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TF2 collection guide · Saved market observations

Quarantined Collection Trade-Up Guide

Quarantined Collection contains 11 items across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade items include Corona Australis, Sucker Slug. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

11Items
3Routes
LoadingDataset state
Data snapshot . Loading the dataset does not recheck every listing; individual quotes can still be missing or stale.

Steam pricing is temporarily paused. Prices use backpack.tf only.

Quarantined Collection: choose your target tier

Start with the item you want, then choose the grade immediately below it. Quarantined Collection offers 3 adjacent-grade routes. Each row below assumes ten eligible inputs from this collection, with one result per contract; these are not case-opening probabilities.

10 Mercenary inputs → 1 Commando output

Choose among 4 input item names. Each of the 3 outputs has a 33.33% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 16.67% chance.

Commando targets

Compare Mercenary inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Commando inputs → 1 Assassin output

Choose among 3 input item names. Each of the 2 outputs has a 50.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 25.00% chance.

Assassin targets

Compare Commando inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Assassin inputs → 1 Elite output

Choose among 2 input item names. Each of the 2 outputs has a 50.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 25.00% chance.

Elite targets

Compare Assassin inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

Buying a higher-priced input in the same grade does not improve these single-collection odds. Price and quality still matter for cost: Strange and Non-Strange cannot be mixed. Read the odds guide or learn how expected profit differs from a guaranteed return.

Quarantined Collection Case

Container information · Series #96

Quarantined Collection Case

An Invasion Community Update case containing the Quarantined Collection. Requires an Invasion Community Update Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Quarantined Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary4 items

80.00%

Commando3 items

16.00%

Assassin2 items

3.20%

Elite2 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade
  • Final Frontiersman

    Mercenary · Chance: 20.00%

  • Life Support System

    Mercenary · Chance: 20.00%

  • Phobos Filter

    Mercenary · Chance: 20.00%

  • Universal Translator

    Mercenary · Chance: 20.00%

Commando Grade
  • Captain Space Mann

    Commando · Chance: 5.33%

  • Rocket Operator

    Commando · Chance: 5.33%

  • The Shooting Star

    Commando · Chance: 5.33%

Assassin Grade
  • Starduster

    Assassin · Chance: 1.60%

  • The Giger Counter

    Assassin · Chance: 1.60%

Elite Grade
  • Corona Australis

    Elite · Chance: 0.40%

  • Sucker Slug

    Elite · Chance: 0.40%

Case-opening ROI · base-item estimate

Cost to open = case + 1 key. Uses the assumed grade odds above and non-Strange liquidation prices. Strange, Unusual and bonus drops are excluded; this is not an all-outcomes unboxing ROI.

An Invasion Community Update Key is required in-game. This model values that opening cost at one standard TF2 key as requested; actual key prices can differ.

Case priceAwaiting quote
Opening key · 1 key1 key
Total cost to openAwaiting quote
Expected item value1 key + 32.90 ref
Expected profit / lossIncomplete quotes
ROI · profit ÷ opening costIncomplete quotes

Outputs quoted: 11/11. Case: lowest observed eligible backpack.tf bot sell listing. Outputs: eligible bot buy orders.

No current case quote in this price mode. Only backpack.tf pricing is currently enabled.

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Quarantined Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost4 keys + 14.88 ref
Expected value3 keys + 37.92 ref
Expected P/L−41.29 ref
ROI-15.2%
Win chance33%
Cheapest quoted inputPhobos Filter27.22 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost30 keys + 5.50 ref
Expected value26 keys + 55.63 ref
Expected P/L−3 keys − 14.20 ref
ROI-10.7%
Win chance33%
Cheapest quoted inputLife Support System3 keys + 0.55 ref each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Final Frontiersman31.11 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Life Support System29.22 refChecks when viewed3 keys + 0.55 refChecks when viewed
Phobos Filter27.22 refChecks when viewed3 keys + 2.11 refChecks when viewed
Universal Translator31.22 refChecks when viewed3 keys + 62.66 refChecks when viewed

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Captain Space Mann33.3%1 key + 11.22 refChecks when viewed6 keys + 27.11 refChecks when viewed
Rocket Operator33.3%1 key + 7.66 refChecks when viewed6 keys + 8.11 refChecks when viewed
The Shooting Star33.3%8 keys + 30.55 refChecks when viewed68 keys + 3.00 refChecks when viewed

Quarantined Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost11 keys + 46.77 ref
Expected value9 keys + 48.55 ref
Expected P/L−1 key − 62.55 ref
ROI-16.8%
Win chance50%
Cheapest quoted inputRocket Operator1 key + 11.11 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost64 keys + 24.88 ref
Expected value46 keys + 25.78 ref
Expected P/L−17 keys − 63.44 ref
ROI-27.9%
Win chance50%
Cheapest quoted inputCaptain Space Mann6 keys + 28.22 ref each

Eligible Commando inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Captain Space Mann1 key + 12.33 refChecks when viewed6 keys + 28.22 refChecks when viewed
Rocket Operator1 key + 11.11 refChecks when viewed6 keys + 56.00 refChecks when viewed
The Shooting Star8 keys + 40.66 refChecks when viewed73 keys + 7.66 refChecks when viewed

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Starduster50.0%5 keys + 1.55 refChecks when viewed13 keys + 50.44 refChecks when viewed
The Giger Counter50.0%14 keys + 31.22 refChecks when viewed79 keys + 1.11 refChecks when viewed

Quarantined Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost51 keys + 1.17 ref
Expected value33 keys + 31.44 ref
Expected P/L−17 keys − 34.06 ref
ROI-34.4%
Win chance50%
Cheapest quoted inputStarduster5 keys + 6.55 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost147 keys + 44.09 ref
Expected value101 keys + 10.60 ref
Expected P/L−46 keys − 33.48 ref
ROI-31.5%
Win chance50%
Cheapest quoted inputStarduster14 keys + 49.44 ref each

Eligible Assassin inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Starduster5 keys + 6.55 refChecks when viewed14 keys + 49.44 refChecks when viewed
The Giger CounterSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed90 keys + 15.66 refChecks when viewed

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Corona Australis50.0%62 keys + 18.44 refChecks when viewed191 keys + 0.88 refChecks when viewed
Sucker Slug50.0%4 keys + 44.44 refChecks when viewed11 keys + 20.33 refChecks when viewed

How to trade up to Quarantined Collection items

How to trade up to Captain Space Mann

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Quarantined Collection for a 33.33% chance of Captain Space Mann, one of 3 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Captain Space Mann trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Rocket Operator

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Quarantined Collection for a 33.33% chance of Rocket Operator, one of 3 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Rocket Operator trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Shooting Star

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Quarantined Collection for a 33.33% chance of The Shooting Star, one of 3 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Shooting Star trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Starduster

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Quarantined Collection for a 50.00% chance of Starduster, one of 2 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Starduster trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Giger Counter

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Quarantined Collection for a 50.00% chance of The Giger Counter, one of 2 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Giger Counter trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Corona Australis

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Quarantined Collection for a 50.00% chance of Corona Australis, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Corona Australis trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Sucker Slug

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Quarantined Collection for a 50.00% chance of Sucker Slug, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Sucker Slug trade-up odds →

How Quarantined Collection odds work

With ten Quarantined Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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