How are Harvest Collection trade-up odds calculated?

In a single-collection contract, every recorded item at the next rarity has an equal chance. In a mixed contract, each input contributes ten percent probability to its collection, then that collection share is divided equally among its possible outputs.

Can Strange and non-Strange items be mixed in one TF2 trade-up?

No. A contract must use either all Strange inputs or all non-Strange inputs. This page displays both markets separately.

TF2 collection guide · Saved market observations

Harvest Collection Trade-Up Guide

Harvest Collection contains 29 decorated weapons across 4 grades, from Civilian to Commando. Its highest-grade items include Boneyard Revolver, Boneyard Sniper Rifle, Boneyard Wrench. Compare the Mercenary-to-Commando trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Commando output.

29Items

3Routes

ReferenceDataset state

Data snapshot Tue, 03 Nov 2026 12:08:18 GMT. Loading the dataset does not recheck every listing; individual quotes can still be missing or stale.

Steam pricing is temporarily paused. Prices use backpack.tf only.

Harvest Collection: choose your target tier

Start with the item you want, then choose the grade immediately below it. Harvest Collection offers 3 adjacent-grade routes. Each row below assumes ten eligible inputs from this collection, with one result per contract; these are not case-opening probabilities.

10 Civilian inputs → 1 Freelance output

Choose among 12 input item names. Each of the 9 outputs has a 11.11% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 5.56% chance.

Freelance targets

Compare Civilian inputs ↓

10 Freelance inputs → 1 Mercenary output

Choose among 9 input item names. Each of the 5 outputs has a 20.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 10.00% chance.

Mercenary targets

Compare Freelance inputs ↓

10 Mercenary inputs → 1 Commando output

Choose among 5 input item names. Each of the 3 outputs has a 33.33% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 16.67% chance.

Commando targets

Compare Mercenary inputs ↓

Buying a higher-priced input in the same grade does not improve these single-collection odds. Price and quality still matter for cost: Strange and Non-Strange cannot be mixed. Read the odds guide or learn how expected profit differs from a guaranteed return.

Collection information

Harvest Collection

Harvest is a Tough Break decorated-weapon collection featuring Autumn, Nutcracker, Wildwood, Macabre Web, Pumpkin Patch and Boneyard finishes. Its highest tier contains three Commando-grade Boneyard weapons.

View collection reference ↗

All Harvest Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade.

No case-opening odds apply to this non-case collection. See the trade-up tiers below for applicable output odds.

Grades in this collection

Civilian12 items

Freelance9 items

Mercenary5 items

Commando3 items

Collection item list

Civilian Grade

Autumn Rocket Launcher
Civilian
Autumn Shotgun
Civilian
Autumn Wrench
Civilian
Nutcracker Flame Thrower
Civilian
Nutcracker Minigun
Civilian
Nutcracker Pistol
Civilian
Nutcracker Scattergun
Civilian
Nutcracker Wrench
Civilian
Wildwood Medi Gun
Civilian
Wildwood Revolver
Civilian
Wildwood SMG
Civilian
Wildwood Sniper Rifle
Civilian

Freelance Grade

Autumn Flame Thrower
Freelance
Autumn Grenade Launcher
Freelance
Autumn Stickybomb Launcher
Freelance
Macabre Web Grenade Launcher
Freelance
Macabre Web Minigun
Freelance
Macabre Web Pistol
Freelance
Macabre Web Revolver
Freelance
Macabre Web Scattergun
Freelance
Macabre Web Stickybomb Launcher
Freelance

Mercenary Grade

Boneyard Knife
Mercenary
Pumpkin Patch Flame Thrower
Mercenary
Pumpkin Patch Minigun
Mercenary
Pumpkin Patch Sniper Rifle
Mercenary
Pumpkin Patch Stickybomb Launcher
Mercenary

Commando Grade

Boneyard Revolver
Commando
Boneyard Sniper Rifle
Commando
Boneyard Wrench
Commando

This non-case collection is a reference guide. Its items are not yet covered by the calculator’s price feed, so no live prices, EV or prefilled contracts are claimed. The grade relationships below describe the catalog, not guaranteed executable trades.

