How are Quarantined Collection trade-up odds calculated?

In a single-collection contract, every recorded item at the next rarity has an equal chance. In a mixed contract, each input contributes ten percent probability to its collection, then that collection share is divided equally among its possible outputs.

Can Strange and non-Strange items be mixed in one TF2 trade-up?

No. A contract must use either all Strange inputs or all non-Strange inputs. This page displays both markets separately.

TF2 collection guide · Live calculator data

Quarantined Collection Trade-Up Calculator

Compare every eligible Quarantined Collection route using current acquisition asks, liquidation bids, exact output odds, expected value and Strange pricing. Prices are estimates—not a guarantee that ten listings are available at the displayed amount.

11Items

3Routes

CheckingPrice state

Data snapshot Fri, 04 Sep 2026 08:44:09 GMT

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Quarantined Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost4 keys + 1.48 ref

Expected value3 keys + 44.29 ref

Expected P/L−21.52 ref

Win chance33%

Cheapest quoted inputPhobos Filter25.88 ref each

Strange

strange

10× cost28 keys + 50.86 ref

Expected value26 keys + 36.18 ref

Expected P/L−2 keys − 14.68 ref

Win chance33%

Cheapest quoted inputPhobos Filter2 keys + 56.55 ref each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Final Frontiersman	33.00 ref	3 keys + 12.00 ref
Life Support System	28.00 ref	3 keys + 49.55 ref
Phobos Filter	25.88 ref	2 keys + 56.55 ref
Universal Translator	29.22 ref	3 keys + 30.88 ref

Possible Commando outputs

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid
Captain Space Mann	33.3%	1 key + 1.11 ref	6 keys + 53.22 ref
Rocket Operator	33.3%	1 key + 1.22 ref	6 keys + 36.11 ref
The Shooting Star	33.3%	9 keys + 1.88 ref	66 keys + 19.22 ref

Quarantined Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost10 keys + 43.30 ref

Expected value10 keys + 52.11 ref

Expected P/L+8.81 ref

Win chance50%

Cheapest quoted inputCaptain Space Mann1 key + 4.33 ref each

Strange

strange

10× cost84 keys + 10.38 ref

Expected valueIncomplete quotes

Expected P/LIncomplete quotes

Win chanceIncomplete quotes

Cheapest quoted inputRocket Operator8 keys + 26.77 ref each

Eligible Commando inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Captain Space Mann	1 key + 4.33 ref	8 keys + 45.00 ref
Rocket Operator	1 key + 4.33 ref	8 keys + 26.77 ref
The Shooting Star	9 keys + 56.77 ref	69 keys

Possible Assassin outputs

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid	Markets
Starduster	50%	5 keys + 25.33 ref	No eligible quote
The Giger Counter	50%	16 keys + 14.55 ref	71 keys + 15.11 ref

Quarantined Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost53 keys + 20.31 ref

Expected value33 keys + 46.44 ref

Expected P/L−19 keys − 38.20 ref

Win chance50%

Cheapest quoted inputStarduster5 keys + 21.33 ref each

Strange

strange

10× cost740 keys

Expected valueIncomplete quotes

Expected P/LIncomplete quotes

Win chanceIncomplete quotes

Cheapest quoted inputThe Giger Counter74 keys each

Eligible Assassin inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask	Markets
Starduster	5 keys + 21.33 ref	No eligible quote
The Giger Counter	17 keys + 29.55 ref	74 keys

Possible Elite outputs

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid	Markets
Corona Australis	50%	62 keys + 56.22 ref	167 keys + 16.88 ref
Sucker Slug	50%	4 keys + 36.66 ref	No eligible quote

How Quarantined Collection odds work

With ten Quarantined Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five Quarantined inputs therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.