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Spectral Stash Collection Trade-Up Guide

Spectral Stash Collection contains 23 items across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade items include Fused Plates, Hellscape. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

23Items
3Routes
CheckingPrice state
Data snapshot
Spectral Stash Case

Container information · Series #149

Spectral Stash Case

Spectral Stash Case contains items from the Spectral Stash Collection. The case was introduced on 2025-10-08. Requires a Spectral Stash Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Spectral Stash Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary10 items

80.00%

Commando7 items

16.00%

Assassin4 items

3.20%

Elite2 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade
  • Air Exchanger

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Feathered Foe

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Poncho del Pesado

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Professor Photon

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Seamann's Stubble

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Service Satchel

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Technician's Tunic

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • The Misdirector

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Torn Terror

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Viscera Visor

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

Commando Grade
  • El Gigante's Gunbelt

    Commando · Chance: 2.29%

  • Heat Shield

    Commando · Chance: 2.29%

  • Industrial Insurgent

    Commando · Chance: 2.29%

  • Mad Drip

    Commando · Chance: 2.29%

  • Pantaloons of Unabashed Villainy

    Commando · Chance: 2.29%

  • Ripped Runts

    Commando · Chance: 2.29%

  • Sleight of Hand

    Commando · Chance: 2.29%

Assassin Grade
  • Buzz Kill

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

  • Cigarillo Caballero

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

  • Vanishing Act

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

  • Velveteen Villain

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

Elite Grade
  • Fused Plates

    Elite · Chance: 0.40%

  • Hellscape

    Elite · Chance: 0.40%

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Spectral Stash Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost31.10 ref
Expected value24.92 ref
Expected P/L−6.18 ref
ROI-19.9%
Win chance29%
Cheapest quoted inputService Satchel3.11 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost53.30 ref
Expected value1 key + 0.73 ref
Expected P/L+11.76 ref
ROI22.1%
Win chance57%
Cheapest quoted inputPoncho del Pesado5.33 ref each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Air Exchanger5.11 ref10.33 ref
Feathered FoeNo eligible quoteNo eligible quote
Poncho del Pesado3.11 ref5.33 ref
Professor Photon3.11 ref6.33 ref
Seamann's Stubble7.55 ref22.66 ref
Service Satchel3.11 ref6.11 ref
Technician's Tunic7.66 ref13.55 ref
The Misdirector3.11 ref5.88 ref
Torn Terror4.44 ref12.22 ref
Viscera Visor3.11 refNo eligible quote

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
El Gigante's Gunbelt14.3%9.11 ref25.22 ref
Heat Shield14.3%22.11 ref54.00 ref
Industrial Insurgent14.3%20.33 ref44.55 ref
Mad Drip14.3%43.11 ref2 keys + 20.00 ref
Pantaloons of Unabashed Villainy14.3%25.77 ref1 key + 5.33 ref
Ripped Runts14.3%44.77 ref1 key + 0.55 ref
Sleight of Hand14.3%9.22 ref48.44 ref

Spectral Stash Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost1 key + 27.87 ref
Expected value49.25 ref
Expected P/L−42.95 ref
ROI-46.6%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputEl Gigante's Gunbelt9.22 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost5 keys + 52.15 ref
Expected value1 key + 28.89 ref
Expected P/L−4 keys − 23.26 ref
ROI-75.1%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputEl Gigante's Gunbelt37.38 ref each

Eligible Commando inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
El Gigante's Gunbelt9.22 ref37.38 ref
Heat Shield22.00 ref49.88 ref
Industrial Insurgent20.77 ref53.77 ref
Mad Drip46.66 refNo eligible quote
Pantaloons of Unabashed VillainyNo eligible quote1 key + 17.77 ref
Ripped Runts45.22 ref1 key + 31.16 ref
Sleight of HandNo eligible quote59.88 ref

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Buzz Kill25.0%57.88 ref1 key + 14.44 ref
Cigarillo Caballero25.0%38.44 ref1 key + 0.11 ref
Vanishing Act25.0%35.33 ref1 key + 24.22 ref
Velveteen Villain25.0%1 key + 1.00 ref2 keys + 12.44 ref

Spectral Stash Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost6 keys + 8.42 ref
Expected value5 keys + 27.94 ref
Expected P/L−44.81 ref
ROI-11.4%
Win chance50%
Cheapest quoted inputCigarillo Caballero39.44 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost13 keys + 29.21 ref
Expected value9 keys + 41.27 ref
Expected P/L−3 keys − 52.26 ref
ROI-28.3%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputBuzz Kill1 key + 22.22 ref each

Eligible Assassin inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Buzz Kill1 key + 13.22 ref1 key + 22.22 ref
Cigarillo Caballero39.44 refNo eligible quote
Vanishing ActNo eligible quoteNo eligible quote
Velveteen Villain1 key + 1.77 refNo eligible quote

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Fused Plates50.0%8 keys + 39.66 ref13 keys + 18.22 ref
Hellscape50.0%2 keys + 16.22 ref6 keys

How to trade up to Spectral Stash Collection items

How to trade up to El Gigante's Gunbelt

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Spectral Stash Collection for a 14.29% chance of El Gigante's Gunbelt, one of 7 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 7.14%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate El Gigante's Gunbelt trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Heat Shield

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Spectral Stash Collection for a 14.29% chance of Heat Shield, one of 7 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 7.14%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Heat Shield trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Industrial Insurgent

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Spectral Stash Collection for a 14.29% chance of Industrial Insurgent, one of 7 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 7.14%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Industrial Insurgent trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Mad Drip

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Spectral Stash Collection for a 14.29% chance of Mad Drip, one of 7 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 7.14%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Mad Drip trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Pantaloons of Unabashed Villainy

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Spectral Stash Collection for a 14.29% chance of Pantaloons of Unabashed Villainy, one of 7 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 7.14%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Pantaloons of Unabashed Villainy trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Ripped Runts

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Spectral Stash Collection for a 14.29% chance of Ripped Runts, one of 7 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 7.14%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Ripped Runts trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Sleight of Hand

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Spectral Stash Collection for a 14.29% chance of Sleight of Hand, one of 7 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 7.14%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Sleight of Hand trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Buzz Kill

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Spectral Stash Collection for a 25.00% chance of Buzz Kill, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Buzz Kill trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Cigarillo Caballero

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Spectral Stash Collection for a 25.00% chance of Cigarillo Caballero, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Cigarillo Caballero trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Vanishing Act

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Spectral Stash Collection for a 25.00% chance of Vanishing Act, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Vanishing Act trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Velveteen Villain

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Spectral Stash Collection for a 25.00% chance of Velveteen Villain, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Velveteen Villain trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Fused Plates

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Spectral Stash Collection for a 50.00% chance of Fused Plates, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Fused Plates trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Hellscape

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Spectral Stash Collection for a 50.00% chance of Hellscape, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Hellscape trade-up odds →

How Spectral Stash Collection odds work

With ten Spectral Stash Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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