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TF2 collection guide · Saved market observations

Scream Fortress XIII Collection Trade-Up Guide

Scream Fortress XIII Collection contains 13 War Paint designs across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade item is Misfortunate War Paint. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

13Items
3Routes
LoadingDataset state
Data snapshot . Loading the dataset does not recheck every listing; individual quotes can still be missing or stale.

Steam pricing is temporarily paused. Prices use backpack.tf only.

Scream Fortress XIII Collection: choose your target tier

Start with the item you want, then choose the grade immediately below it. Scream Fortress XIII Collection offers 3 adjacent-grade routes. Each row below assumes ten eligible inputs from this collection, with one result per contract; these are not case-opening probabilities.

10 Mercenary inputs → 1 Commando output

Choose among 6 input item names. Each of the 4 outputs has a 25.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 12.50% chance.

Commando targets

Compare Mercenary inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Commando inputs → 1 Assassin output

Choose among 4 input item names. Each of the 2 outputs has a 50.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 25.00% chance.

Assassin targets

Compare Commando inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Assassin inputs → 1 Elite output

Choose among 2 input item names. Each of the 1 outputs has a 100.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 50.00% chance.

Elite targets

Compare Assassin inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

Buying a higher-priced input in the same grade does not improve these single-collection odds. Price and quality still matter for cost: Strange and Non-Strange cannot be mixed, and this guide’s market comparison uses Factory New wear. Read the odds guide or learn how expected profit differs from a guaranteed return.

Scream Fortress XIII War Paint Case

Container information · Series #134

Scream Fortress XIII War Paint Case

Scream Fortress XIII War Paint Case contains items from the Scream Fortress XIII Collection. The case was introduced on 2021-10-03. Requires a Scream Fortress XIII War Paint Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Scream Fortress XIII Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary6 items

80.00%

Commando4 items

16.00%

Assassin2 items

3.20%

Elite1 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade
  • Kiln and Conquer War Paint

    Mercenary · Chance: 13.33%

  • Potent Poison War Paint

    Mercenary · Chance: 13.33%

  • Sarsaparilla Sprayed War Paint

    Mercenary · Chance: 13.33%

  • Searing Souls War Paint

    Mercenary · Chance: 13.33%

  • Simple Spirits War Paint

    Mercenary · Chance: 13.33%

  • Skull Cracked War Paint

    Mercenary · Chance: 13.33%

Commando Grade
  • Necromanced War Paint

    Commando · Chance: 4.00%

  • Neon-ween War Paint

    Commando · Chance: 4.00%

  • Polter-Guised War Paint

    Commando · Chance: 4.00%

  • Swashbuckled War Paint

    Commando · Chance: 4.00%

Assassin Grade
  • Broken Bones War Paint

    Assassin · Chance: 1.60%

  • Party Phantoms War Paint

    Assassin · Chance: 1.60%

Elite Grade
  • Misfortunate War Paint

    Elite · Chance: 0.80%

War Paint and decorated-weapon quotes must match both quality and wear. This guide compares Factory New only; select Minimal Wear, Field-Tested, Well-Worn or Battle Scarred in the calculator. Steam pricing is temporarily paused. Backpack.tf wear-specific coverage is limited; missing quotes remain unavailable. A collection’s output wear follows that collection’s inputs, not another collection’s wear.

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Scream Fortress XIII Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost1 key + 36.77 ref
Expected value1 key + 24.92 ref
Expected P/L−11.85 ref
ROI-11.7%
Win chance50%
Cheapest quoted inputSarsaparilla Sprayed War Paint10.11 ref each

Strange

strange
10× costIncomplete quotes
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputNo eligible quoteQuote unavailable each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Kiln and Conquer War Paint22.77 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Potent Poison War PaintSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Sarsaparilla Sprayed War Paint10.11 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Searing Souls War PaintSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Simple Spirits War Paint23.00 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Skull Cracked War PaintSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Necromanced War Paint25.0%45.00 refChecks when viewedBuy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed
Neon-ween War Paint25.0%2 keys + 0.11 refChecks when viewed14 keys + 57.44 refChecks when viewed
Polter-Guised War Paint25.0%2 keys + 3.00 refChecks when viewed25 keys + 32.11 refChecks when viewed
Swashbuckled War Paint25.0%51.55 refChecks when viewedBuy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed

Scream Fortress XIII Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost9 keys + 21.03 ref
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputNecromanced War Paint60.00 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost329 keys + 27.63 ref
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputPolter-Guised War Paint32 keys + 60.66 ref each

Eligible Commando inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Necromanced War Paint60.00 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Neon-ween War Paint4 keys + 18.88 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Polter-Guised War Paint3 keys + 43.11 refChecks when viewed32 keys + 60.66 refChecks when viewed
Swashbuckled War Paint2 keysChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Broken Bones War Paint50.0%Buy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed27 keys + 0.11 refChecks when viewed
Party Phantoms War Paint50.0%Buy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewedBuy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed

Scream Fortress XIII Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× costIncomplete quotes
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputNo eligible quoteQuote unavailable each

Strange

strange
10× costIncomplete quotes
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputNo eligible quoteQuote unavailable each

Eligible Assassin inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Broken Bones War PaintSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedNo eligible sell listingChecks when viewed
Party Phantoms War PaintSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Misfortunate War Paint100.0%Buy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewedBuy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed

How to trade up to Scream Fortress XIII Collection items

How to trade up to Necromanced War Paint

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Scream Fortress XIII Collection for a 25.00% chance of Necromanced War Paint, one of 4 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Necromanced War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Neon-ween War Paint

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Scream Fortress XIII Collection for a 25.00% chance of Neon-ween War Paint, one of 4 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Neon-ween War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Polter-Guised War Paint

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Scream Fortress XIII Collection for a 25.00% chance of Polter-Guised War Paint, one of 4 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Polter-Guised War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Swashbuckled War Paint

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Scream Fortress XIII Collection for a 25.00% chance of Swashbuckled War Paint, one of 4 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Swashbuckled War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Broken Bones War Paint

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Scream Fortress XIII Collection for a 50.00% chance of Broken Bones War Paint, one of 2 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Broken Bones War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Party Phantoms War Paint

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Scream Fortress XIII Collection for a 50.00% chance of Party Phantoms War Paint, one of 2 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Party Phantoms War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Misfortunate War Paint

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Scream Fortress XIII Collection for a 100.00% chance of Misfortunate War Paint, one of 1 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 50.00%. The ten-input single-collection recipe guarantees the item type, not its selling price or a profit; the mixed recipe does not guarantee the item.

Calculate Misfortunate War Paint trade-up odds →

How Scream Fortress XIII Collection odds work

With ten Scream Fortress XIII Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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