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TF2 collection guide · Saved market observations

Mayflower Cosmetics Collection Trade-Up Guide

Mayflower Cosmetics Collection contains 14 items across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade items include Bedouin Bandana, The Dead Head. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

14Items
3Routes
LoadingDataset state
Data snapshot . Loading the dataset does not recheck every listing; individual quotes can still be missing or stale.

Steam pricing is temporarily paused. Prices use backpack.tf only.

Mayflower Cosmetics Collection: choose your target tier

Start with the item you want, then choose the grade immediately below it. Mayflower Cosmetics Collection offers 3 adjacent-grade routes. Each row below assumes ten eligible inputs from this collection, with one result per contract; these are not case-opening probabilities.

10 Mercenary inputs → 1 Commando output

Choose among 6 input item names. Each of the 4 outputs has a 25.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 12.50% chance.

Commando targets

Compare Mercenary inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Commando inputs → 1 Assassin output

Choose among 4 input item names. Each of the 2 outputs has a 50.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 25.00% chance.

Assassin targets

Compare Commando inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Assassin inputs → 1 Elite output

Choose among 2 input item names. Each of the 2 outputs has a 50.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 25.00% chance.

Elite targets

Compare Assassin inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

Buying a higher-priced input in the same grade does not improve these single-collection odds. Price and quality still matter for cost: Strange and Non-Strange cannot be mixed. Read the odds guide or learn how expected profit differs from a guaranteed return.

Mayflower Cosmetic Case

Container information · Series #102

Mayflower Cosmetic Case

Mayflower Cosmetic Case contains items from the Mayflower Cosmetics Collection. The case was introduced on 2016-05-10. Requires a Mayflower Cosmetic Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Mayflower Cosmetics Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary6 items

80.00%

Commando4 items

16.00%

Assassin2 items

3.20%

Elite2 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade
  • Courtly Cuirass

    Mercenary · Chance: 13.33%

  • Squire's Sabatons

    Mercenary · Chance: 13.33%

  • The Airdog

    Mercenary · Chance: 13.33%

  • The Demo's Dustcatcher

    Mercenary · Chance: 13.33%

  • The Scoped Spartan

    Mercenary · Chance: 13.33%

  • The Surgical Survivalist

    Mercenary · Chance: 13.33%

Commando Grade
  • Herald's Helm

    Commando · Chance: 4.00%

  • The Gauzed Gaze

    Commando · Chance: 4.00%

  • The Lurking Legionnaire

    Commando · Chance: 4.00%

  • The Patriot's Pouches

    Commando · Chance: 4.00%

Assassin Grade
  • Dad Duds

    Assassin · Chance: 1.60%

  • The Dayjogger

    Assassin · Chance: 1.60%

Elite Grade
  • Bedouin Bandana

    Elite · Chance: 0.40%

  • The Dead Head

    Elite · Chance: 0.40%

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Mayflower Cosmetics Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost28.80 ref
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputThe Airdog2.88 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost28.80 ref
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputThe Airdog2.88 ref each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Courtly Cuirass2.88 refChecks when viewed3.44 refChecks when viewed
Squire's Sabatons3.00 refChecks when viewed3.22 refChecks when viewed
The Airdog2.88 refChecks when viewed2.88 refChecks when viewed
The Demo's Dustcatcher3.11 refChecks when viewed4.22 refChecks when viewed
The Scoped Spartan3.00 refChecks when viewed4.16 refChecks when viewed
The Surgical Survivalist3.00 refChecks when viewed4.22 refChecks when viewed

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Herald's Helm25.0%Buy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed16.44 refChecks when viewed
The Gauzed Gaze25.0%4.55 refChecks when viewed15.55 refChecks when viewed
The Lurking Legionnaire25.0%6.66 refChecks when viewedBuy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed
The Patriot's Pouches25.0%5.00 refChecks when viewed15.00 refChecks when viewed

Mayflower Cosmetics Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost46.60 ref
Expected value49.66 ref
Expected P/L+3.06 ref
ROI6.6%
Win chance100%
Cheapest quoted inputThe Gauzed Gaze4.66 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost2 keys + 30.14 ref
Expected value2 keys + 27.88 ref
Expected P/L−2.25 ref
ROI-1.4%
Win chance50%
Cheapest quoted inputThe Gauzed Gaze15.88 ref each

Eligible Commando inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Herald's Helm4.77 refChecks when viewed36.33 refChecks when viewed
The Gauzed Gaze4.66 refChecks when viewed15.88 refChecks when viewed
The Lurking Legionnaire6.33 refChecks when viewed18.44 refChecks when viewed
The Patriot's Pouches5.11 refChecks when viewed17.00 refChecks when viewed

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Dad Duds50.0%49.66 refChecks when viewed2 keys + 39.44 refChecks when viewed
The Dayjogger50.0%49.66 refChecks when viewed2 keys + 16.33 refChecks when viewed

Mayflower Cosmetics Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost8 keys + 51.96 ref
Expected value7 keys + 54.63 ref
Expected P/L−61.65 ref
ROI-10.9%
Win chance50%
Cheapest quoted inputThe Dayjogger56.66 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost22 keys + 27.94 ref
Expected value20 keys + 47.16 ref
Expected P/L−1 key − 45.11 ref
ROI-7.6%
Win chance50%
Cheapest quoted inputThe Dayjogger2 keys + 15.66 ref each

Eligible Assassin inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Dad Duds61.22 refChecks when viewed2 keys + 40.33 refChecks when viewed
The Dayjogger56.66 refChecks when viewed2 keys + 15.66 refChecks when viewed

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Bedouin Bandana50.0%4 keys + 5.83 refChecks when viewed11 keys + 25.77 refChecks when viewed
The Dead Head50.0%11 keys + 39.11 refChecks when viewed30 keys + 4.22 refChecks when viewed

How to trade up to Mayflower Cosmetics Collection items

How to trade up to Herald's Helm

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Mayflower Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of Herald's Helm, one of 4 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Herald's Helm trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Gauzed Gaze

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Mayflower Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of The Gauzed Gaze, one of 4 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Gauzed Gaze trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Lurking Legionnaire

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Mayflower Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of The Lurking Legionnaire, one of 4 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Lurking Legionnaire trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Patriot's Pouches

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Mayflower Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of The Patriot's Pouches, one of 4 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Patriot's Pouches trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Dad Duds

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Mayflower Cosmetics Collection for a 50.00% chance of Dad Duds, one of 2 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Dad Duds trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Dayjogger

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Mayflower Cosmetics Collection for a 50.00% chance of The Dayjogger, one of 2 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Dayjogger trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Bedouin Bandana

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Mayflower Cosmetics Collection for a 50.00% chance of Bedouin Bandana, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Bedouin Bandana trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Dead Head

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Mayflower Cosmetics Collection for a 50.00% chance of The Dead Head, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Dead Head trade-up odds →

How Mayflower Cosmetics Collection odds work

With ten Mayflower Cosmetics Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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