How are Summer 2023 Cosmetics Collection trade-up odds calculated?

In a single-collection contract, every recorded item at the next rarity has an equal chance. In a mixed contract, each input contributes ten percent probability to its collection, then that collection share is divided equally among its possible outputs.

Can Strange and non-Strange items be mixed in one TF2 trade-up?

No. A contract must use either all Strange inputs or all non-Strange inputs. This page displays both markets separately.

TF2 collection guide · Live calculator data

Summer 2023 Cosmetics Collection Trade-Up Guide

Summer 2023 Cosmetics Collection contains 25 items across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade items include Cranium Cooler, Full Metal Helmet. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

25Items

3Routes

CheckingPrice state

Data snapshot Tue, 08 Sep 2026 22:02:47 GMT

Container information · Series #140

Summer 2023 Cosmetic Case

Summer 2023 Cosmetic Case contains items from the Summer 2023 Cosmetics Collection. The case was introduced on 2023-07-12. Requires a Summer 2023 Cosmetic Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Summer 2023 Cosmetics Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary10 items

80.00%

Commando8 items

16.00%

Assassin5 items

3.20%

Elite2 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade

Brimmed Bootlegger
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
Brothers in Blues
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
Cargo Constructor
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
Heavy Metal
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
Le Professionnel
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
Medical Emergency
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
Stealth Bomber
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
The Blast Bowl
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
The Bushman
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
The Firestalker
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

Commando Grade

Cleaner's Cap
Commando · Chance: 2.00%
Close Quarters Cover
Commando · Chance: 2.00%
Hazard Handler
Commando · Chance: 2.00%
Hog Heels
Commando · Chance: 2.00%
Preventative Measure
Commando · Chance: 2.00%
Prohibition Opposition
Commando · Chance: 2.00%
The Shrapnel Shell
Commando · Chance: 2.00%
The Soho Sleuth
Commando · Chance: 2.00%

Assassin Grade

Brother Mann
Assassin · Chance: 0.64%
Cranium Cover
Assassin · Chance: 0.64%
The Flame Warrior
Assassin · Chance: 0.64%
The Glorious Gambeson
Assassin · Chance: 0.64%
Über-Wear
Assassin · Chance: 0.64%

Elite Grade

Cranium Cooler
Elite · Chance: 0.40%
Full Metal Helmet
Elite · Chance: 0.40%

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Summer 2023 Cosmetics Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost31.10 ref

Expected value22.93 ref

Expected P/L−8.17 ref

ROI-26.3%

Win chance25%

Cheapest quoted inputThe Firestalker3.11 ref each

Strange

strange

10× cost51.10 ref

Expected value46.94 ref

Expected P/L−4.16 ref

ROI-8.1%

Win chance38%

Cheapest quoted inputThe Blast Bowl5.11 ref each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Brimmed Bootlegger	3.11 ref	6.00 ref
Brothers in Blues	6.77 ref	14.77 ref
Cargo Constructor	5.88 ref	11.55 ref
Heavy Metal	3.66 ref	8.55 ref
Le Professionnel	11.55 ref	29.44 ref
Medical Emergency	3.11 ref	7.33 ref
Stealth Bomber	6.11 ref	12.77 ref
The Blast Bowl	3.11 ref	5.11 ref
The Bushman	8.61 ref	17.11 ref
The Firestalker	3.11 ref	6.00 ref

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid
Cleaner's Cap	12.5%	10.00 ref	23.00 ref
Close Quarters Cover	12.5%	44.11 ref	1 key + 8.88 ref
Hazard Handler	12.5%	14.33 ref	33.44 ref
Hog Heels	12.5%	27.33 ref	1 key + 1.66 ref
Preventative Measure	12.5%	10.55 ref	22.66 ref
Prohibition Opposition	12.5%	38.00 ref	1 key + 17.77 ref
The Shrapnel Shell	12.5%	15.00 ref	30.33 ref
The Soho Sleuth	12.5%	24.11 ref	44.77 ref

Summer 2023 Cosmetics Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost1 key + 40.07 ref

