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TF2 collection guide · Saved market observations

Summer 2023 Cosmetics Collection Trade-Up Guide

Summer 2023 Cosmetics Collection contains 25 items across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade items include Cranium Cooler, Full Metal Helmet. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

25Items
3Routes
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Data snapshot . Loading the dataset does not recheck every listing; individual quotes can still be missing or stale.

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Summer 2023 Cosmetics Collection: choose your target tier

Start with the item you want, then choose the grade immediately below it. Summer 2023 Cosmetics Collection offers 3 adjacent-grade routes. Each row below assumes ten eligible inputs from this collection, with one result per contract; these are not case-opening probabilities.

10 Mercenary inputs → 1 Commando output

Choose among 10 input item names. Each of the 8 outputs has a 12.50% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 6.25% chance.

Commando targets

Compare Mercenary inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Commando inputs → 1 Assassin output

Choose among 8 input item names. Each of the 5 outputs has a 20.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 10.00% chance.

Assassin targets

Compare Commando inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Assassin inputs → 1 Elite output

Choose among 5 input item names. Each of the 2 outputs has a 50.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 25.00% chance.

Elite targets

Compare Assassin inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

Buying a higher-priced input in the same grade does not improve these single-collection odds. Price and quality still matter for cost: Strange and Non-Strange cannot be mixed. Read the odds guide or learn how expected profit differs from a guaranteed return.

Summer 2023 Cosmetic Case

Container information · Series #140

Summer 2023 Cosmetic Case

Summer 2023 Cosmetic Case contains items from the Summer 2023 Cosmetics Collection. The case was introduced on 2023-07-12. Requires a Summer 2023 Cosmetic Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Summer 2023 Cosmetics Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary10 items

80.00%

Commando8 items

16.00%

Assassin5 items

3.20%

Elite2 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade
  • Brimmed Bootlegger

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Brothers in Blues

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Cargo Constructor

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Heavy Metal

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Le Professionnel

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Medical Emergency

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Stealth Bomber

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • The Blast Bowl

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • The Bushman

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • The Firestalker

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

Commando Grade
  • Cleaner's Cap

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

  • Close Quarters Cover

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

  • Hazard Handler

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

  • Hog Heels

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

  • Preventative Measure

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

  • Prohibition Opposition

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

  • The Shrapnel Shell

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

  • The Soho Sleuth

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

Assassin Grade
  • Brother Mann

    Assassin · Chance: 0.64%

  • Cranium Cover

    Assassin · Chance: 0.64%

  • The Flame Warrior

    Assassin · Chance: 0.64%

  • The Glorious Gambeson

    Assassin · Chance: 0.64%

  • Über-Wear

    Assassin · Chance: 0.64%

Elite Grade
  • Cranium Cooler

    Elite · Chance: 0.40%

  • Full Metal Helmet

    Elite · Chance: 0.40%

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Summer 2023 Cosmetics Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost30.00 ref
Expected value18.56 ref
Expected P/L−11.44 ref
ROI-38.1%
Win chance25%
Cheapest quoted inputThe Firestalker3.00 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost41.10 ref
Expected value48.61 ref
Expected P/L+7.51 ref
ROI18.3%
Win chance50%
Cheapest quoted inputThe Blast Bowl4.11 ref each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Brimmed BootleggerSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Brothers in Blues5.22 refChecks when viewed11.44 refChecks when viewed
Cargo Constructor5.55 refChecks when viewed14.22 refChecks when viewed
Heavy Metal3.33 refChecks when viewed7.61 refChecks when viewed
Le Professionnel10.22 refChecks when viewed27.88 refChecks when viewed
Medical Emergency3.11 refChecks when viewed5.77 refChecks when viewed
Stealth Bomber4.33 refChecks when viewed11.11 refChecks when viewed
The Blast BowlSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed4.11 refChecks when viewed
The Bushman6.11 refChecks when viewed16.44 refChecks when viewed
The Firestalker3.00 refChecks when viewed6.11 refChecks when viewed

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Cleaner's Cap12.5%7.77 refChecks when viewed27.22 refChecks when viewed
Close Quarters Cover12.5%35.88 refChecks when viewed1 key + 19.44 refChecks when viewed
Hazard Handler12.5%12.33 refChecks when viewed31.00 refChecks when viewed
Hog Heels12.5%21.88 refChecks when viewed51.44 refChecks when viewed
Preventative Measure12.5%8.33 refChecks when viewed24.33 refChecks when viewed
Prohibition Opposition12.5%30.66 refChecks when viewed1 key + 23.44 refChecks when viewed
The Shrapnel Shell12.5%11.00 refChecks when viewed33.66 refChecks when viewed
The Soho Sleuth12.5%20.66 refChecks when viewed49.66 refChecks when viewed

