How are Scream Fortress XIV Collection trade-up odds calculated?

In a single-collection contract, every recorded item at the next rarity has an equal chance. In a mixed contract, each input contributes ten percent probability to its collection, then that collection share is divided equally among its possible outputs.

Can Strange and non-Strange items be mixed in one TF2 trade-up?

No. A contract must use either all Strange inputs or all non-Strange inputs. This page displays both markets separately.

TF2 collection guide · Live calculator data

Scream Fortress XIV Collection Trade-Up Guide

Scream Fortress XIV Collection contains 11 War Paint designs across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade item is Sacred Slayer War Paint. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

11Items

3Routes

CheckingPrice state

Data snapshot Tue, 08 Sep 2026 22:02:47 GMT

Container information · Series #138

Scream Fortress XIV War Paint Case

Scream Fortress XIV War Paint Case contains items from the Scream Fortress XIV Collection. The case was introduced on 2022-10-03. Requires a Scream Fortress XIV War Paint Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Scream Fortress XIV Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary5 items

80.00%

Commando3 items

16.00%

Assassin2 items

3.20%

Elite1 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade

Cream Corned War Paint
Mercenary · Chance: 16.00%
Health and Hell (Green) War Paint
Mercenary · Chance: 16.00%
Health and Hell War Paint
Mercenary · Chance: 16.00%
Hypergon War Paint
Mercenary · Chance: 16.00%
Sunriser War Paint
Mercenary · Chance: 16.00%

Commando Grade

Chilly Autumn War Paint
Commando · Chance: 5.33%
Metalized Soul War Paint
Commando · Chance: 5.33%
Pumpkin Plastered War Paint
Commando · Chance: 5.33%

Assassin Grade

Bonzo Gnawed War Paint
Assassin · Chance: 1.60%
Ghoul Blaster War Paint
Assassin · Chance: 1.60%

Elite Grade

Sacred Slayer War Paint
Elite · Chance: 0.80%

War Paint and decorated-weapon quotes must match both quality and wear. This guide compares Factory New only; select Minimal Wear, Field-Tested, Well-Worn or Battle Scarred in the calculator. Steam USD is recommended because backpack.tf wear-specific coverage is limited. A collection’s output wear follows that collection’s inputs, not another collection’s wear.

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Scream Fortress XIV Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost$8.90

Expected value$0.94

Expected P/L−$7.96

ROI-89.5%

Win chance0%

Cheapest quoted inputCream Corned War Paint$0.89 each

Strange

strange

10× cost$81.20

Expected value$13.90

Expected P/L−$67.30

ROI-82.9%

Win chance0%

Cheapest quoted inputCream Corned War Paint$8.12 each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Cream Corned War Paint	$0.89	$8.12
Health and Hell (Green) War Paint	$2.83	$58.62
Health and Hell War Paint	$1.08	$18.35
Hypergon War Paint	No eligible quote	No eligible quote
Sunriser War Paint	$1.26	$36.80

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid
Chilly Autumn War Paint	33.3%	$0.71	$10.63
Metalized Soul War Paint	33.3%	$1.11	$18.18
Pumpkin Plastered War Paint	33.3%	$0.99	$12.88

Scream Fortress XIV Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost$14.40

Expected value$4.66

Expected P/L−$9.74

ROI-67.6%

Win chance0%

Cheapest quoted inputPumpkin Plastered War Paint$1.44 each

Strange

strange

10× cost$160.00

Expected value$57.13

Expected P/L−$102.87

ROI-64.3%

Win chance0%

Cheapest quoted inputChilly Autumn War Paint$16.00 each

Eligible Commando inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Chilly Autumn War Paint	$2.27	$16.00
Metalized Soul War Paint	$1.45	$57.27
Pumpkin Plastered War Paint	$1.44	$19.98

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid	Markets
Bonzo Gnawed War Paint	50.0%	$3.99	$56.55
Ghoul Blaster War Paint	50.0%	$5.33	$57.72

Scream Fortress XIV Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost$61.80

Expected value$18.19

Expected P/L−$43.61

ROI-70.6%

Win chance0%

Cheapest quoted inputBonzo Gnawed War Paint$6.18 each

Strange

strange

10× cost$927.60

Expected valueIncomplete quotes

Expected P/LIncomplete quotes

ROIIncomplete quotes

Win chanceIncomplete quotes

Cheapest quoted inputBonzo Gnawed War Paint$92.76 each

Eligible Assassin inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask	Markets
Bonzo Gnawed War Paint	$6.18	$92.76
Ghoul Blaster War Paint	$7.15	$102.55

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid	Markets
Sacred Slayer War Paint	100.0%	$18.19	No eligible quote

How to trade up to Scream Fortress XIV Collection items

How to trade up to Chilly Autumn War Paint

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Scream Fortress XIV Collection for a 33.33% chance of Chilly Autumn War Paint, one of 3 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Chilly Autumn War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Metalized Soul War Paint

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Scream Fortress XIV Collection for a 33.33% chance of Metalized Soul War Paint, one of 3 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Metalized Soul War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Pumpkin Plastered War Paint

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Scream Fortress XIV Collection for a 33.33% chance of Pumpkin Plastered War Paint, one of 3 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Pumpkin Plastered War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Bonzo Gnawed War Paint

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Scream Fortress XIV Collection for a 50.00% chance of Bonzo Gnawed War Paint, one of 2 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Bonzo Gnawed War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Ghoul Blaster War Paint

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Scream Fortress XIV Collection for a 50.00% chance of Ghoul Blaster War Paint, one of 2 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Ghoul Blaster War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Sacred Slayer War Paint

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Scream Fortress XIV Collection for a 100.00% chance of Sacred Slayer War Paint, one of 1 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 50.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Sacred Slayer War Paint trade-up odds →

How Scream Fortress XIV Collection odds work

With ten Scream Fortress XIV Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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