Expected valueIncomplete quotes

Expected P/LIncomplete quotes

ROIIncomplete quotes

Win chanceIncomplete quotes

Cheapest quoted inputCleaner's Cap10.44 ref each

Strange

strange

10× cost3 keys + 38.11 ref

Expected valueIncomplete quotes

Expected P/LIncomplete quotes

ROIIncomplete quotes

Win chanceIncomplete quotes

Cheapest quoted inputPreventative Measure23.11 ref each

Eligible Commando inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Cleaner's Cap	10.44 ref	35.88 ref
Close Quarters Cover	No eligible quote	1 key + 14.22 ref
Hazard Handler	14.44 ref	35.55 ref
Hog Heels	27.44 ref	1 key + 1.88 ref
Preventative Measure	10.77 ref	23.11 ref
Prohibition Opposition	42.11 ref	1 key + 28.77 ref
The Shrapnel Shell	15.55 ref	No eligible quote
The Soho Sleuth	No eligible quote	49.44 ref

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid
Brother Mann	20.0%	1 key + 34.00 ref	5 keys + 39.11 ref
Cranium Cover	20.0%	14.66 ref	49.22 ref
The Flame Warrior	20.0%	1 key + 5.88 ref	2 keys + 0.88 ref
The Glorious Gambeson	20.0%	16.22 ref	53.44 ref
Über-Wear	20.0%	No eligible quote	No eligible quote

Summer 2023 Cosmetics Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost2 keys + 36.34 ref

Expected value1 key + 44.77 ref

Expected P/L−55.90 ref

ROI-33.9%

Win chance50%

Cheapest quoted inputCranium Cover16.50 ref each

Strange

strange

10× cost7 keys + 52.99 ref

Expected value4 keys + 10.00 ref

Expected P/L−3 keys − 42.99 ref

ROI-46.9%

Win chance0%

Cheapest quoted inputCranium Cover50.33 ref each

Eligible Assassin inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Brother Mann	1 key + 35.00 ref	6 keys + 13.88 ref
Cranium Cover	16.50 ref	50.33 ref
The Flame Warrior	1 key + 5.55 ref	2 keys + 7.44 ref
The Glorious Gambeson	18.66 ref	54.33 ref
Über-Wear	No eligible quote	No eligible quote

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid	Markets
Cranium Cooler	50.0%	19.66 ref	1 key + 2.22 ref
Full Metal Helmet	50.0%	3 keys + 5.55 ref	7 keys + 17.77 ref

How to trade up to Summer 2023 Cosmetics Collection items

How to trade up to Cleaner's Cap

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2023 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Cleaner's Cap, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Cleaner's Cap trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Close Quarters Cover

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2023 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Close Quarters Cover, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Close Quarters Cover trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Hazard Handler

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2023 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Hazard Handler, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Hazard Handler trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Hog Heels

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2023 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Hog Heels, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Hog Heels trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Preventative Measure

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2023 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Preventative Measure, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Preventative Measure trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Prohibition Opposition

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2023 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Prohibition Opposition, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Prohibition Opposition trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Shrapnel Shell

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2023 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of The Shrapnel Shell, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Shrapnel Shell trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Soho Sleuth

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2023 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of The Soho Sleuth, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Soho Sleuth trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Brother Mann

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Summer 2023 Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of Brother Mann, one of 5 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Brother Mann trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Cranium Cover

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Summer 2023 Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of Cranium Cover, one of 5 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Cranium Cover trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Flame Warrior

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Summer 2023 Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of The Flame Warrior, one of 5 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Flame Warrior trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Glorious Gambeson

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Summer 2023 Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of The Glorious Gambeson, one of 5 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Glorious Gambeson trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Über-Wear

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Summer 2023 Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of Über-Wear, one of 5 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Über-Wear trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Cranium Cooler

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Summer 2023 Cosmetics Collection for a 50.00% chance of Cranium Cooler, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Cranium Cooler trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Full Metal Helmet

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Summer 2023 Cosmetics Collection for a 50.00% chance of Full Metal Helmet, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Full Metal Helmet trade-up odds →

How Summer 2023 Cosmetics Collection odds work

With ten Summer 2023 Cosmetics Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

Explore related TF2 collections

Abominable Cosmetic Collection items & trade-up odds →

Blue Moon Cosmetics Collection items & trade-up odds →

Bone-Chilling Bonanza Collection items & trade-up odds →

Confidential Collection items & trade-up odds →

Browse every TF2 collection