How are Unleash the Beast Cosmetic Collection trade-up odds calculated?

In a single-collection contract, every recorded item at the next rarity has an equal chance. In a mixed contract, each input contributes ten percent probability to its collection, then that collection share is divided equally among its possible outputs.

Can Strange and non-Strange items be mixed in one TF2 trade-up?

No. A contract must use either all Strange inputs or all non-Strange inputs. This page displays both markets separately.

TF2 collection guide · Live calculator data

Unleash the Beast Cosmetic Collection Trade-Up Guide

Unleash the Beast Cosmetic Collection contains 20 items across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade items include The Aztec Warrior, The Slithering Scarf. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

20Items

3Routes

CheckingPrice state

Data snapshot Tue, 08 Sep 2026 22:03:20 GMT

Container information · Series #108

Unleash the Beast Cosmetic Case

Unleash the Beast Cosmetic Case contains items from the Unleash the Beast Cosmetic Collection. The case was introduced on 2017-09-13. Requires a Unleash the Beast Cosmetic Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Unleash the Beast Cosmetic Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary10 items

80.00%

Commando5 items

16.00%

Assassin3 items

3.20%

Elite2 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade

Aloha Apparel
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
Battle Boonie
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
Commando Elite
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
Deity's Dress
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
Fat Man's Field Cap
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
Heavy Harness
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
Sharp Chest Pain
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
Siberian Tigerstripe
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
The Cammy Jammies
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
Vitals Vest
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

Commando Grade

Feathered Fiend
Commando · Chance: 3.20%
Pocket Saxton
Commando · Chance: 3.20%
The Conspicuous Camouflage
Commando · Chance: 3.20%
The Crit Cloak
Commando · Chance: 3.20%
The Hot Huaraches
Commando · Chance: 3.20%

Assassin Grade

Bananades
Assassin · Chance: 1.07%
Jungle Wreath
Assassin · Chance: 1.07%
Sacrificial Stone
Assassin · Chance: 1.07%

Elite Grade

The Aztec Warrior
Elite · Chance: 0.40%
The Slithering Scarf
Elite · Chance: 0.40%

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Unleash the Beast Cosmetic Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost31.10 ref

Expected valueIncomplete quotes

Expected P/LIncomplete quotes

ROIIncomplete quotes

Win chanceIncomplete quotes

Cheapest quoted inputFat Man's Field Cap3.11 ref each

Strange

strange

10× cost48.80 ref

Expected value37.62 ref

Expected P/L−11.18 ref

ROI-22.9%

Win chance20%

Cheapest quoted inputFat Man's Field Cap4.88 ref each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Aloha Apparel	43.22 ref	1 key + 41.11 ref
Battle Boonie	3.33 ref	No eligible quote
Commando Elite	3.11 ref	6.88 ref
Deity's Dress	6.11 ref	22.55 ref
Fat Man's Field Cap	3.11 ref	4.88 ref
Heavy Harness	3.11 ref	5.88 ref
Sharp Chest Pain	4.94 ref	No eligible quote
Siberian Tigerstripe	11.00 ref	30.44 ref
The Cammy Jammies	19.00 ref	55.77 ref
Vitals Vest	8.00 ref	19.55 ref

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid
Feathered Fiend	20.0%	4.66 ref	22.33 ref
Pocket Saxton	20.0%	No eligible quote	22.77 ref
The Conspicuous Camouflage	20.0%	21.55 ref	1 key + 5.44 ref
The Crit Cloak	20.0%	6.66 ref	25.88 ref
The Hot Huaraches	20.0%	18.11 ref	47.33 ref

Unleash the Beast Cosmetic Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost51.10 ref

Expected value37.55 ref

Expected P/L−13.55 ref

ROI-26.5%

Win chance33%

Cheapest quoted inputPocket Saxton5.11 ref each

Strange

strange

10× cost3 keys + 40.31 ref

Expected value3 keys + 25.66 ref

Expected P/L−14.65 ref

ROI-6.3%

Win chance33%

Cheapest quoted inputFeathered Fiend23.33 ref each

Eligible Commando inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Feathered Fiend	5.27 ref	23.33 ref
Pocket Saxton	5.11 ref	23.44 ref
The Conspicuous Camouflage	21.66 ref	1 key + 8.66 ref
The Crit Cloak	6.44 ref	29.77 ref
The Hot Huaraches	18.44 ref	48.77 ref

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid
Bananades	33.3%	29.11 ref	2 keys + 1.88 ref
Jungle Wreath	33.3%	1 key + 8.77 ref	7 keys + 2.66 ref
Sacrificial Stone	33.3%	10.44 ref	1 key + 8.11 ref

Unleash the Beast Cosmetic Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost1 key + 37.87 ref

Expected value1 key + 45.94 ref

Expected P/L+8.07 ref

ROI7.9%

Win chance50%

Cheapest quoted inputSacrificial Stone10.22 ref each

Strange

strange

10× cost11 keys + 56.77 ref

Expected value11 keys + 48.67 ref

Expected P/L−8.10 ref

ROI-1.1%

Win chance50%

Cheapest quoted inputSacrificial Stone1 key + 12.11 ref each

Eligible Assassin inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Bananades	29.66 ref	2 keys + 2.22 ref
Jungle Wreath	1 key + 10.00 ref	7 keys + 17.33 ref
Sacrificial Stone	10.22 ref	1 key + 12.11 ref

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid	Markets
The Aztec Warrior	50.0%	1 key + 12.11 ref	5 keys + 39.11 ref
The Slithering Scarf	50.0%	2 keys + 15.44 ref	17 keys + 58.22 ref

How to trade up to Unleash the Beast Cosmetic Collection items

How to trade up to Feathered Fiend

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Unleash the Beast Cosmetic Collection for a 20.00% chance of Feathered Fiend, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Feathered Fiend trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Pocket Saxton

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Unleash the Beast Cosmetic Collection for a 20.00% chance of Pocket Saxton, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Pocket Saxton trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Conspicuous Camouflage

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Unleash the Beast Cosmetic Collection for a 20.00% chance of The Conspicuous Camouflage, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Conspicuous Camouflage trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Crit Cloak

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Unleash the Beast Cosmetic Collection for a 20.00% chance of The Crit Cloak, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Crit Cloak trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Hot Huaraches

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Unleash the Beast Cosmetic Collection for a 20.00% chance of The Hot Huaraches, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Hot Huaraches trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Bananades

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Unleash the Beast Cosmetic Collection for a 33.33% chance of Bananades, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Bananades trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Jungle Wreath

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Unleash the Beast Cosmetic Collection for a 33.33% chance of Jungle Wreath, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Jungle Wreath trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Sacrificial Stone

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Unleash the Beast Cosmetic Collection for a 33.33% chance of Sacrificial Stone, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Sacrificial Stone trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Aztec Warrior

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Unleash the Beast Cosmetic Collection for a 50.00% chance of The Aztec Warrior, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Aztec Warrior trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Slithering Scarf

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Unleash the Beast Cosmetic Collection for a 50.00% chance of The Slithering Scarf, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Slithering Scarf trade-up odds →

How Unleash the Beast Cosmetic Collection odds work

With ten Unleash the Beast Cosmetic Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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