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TF2 collection guide · Saved market observations

Winter 2020 Collection Trade-Up Guide

Winter 2020 Collection contains 13 War Paint designs across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade item is Starlight Serenity War Paint. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

13Items
3Routes
LoadingDataset state
Data snapshot . Loading the dataset does not recheck every listing; individual quotes can still be missing or stale.

Steam pricing is temporarily paused. Prices use backpack.tf only.

Winter 2020 Collection: choose your target tier

Start with the item you want, then choose the grade immediately below it. Winter 2020 Collection offers 3 adjacent-grade routes. Each row below assumes ten eligible inputs from this collection, with one result per contract; these are not case-opening probabilities.

10 Mercenary inputs → 1 Commando output

Choose among 6 input item names. Each of the 4 outputs has a 25.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 12.50% chance.

Commando targets

Compare Mercenary inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Commando inputs → 1 Assassin output

Choose among 4 input item names. Each of the 2 outputs has a 50.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 25.00% chance.

Assassin targets

Compare Commando inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Assassin inputs → 1 Elite output

Choose among 2 input item names. Each of the 1 outputs has a 100.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 50.00% chance.

Elite targets

Compare Assassin inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

Buying a higher-priced input in the same grade does not improve these single-collection odds. Price and quality still matter for cost: Strange and Non-Strange cannot be mixed, and this guide’s market comparison uses Factory New wear. Read the odds guide or learn how expected profit differs from a guaranteed return.

Winter 2020 War Paint Case

Container information · Series #131

Winter 2020 War Paint Case

Winter 2020 War Paint Case contains items from the Winter 2020 Collection. The case was introduced on 2020-12-02. Requires a Winter 2020 War Paint Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Winter 2020 Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary6 items

80.00%

Commando4 items

16.00%

Assassin2 items

3.20%

Elite1 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade
  • Gifting Mann's Wrapping Paper War Paint

    Mercenary · Chance: 13.33%

  • Gingerbread Winner War Paint

    Mercenary · Chance: 13.33%

  • Glacial Glazed War Paint

    Mercenary · Chance: 13.33%

  • Peppermint Swirl War Paint

    Mercenary · Chance: 13.33%

  • Snow Globalization War Paint

    Mercenary · Chance: 13.33%

  • Snowflake Swirled War Paint

    Mercenary · Chance: 13.33%

Commando Grade
  • Cookie Fortress War Paint

    Commando · Chance: 4.00%

  • Elfin Enamel War Paint

    Commando · Chance: 4.00%

  • Frozen Aurora War Paint

    Commando · Chance: 4.00%

  • Smissmas Spycrabs War Paint

    Commando · Chance: 4.00%

Assassin Grade
  • Frosty Delivery War Paint

    Assassin · Chance: 1.60%

  • Saccharine Striped War Paint

    Assassin · Chance: 1.60%

Elite Grade
  • Starlight Serenity War Paint

    Elite · Chance: 0.80%

War Paint and decorated-weapon quotes must match both quality and wear. This guide compares Factory New only; select Minimal Wear, Field-Tested, Well-Worn or Battle Scarred in the calculator. Steam pricing is temporarily paused. Backpack.tf wear-specific coverage is limited; missing quotes remain unavailable. A collection’s output wear follows that collection’s inputs, not another collection’s wear.

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Winter 2020 Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost4 keys + 12.68 ref
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputGifting Mann's Wrapping Paper War Paint27.00 ref each

Strange

strange
10× costIncomplete quotes
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputNo eligible quoteQuote unavailable each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Gifting Mann's Wrapping Paper War Paint27.00 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Gingerbread Winner War PaintNo eligible sell listingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Glacial Glazed War PaintSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Peppermint Swirl War PaintSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Snow Globalization War PaintSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Snowflake Swirled War PaintSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Cookie Fortress War Paint25.0%10.11 refChecks when viewed4 keys + 37.77 refChecks when viewed
Elfin Enamel War Paint25.0%19.33 refChecks when viewed5 keys + 8.77 refChecks when viewed
Frozen Aurora War Paint25.0%Buy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed75 keys + 61.55 refChecks when viewed
Smissmas Spycrabs War Paint25.0%Buy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewedBuy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed

Winter 2020 Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost4 keys + 5.98 ref
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputElfin Enamel War Paint26.33 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost1000 keys
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputFrozen Aurora War Paint100 keys each

Eligible Commando inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Cookie Fortress War Paint32.55 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Elfin Enamel War Paint26.33 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Frozen Aurora War PaintSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed100 keysChecks when viewed
Smissmas Spycrabs War PaintSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Frosty Delivery War Paint50.0%Buy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed14 keys + 62.44 refChecks when viewed
Saccharine Striped War Paint50.0%2 keys + 40.22 refChecks when viewedBuy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed

Winter 2020 Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× costIncomplete quotes
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputNo eligible quoteQuote unavailable each

Strange

strange
10× costIncomplete quotes
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputNo eligible quoteQuote unavailable each

Eligible Assassin inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Frosty Delivery War PaintSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Saccharine Striped War PaintNo eligible sell listingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Starlight Serenity War Paint100.0%Buy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed97 keys + 63.66 refChecks when viewed

How to trade up to Winter 2020 Collection items

How to trade up to Cookie Fortress War Paint

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2020 Collection for a 25.00% chance of Cookie Fortress War Paint, one of 4 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Cookie Fortress War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Elfin Enamel War Paint

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2020 Collection for a 25.00% chance of Elfin Enamel War Paint, one of 4 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Elfin Enamel War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Frozen Aurora War Paint

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2020 Collection for a 25.00% chance of Frozen Aurora War Paint, one of 4 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Frozen Aurora War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Smissmas Spycrabs War Paint

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2020 Collection for a 25.00% chance of Smissmas Spycrabs War Paint, one of 4 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Smissmas Spycrabs War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Frosty Delivery War Paint

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Winter 2020 Collection for a 50.00% chance of Frosty Delivery War Paint, one of 2 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Frosty Delivery War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Saccharine Striped War Paint

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Winter 2020 Collection for a 50.00% chance of Saccharine Striped War Paint, one of 2 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Saccharine Striped War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Starlight Serenity War Paint

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Winter 2020 Collection for a 100.00% chance of Starlight Serenity War Paint, one of 1 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 50.00%. The ten-input single-collection recipe guarantees the item type, not its selling price or a profit; the mixed recipe does not guarantee the item.

Calculate Starlight Serenity War Paint trade-up odds →

How Winter 2020 Collection odds work

With ten Winter 2020 Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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