War Paint and decorated-weapon quotes must match both quality and wear. This guide compares Factory New only; select Minimal Wear, Field-Tested, Well-Worn or Battle Scarred in the calculator. Steam pricing is temporarily paused. Backpack.tf wear-specific coverage is limited; missing quotes remain unavailable. A collection’s output wear follows that collection’s inputs, not another collection’s wear.

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Harvest Collection route

Civilian→Freelance

Eligible Civilian inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Autumn Rocket Launcher	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed
Autumn Shotgun	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed
Autumn Wrench	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed
Nutcracker Flame Thrower	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed
Nutcracker Minigun	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed
Nutcracker Pistol	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed
Nutcracker Scattergun	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed
Nutcracker Wrench	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed
Wildwood Medi Gun	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed
Wildwood Revolver	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed
Wildwood SMG	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed
Wildwood Sniper Rifle	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed

Possible Freelance outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid
Autumn Flame Thrower	11.1%	Buy order not yet checkedChecks when viewed	Buy order not yet checkedChecks when viewed
Autumn Grenade Launcher	11.1%	Buy order not yet checkedChecks when viewed	Buy order not yet checkedChecks when viewed
Autumn Stickybomb Launcher	11.1%	Buy order not yet checkedChecks when viewed	Buy order not yet checkedChecks when viewed
Macabre Web Grenade Launcher	11.1%	Buy order not yet checkedChecks when viewed	Buy order not yet checkedChecks when viewed
Macabre Web Minigun	11.1%	Buy order not yet checkedChecks when viewed	Buy order not yet checkedChecks when viewed
Macabre Web Pistol	11.1%	Buy order not yet checkedChecks when viewed	Buy order not yet checkedChecks when viewed
Macabre Web Revolver	11.1%	Buy order not yet checkedChecks when viewed	Buy order not yet checkedChecks when viewed
Macabre Web Scattergun	11.1%	Buy order not yet checkedChecks when viewed	Buy order not yet checkedChecks when viewed
Macabre Web Stickybomb Launcher	11.1%	Buy order not yet checkedChecks when viewed	Buy order not yet checkedChecks when viewed

Harvest Collection route

Freelance→Mercenary

Eligible Freelance inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Autumn Flame Thrower	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed
Autumn Grenade Launcher	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed
Autumn Stickybomb Launcher	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed
Macabre Web Grenade Launcher	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed
Macabre Web Minigun	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed
Macabre Web Pistol	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed
Macabre Web Revolver	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed
Macabre Web Scattergun	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed
Macabre Web Stickybomb Launcher	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed

Possible Mercenary outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid
Boneyard Knife	20.0%	Buy order not yet checkedChecks when viewed	Buy order not yet checkedChecks when viewed
Pumpkin Patch Flame Thrower	20.0%	Buy order not yet checkedChecks when viewed	Buy order not yet checkedChecks when viewed
Pumpkin Patch Minigun	20.0%	Buy order not yet checkedChecks when viewed	Buy order not yet checkedChecks when viewed
Pumpkin Patch Sniper Rifle	20.0%	Buy order not yet checkedChecks when viewed	Buy order not yet checkedChecks when viewed
Pumpkin Patch Stickybomb Launcher	20.0%	Buy order not yet checkedChecks when viewed	Buy order not yet checkedChecks when viewed

Harvest Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Eligible Mercenary inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Boneyard Knife	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed
Pumpkin Patch Flame Thrower	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed
Pumpkin Patch Minigun	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed
Pumpkin Patch Sniper Rifle	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed
Pumpkin Patch Stickybomb Launcher	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed	Sell listing not yet checkedChecks when viewed

