T2TF2TradeUps.comOpen calculator

TF2 collection guide · Saved market observations

Scream Fortress XIV Collection Trade-Up Guide

Scream Fortress XIV Collection contains 11 War Paint designs across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade item is Sacred Slayer War Paint. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

11Items
3Routes
LoadingDataset state
Data snapshot . Loading the dataset does not recheck every listing; individual quotes can still be missing or stale.

Steam pricing is temporarily paused. Prices use backpack.tf only.

Scream Fortress XIV Collection: choose your target tier

Start with the item you want, then choose the grade immediately below it. Scream Fortress XIV Collection offers 3 adjacent-grade routes. Each row below assumes ten eligible inputs from this collection, with one result per contract; these are not case-opening probabilities.

10 Mercenary inputs → 1 Commando output

Choose among 5 input item names. Each of the 3 outputs has a 33.33% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 16.67% chance.

Commando targets

Compare Mercenary inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Commando inputs → 1 Assassin output

Choose among 3 input item names. Each of the 2 outputs has a 50.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 25.00% chance.

Assassin targets

Compare Commando inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Assassin inputs → 1 Elite output

Choose among 2 input item names. Each of the 1 outputs has a 100.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 50.00% chance.

Elite targets

Compare Assassin inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

Buying a higher-priced input in the same grade does not improve these single-collection odds. Price and quality still matter for cost: Strange and Non-Strange cannot be mixed, and this guide’s market comparison uses Factory New wear. Read the odds guide or learn how expected profit differs from a guaranteed return.

Scream Fortress XIV War Paint Case

Container information · Series #138

Scream Fortress XIV War Paint Case

Scream Fortress XIV War Paint Case contains items from the Scream Fortress XIV Collection. The case was introduced on 2022-10-03. Requires a Scream Fortress XIV War Paint Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Scream Fortress XIV Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary5 items

80.00%

Commando3 items

16.00%

Assassin2 items

3.20%

Elite1 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade
  • Cream Corned War Paint

    Mercenary · Chance: 16.00%

  • Health and Hell (Green) War Paint

    Mercenary · Chance: 16.00%

  • Health and Hell War Paint

    Mercenary · Chance: 16.00%

  • Hypergon War Paint

    Mercenary · Chance: 16.00%

  • Sunriser War Paint

    Mercenary · Chance: 16.00%

Commando Grade
  • Chilly Autumn War Paint

    Commando · Chance: 5.33%

  • Metalized Soul War Paint

    Commando · Chance: 5.33%

  • Pumpkin Plastered War Paint

    Commando · Chance: 5.33%

Assassin Grade
  • Bonzo Gnawed War Paint

    Assassin · Chance: 1.60%

  • Ghoul Blaster War Paint

    Assassin · Chance: 1.60%

Elite Grade
  • Sacred Slayer War Paint

    Elite · Chance: 0.80%

War Paint and decorated-weapon quotes must match both quality and wear. This guide compares Factory New only; select Minimal Wear, Field-Tested, Well-Worn or Battle Scarred in the calculator. Steam pricing is temporarily paused. Backpack.tf wear-specific coverage is limited; missing quotes remain unavailable. A collection’s output wear follows that collection’s inputs, not another collection’s wear.

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Scream Fortress XIV Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost2 keys + 17.94 ref
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputCream Corned War Paint14.66 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost71 keys + 54.47 ref
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputHealth and Hell War Paint7 keys + 11.88 ref each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Cream Corned War Paint14.66 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Health and Hell (Green) War PaintSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed21 keysChecks when viewed
Health and Hell War Paint30.00 refChecks when viewed7 keys + 11.88 refChecks when viewed
Hypergon War PaintSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Sunriser War PaintSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed13 keys + 50.00 refChecks when viewed

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Chilly Autumn War Paint33.3%13.11 refChecks when viewed4 keys + 48.00 refChecks when viewed
Metalized Soul War Paint33.3%25.11 refChecks when viewed8 keys + 59.33 refChecks when viewed
Pumpkin Plastered War Paint33.3%Buy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewedBuy order scan pendingChecks when viewed

Scream Fortress XIV Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost3 keys + 8.11 ref
Expected value2 keys + 29.44 ref
Expected P/L−43.00 ref
ROI-21.4%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputChilly Autumn War Paint20.11 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost78 keys + 0.86 ref
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputChilly Autumn War Paint7 keys + 51.55 ref each

Eligible Commando inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Chilly Autumn War Paint20.11 refChecks when viewed7 keys + 51.55 refChecks when viewed
Metalized Soul War Paint33.22 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Pumpkin Plastered War PaintSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Bonzo Gnawed War Paint50.0%2 keys + 10.88 refChecks when viewed27 keys + 12.16 refChecks when viewed
Ghoul Blaster War Paint50.0%2 keys + 48.00 refChecks when viewedBuy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed

Scream Fortress XIV Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost34 keys + 12.68 ref
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputGhoul Blaster War Paint3 keys + 27.00 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost362 keys + 60.14 ref
Expected value160 keys + 0.11 ref
Expected P/L−202 keys − 60.03 ref
ROI-55.9%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputBonzo Gnawed War Paint36 keys + 18.88 ref each

Eligible Assassin inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Bonzo Gnawed War PaintNo eligible sell listingChecks when viewed36 keys + 18.88 refChecks when viewed
Ghoul Blaster War Paint3 keys + 27.00 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Sacred Slayer War Paint100.0%Buy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed160 keys + 0.11 refChecks when viewed

How to trade up to Scream Fortress XIV Collection items

How to trade up to Chilly Autumn War Paint

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Scream Fortress XIV Collection for a 33.33% chance of Chilly Autumn War Paint, one of 3 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Chilly Autumn War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Metalized Soul War Paint

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Scream Fortress XIV Collection for a 33.33% chance of Metalized Soul War Paint, one of 3 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Metalized Soul War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Pumpkin Plastered War Paint

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Scream Fortress XIV Collection for a 33.33% chance of Pumpkin Plastered War Paint, one of 3 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Pumpkin Plastered War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Bonzo Gnawed War Paint

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Scream Fortress XIV Collection for a 50.00% chance of Bonzo Gnawed War Paint, one of 2 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Bonzo Gnawed War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Ghoul Blaster War Paint

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Scream Fortress XIV Collection for a 50.00% chance of Ghoul Blaster War Paint, one of 2 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Ghoul Blaster War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Sacred Slayer War Paint

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Scream Fortress XIV Collection for a 100.00% chance of Sacred Slayer War Paint, one of 1 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 50.00%. The ten-input single-collection recipe guarantees the item type, not its selling price or a profit; the mixed recipe does not guarantee the item.

Calculate Sacred Slayer War Paint trade-up odds →

How Scream Fortress XIV Collection odds work

With ten Scream Fortress XIV Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

Explore related TF2 collections

Contract Campaigner CollectionContract Campaigner Collection items & trade-up odds →Decorated War Hero CollectionDecorated War Hero Collection items & trade-up odds →Infernal Reward War Paint CaseInfernal Reward Collection items & trade-up odds →Jungle Jackpot War Paint CaseJungle Jackpot Collection items & trade-up odds →
Browse every TF2 collection

Anonymous action totals help improve this site. No visitor IDs are attached to those totals. Privacy details