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TF2 collection guide · Saved market observations

Tough Break Cosmetics Collection Trade-Up Guide

Tough Break Cosmetics Collection contains 15 items across 3 grades, from Mercenary to Assassin. Its highest-grade item is A Well Wrapped Hat. Compare the Commando-to-Assassin trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Assassin output.

15Items
2Routes
LoadingDataset state
Data snapshot . Loading the dataset does not recheck every listing; individual quotes can still be missing or stale.

Steam pricing is temporarily paused. Prices use backpack.tf only.

Tough Break Cosmetics Collection: choose your target tier

Start with the item you want, then choose the grade immediately below it. Tough Break Cosmetics Collection offers 2 adjacent-grade routes. Each row below assumes ten eligible inputs from this collection, with one result per contract; these are not case-opening probabilities.

10 Mercenary inputs → 1 Commando output

Choose among 10 input item names. Each of the 4 outputs has a 25.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 12.50% chance.

Commando targets

Compare Mercenary inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Commando inputs → 1 Assassin output

Choose among 4 input item names. Each of the 1 outputs has a 100.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 50.00% chance.

Assassin targets

Compare Commando inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

Buying a higher-priced input in the same grade does not improve these single-collection odds. Price and quality still matter for cost: Strange and Non-Strange cannot be mixed. Read the odds guide or learn how expected profit differs from a guaranteed return.

Tough Break Cosmetic Case

Container information · Series #101

Tough Break Cosmetic Case

Tough Break Cosmetic Case contains items from the Tough Break Cosmetics Collection. The case was introduced on 2015-12-14. Requires a Tough Break Cosmetic Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Tough Break Cosmetics Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

This collection does not contain the four grades required by the assumed opening model, so case-opening odds are not estimated. See the trade-up tiers below for applicable output odds.

Grades in this collection

Mercenary10 items
Commando4 items
Assassin1 items

Collection item list

Mercenary Grade
  • A Hat to Kill For

    Mercenary

  • Berlin Brain Bowl

    Mercenary

  • Bunnyhopper's Ballistics Vest

    Mercenary

  • Chicago Overcoat

    Mercenary

  • Hot Heels

    Mercenary

  • Medical Monarch

    Mercenary

  • Shin Shredders

    Mercenary

  • Siberian Sweater

    Mercenary

  • The Diplomat

    Mercenary

  • The Patriot Peak

    Mercenary

Commando Grade
  • Bonk Batter's Backup

    Commando

  • The Chill Chullo

    Commando

  • The Gift Bringer

    Commando

  • Winter Backup

    Commando

Assassin Grade
  • A Well Wrapped Hat

    Assassin

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Tough Break Cosmetics Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost38.80 ref
Expected value11.15 ref
Expected P/L−27.65 ref
ROI-71.3%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputSiberian Sweater3.88 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost1 key + 35.67 ref
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputSiberian Sweater10.00 ref each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
A Hat to Kill For16.44 refChecks when viewed34.33 refChecks when viewed
Berlin Brain Bowl7.55 refChecks when viewed16.11 refChecks when viewed
Bunnyhopper's Ballistics Vest7.83 refChecks when viewed14.66 refChecks when viewed
Chicago Overcoat10.77 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Hot Heels5.55 refChecks when viewed16.55 refChecks when viewed
Medical Monarch6.88 refChecks when viewed20.88 refChecks when viewed
Shin Shredders16.00 refChecks when viewed32.22 refChecks when viewed
Siberian Sweater3.88 refChecks when viewed10.00 refChecks when viewed
The Diplomat18.77 refChecks when viewed43.00 refChecks when viewed
The Patriot Peak26.11 refChecks when viewed49.88 refChecks when viewed

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Bonk Batter's Backup25.0%3.88 refChecks when viewed18.00 refChecks when viewed
The Chill Chullo25.0%3.77 refChecks when viewedBuy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed
The Gift Bringer25.0%33.33 refChecks when viewed1 key + 22.55 refChecks when viewed
Winter Backup25.0%3.61 refChecks when viewed15.22 refChecks when viewed

Tough Break Cosmetics Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost40.00 ref
Expected value5.55 ref
Expected P/L−34.45 ref
ROI-86.1%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputBonk Batter's Backup4.00 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost2 keys + 3.54 ref
Expected value13.88 ref
Expected P/L−1 key − 53.99 ref
ROI-89.5%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputThe Chill Chullo13.22 ref each

Eligible Commando inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Bonk Batter's Backup4.00 refChecks when viewed18.11 refChecks when viewed
The Chill Chullo4.22 refChecks when viewed13.22 refChecks when viewed
The Gift Bringer33.33 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Winter Backup4.11 refChecks when viewed15.66 refChecks when viewed

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
A Well Wrapped Hat100.0%5.55 refChecks when viewed13.88 refChecks when viewed

How to trade up to Tough Break Cosmetics Collection items

How to trade up to Bonk Batter's Backup

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Tough Break Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of Bonk Batter's Backup, one of 4 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Bonk Batter's Backup trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Chill Chullo

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Tough Break Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of The Chill Chullo, one of 4 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Chill Chullo trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Gift Bringer

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Tough Break Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of The Gift Bringer, one of 4 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Gift Bringer trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Winter Backup

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Tough Break Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of Winter Backup, one of 4 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Winter Backup trade-up odds →

How to trade up to A Well Wrapped Hat

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Tough Break Cosmetics Collection for a 100.00% chance of A Well Wrapped Hat, one of 1 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 50.00%. The ten-input single-collection recipe guarantees the item type, not its selling price or a profit; the mixed recipe does not guarantee the item.

Calculate A Well Wrapped Hat trade-up odds →

How Tough Break Cosmetics Collection odds work

With ten Tough Break Cosmetics Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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