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid
Boneyard Revolver	33.3%	Buy order not yet checkedChecks when viewed	Buy order not yet checkedChecks when viewed
Boneyard Sniper Rifle	33.3%	Buy order not yet checkedChecks when viewed	Buy order not yet checkedChecks when viewed
Boneyard Wrench	33.3%	Buy order not yet checkedChecks when viewed	Buy order not yet checkedChecks when viewed

How to trade up to Harvest Collection items

How to trade up to Autumn Flame Thrower

Use ten eligible Civilian inputs from Harvest Collection for a 11.11% chance of Autumn Flame Thrower, one of 9 Freelance outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 5.56%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

How to trade up to Autumn Grenade Launcher

Use ten eligible Civilian inputs from Harvest Collection for a 11.11% chance of Autumn Grenade Launcher, one of 9 Freelance outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 5.56%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

How to trade up to Autumn Stickybomb Launcher

Use ten eligible Civilian inputs from Harvest Collection for a 11.11% chance of Autumn Stickybomb Launcher, one of 9 Freelance outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 5.56%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

How to trade up to Macabre Web Grenade Launcher

Use ten eligible Civilian inputs from Harvest Collection for a 11.11% chance of Macabre Web Grenade Launcher, one of 9 Freelance outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 5.56%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

How to trade up to Macabre Web Minigun

Use ten eligible Civilian inputs from Harvest Collection for a 11.11% chance of Macabre Web Minigun, one of 9 Freelance outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 5.56%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

How to trade up to Macabre Web Pistol

Use ten eligible Civilian inputs from Harvest Collection for a 11.11% chance of Macabre Web Pistol, one of 9 Freelance outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 5.56%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

How to trade up to Macabre Web Revolver

Use ten eligible Civilian inputs from Harvest Collection for a 11.11% chance of Macabre Web Revolver, one of 9 Freelance outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 5.56%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

How to trade up to Macabre Web Scattergun

Use ten eligible Civilian inputs from Harvest Collection for a 11.11% chance of Macabre Web Scattergun, one of 9 Freelance outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 5.56%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

How to trade up to Macabre Web Stickybomb Launcher

Use ten eligible Civilian inputs from Harvest Collection for a 11.11% chance of Macabre Web Stickybomb Launcher, one of 9 Freelance outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 5.56%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

How to trade up to Boneyard Knife

Use ten eligible Freelance inputs from Harvest Collection for a 20.00% chance of Boneyard Knife, one of 5 Mercenary outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

How to trade up to Pumpkin Patch Flame Thrower

Use ten eligible Freelance inputs from Harvest Collection for a 20.00% chance of Pumpkin Patch Flame Thrower, one of 5 Mercenary outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

How to trade up to Pumpkin Patch Minigun

Use ten eligible Freelance inputs from Harvest Collection for a 20.00% chance of Pumpkin Patch Minigun, one of 5 Mercenary outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

How to trade up to Pumpkin Patch Sniper Rifle

Use ten eligible Freelance inputs from Harvest Collection for a 20.00% chance of Pumpkin Patch Sniper Rifle, one of 5 Mercenary outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

How to trade up to Pumpkin Patch Stickybomb Launcher

Use ten eligible Freelance inputs from Harvest Collection for a 20.00% chance of Pumpkin Patch Stickybomb Launcher, one of 5 Mercenary outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

How to trade up to Boneyard Revolver

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Harvest Collection for a 33.33% chance of Boneyard Revolver, one of 3 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

How to trade up to Boneyard Sniper Rifle

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Harvest Collection for a 33.33% chance of Boneyard Sniper Rifle, one of 3 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

How to trade up to Boneyard Wrench

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Harvest Collection for a 33.33% chance of Boneyard Wrench, one of 3 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

How Harvest Collection odds work

With ten Harvest Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

Explore related TF2 collections

Concealed Killer Collection items & trade-up odds →

Craftsmann Collection items & trade-up odds →

Gentlemanne's Collection items & trade-up odds →

Powerhouse Collection items & trade-up odds →

Browse every TF2 collection