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TF2 collection guide · Saved market observations

Winter 2019 Cosmetics Collection Trade-Up Guide

Winter 2019 Cosmetics Collection contains 18 items across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade item is Candy Crown. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

18Items
3Routes
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Data snapshot . Loading the dataset does not recheck every listing; individual quotes can still be missing or stale.

Steam pricing is temporarily paused. Prices use backpack.tf only.

Winter 2019 Cosmetics Collection: choose your target tier

Start with the item you want, then choose the grade immediately below it. Winter 2019 Cosmetics Collection offers 3 adjacent-grade routes. Each row below assumes ten eligible inputs from this collection, with one result per contract; these are not case-opening probabilities.

10 Mercenary inputs → 1 Commando output

Choose among 9 input item names. Each of the 5 outputs has a 20.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 10.00% chance.

Commando targets

Compare Mercenary inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Commando inputs → 1 Assassin output

Choose among 5 input item names. Each of the 3 outputs has a 33.33% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 16.67% chance.

Assassin targets

Compare Commando inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Assassin inputs → 1 Elite output

Choose among 3 input item names. Each of the 1 outputs has a 100.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 50.00% chance.

Elite targets

Compare Assassin inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

Buying a higher-priced input in the same grade does not improve these single-collection odds. Price and quality still matter for cost: Strange and Non-Strange cannot be mixed. Read the odds guide or learn how expected profit differs from a guaranteed return.

Winter 2019 Cosmetic Case

Container information · Series #125

Winter 2019 Cosmetic Case

Winter 2019 Cosmetic Case contains items from the Winter 2019 Cosmetics Collection. The case was introduced on 2019-12-12. Requires a Winter 2019 Cosmetic Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Winter 2019 Cosmetics Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary9 items

80.00%

Commando5 items

16.00%

Assassin3 items

3.20%

Elite1 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade
  • Bumble Beenie

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%

  • Citizen Cane

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%

  • Gingerbread Mann

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%

  • Glittering Garland

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%

  • Pebbles the Penguin

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%

  • Pocket-Medes

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%

  • Spiky Viking

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%

  • The Missing Piece

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%

  • Yule Hog

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%

Commando Grade
  • Discovision

    Commando · Chance: 3.20%

  • Globetrotter

    Commando · Chance: 3.20%

  • Telefragger Toque

    Commando · Chance: 3.20%

  • The Mislaid Sweater

    Commando · Chance: 3.20%

  • Winter Wrap Up

    Commando · Chance: 3.20%

Assassin Grade
  • Provisions Cap

    Assassin · Chance: 1.07%

  • Public Speaker

    Assassin · Chance: 1.07%

  • Smissmas Saxton

    Assassin · Chance: 1.07%

Elite Grade
  • Candy Crown

    Elite · Chance: 0.80%

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Winter 2019 Cosmetics Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost28.80 ref
Expected value5.26 ref
Expected P/L−23.54 ref
ROI-81.7%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputSpiky Viking2.88 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost44.40 ref
Expected value22.15 ref
Expected P/L−22.25 ref
ROI-50.1%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputThe Missing Piece4.44 ref each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Bumble Beenie3.77 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Citizen CaneSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed5.11 refChecks when viewed
Gingerbread MannSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Glittering Garland2.88 refChecks when viewed6.00 refChecks when viewed
Pebbles the Penguin7.50 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Pocket-Medes3.11 refChecks when viewed8.44 refChecks when viewed
Spiky Viking2.88 refChecks when viewed4.50 refChecks when viewed
The Missing PieceSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed4.44 refChecks when viewed
Yule HogSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed7.77 refChecks when viewed

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Discovision20.0%3.22 refChecks when viewed22.77 refChecks when viewed
Globetrotter20.0%3.11 refChecks when viewed11.33 refChecks when viewed
Telefragger Toque20.0%3.00 refChecks when viewed11.55 refChecks when viewed
The Mislaid Sweater20.0%8.22 refChecks when viewed42.22 refChecks when viewed
Winter Wrap Up20.0%8.77 refChecks when viewed22.88 refChecks when viewed

Winter 2019 Cosmetics Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost31.10 ref
Expected value13.77 ref
Expected P/L−17.33 ref
ROI-55.7%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputTelefragger Toque3.11 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost1 key + 62.27 ref
Expected value59.26 ref
Expected P/L−1 key − 3.01 ref
ROI-53.2%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputGlobetrotter12.66 ref each

Eligible Commando inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Discovision3.22 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
GlobetrotterSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed12.66 refChecks when viewed
Telefragger Toque3.11 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
The Mislaid Sweater8.00 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Winter Wrap Up8.88 refChecks when viewed23.55 refChecks when viewed

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Provisions Cap33.3%15.55 refChecks when viewed60.55 refChecks when viewed
Public Speaker33.3%11.00 refChecks when viewed58.00 refChecks when viewed
Smissmas Saxton33.3%14.77 refChecks when viewed59.22 refChecks when viewed

Winter 2019 Cosmetics Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost2 keys + 19.04 ref
Expected value25.33 ref
Expected P/L−1 key − 58.04 ref
ROI-82.9%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputSmissmas Saxton14.77 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost9 keys + 26.53 ref
Expected value2 keys + 2.88 ref
Expected P/L−7 keys − 23.65 ref
ROI-78.3%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputSmissmas Saxton60.55 ref each

Eligible Assassin inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Provisions Cap15.44 refChecks when viewed61.55 refChecks when viewed
Public SpeakerSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed1 key + 2.77 refChecks when viewed
Smissmas Saxton14.77 refChecks when viewed60.55 refChecks when viewed

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Candy Crown100.0%25.33 refChecks when viewed2 keys + 2.88 refChecks when viewed

How to trade up to Winter 2019 Cosmetics Collection items

How to trade up to Discovision

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2019 Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of Discovision, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Discovision trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Globetrotter

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2019 Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of Globetrotter, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Globetrotter trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Telefragger Toque

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2019 Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of Telefragger Toque, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Telefragger Toque trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Mislaid Sweater

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2019 Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of The Mislaid Sweater, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Mislaid Sweater trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Winter Wrap Up

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2019 Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of Winter Wrap Up, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Winter Wrap Up trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Provisions Cap

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Winter 2019 Cosmetics Collection for a 33.33% chance of Provisions Cap, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Provisions Cap trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Public Speaker

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Winter 2019 Cosmetics Collection for a 33.33% chance of Public Speaker, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Public Speaker trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Smissmas Saxton

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Winter 2019 Cosmetics Collection for a 33.33% chance of Smissmas Saxton, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Smissmas Saxton trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Candy Crown

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Winter 2019 Cosmetics Collection for a 100.00% chance of Candy Crown, one of 1 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 50.00%. The ten-input single-collection recipe guarantees the item type, not its selling price or a profit; the mixed recipe does not guarantee the item.

Calculate Candy Crown trade-up odds →

How Winter 2019 Cosmetics Collection odds work

With ten Winter 2019 Cosmetics Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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