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TF2 collection guide · Saved market observations

Spectral Stash Collection Trade-Up Guide

Spectral Stash Collection contains 23 items across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade items include Fused Plates, Hellscape. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

23Items
3Routes
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Data snapshot . Loading the dataset does not recheck every listing; individual quotes can still be missing or stale.

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Spectral Stash Collection: choose your target tier

Start with the item you want, then choose the grade immediately below it. Spectral Stash Collection offers 3 adjacent-grade routes. Each row below assumes ten eligible inputs from this collection, with one result per contract; these are not case-opening probabilities.

10 Mercenary inputs → 1 Commando output

Choose among 10 input item names. Each of the 7 outputs has a 14.29% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 7.14% chance.

Commando targets

Compare Mercenary inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Commando inputs → 1 Assassin output

Choose among 7 input item names. Each of the 4 outputs has a 25.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 12.50% chance.

Assassin targets

Compare Commando inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Assassin inputs → 1 Elite output

Choose among 4 input item names. Each of the 2 outputs has a 50.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 25.00% chance.

Elite targets

Compare Assassin inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

Buying a higher-priced input in the same grade does not improve these single-collection odds. Price and quality still matter for cost: Strange and Non-Strange cannot be mixed. Read the odds guide or learn how expected profit differs from a guaranteed return.

Spectral Stash Case

Container information · Series #149

Spectral Stash Case

Spectral Stash Case contains items from the Spectral Stash Collection. The case was introduced on 2025-10-08. Requires a Spectral Stash Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Spectral Stash Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary10 items

80.00%

Commando7 items

16.00%

Assassin4 items

3.20%

Elite2 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade
  • Air Exchanger

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Feathered Foe

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Poncho del Pesado

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Professor Photon

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Seamann's Stubble

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Service Satchel

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Technician's Tunic

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • The Misdirector

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Torn Terror

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Viscera Visor

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

Commando Grade
  • El Gigante's Gunbelt

    Commando · Chance: 2.29%

  • Heat Shield

    Commando · Chance: 2.29%

  • Industrial Insurgent

    Commando · Chance: 2.29%

  • Mad Drip

    Commando · Chance: 2.29%

  • Pantaloons of Unabashed Villainy

    Commando · Chance: 2.29%

  • Ripped Runts

    Commando · Chance: 2.29%

  • Sleight of Hand

    Commando · Chance: 2.29%

Assassin Grade
  • Buzz Kill

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

  • Cigarillo Caballero

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

  • Vanishing Act

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

  • Velveteen Villain

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

Elite Grade
  • Fused Plates

    Elite · Chance: 0.40%

  • Hellscape

    Elite · Chance: 0.40%

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Spectral Stash Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost28.80 ref
Expected value22.82 ref
Expected P/L−5.98 ref
ROI-20.8%
Win chance29%
Cheapest quoted inputService Satchel2.88 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost51.10 ref
Expected value1 key + 5.62 ref
Expected P/L+18.85 ref
ROI36.9%
Win chance57%
Cheapest quoted inputViscera Visor5.11 ref each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Air Exchanger5.22 refChecks when viewed9.33 refChecks when viewed
Feathered FoeSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Poncho del PesadoSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed5.88 refChecks when viewed
Professor Photon3.00 refChecks when viewed5.88 refChecks when viewed
Seamann's Stubble8.11 refChecks when viewed18.22 refChecks when viewed
Service Satchel2.88 refChecks when viewed5.33 refChecks when viewed
Technician's TunicSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed9.77 refChecks when viewed
The Misdirector2.88 refChecks when viewed7.00 refChecks when viewed
Torn Terror3.72 refChecks when viewed13.33 refChecks when viewed
Viscera VisorSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed5.11 refChecks when viewed

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
El Gigante's Gunbelt14.3%8.66 refChecks when viewed29.55 refChecks when viewed
Heat Shield14.3%20.44 refChecks when viewed58.22 refChecks when viewed
Industrial Insurgent14.3%17.44 refChecks when viewed44.88 refChecks when viewed
Mad Drip14.3%40.55 refChecks when viewed2 keys + 37.00 refChecks when viewed
Pantaloons of Unabashed Villainy14.3%23.33 refChecks when viewed1 key + 4.66 refChecks when viewed
Ripped Runts14.3%38.55 refChecks when viewed1 key + 7.33 refChecks when viewed
Sleight of Hand14.3%10.77 refChecks when viewed50.66 refChecks when viewed

