How are Winter 2019 Cosmetics Collection trade-up odds calculated?

In a single-collection contract, every recorded item at the next rarity has an equal chance. In a mixed contract, each input contributes ten percent probability to its collection, then that collection share is divided equally among its possible outputs.

Can Strange and non-Strange items be mixed in one TF2 trade-up?

No. A contract must use either all Strange inputs or all non-Strange inputs. This page displays both markets separately.

TF2 collection guide · Live calculator data

Winter 2019 Cosmetics Collection Trade-Up Guide

Winter 2019 Cosmetics Collection contains 18 items across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade item is Candy Crown. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

18Items

3Routes

CheckingPrice state

Data snapshot Tue, 08 Sep 2026 22:00:49 GMT

Container information · Series #125

Winter 2019 Cosmetic Case

Winter 2019 Cosmetic Case contains items from the Winter 2019 Cosmetics Collection. The case was introduced on 2019-12-12. Requires a Winter 2019 Cosmetic Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Winter 2019 Cosmetics Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary9 items

80.00%

Commando5 items

16.00%

Assassin3 items

3.20%

Elite1 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade

Bumble Beenie
Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%
Citizen Cane
Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%
Gingerbread Mann
Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%
Glittering Garland
Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%
Pebbles the Penguin
Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%
Pocket-Medes
Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%
Spiky Viking
Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%
The Missing Piece
Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%
Yule Hog
Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%

Commando Grade

Discovision
Commando · Chance: 3.20%
Globetrotter
Commando · Chance: 3.20%
Telefragger Toque
Commando · Chance: 3.20%
The Mislaid Sweater
Commando · Chance: 3.20%
Winter Wrap Up
Commando · Chance: 3.20%

Assassin Grade

Provisions Cap
Assassin · Chance: 1.07%
Public Speaker
Assassin · Chance: 1.07%
Smissmas Saxton
Assassin · Chance: 1.07%

Elite Grade

Candy Crown
Elite · Chance: 0.80%

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Winter 2019 Cosmetics Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost31.10 ref

Expected value5.33 ref

Expected P/L−25.77 ref

ROI-82.9%

Win chance0%

Cheapest quoted inputSpiky Viking3.11 ref each

Strange

strange

10× cost37.70 ref

Expected value21.93 ref

Expected P/L−15.77 ref

ROI-41.8%

Win chance20%

Cheapest quoted inputGingerbread Mann3.77 ref each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Bumble Beenie	5.00 ref	17.11 ref
Citizen Cane	3.11 ref	4.88 ref
Gingerbread Mann	3.11 ref	3.77 ref
Glittering Garland	3.33 ref	4.22 ref
Pebbles the Penguin	8.44 ref	32.33 ref
Pocket-Medes	3.22 ref	No eligible quote
Spiky Viking	3.11 ref	4.77 ref
The Missing Piece	3.11 ref	5.77 ref
Yule Hog	3.11 ref	9.33 ref

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid
Discovision	20.0%	3.11 ref	16.44 ref
Globetrotter	20.0%	3.33 ref	10.88 ref
Telefragger Toque	20.0%	3.33 ref	14.00 ref
The Mislaid Sweater	20.0%	8.33 ref	40.44 ref
Winter Wrap Up	20.0%	8.55 ref	27.88 ref

Winter 2019 Cosmetics Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost34.40 ref

Expected value13.22 ref

Expected P/L−21.18 ref

ROI-61.6%

Win chance0%

Cheapest quoted inputGlobetrotter3.44 ref each

Strange

strange

10× cost2 keys + 24.64 ref

Expected value54.62 ref

Expected P/L−1 key − 34.35 ref

ROI-64.4%

Win chance0%

Cheapest quoted inputTelefragger Toque15.33 ref each

Eligible Commando inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Discovision	3.55 ref	19.66 ref
Globetrotter	3.44 ref	No eligible quote
Telefragger Toque	3.77 ref	15.33 ref
The Mislaid Sweater	8.27 ref	41.88 ref
Winter Wrap Up	8.66 ref	28.66 ref

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid
Provisions Cap	33.3%	16.00 ref	54.88 ref
Public Speaker	33.3%	10.88 ref	55.55 ref
Smissmas Saxton	33.3%	12.77 ref	53.44 ref

Winter 2019 Cosmetics Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost1 key + 47.87 ref

Expected value26.44 ref

Expected P/L−1 key − 21.43 ref

ROI-76.4%

Win chance0%

Cheapest quoted inputPublic Speaker11.22 ref each

Strange

strange

10× cost8 keys + 47.56 ref

Expected value2 keys + 5.77 ref

Expected P/L−6 keys − 41.79 ref

ROI-76.1%

Win chance0%

Cheapest quoted inputSmissmas Saxton56.22 ref each

Eligible Assassin inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Provisions Cap	16.22 ref	62.22 ref
Public Speaker	11.22 ref	1 key + 3.55 ref
Smissmas Saxton	13.77 ref	56.22 ref

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid	Markets
Candy Crown	100.0%	26.44 ref	2 keys + 5.77 ref

How to trade up to Winter 2019 Cosmetics Collection items

How to trade up to Discovision

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2019 Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of Discovision, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Discovision trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Globetrotter

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2019 Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of Globetrotter, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Globetrotter trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Telefragger Toque

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2019 Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of Telefragger Toque, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Telefragger Toque trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Mislaid Sweater

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2019 Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of The Mislaid Sweater, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Mislaid Sweater trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Winter Wrap Up

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2019 Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of Winter Wrap Up, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Winter Wrap Up trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Provisions Cap

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Winter 2019 Cosmetics Collection for a 33.33% chance of Provisions Cap, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Provisions Cap trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Public Speaker

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Winter 2019 Cosmetics Collection for a 33.33% chance of Public Speaker, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Public Speaker trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Smissmas Saxton

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Winter 2019 Cosmetics Collection for a 33.33% chance of Smissmas Saxton, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Smissmas Saxton trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Candy Crown

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Winter 2019 Cosmetics Collection for a 100.00% chance of Candy Crown, one of 1 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 50.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Candy Crown trade-up odds →

How Winter 2019 Cosmetics Collection odds work

With ten Winter 2019 Cosmetics Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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