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TF2 collection guide · Saved market observations

Ghoulish Gains Collection Trade-Up Guide

Ghoulish Gains Collection contains 22 items across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade items include Propaniac, The Onimann. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

22Items
3Routes
LoadingDataset state
Data snapshot . Loading the dataset does not recheck every listing; individual quotes can still be missing or stale.

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Ghoulish Gains Collection: choose your target tier

Start with the item you want, then choose the grade immediately below it. Ghoulish Gains Collection offers 3 adjacent-grade routes. Each row below assumes ten eligible inputs from this collection, with one result per contract; these are not case-opening probabilities.

10 Mercenary inputs → 1 Commando output

Choose among 10 input item names. Each of the 6 outputs has a 16.67% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 8.33% chance.

Commando targets

Compare Mercenary inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Commando inputs → 1 Assassin output

Choose among 6 input item names. Each of the 4 outputs has a 25.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 12.50% chance.

Assassin targets

Compare Commando inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Assassin inputs → 1 Elite output

Choose among 4 input item names. Each of the 2 outputs has a 50.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 25.00% chance.

Elite targets

Compare Assassin inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

Buying a higher-priced input in the same grade does not improve these single-collection odds. Price and quality still matter for cost: Strange and Non-Strange cannot be mixed. Read the odds guide or learn how expected profit differs from a guaranteed return.

Ghoulish Gains Case

Container information · Series #137

Ghoulish Gains Case

Ghoulish Gains Case contains items from the Ghoulish Gains Collection. The case was introduced on 2022-10-04. Requires a Ghoulish Gains Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Ghoulish Gains Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary10 items

80.00%

Commando6 items

16.00%

Assassin4 items

3.20%

Elite2 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade
  • Beaten and Bruised

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Bombard Brigadier

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Firearm Protector

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Horror Shawl

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Hunting Cloak

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • More Gun Marshal

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Nightbane Brim

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Starlight Sorcerer

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • The Imp's Imprint

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • The Turncoat

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

Commando Grade
  • Dustbowl Devil

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

  • Headhunter's Brim

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

  • Road Block

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

  • Safety Stripes

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

  • The Lavish Labwear

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

  • The Masked Fiend

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

Assassin Grade
  • Alcoholic Automaton

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

  • Cranial Cowl

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

  • Road Rage

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

  • Victorian Villainy

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

Elite Grade
  • Propaniac

    Elite · Chance: 0.40%

  • The Onimann

    Elite · Chance: 0.40%

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Ghoulish Gains Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost28.80 ref
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputBombard Brigadier2.88 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost35.50 ref
Expected value16.77 ref
Expected P/L−18.73 ref
ROI-52.8%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputFirearm Protector3.55 ref each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Beaten and Bruised5.00 refChecks when viewed13.77 refChecks when viewed
Bombard Brigadier2.88 refChecks when viewed3.66 refChecks when viewed
Firearm Protector2.88 refChecks when viewed3.55 refChecks when viewed
Horror Shawl3.00 refChecks when viewed4.00 refChecks when viewed
Hunting Cloak4.00 refChecks when viewed9.77 refChecks when viewed
More Gun Marshal3.55 refChecks when viewed8.55 refChecks when viewed
Nightbane Brim3.00 refChecks when viewed6.44 refChecks when viewed
Starlight Sorcerer3.44 refChecks when viewed16.38 refChecks when viewed
The Imp's Imprint3.00 refChecks when viewed6.22 refChecks when viewed
The Turncoat5.11 refChecks when viewed12.77 refChecks when viewed

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Dustbowl Devil16.7%4.77 refChecks when viewed14.44 refChecks when viewed
Headhunter's Brim16.7%3.55 refChecks when viewed13.88 refChecks when viewed
Road Block16.7%3.38 refChecks when viewed13.77 refChecks when viewed
Safety Stripes16.7%Buy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed16.88 refChecks when viewed
The Lavish Labwear16.7%6.77 refChecks when viewed21.88 refChecks when viewed
The Masked Fiend16.7%4.22 refChecks when viewed19.77 refChecks when viewed