Spectral Stash Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost1 key + 21.17 ref
Expected value45.22 ref
Expected P/L−40.28 ref
ROI-47.1%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputEl Gigante's Gunbelt8.55 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost9 keys + 8.73 ref
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputSleight of Hand58.77 ref each

Eligible Commando inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
El Gigante's Gunbelt8.55 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Heat Shield24.22 refChecks when viewed62.88 refChecks when viewed
Industrial InsurgentSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Mad Drip41.44 refChecks when viewed2 keys + 57.11 refChecks when viewed
Pantaloons of Unabashed VillainySell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed1 key + 7.55 refChecks when viewed
Ripped Runts39.88 refChecks when viewed1 key + 18.00 refChecks when viewed
Sleight of Hand11.22 refChecks when viewed58.77 refChecks when viewed

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Buzz Kill25.0%53.55 refChecks when viewed1 key + 34.88 refChecks when viewed
Cigarillo Caballero25.0%36.33 refChecks when viewedBuy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed
Vanishing Act25.0%33.77 refChecks when viewed1 key + 27.44 refChecks when viewed
Velveteen Villain25.0%57.22 refChecks when viewed2 keys + 62.77 refChecks when viewed

Spectral Stash Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost5 keys + 37.15 ref
Expected value5 keys + 20.44 ref
Expected P/L−16.71 ref
ROI-4.7%
Win chance50%
Cheapest quoted inputVanishing Act35.88 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost17 keys + 7.39 ref
Expected value10 keys + 49.16 ref
Expected P/L−6 keys − 22.56 ref
ROI-37.1%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputVanishing Act1 key + 45.77 ref each

Eligible Assassin inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Buzz Kill55.77 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Cigarillo Caballero37.88 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Vanishing Act35.88 refChecks when viewed1 key + 45.77 refChecks when viewed
Velveteen Villain1 key + 0.55 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Fused Plates50.0%8 keys + 38.22 refChecks when viewed15 keys + 0.77 refChecks when viewed
Hellscape50.0%2 keys + 2.66 refChecks when viewed6 keys + 33.22 refChecks when viewed

How to trade up to Spectral Stash Collection items

How to trade up to El Gigante's Gunbelt

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Spectral Stash Collection for a 14.29% chance of El Gigante's Gunbelt, one of 7 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 7.14%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate El Gigante's Gunbelt trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Heat Shield

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Spectral Stash Collection for a 14.29% chance of Heat Shield, one of 7 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 7.14%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Heat Shield trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Industrial Insurgent

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Spectral Stash Collection for a 14.29% chance of Industrial Insurgent, one of 7 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 7.14%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Industrial Insurgent trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Mad Drip

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Spectral Stash Collection for a 14.29% chance of Mad Drip, one of 7 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 7.14%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Mad Drip trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Pantaloons of Unabashed Villainy

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Spectral Stash Collection for a 14.29% chance of Pantaloons of Unabashed Villainy, one of 7 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 7.14%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Pantaloons of Unabashed Villainy trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Ripped Runts

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Spectral Stash Collection for a 14.29% chance of Ripped Runts, one of 7 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 7.14%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Ripped Runts trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Sleight of Hand

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Spectral Stash Collection for a 14.29% chance of Sleight of Hand, one of 7 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 7.14%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Sleight of Hand trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Buzz Kill

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Spectral Stash Collection for a 25.00% chance of Buzz Kill, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Buzz Kill trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Cigarillo Caballero

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Spectral Stash Collection for a 25.00% chance of Cigarillo Caballero, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Cigarillo Caballero trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Vanishing Act

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Spectral Stash Collection for a 25.00% chance of Vanishing Act, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Vanishing Act trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Velveteen Villain

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Spectral Stash Collection for a 25.00% chance of Velveteen Villain, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Velveteen Villain trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Fused Plates

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Spectral Stash Collection for a 50.00% chance of Fused Plates, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Fused Plates trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Hellscape

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Spectral Stash Collection for a 50.00% chance of Hellscape, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Hellscape trade-up odds →

How Spectral Stash Collection odds work

With ten Spectral Stash Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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