How are Craftsmann Collection trade-up odds calculated?

In a single-collection contract, every recorded item at the next rarity has an equal chance. In a mixed contract, each input contributes ten percent probability to its collection, then that collection share is divided equally among its possible outputs.

Can Strange and non-Strange items be mixed in one TF2 trade-up?

No. A contract must use either all Strange inputs or all non-Strange inputs. This page displays both markets separately.

TF2 collection guide · Saved market observations

Craftsmann Collection Trade-Up Guide

Craftsmann Collection contains 15 decorated weapons across 4 grades, from Civilian to Commando. Its highest-grade items include Lumber From Down Under Sniper Rifle, Tartan Torpedo Scattergun. Compare the Mercenary-to-Commando trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Commando output.

15Items

3Routes

ReferenceDataset state

Data snapshot Tue, 03 Nov 2026 12:08:18 GMT. Loading the dataset does not recheck every listing; individual quotes can still be missing or stale.

Steam pricing is temporarily paused. Prices use backpack.tf only.

Craftsmann Collection: choose your target tier

Start with the item you want, then choose the grade immediately below it. Craftsmann Collection offers 3 adjacent-grade routes. Each row below assumes ten eligible inputs from this collection, with one result per contract; these are not case-opening probabilities.

10 Civilian inputs → 1 Freelance output

Choose among 5 input item names. Each of the 5 outputs has a 20.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 10.00% chance.

Freelance targets

Compare Civilian inputs ↓

10 Freelance inputs → 1 Mercenary output

Choose among 5 input item names. Each of the 3 outputs has a 33.33% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 16.67% chance.

Mercenary targets

Compare Freelance inputs ↓

10 Mercenary inputs → 1 Commando output

Choose among 3 input item names. Each of the 2 outputs has a 50.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 25.00% chance.

Commando targets

Compare Mercenary inputs ↓

Buying a higher-priced input in the same grade does not improve these single-collection odds. Price and quality still matter for cost: Strange and Non-Strange cannot be mixed. Read the odds guide or learn how expected profit differs from a guaranteed return.

Collection information

Craftsmann Collection

Craftsmann is a Gun Mettle decorated-weapon collection with wood and plaid finishes. Its grades run from Civilian to Commando, ending with Tartan Torpedo Scattergun and Lumber From Down Under Sniper Rifle rather than an Elite tier.

View collection reference ↗

All Craftsmann Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade.

No case-opening odds apply to this non-case collection. See the trade-up tiers below for applicable output odds.

Grades in this collection

Civilian5 items

Freelance5 items

Mercenary3 items

Commando2 items

Collection item list

Civilian Grade

American Pastoral Rocket Launcher
Civilian
Antique Annihilator Minigun
Civilian
Backcountry Blaster Scattergun
Civilian
Old Country Revolver
Civilian
Reclaimed Reanimator Medi Gun
Civilian

Freelance Grade

Blasted Bombardier Stickybomb Launcher
Freelance
Country Crusher Scattergun
Freelance
Iron Wood Minigun
Freelance
Plaid Potshotter SMG
Freelance
Shot in the Dark Sniper Rifle
Freelance

Mercenary Grade

Barn Burner Flame Thrower
Mercenary
Homemade Heater Pistol
Mercenary
Rustic Ruiner Shotgun
Mercenary

Commando Grade

Lumber From Down Under Sniper Rifle
Commando
Tartan Torpedo Scattergun
Commando

This non-case collection is a reference guide. Its items are not yet covered by the calculator’s price feed, so no live prices, EV or prefilled contracts are claimed. The grade relationships below describe the catalog, not guaranteed executable trades.

War Paint and decorated-weapon quotes must match both quality and wear. This guide compares Factory New only; select Minimal Wear, Field-Tested, Well-Worn or Battle Scarred in the calculator. Steam pricing is temporarily paused. Backpack.tf wear-specific coverage is limited; missing quotes remain unavailable. A collection’s output wear follows that collection’s inputs, not another collection’s wear.

