The ten-input single-collection recipe guarantees the item type, not its selling price or a profit; the mixed recipe does not guarantee the item.

Calculate Towering Patch of Pumpkins trade-up odds →

How Crimson Cache Collection odds work

With ten Crimson Cache Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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