How are Summer 2025 Cosmetics Collection trade-up odds calculated?

In a single-collection contract, every recorded item at the next rarity has an equal chance. In a mixed contract, each input contributes ten percent probability to its collection, then that collection share is divided equally among its possible outputs.

Can Strange and non-Strange items be mixed in one TF2 trade-up?

No. A contract must use either all Strange inputs or all non-Strange inputs. This page displays both markets separately.

TF2 collection guide · Live calculator data

Summer 2025 Cosmetics Collection Trade-Up Guide

Summer 2025 Cosmetics Collection contains 23 items across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade item is Team Cap. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

23Items

3Routes

CheckingPrice state

Data snapshot Tue, 08 Sep 2026 22:02:16 GMT

Container information · Series #148

Summer 2025 Cosmetic Case

Summer 2025 Cosmetic Case contains items from the Summer 2025 Cosmetics Collection. The case was introduced on 2025-07-17. Requires a Summer 2025 Cosmetic Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Summer 2025 Cosmetics Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary10 items

80.00%

Commando8 items

16.00%

Assassin4 items

3.20%

Elite1 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade

Cattleman's Kettle
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
Clinical Investigator
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
Esprit De Corps
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
Frogmann's Fittings
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
Hunk Of Monk
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
Jarhead
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
Le Sapeur
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
Mann of the Hour
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
Shady Shelby
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
Spy Ties
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

Commando Grade

Blindin' Bonnett
Commando · Chance: 2.00%
Fat Friar
Commando · Chance: 2.00%
Hardcore Pantalon
Commando · Chance: 2.00%
Le Morne Uniforme
Commando · Chance: 2.00%
Oxygen Provider
Commando · Chance: 2.00%
Shadow of Doubt
Commando · Chance: 2.00%
Sir Buildsalot
Commando · Chance: 2.00%
The Headliner
Commando · Chance: 2.00%

Assassin Grade

Case of the Blues
Assassin · Chance: 0.80%
Mr. Rostov
Assassin · Chance: 0.80%
Short Fuse
Assassin · Chance: 0.80%
The Abyss Diver
Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

Elite Grade

Team Cap
Elite · Chance: 0.80%

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Summer 2025 Cosmetics Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost31.10 ref

Expected valueIncomplete quotes

Expected P/LIncomplete quotes

ROIIncomplete quotes

Win chanceIncomplete quotes

Cheapest quoted inputCattleman's Kettle3.11 ref each

Strange

strange

10× cost50.00 ref

Expected valueIncomplete quotes

Expected P/LIncomplete quotes

ROIIncomplete quotes

Win chanceIncomplete quotes

Cheapest quoted inputHunk Of Monk5.00 ref each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Cattleman's Kettle	3.11 ref	5.88 ref
Clinical Investigator	18.00 ref	39.55 ref
Esprit De Corps	30.22 ref	1 key + 2.66 ref
Frogmann's Fittings	No eligible quote	13.44 ref
Hunk Of Monk	3.55 ref	5.00 ref
Jarhead	7.11 ref	18.33 ref
Le Sapeur	No eligible quote	5.66 ref
Mann of the Hour	3.11 ref	6.44 ref
Shady Shelby	3.22 ref	11.88 ref
Spy Ties	No eligible quote	6.11 ref

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid
Blindin' Bonnett	12.5%	No eligible quote	No eligible quote
Fat Friar	12.5%	14.33 ref	33.77 ref
Hardcore Pantalon	12.5%	2 keys + 2.88 ref	3 keys + 7.00 ref
Le Morne Uniforme	12.5%	29.77 ref	54.55 ref
Oxygen Provider	12.5%	4.22 ref	18.66 ref
Shadow of Doubt	12.5%	25.00 ref	1 key + 5.66 ref
Sir Buildsalot	12.5%	15.55 ref	36.00 ref
The Headliner	12.5%	22.11 ref	42.11 ref

Summer 2025 Cosmetics Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost51.10 ref

Expected value48.85 ref

Expected P/L−2.25 ref

ROI-4.4%

Win chance25%

Cheapest quoted inputOxygen Provider5.11 ref each

Strange

strange

10× cost5 keys + 60.55 ref

Expected value1 key + 24.08 ref

Expected P/L−4 keys − 36.47 ref

ROI-76.9%

Win chance0%

Cheapest quoted inputSir Buildsalot38.22 ref each

Eligible Commando inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Blindin' Bonnett	No eligible quote	No eligible quote
Fat Friar	14.77 ref	45.00 ref
Hardcore Pantalon	2 keys + 6.33 ref	4 keys + 7.00 ref
Le Morne Uniforme	No eligible quote	59.22 ref
Oxygen Provider	5.11 ref	No eligible quote
Shadow of Doubt	26.22 ref	1 key + 7.66 ref
Sir Buildsalot	No eligible quote	38.22 ref
The Headliner	No eligible quote	57.55 ref

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid
Case of the Blues	25.0%	15.44 ref	1 key + 3.88 ref
Mr. Rostov	25.0%	2 keys + 19.88 ref	2 keys + 30.22 ref
Short Fuse	25.0%	6.55 ref	41.00 ref
The Abyss Diver	25.0%	24.88 ref	1 key + 21.22 ref

Summer 2025 Cosmetics Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost1 key + 18.97 ref

Expected value32.44 ref

Expected P/L−50.86 ref

ROI-61.1%

Win chance0%

Cheapest quoted inputShort Fuse8.33 ref each

Strange

strange

10× cost12 keys + 1.34 ref

Expected value2 keys + 35.44 ref

Expected P/L−9 keys − 30.23 ref

ROI-78.8%

Win chance0%

Cheapest quoted inputCase of the Blues1 key + 13.00 ref each

Eligible Assassin inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Case of the Blues	15.50 ref	1 key + 13.00 ref
Mr. Rostov	No eligible quote	No eligible quote
Short Fuse	8.33 ref	No eligible quote
The Abyss Diver	37.22 ref	1 key + 45.66 ref

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid	Markets
Team Cap	100.0%	32.44 ref	2 keys + 35.44 ref

How to trade up to Summer 2025 Cosmetics Collection items

How to trade up to Blindin' Bonnett

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2025 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Blindin' Bonnett, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Blindin' Bonnett trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Fat Friar

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2025 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Fat Friar, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Fat Friar trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Hardcore Pantalon

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2025 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Hardcore Pantalon, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Hardcore Pantalon trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Le Morne Uniforme

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2025 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Le Morne Uniforme, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Le Morne Uniforme trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Oxygen Provider

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2025 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Oxygen Provider, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Oxygen Provider trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Shadow of Doubt

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2025 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Shadow of Doubt, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Shadow of Doubt trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Sir Buildsalot

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2025 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Sir Buildsalot, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Sir Buildsalot trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Headliner

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2025 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of The Headliner, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Headliner trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Case of the Blues

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Summer 2025 Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of Case of the Blues, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Case of the Blues trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Mr. Rostov

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Summer 2025 Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of Mr. Rostov, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Mr. Rostov trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Short Fuse

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Summer 2025 Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of Short Fuse, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Short Fuse trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Abyss Diver

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Summer 2025 Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of The Abyss Diver, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Abyss Diver trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Team Cap

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Summer 2025 Cosmetics Collection for a 100.00% chance of Team Cap, one of 1 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 50.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Team Cap trade-up odds →

How Summer 2025 Cosmetics Collection odds work

With ten Summer 2025 Cosmetics Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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