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TF2 collection guide · Saved market observations

Violet Vermin Collection Trade-Up Guide

Violet Vermin Collection contains 20 items across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade item is Lucky Cat Hat. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

20Items
3Routes
LoadingDataset state
Data snapshot . Loading the dataset does not recheck every listing; individual quotes can still be missing or stale.

Steam pricing is temporarily paused. Prices use backpack.tf only.

Violet Vermin Collection: choose your target tier

Start with the item you want, then choose the grade immediately below it. Violet Vermin Collection offers 3 adjacent-grade routes. Each row below assumes ten eligible inputs from this collection, with one result per contract; these are not case-opening probabilities.

10 Mercenary inputs → 1 Commando output

Choose among 10 input item names. Each of the 6 outputs has a 16.67% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 8.33% chance.

Commando targets

Compare Mercenary inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Commando inputs → 1 Assassin output

Choose among 6 input item names. Each of the 3 outputs has a 33.33% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 16.67% chance.

Assassin targets

Compare Commando inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Assassin inputs → 1 Elite output

Choose among 3 input item names. Each of the 1 outputs has a 100.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 50.00% chance.

Elite targets

Compare Assassin inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

Buying a higher-priced input in the same grade does not improve these single-collection odds. Price and quality still matter for cost: Strange and Non-Strange cannot be mixed. Read the odds guide or learn how expected profit differs from a guaranteed return.

Violet Vermin Case

Container information · Series #120

Violet Vermin Case

Violet Vermin Case contains items from the Violet Vermin Collection. The case was introduced on 2018-10-15. Requires a Violet Vermin Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Violet Vermin Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary10 items

80.00%

Commando6 items

16.00%

Assassin3 items

3.20%

Elite1 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade
  • Bandit's Boots

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Deadbeats

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Hephaistos' Handcraft

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Highway Star

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Mann-O-War

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Mini-Engy

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Murderer's Motif

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Olympic Leapers

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • The Arachno-Arsonist

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Vampire Vanquisher

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

Commando Grade
  • Aim Assistant

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

  • Athenian Attire

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

  • Dressperado

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

  • Gaelic Glutton

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

  • Pyro in Chinatown

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

  • The Tank Top

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

Assassin Grade
  • Defragmenting Hard Hat 17%

    Assassin · Chance: 1.07%

  • Mr. Quackers

    Assassin · Chance: 1.07%

  • Terror-Antula

    Assassin · Chance: 1.07%

Elite Grade
  • Lucky Cat Hat

    Elite · Chance: 0.80%

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Violet Vermin Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost30.00 ref
Expected value15.31 ref
Expected P/L−14.69 ref
ROI-49.0%
Win chance17%
Cheapest quoted inputMann-O-War3.00 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost63.30 ref
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputMini-Engy6.33 ref each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Bandit's BootsSell listing quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed14.77 refChecks when viewed
Deadbeats4.22 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Hephaistos' Handcraft5.22 refChecks when viewed10.00 refChecks when viewed
Highway Star3.88 refChecks when viewed9.77 refChecks when viewed
Mann-O-War3.00 refChecks when viewedSell listing quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed
Mini-EngySell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed6.33 refChecks when viewed
Murderer's Motif6.38 refChecks when viewed15.22 refChecks when viewed
Olympic LeapersSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed10.88 refChecks when viewed
The Arachno-Arsonist6.44 refChecks when viewed26.55 refChecks when viewed
Vampire VanquisherSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Aim Assistant16.7%10.33 refChecks when viewed44.00 refChecks when viewed
Athenian Attire16.7%8.77 refChecks when viewedBuy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed
Dressperado16.7%6.33 refChecks when viewed25.44 refChecks when viewed
Gaelic Glutton16.7%55.11 refChecks when viewed1 key + 46.00 refChecks when viewed
Pyro in Chinatown16.7%6.77 refChecks when viewed41.66 refChecks when viewed
The Tank Top16.7%4.55 refChecks when viewed23.55 refChecks when viewed

Violet Vermin Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost1 key + 4.47 ref
Expected value59.66 ref
Expected P/L−9.14 ref
ROI-13.3%
Win chance33%
Cheapest quoted inputThe Tank Top6.88 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost3 keys + 57.51 ref
Expected value3 keys + 40.79 ref
Expected P/L−16.72 ref
ROI-6.7%
Win chance33%
Cheapest quoted inputThe Tank Top25.05 ref each

Eligible Commando inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Aim Assistant11.33 refChecks when viewed44.55 refChecks when viewed
Athenian Attire9.00 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Dressperado8.88 refChecks when viewed31.33 refChecks when viewed
Gaelic Glutton61.22 refChecks when viewed1 key + 50.66 refChecks when viewed
Pyro in Chinatown7.00 refChecks when viewed41.88 refChecks when viewed
The Tank Top6.88 refChecks when viewed25.05 refChecks when viewed

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Defragmenting Hard Hat 17%33.3%56.11 refChecks when viewed3 keys + 27.11 refChecks when viewed
Mr. Quackers33.3%1 key + 20.00 refChecks when viewed4 keys + 54.77 refChecks when viewed
Terror-Antula33.3%38.55 refChecks when viewed2 keys + 40.50 refChecks when viewed

Violet Vermin Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost9 keys + 47.63 ref
Expected value6 keys + 5.66 ref
Expected P/L−3 keys − 41.97 ref
ROI-37.5%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputDefragmenting Hard Hat 17%62.66 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost36 keys + 61.72 ref
Expected value25 keys + 19.88 ref
Expected P/L−11 keys − 41.84 ref
ROI-31.5%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputTerror-antula3 keys + 44.77 ref each

Eligible Assassin inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Defragmenting Hard Hat 17%62.66 refChecks when viewed4 keys + 30.77 refChecks when viewed
Mr. Quackers1 key + 22.33 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Terror-AntulaSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed3 keys + 44.77 refChecks when viewed

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Lucky Cat Hat100.0%6 keys + 5.66 refChecks when viewed25 keys + 19.88 refChecks when viewed

How to trade up to Violet Vermin Collection items

How to trade up to Aim Assistant

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Violet Vermin Collection for a 16.67% chance of Aim Assistant, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Aim Assistant trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Athenian Attire

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Violet Vermin Collection for a 16.67% chance of Athenian Attire, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Athenian Attire trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Dressperado

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Violet Vermin Collection for a 16.67% chance of Dressperado, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Dressperado trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Gaelic Glutton

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Violet Vermin Collection for a 16.67% chance of Gaelic Glutton, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Gaelic Glutton trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Pyro in Chinatown

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Violet Vermin Collection for a 16.67% chance of Pyro in Chinatown, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Pyro in Chinatown trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Tank Top

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Violet Vermin Collection for a 16.67% chance of The Tank Top, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Tank Top trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Defragmenting Hard Hat 17%

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Violet Vermin Collection for a 33.33% chance of Defragmenting Hard Hat 17%, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Defragmenting Hard Hat 17% trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Mr. Quackers

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Violet Vermin Collection for a 33.33% chance of Mr. Quackers, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Mr. Quackers trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Terror-Antula

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Violet Vermin Collection for a 33.33% chance of Terror-Antula, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Terror-Antula trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Lucky Cat Hat

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Violet Vermin Collection for a 100.00% chance of Lucky Cat Hat, one of 1 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 50.00%. The ten-input single-collection recipe guarantees the item type, not its selling price or a profit; the mixed recipe does not guarantee the item.

Calculate Lucky Cat Hat trade-up odds →

How Violet Vermin Collection odds work

With ten Violet Vermin Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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