T2TF2TradeUps.comOpen calculator

TF2 collection guide · Saved market observations

Summer 2025 Cosmetics Collection Trade-Up Guide

Summer 2025 Cosmetics Collection contains 23 items across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade item is Team Cap. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

23Items
3Routes
LoadingDataset state
Data snapshot . Loading the dataset does not recheck every listing; individual quotes can still be missing or stale.

Steam pricing is temporarily paused. Prices use backpack.tf only.

Summer 2025 Cosmetics Collection: choose your target tier

Start with the item you want, then choose the grade immediately below it. Summer 2025 Cosmetics Collection offers 3 adjacent-grade routes. Each row below assumes ten eligible inputs from this collection, with one result per contract; these are not case-opening probabilities.

10 Mercenary inputs → 1 Commando output

Choose among 10 input item names. Each of the 8 outputs has a 12.50% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 6.25% chance.

Commando targets

Compare Mercenary inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Commando inputs → 1 Assassin output

Choose among 8 input item names. Each of the 4 outputs has a 25.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 12.50% chance.

Assassin targets

Compare Commando inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Assassin inputs → 1 Elite output

Choose among 4 input item names. Each of the 1 outputs has a 100.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 50.00% chance.

Elite targets

Compare Assassin inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

Buying a higher-priced input in the same grade does not improve these single-collection odds. Price and quality still matter for cost: Strange and Non-Strange cannot be mixed. Read the odds guide or learn how expected profit differs from a guaranteed return.

Summer 2025 Cosmetic Case

Container information · Series #148

Summer 2025 Cosmetic Case

Summer 2025 Cosmetic Case contains items from the Summer 2025 Cosmetics Collection. The case was introduced on 2025-07-17. Requires a Summer 2025 Cosmetic Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Summer 2025 Cosmetics Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary10 items

80.00%

Commando8 items

16.00%

Assassin4 items

3.20%

Elite1 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade
  • Cattleman's Kettle

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Clinical Investigator

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Esprit De Corps

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Frogmann's Fittings

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Hunk Of Monk

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Jarhead

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Le Sapeur

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Mann of the Hour

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Shady Shelby

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Spy Ties

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

Commando Grade
  • Blindin' Bonnett

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

  • Fat Friar

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

  • Hardcore Pantalon

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

  • Le Morne Uniforme

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

  • Oxygen Provider

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

  • Shadow of Doubt

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

  • Sir Buildsalot

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

  • The Headliner

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

Assassin Grade
  • Case of the Blues

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

  • Mr. Rostov

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

  • Short Fuse

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

  • The Abyss Diver

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

Elite Grade
  • Team Cap

    Elite · Chance: 0.80%

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Summer 2025 Cosmetics Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost30.00 ref
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputHunk Of Monk3.00 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost54.40 ref
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputSpy Ties5.44 ref each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Cattleman's KettleSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed6.11 refChecks when viewed
Clinical Investigator14.44 refChecks when viewed31.55 refChecks when viewed
Esprit De Corps20.11 refChecks when viewed60.88 refChecks when viewed
Frogmann's Fittings5.11 refChecks when viewed15.88 refChecks when viewed
Hunk Of Monk3.00 refChecks when viewed5.66 refChecks when viewed
Jarhead7.11 refChecks when viewed19.44 refChecks when viewed
Le Sapeur3.11 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Mann of the Hour3.11 refChecks when viewed6.00 refChecks when viewed
Shady Shelby3.11 refChecks when viewed9.44 refChecks when viewed
Spy TiesSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed5.44 refChecks when viewed

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Blindin' Bonnett12.5%Buy order scan pendingChecks when viewedBuy order scan pendingChecks when viewed
Fat Friar12.5%14.77 refChecks when viewed39.22 refChecks when viewed
Hardcore Pantalon12.5%1 key + 38.11 refChecks when viewed3 keys + 35.38 refChecks when viewed
Le Morne Uniforme12.5%23.72 refChecks when viewedBuy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed
Oxygen Provider12.5%3.55 refChecks when viewed19.22 refChecks when viewed
Shadow of Doubt12.5%22.88 refChecks when viewed1 key + 3.00 refChecks when viewed
Sir Buildsalot12.5%12.44 refChecks when viewed42.88 refChecks when viewed
The Headliner12.5%20.55 refChecks when viewed51.33 refChecks when viewed

