How are Winter 2020 Collection trade-up odds calculated?

In a single-collection contract, every recorded item at the next rarity has an equal chance. In a mixed contract, each input contributes ten percent probability to its collection, then that collection share is divided equally among its possible outputs.

Can Strange and non-Strange items be mixed in one TF2 trade-up?

No. A contract must use either all Strange inputs or all non-Strange inputs. This page displays both markets separately.

TF2 collection guide · Live calculator data

Winter 2020 Collection Trade-Up Guide

Winter 2020 Collection contains 13 War Paint designs across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade item is Starlight Serenity War Paint. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

13Items

3Routes

CheckingPrice state

Data snapshot Tue, 08 Sep 2026 21:59:44 GMT

Container information · Series #131

Winter 2020 War Paint Case

Winter 2020 War Paint Case contains items from the Winter 2020 Collection. The case was introduced on 2020-12-02. Requires a Winter 2020 War Paint Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Winter 2020 Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary6 items

80.00%

Commando4 items

16.00%

Assassin2 items

3.20%

Elite1 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade

Gifting Mann's Wrapping Paper War Paint
Mercenary · Chance: 13.33%
Gingerbread Winner War Paint
Mercenary · Chance: 13.33%
Glacial Glazed War Paint
Mercenary · Chance: 13.33%
Peppermint Swirl War Paint
Mercenary · Chance: 13.33%
Snow Globalization War Paint
Mercenary · Chance: 13.33%
Snowflake Swirled War Paint
Mercenary · Chance: 13.33%

Commando Grade

Cookie Fortress War Paint
Commando · Chance: 4.00%
Elfin Enamel War Paint
Commando · Chance: 4.00%
Frozen Aurora War Paint
Commando · Chance: 4.00%
Smissmas Spycrabs War Paint
Commando · Chance: 4.00%

Assassin Grade

Frosty Delivery War Paint
Assassin · Chance: 1.60%
Saccharine Striped War Paint
Assassin · Chance: 1.60%

Elite Grade

Starlight Serenity War Paint
Elite · Chance: 0.80%

War Paint and decorated-weapon quotes must match both quality and wear. This guide compares Factory New only; select Minimal Wear, Field-Tested, Well-Worn or Battle Scarred in the calculator. Steam USD is recommended because backpack.tf wear-specific coverage is limited. A collection’s output wear follows that collection’s inputs, not another collection’s wear.

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Winter 2020 Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost$6.20

Expected valueIncomplete quotes

Expected P/LIncomplete quotes

ROIIncomplete quotes

Win chanceIncomplete quotes

Cheapest quoted inputSnow Globalization War Paint$0.62 each

Strange

strange

10× cost$82.90

Expected valueIncomplete quotes

Expected P/LIncomplete quotes

ROIIncomplete quotes

Win chanceIncomplete quotes

Cheapest quoted inputSnow Globalization War Paint$8.29 each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Gifting Mann's Wrapping Paper War Paint	No eligible quote	No eligible quote
Gingerbread Winner War Paint	$0.69	$8.54
Glacial Glazed War Paint	$1.63	$46.72
Peppermint Swirl War Paint	$0.80	$15.50
Snow Globalization War Paint	$0.62	$8.29
Snowflake Swirled War Paint	$1.18	$15.67

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid
Cookie Fortress War Paint	25.0%	$0.74	$10.72
Elfin Enamel War Paint	25.0%	$0.93	No eligible quote
Frozen Aurora War Paint	25.0%	$14.39	$133.60
Smissmas Spycrabs War Paint	25.0%	No eligible quote	No eligible quote

Winter 2020 Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost$9.90

Expected value$5.46

Expected P/L−$4.45

ROI-44.9%

Win chance0%

Cheapest quoted inputCookie Fortress War Paint$0.99 each

Strange

strange

10× cost$171.50

Expected valueIncomplete quotes

Expected P/LIncomplete quotes

ROIIncomplete quotes

Win chanceIncomplete quotes

Cheapest quoted inputCookie Fortress War Paint$17.15 each

Eligible Commando inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Cookie Fortress War Paint	$0.99	$17.15
Elfin Enamel War Paint	$1.26	No eligible quote
Frozen Aurora War Paint	$21.70	$217.59
Smissmas Spycrabs War Paint	No eligible quote	No eligible quote

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid	Markets
Frosty Delivery War Paint	50.0%	$3.65	No eligible quote
Saccharine Striped War Paint	50.0%	$7.26	$94.57

Winter 2020 Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost$58.90

Expected valueIncomplete quotes

Expected P/LIncomplete quotes

ROIIncomplete quotes

Win chanceIncomplete quotes

Cheapest quoted inputFrosty Delivery War Paint$5.89 each

Strange

strange

10× cost$2000.00

Expected valueIncomplete quotes

Expected P/LIncomplete quotes

ROIIncomplete quotes

Win chanceIncomplete quotes

Cheapest quoted inputSaccharine Striped War Paint$200.00 each

Eligible Assassin inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask	Markets
Frosty Delivery War Paint	$5.89	No eligible quote
Saccharine Striped War Paint	$8.68	$200.00

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid	Markets
Starlight Serenity War Paint	100.0%	No eligible quote	No eligible quote

How to trade up to Winter 2020 Collection items

How to trade up to Cookie Fortress War Paint

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2020 Collection for a 25.00% chance of Cookie Fortress War Paint, one of 4 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Cookie Fortress War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Elfin Enamel War Paint

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2020 Collection for a 25.00% chance of Elfin Enamel War Paint, one of 4 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Elfin Enamel War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Frozen Aurora War Paint

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2020 Collection for a 25.00% chance of Frozen Aurora War Paint, one of 4 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Frozen Aurora War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Smissmas Spycrabs War Paint

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2020 Collection for a 25.00% chance of Smissmas Spycrabs War Paint, one of 4 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Smissmas Spycrabs War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Frosty Delivery War Paint

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Winter 2020 Collection for a 50.00% chance of Frosty Delivery War Paint, one of 2 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Frosty Delivery War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Saccharine Striped War Paint

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Winter 2020 Collection for a 50.00% chance of Saccharine Striped War Paint, one of 2 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Saccharine Striped War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Starlight Serenity War Paint

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Winter 2020 Collection for a 100.00% chance of Starlight Serenity War Paint, one of 1 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 50.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Starlight Serenity War Paint trade-up odds →

How Winter 2020 Collection odds work

With ten Winter 2020 Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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