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Tough Break Cosmetics Collection Trade-Up Guide

Tough Break Cosmetics Collection contains 15 items across 3 grades, from Mercenary to Assassin. Its highest-grade item is A Well Wrapped Hat. Compare the Commando-to-Assassin trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Assassin output.

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Tough Break Cosmetic Case

Container information · Series #101

Tough Break Cosmetic Case

Tough Break Cosmetic Case contains items from the Tough Break Cosmetics Collection. The case was introduced on 2015-12-14. Requires a Tough Break Cosmetic Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Tough Break Cosmetics Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

This collection does not contain the four grades required by the assumed opening model, so case-opening odds are not estimated. See the trade-up tiers below for applicable output odds.

Grades in this collection

Mercenary10 items
Commando4 items
Assassin1 items

Collection item list

Mercenary Grade
  • A Hat to Kill For

    Mercenary

  • Berlin Brain Bowl

    Mercenary

  • Bunnyhopper's Ballistics Vest

    Mercenary

  • Chicago Overcoat

    Mercenary

  • Hot Heels

    Mercenary

  • Medical Monarch

    Mercenary

  • Shin Shredders

    Mercenary

  • Siberian Sweater

    Mercenary

  • The Diplomat

    Mercenary

  • The Patriot Peak

    Mercenary

Commando Grade
  • Bonk Batter's Backup

    Commando

  • The Chill Chullo

    Commando

  • The Gift Bringer

    Commando

  • Winter Backup

    Commando

Assassin Grade
  • A Well Wrapped Hat

    Assassin

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Tough Break Cosmetics Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost46.60 ref
Expected value10.94 ref
Expected P/L−35.66 ref
ROI-76.5%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputSiberian Sweater4.66 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost1 key + 57.87 ref
Expected value32.55 ref
Expected P/L−1 key − 25.32 ref
ROI-73.4%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputSiberian Sweater12.22 ref each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
A Hat to Kill For21.44 ref35.77 ref
Berlin Brain Bowl8.44 ref19.22 ref
Bunnyhopper's Ballistics Vest7.77 ref17.33 ref
Chicago Overcoat11.00 ref26.33 ref
Hot Heels6.44 refNo eligible quote
Medical Monarch7.00 ref36.11 ref
Shin Shredders27.44 ref40.88 ref
Siberian Sweater4.66 ref12.22 ref
The Diplomat25.44 ref39.33 ref
The Patriot Peak30.00 ref60.77 ref

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Bonk Batter's Backup25.0%5.00 ref15.00 ref
The Chill Chullo25.0%4.55 ref13.55 ref
The Gift Bringer25.0%30.00 ref1 key + 21.66 ref
Winter Backup25.0%4.22 ref15.66 ref

Tough Break Cosmetics Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost43.30 ref
Expected value4.77 ref
Expected P/L−38.53 ref
ROI-89.0%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputWinter Backup4.33 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost2 keys + 10.14 ref
Expected value11.88 ref
Expected P/L−1 key − 62.59 ref
ROI-91.4%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputThe Chill Chullo13.88 ref each

Eligible Commando inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Bonk Batter's Backup5.11 ref15.22 ref
The Chill Chullo4.66 ref13.88 ref
The Gift Bringer30.00 ref1 key + 27.22 ref
Winter Backup4.33 ref16.44 ref

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
A Well Wrapped Hat100.0%4.77 ref11.88 ref

How to trade up to Tough Break Cosmetics Collection items

How to trade up to Bonk Batter's Backup

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Tough Break Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of Bonk Batter's Backup, one of 4 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Bonk Batter's Backup trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Chill Chullo

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Tough Break Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of The Chill Chullo, one of 4 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Chill Chullo trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Gift Bringer

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Tough Break Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of The Gift Bringer, one of 4 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Gift Bringer trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Winter Backup

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Tough Break Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of Winter Backup, one of 4 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Winter Backup trade-up odds →

How to trade up to A Well Wrapped Hat

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Tough Break Cosmetics Collection for a 100.00% chance of A Well Wrapped Hat, one of 1 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 50.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate A Well Wrapped Hat trade-up odds →

How Tough Break Cosmetics Collection odds work

With ten Tough Break Cosmetics Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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