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Craftsmann Collection route

Civilian→Freelance

Eligible Civilian inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
American Pastoral Rocket Launcher	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed
Antique Annihilator Minigun	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed
Backcountry Blaster Scattergun	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed
Old Country Revolver	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed
Reclaimed Reanimator Medi Gun	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed

Possible Freelance outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid
Blasted Bombardier Stickybomb Launcher	20.0%	Buy order not yet checkedChecks when viewed	Buy order not yet checkedChecks when viewed
Country Crusher Scattergun	20.0%	Buy order not yet checkedChecks when viewed	Buy order not yet checkedChecks when viewed
Iron Wood Minigun	20.0%	Buy order not yet checkedChecks when viewed	Buy order not yet checkedChecks when viewed
Plaid Potshotter SMG	20.0%	Buy order not yet checkedChecks when viewed	Buy order not yet checkedChecks when viewed
Shot in the Dark Sniper Rifle	20.0%	Buy order not yet checkedChecks when viewed	Buy order not yet checkedChecks when viewed

Craftsmann Collection route

Freelance→Mercenary

Eligible Freelance inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Blasted Bombardier Stickybomb Launcher	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed
Country Crusher Scattergun	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed
Iron Wood Minigun	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed
Plaid Potshotter SMG	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed
Shot in the Dark Sniper Rifle	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed

Possible Mercenary outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid
Barn Burner Flame Thrower	33.3%	Buy order not yet checkedChecks when viewed	Buy order not yet checkedChecks when viewed
Homemade Heater Pistol	33.3%	Buy order not yet checkedChecks when viewed	Buy order not yet checkedChecks when viewed
Rustic Ruiner Shotgun	33.3%	Buy order not yet checkedChecks when viewed	Buy order not yet checkedChecks when viewed

Craftsmann Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Eligible Mercenary inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Barn Burner Flame Thrower	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed
Homemade Heater Pistol	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed
Rustic Ruiner Shotgun	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid	Markets
Lumber From Down Under Sniper Rifle	50.0%	Buy order not yet checkedChecks when viewed	Buy order not yet checkedChecks when viewed
Tartan Torpedo Scattergun	50.0%	Buy order not yet checkedChecks when viewed	Buy order not yet checkedChecks when viewed

How to trade up to Craftsmann Collection items

How to trade up to Blasted Bombardier Stickybomb Launcher

Use ten eligible Civilian inputs from Craftsmann Collection for a 20.00% chance of Blasted Bombardier Stickybomb Launcher, one of 5 Freelance outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

How to trade up to Country Crusher Scattergun

Use ten eligible Civilian inputs from Craftsmann Collection for a 20.00% chance of Country Crusher Scattergun, one of 5 Freelance outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

How to trade up to Iron Wood Minigun

Use ten eligible Civilian inputs from Craftsmann Collection for a 20.00% chance of Iron Wood Minigun, one of 5 Freelance outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

How to trade up to Plaid Potshotter SMG

Use ten eligible Civilian inputs from Craftsmann Collection for a 20.00% chance of Plaid Potshotter SMG, one of 5 Freelance outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

How to trade up to Shot in the Dark Sniper Rifle

Use ten eligible Civilian inputs from Craftsmann Collection for a 20.00% chance of Shot in the Dark Sniper Rifle, one of 5 Freelance outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

How to trade up to Barn Burner Flame Thrower

Use ten eligible Freelance inputs from Craftsmann Collection for a 33.33% chance of Barn Burner Flame Thrower, one of 3 Mercenary outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

How to trade up to Homemade Heater Pistol

Use ten eligible Freelance inputs from Craftsmann Collection for a 33.33% chance of Homemade Heater Pistol, one of 3 Mercenary outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

How to trade up to Rustic Ruiner Shotgun

Use ten eligible Freelance inputs from Craftsmann Collection for a 33.33% chance of Rustic Ruiner Shotgun, one of 3 Mercenary outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

How to trade up to Lumber From Down Under Sniper Rifle

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Craftsmann Collection for a 50.00% chance of Lumber From Down Under Sniper Rifle, one of 2 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

How to trade up to Tartan Torpedo Scattergun

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Craftsmann Collection for a 50.00% chance of Tartan Torpedo Scattergun, one of 2 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

How Craftsmann Collection odds work

With ten Craftsmann Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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