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Ghoulish Gains Collection Trade-Up Guide

Ghoulish Gains Collection contains 22 items across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade items include Propaniac, The Onimann. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

22Items
3Routes
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Ghoulish Gains Case

Container information · Series #137

Ghoulish Gains Case

Ghoulish Gains Case contains items from the Ghoulish Gains Collection. The case was introduced on 2022-10-04. Requires a Ghoulish Gains Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Ghoulish Gains Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary10 items

80.00%

Commando6 items

16.00%

Assassin4 items

3.20%

Elite2 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade
  • Beaten and Bruised

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Bombard Brigadier

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Firearm Protector

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Horror Shawl

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Hunting Cloak

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • More Gun Marshal

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Nightbane Brim

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Starlight Sorcerer

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • The Imp's Imprint

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • The Turncoat

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

Commando Grade
  • Dustbowl Devil

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

  • Headhunter's Brim

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

  • Road Block

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

  • Safety Stripes

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

  • The Lavish Labwear

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

  • The Masked Fiend

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

Assassin Grade
  • Alcoholic Automaton

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

  • Cranial Cowl

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

  • Road Rage

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

  • Victorian Villainy

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

Elite Grade
  • Propaniac

    Elite · Chance: 0.40%

  • The Onimann

    Elite · Chance: 0.40%

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Ghoulish Gains Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost30.50 ref
Expected value5.66 ref
Expected P/L−24.84 ref
ROI-81.4%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputFirearm Protector3.05 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost32.20 ref
Expected value17.05 ref
Expected P/L−15.15 ref
ROI-47.0%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputFirearm Protector3.22 ref each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Beaten and Bruised6.33 ref15.77 ref
Bombard Brigadier3.11 ref3.44 ref
Firearm Protector3.05 ref3.22 ref
Horror Shawl3.11 refNo eligible quote
Hunting Cloak5.44 ref10.44 ref
More Gun Marshal4.44 ref10.44 ref
Nightbane Brim3.11 ref6.22 ref
Starlight Sorcerer4.44 ref17.77 ref
The Imp's Imprint3.66 ref7.33 ref
The Turncoat6.55 ref13.55 ref

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Dustbowl Devil16.7%5.77 ref16.11 ref
Headhunter's Brim16.7%4.44 ref12.66 ref
Road Block16.7%3.88 ref15.00 ref
Safety Stripes16.7%5.44 ref15.88 ref
The Lavish Labwear16.7%8.66 ref21.00 ref
The Masked Fiend16.7%5.77 ref21.66 ref

Ghoulish Gains Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost45.50 ref
Expected value39.88 ref
Expected P/L−5.62 ref
ROI-12.3%
Win chance50%
Cheapest quoted inputHeadhunter's Brim4.55 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost2 keys + 4.64 ref
Expected value1 key + 60.41 ref
Expected P/L−8.56 ref
ROI-6.4%
Win chance50%
Cheapest quoted inputHeadhunter's Brim13.33 ref each

Eligible Commando inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Dustbowl Devil5.88 ref16.77 ref
Headhunter's Brim4.55 ref13.33 ref
Road Block4.72 ref15.66 ref
Safety Stripes7.33 ref17.33 ref
The Lavish Labwear8.77 refNo eligible quote
The Masked Fiend5.66 ref24.77 ref

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Alcoholic Automaton25.0%1 key + 0.55 ref3 keys + 42.00 ref
Cranial Cowl25.0%1 key + 7.33 ref2 keys + 28.44 ref
Road Rage25.0%10.11 ref45.33 ref
Victorian Villainy25.0%12.88 ref61.55 ref

Ghoulish Gains Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost1 key + 46.77 ref
Expected value1 key + 12.22 ref
Expected P/L−34.55 ref
ROI-31.1%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputRoad Rage11.11 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost10 keys + 25.50 ref
Expected value3 keys + 39.17 ref
Expected P/L−6 keys − 50.66 ref
ROI-65.3%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputVictorian Villainy1 key + 2.55 ref each

Eligible Assassin inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Alcoholic Automaton1 key + 0.66 ref4 keys + 43.44 ref
Cranial Cowl1 key + 8.33 ref2 keys + 30.77 ref
Road Rage11.11 refNo eligible quote
Victorian Villainy13.66 ref1 key + 2.55 ref

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Propaniac50.0%57.77 ref2 keys + 30.11 ref
The Onimann50.0%1 key + 31.00 ref4 keys + 48.22 ref

How to trade up to Ghoulish Gains Collection items

How to trade up to Dustbowl Devil

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Ghoulish Gains Collection for a 16.67% chance of Dustbowl Devil, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Dustbowl Devil trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Headhunter's Brim

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Ghoulish Gains Collection for a 16.67% chance of Headhunter's Brim, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Headhunter's Brim trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Road Block

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Ghoulish Gains Collection for a 16.67% chance of Road Block, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Road Block trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Safety Stripes

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Ghoulish Gains Collection for a 16.67% chance of Safety Stripes, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Safety Stripes trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Lavish Labwear

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Ghoulish Gains Collection for a 16.67% chance of The Lavish Labwear, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Lavish Labwear trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Masked Fiend

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Ghoulish Gains Collection for a 16.67% chance of The Masked Fiend, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Masked Fiend trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Alcoholic Automaton

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Ghoulish Gains Collection for a 25.00% chance of Alcoholic Automaton, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Alcoholic Automaton trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Cranial Cowl

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Ghoulish Gains Collection for a 25.00% chance of Cranial Cowl, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Cranial Cowl trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Road Rage

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Ghoulish Gains Collection for a 25.00% chance of Road Rage, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Road Rage trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Victorian Villainy

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Ghoulish Gains Collection for a 25.00% chance of Victorian Villainy, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Victorian Villainy trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Propaniac

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Ghoulish Gains Collection for a 50.00% chance of Propaniac, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Propaniac trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Onimann

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Ghoulish Gains Collection for a 50.00% chance of The Onimann, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Onimann trade-up odds →

How Ghoulish Gains Collection odds work

With ten Ghoulish Gains Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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