Ghoulish Gains Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost37.70 ref
Expected value35.14 ref
Expected P/L−2.56 ref
ROI-6.8%
Win chance50%
Cheapest quoted inputHeadhunter's Brim3.77 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost2 keys + 10.14 ref
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputHeadhunter's Brim13.88 ref each

Eligible Commando inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Dustbowl Devil5.22 refChecks when viewed14.66 refChecks when viewed
Headhunter's Brim3.77 refChecks when viewed13.88 refChecks when viewed
Road BlockSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed14.11 refChecks when viewed
Safety Stripes5.22 refChecks when viewed17.11 refChecks when viewed
The Lavish Labwear6.77 refChecks when viewed22.22 refChecks when viewed
The Masked Fiend4.44 refChecks when viewed19.88 refChecks when viewed

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Alcoholic Automaton25.0%53.44 refChecks when viewedBuy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed
Cranial Cowl25.0%1 key + 1.33 refChecks when viewed2 keys + 28.55 refChecks when viewed
Road Rage25.0%9.00 refChecks when viewed44.55 refChecks when viewed
Victorian Villainy25.0%12.44 refChecks when viewed60.88 refChecks when viewed

Ghoulish Gains Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost1 key + 60.07 ref
Expected value1 key + 9.28 ref
Expected P/L−50.80 ref
ROI-40.8%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputVictorian Villainy12.44 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost7 keys + 16.29 ref
Expected value3 keys + 42.78 ref
Expected P/L−3 keys − 37.85 ref
ROI-49.5%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputRoad Rage46.66 ref each

Eligible Assassin inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Alcoholic Automaton54.44 refChecks when viewed3 keys + 13.11 refChecks when viewed
Cranial Cowl1 key + 3.33 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Road RageSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed46.66 refChecks when viewed
Victorian Villainy12.44 refChecks when viewed61.83 refChecks when viewed

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Propaniac50.0%62.77 refChecks when viewed2 keys + 41.00 refChecks when viewed
The Onimann50.0%1 key + 20.11 refChecks when viewed4 keys + 44.55 refChecks when viewed

How to trade up to Ghoulish Gains Collection items

How to trade up to Dustbowl Devil

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Ghoulish Gains Collection for a 16.67% chance of Dustbowl Devil, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Dustbowl Devil trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Headhunter's Brim

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Ghoulish Gains Collection for a 16.67% chance of Headhunter's Brim, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Headhunter's Brim trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Road Block

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Ghoulish Gains Collection for a 16.67% chance of Road Block, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Road Block trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Safety Stripes

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Ghoulish Gains Collection for a 16.67% chance of Safety Stripes, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Safety Stripes trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Lavish Labwear

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Ghoulish Gains Collection for a 16.67% chance of The Lavish Labwear, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Lavish Labwear trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Masked Fiend

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Ghoulish Gains Collection for a 16.67% chance of The Masked Fiend, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Masked Fiend trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Alcoholic Automaton

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Ghoulish Gains Collection for a 25.00% chance of Alcoholic Automaton, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Alcoholic Automaton trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Cranial Cowl

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Ghoulish Gains Collection for a 25.00% chance of Cranial Cowl, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Cranial Cowl trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Road Rage

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Ghoulish Gains Collection for a 25.00% chance of Road Rage, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Road Rage trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Victorian Villainy

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Ghoulish Gains Collection for a 25.00% chance of Victorian Villainy, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Victorian Villainy trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Propaniac

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Ghoulish Gains Collection for a 50.00% chance of Propaniac, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Propaniac trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Onimann

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Ghoulish Gains Collection for a 50.00% chance of The Onimann, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Onimann trade-up odds →

How Ghoulish Gains Collection odds work

With ten Ghoulish Gains Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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