Summer 2023 Cosmetics Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost1 key + 13.37 ref
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputCleaner's Cap7.77 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost3 keys + 55.81 ref
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputPreventative Measure24.88 ref each

Eligible Commando inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Cleaner's Cap7.77 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Close Quarters Cover36.22 refChecks when viewed1 key + 25.00 refChecks when viewed
Hazard Handler13.00 refChecks when viewed35.88 refChecks when viewed
Hog Heels22.44 refChecks when viewed54.11 refChecks when viewed
Preventative Measure9.11 refChecks when viewed24.88 refChecks when viewed
Prohibition Opposition30.66 refChecks when viewed1 key + 36.44 refChecks when viewed
The Shrapnel Shell12.66 refChecks when viewed1 key + 0.11 refChecks when viewed
The Soho Sleuth21.00 refChecks when viewed50.66 refChecks when viewed

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Brother Mann20.0%1 key + 28.44 refChecks when viewed4 keys + 53.77 refChecks when viewed
Cranium Cover20.0%13.44 refChecks when viewed50.11 refChecks when viewed
The Flame Warrior20.0%1 key + 6.22 refChecks when viewed2 keys + 32.44 refChecks when viewed
The Glorious Gambeson20.0%13.33 refChecks when viewed52.11 refChecks when viewed
Über-Wear20.0%Buy order scan pendingChecks when viewedBuy order scan pendingChecks when viewed

Summer 2023 Cosmetics Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost2 keys + 5.74 ref
Expected value1 key + 47.05 ref
Expected P/L−23.02 ref
ROI-17.1%
Win chance50%
Cheapest quoted inputThe Glorious Gambeson13.44 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost8 keys + 10.86 ref
Expected value4 keys + 1.88 ref
Expected P/L−4 keys − 8.98 ref
ROI-50.7%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputThe Glorious Gambeson52.55 ref each

Eligible Assassin inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Brother Mann1 key + 31.44 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Cranium Cover13.55 refChecks when viewed52.88 refChecks when viewed
The Flame Warrior1 key + 6.55 refChecks when viewed3 keys + 26.00 refChecks when viewed
The Glorious Gambeson13.44 refChecks when viewed52.55 refChecks when viewed
Über-WearSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Cranium Cooler50.0%19.00 refChecks when viewed63.66 refChecks when viewed
Full Metal Helmet50.0%3 keys + 10.77 refChecks when viewed7 keys + 4.44 refChecks when viewed

How to trade up to Summer 2023 Cosmetics Collection items

How to trade up to Cleaner's Cap

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2023 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Cleaner's Cap, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Cleaner's Cap trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Close Quarters Cover

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2023 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Close Quarters Cover, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Close Quarters Cover trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Hazard Handler

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2023 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Hazard Handler, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Hazard Handler trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Hog Heels

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2023 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Hog Heels, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Hog Heels trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Preventative Measure

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2023 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Preventative Measure, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Preventative Measure trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Prohibition Opposition

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2023 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Prohibition Opposition, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Prohibition Opposition trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Shrapnel Shell

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2023 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of The Shrapnel Shell, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Shrapnel Shell trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Soho Sleuth

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2023 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of The Soho Sleuth, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Soho Sleuth trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Brother Mann

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Summer 2023 Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of Brother Mann, one of 5 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Brother Mann trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Cranium Cover

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Summer 2023 Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of Cranium Cover, one of 5 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Cranium Cover trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Flame Warrior

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Summer 2023 Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of The Flame Warrior, one of 5 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Flame Warrior trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Glorious Gambeson

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Summer 2023 Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of The Glorious Gambeson, one of 5 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Glorious Gambeson trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Über-Wear

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Summer 2023 Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of Über-Wear, one of 5 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Über-Wear trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Cranium Cooler

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Summer 2023 Cosmetics Collection for a 50.00% chance of Cranium Cooler, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Cranium Cooler trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Full Metal Helmet

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Summer 2023 Cosmetics Collection for a 50.00% chance of Full Metal Helmet, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Full Metal Helmet trade-up odds →

How Summer 2023 Cosmetics Collection odds work

With ten Summer 2023 Cosmetics Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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