T2TF2TradeUps.comOpen calculator

TF2 collection guide · Live calculator data

Mayflower Cosmetics Collection Trade-Up Guide

Mayflower Cosmetics Collection contains 14 items across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade items include Bedouin Bandana, The Dead Head. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

14Items
3Routes
CheckingPrice state
Data snapshot
Mayflower Cosmetic Case

Container information · Series #102

Mayflower Cosmetic Case

Mayflower Cosmetic Case contains items from the Mayflower Cosmetics Collection. The case was introduced on 2016-05-10. Requires a Mayflower Cosmetic Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Mayflower Cosmetics Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary6 items

80.00%

Commando4 items

16.00%

Assassin2 items

3.20%

Elite2 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade
  • Courtly Cuirass

    Mercenary · Chance: 13.33%

  • Squire's Sabatons

    Mercenary · Chance: 13.33%

  • The Airdog

    Mercenary · Chance: 13.33%

  • The Demo's Dustcatcher

    Mercenary · Chance: 13.33%

  • The Scoped Spartan

    Mercenary · Chance: 13.33%

  • The Surgical Survivalist

    Mercenary · Chance: 13.33%

Commando Grade
  • Herald's Helm

    Commando · Chance: 4.00%

  • The Gauzed Gaze

    Commando · Chance: 4.00%

  • The Lurking Legionnaire

    Commando · Chance: 4.00%

  • The Patriot's Pouches

    Commando · Chance: 4.00%

Assassin Grade
  • Dad Duds

    Assassin · Chance: 1.60%

  • The Dayjogger

    Assassin · Chance: 1.60%

Elite Grade
  • Bedouin Bandana

    Elite · Chance: 0.40%

  • The Dead Head

    Elite · Chance: 0.40%

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Mayflower Cosmetics Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost30.50 ref
Expected value5.91 ref
Expected P/L−24.59 ref
ROI-80.6%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputThe Scoped Spartan3.05 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost33.30 ref
Expected value17.41 ref
Expected P/L−15.89 ref
ROI-47.7%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputSquire's Sabatons3.33 ref each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Courtly Cuirass3.16 ref4.11 ref
Squire's Sabatons3.11 ref3.33 ref
The Airdog3.11 ref3.44 ref
The Demo's Dustcatcher3.11 refNo eligible quote
The Scoped Spartan3.05 ref4.44 ref
The Surgical Survivalist3.22 ref7.11 ref

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Herald's Helm25.0%4.66 ref16.22 ref
The Gauzed Gaze25.0%4.88 ref16.77 ref
The Lurking Legionnaire25.0%8.33 ref22.44 ref
The Patriot's Pouches25.0%5.77 ref14.22 ref

Mayflower Cosmetics Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost47.70 ref
Expected value49.27 ref
Expected P/L+1.57 ref
ROI3.3%
Win chance100%
Cheapest quoted inputHerald's Helm4.77 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost2 keys + 23.54 ref
Expected value2 keys + 32.89 ref
Expected P/L+9.34 ref
ROI6.1%
Win chance50%
Cheapest quoted inputThe Patriot's Pouches15.22 ref each

Eligible Commando inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Herald's Helm4.77 ref16.66 ref
The Gauzed Gaze5.22 ref18.22 ref
The Lurking Legionnaire8.44 ref24.05 ref
The Patriot's Pouches5.66 ref15.22 ref

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Dad Duds50.0%50.00 ref2 keys + 59.66 ref
The Dayjogger50.0%48.55 ref2 keys + 6.11 ref

Mayflower Cosmetics Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost7 keys + 39.69 ref
Expected value8 keys + 37.61 ref
Expected P/L+62.25 ref
ROI12.7%
Win chance50%
Cheapest quoted inputThe Dayjogger49.00 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost21 keys + 57.87 ref
Expected value22 keys + 41.44 ref
Expected P/L+47.90 ref
ROI3.4%
Win chance50%
Cheapest quoted inputThe Dayjogger2 keys + 12.22 ref each

Eligible Assassin inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Dad Duds50.55 ref2 keys + 60.66 ref
The Dayjogger49.00 ref2 keys + 12.22 ref

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Bedouin Bandana50.0%4 keys + 31.77 ref11 keys + 36.44 ref
The Dead Head50.0%12 keys + 43.44 ref33 keys + 46.44 ref

How to trade up to Mayflower Cosmetics Collection items

How to trade up to Herald's Helm

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Mayflower Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of Herald's Helm, one of 4 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Herald's Helm trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Gauzed Gaze

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Mayflower Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of The Gauzed Gaze, one of 4 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Gauzed Gaze trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Lurking Legionnaire

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Mayflower Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of The Lurking Legionnaire, one of 4 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Lurking Legionnaire trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Patriot's Pouches

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Mayflower Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of The Patriot's Pouches, one of 4 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Patriot's Pouches trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Dad Duds

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Mayflower Cosmetics Collection for a 50.00% chance of Dad Duds, one of 2 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Dad Duds trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Dayjogger

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Mayflower Cosmetics Collection for a 50.00% chance of The Dayjogger, one of 2 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Dayjogger trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Bedouin Bandana

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Mayflower Cosmetics Collection for a 50.00% chance of Bedouin Bandana, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Bedouin Bandana trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Dead Head

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Mayflower Cosmetics Collection for a 50.00% chance of The Dead Head, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Dead Head trade-up odds →

How Mayflower Cosmetics Collection odds work

With ten Mayflower Cosmetics Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

Explore related TF2 collections

Abominable Cosmetic CaseAbominable Cosmetic Collection items & trade-up odds →Blue Moon Cosmetic CaseBlue Moon Cosmetics Collection items & trade-up odds →Bone-Chilling Bonanza CaseBone-Chilling Bonanza Collection items & trade-up odds →Confidential Collection CaseConfidential Collection items & trade-up odds →
Browse every TF2 collection