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Infernal Reward Collection Trade-Up Guide

Infernal Reward Collection contains 13 War Paint designs across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade item is Fire Glazed War Paint. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

13Items
3Routes
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Infernal Reward War Paint Case

Container information · Series #110

Infernal Reward War Paint Case

Infernal Reward War Paint Case contains items from the Infernal Reward Collection. The case was introduced on 2017-10-10. Requires a Infernal Reward War Paint Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Infernal Reward Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary5 items

80.00%

Commando4 items

16.00%

Assassin3 items

3.20%

Elite1 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade
  • Bloom Buffed War Paint

    Mercenary · Chance: 16.00%

  • Cardboard Boxed War Paint

    Mercenary · Chance: 16.00%

  • Merc Stained War Paint

    Mercenary · Chance: 16.00%

  • Quack Canvassed War Paint

    Mercenary · Chance: 16.00%

  • Star Crossed War Paint

    Mercenary · Chance: 16.00%

Commando Grade
  • Bank Rolled War Paint

    Commando · Chance: 4.00%

  • Clover Camo'd War Paint

    Commando · Chance: 4.00%

  • Kill Covered War Paint

    Commando · Chance: 4.00%

  • Pizza Polished War Paint

    Commando · Chance: 4.00%

Assassin Grade
  • Bonk Varnished War Paint

    Assassin · Chance: 1.07%

  • Dream Piped War Paint

    Assassin · Chance: 1.07%

  • Freedom Wrapped War Paint

    Assassin · Chance: 1.07%

Elite Grade
  • Fire Glazed War Paint

    Elite · Chance: 0.80%

War Paint and decorated-weapon quotes must match both quality and wear. This guide compares Factory New only; select Minimal Wear, Field-Tested, Well-Worn or Battle Scarred in the calculator. Steam USD is recommended because backpack.tf wear-specific coverage is limited. A collection’s output wear follows that collection’s inputs, not another collection’s wear.

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Infernal Reward Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost$5.50
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputMerc Stained War Paint$0.55 each

Strange

strange
10× cost$139.20
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputMerc Stained War Paint$13.92 each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Bloom Buffed War Paint$1.46$22.00
Cardboard Boxed War Paint$1.28$18.98
Merc Stained War Paint$0.55$13.92
Quack Canvassed War Paint$1.52$28.00
Star Crossed War Paint$1.92$62.61

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Bank Rolled War Paint25.0%$3.59$49.49
Clover Camo'd War Paint25.0%No eligible quoteNo eligible quote
Kill Covered War Paint25.0%No eligible quoteNo eligible quote
Pizza Polished War Paint25.0%$3.09$42.07

Infernal Reward Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost$49.10
Expected value$27.63
Expected P/L−$21.47
ROI-43.7%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputPizza Polished War Paint$4.91 each

Strange

strange
10× cost$817.90
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputPizza Polished War Paint$81.79 each

Eligible Commando inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Bank Rolled War Paint$5.48$133.49
Clover Camo'd War PaintNo eligible quoteNo eligible quote
Kill Covered War PaintNo eligible quoteNo eligible quote
Pizza Polished War Paint$4.91$81.79

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Bonk Varnished War Paint33.3%$18.32$152.21
Dream Piped War Paint33.3%$30.13No eligible quote
Freedom Wrapped War Paint33.3%$34.45No eligible quote

Infernal Reward Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost$265.70
Expected value$26.24
Expected P/L−$239.46
ROI-90.1%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputBonk Varnished War Paint$26.57 each

Strange

strange
10× cost$2873.00
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputBonk Varnished War Paint$287.30 each

Eligible Assassin inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Bonk Varnished War Paint$26.57$287.30
Dream Piped War Paint$49.99No eligible quote
Freedom Wrapped War Paint$52.25No eligible quote

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Fire Glazed War Paint100.0%$26.24No eligible quote

How to trade up to Infernal Reward Collection items

How to trade up to Bank Rolled War Paint

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Infernal Reward Collection for a 25.00% chance of Bank Rolled War Paint, one of 4 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Bank Rolled War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Clover Camo'd War Paint

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Infernal Reward Collection for a 25.00% chance of Clover Camo'd War Paint, one of 4 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Clover Camo'd War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Kill Covered War Paint

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Infernal Reward Collection for a 25.00% chance of Kill Covered War Paint, one of 4 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Kill Covered War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Pizza Polished War Paint

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Infernal Reward Collection for a 25.00% chance of Pizza Polished War Paint, one of 4 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Pizza Polished War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Bonk Varnished War Paint

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Infernal Reward Collection for a 33.33% chance of Bonk Varnished War Paint, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Bonk Varnished War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Dream Piped War Paint

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Infernal Reward Collection for a 33.33% chance of Dream Piped War Paint, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Dream Piped War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Freedom Wrapped War Paint

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Infernal Reward Collection for a 33.33% chance of Freedom Wrapped War Paint, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Freedom Wrapped War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Fire Glazed War Paint

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Infernal Reward Collection for a 100.00% chance of Fire Glazed War Paint, one of 1 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 50.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Fire Glazed War Paint trade-up odds →

How Infernal Reward Collection odds work

With ten Infernal Reward Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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