Summer 2025 Cosmetics Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost43.30 ref
Expected value39.83 ref
Expected P/L−3.47 ref
ROI-8.0%
Win chance25%
Cheapest quoted inputOxygen Provider4.33 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost3 keys + 2.51 ref
Expected value1 key + 38.83 ref
Expected P/L−1 key − 28.01 ref
ROI-47.2%
Win chance25%
Cheapest quoted inputOxygen Provider19.55 ref each

Eligible Commando inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Blindin' BonnettSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Fat FriarSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed41.55 refChecks when viewed
Hardcore Pantalon1 key + 43.00 refChecks when viewed4 keys + 19.88 refChecks when viewed
Le Morne Uniforme25.00 refChecks when viewedSell listing quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed
Oxygen Provider4.33 refChecks when viewed19.55 refChecks when viewed
Shadow of Doubt23.66 refChecks when viewed1 key + 4.00 refChecks when viewed
Sir Buildsalot13.00 refChecks when viewed43.66 refChecks when viewed
The Headliner22.22 refChecks when viewed58.11 refChecks when viewed

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Case of the Blues25.0%14.00 refChecks when viewed1 key + 3.33 refChecks when viewed
Mr. Rostov25.0%1 key + 46.88 refChecks when viewed3 keys + 9.77 refChecks when viewed
Short Fuse25.0%9.11 refChecks when viewed45.77 refChecks when viewed
The Abyss Diver25.0%25.00 refChecks when viewed1 key + 32.11 refChecks when viewed

Summer 2025 Cosmetics Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost1 key + 36.77 ref
Expected value31.55 ref
Expected P/L−1 key − 5.22 ref
ROI-68.8%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputShort Fuse10.11 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost9 keys + 7.63 ref
Expected value2 keys + 10.55 ref
Expected P/L−6 keys − 61.41 ref
ROI-76.3%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputShort Fuse58.66 ref each

Eligible Assassin inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Case of the Blues15.33 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Mr. Rostov1 key + 48.66 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Short Fuse10.11 refChecks when viewed58.66 refChecks when viewed
The Abyss Diver29.88 refChecks when viewed1 key + 32.88 refChecks when viewed

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Team Cap100.0%31.55 refChecks when viewed2 keys + 10.55 refChecks when viewed

How to trade up to Summer 2025 Cosmetics Collection items

How to trade up to Blindin' Bonnett

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2025 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Blindin' Bonnett, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Blindin' Bonnett trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Fat Friar

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2025 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Fat Friar, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Fat Friar trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Hardcore Pantalon

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2025 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Hardcore Pantalon, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Hardcore Pantalon trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Le Morne Uniforme

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2025 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Le Morne Uniforme, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Le Morne Uniforme trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Oxygen Provider

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2025 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Oxygen Provider, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Oxygen Provider trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Shadow of Doubt

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2025 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Shadow of Doubt, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Shadow of Doubt trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Sir Buildsalot

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2025 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Sir Buildsalot, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Sir Buildsalot trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Headliner

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2025 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of The Headliner, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Headliner trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Case of the Blues

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Summer 2025 Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of Case of the Blues, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Case of the Blues trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Mr. Rostov

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Summer 2025 Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of Mr. Rostov, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Mr. Rostov trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Short Fuse

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Summer 2025 Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of Short Fuse, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Short Fuse trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Abyss Diver

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Summer 2025 Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of The Abyss Diver, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Abyss Diver trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Team Cap

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Summer 2025 Cosmetics Collection for a 100.00% chance of Team Cap, one of 1 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 50.00%. The ten-input single-collection recipe guarantees the item type, not its selling price or a profit; the mixed recipe does not guarantee the item.

Calculate Team Cap trade-up odds →

How Summer 2025 Cosmetics Collection odds work

With ten Summer 2025 Cosmetics Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

Explore related TF2 collections

Abominable Cosmetic CaseAbominable Cosmetic Collection items & trade-up odds →Blue Moon Cosmetic CaseBlue Moon Cosmetics Collection items & trade-up odds →Bone-Chilling Bonanza CaseBone-Chilling Bonanza Collection items & trade-up odds →Confidential Collection CaseConfidential Collection items & trade-up odds →
Browse every TF2 collection

Anonymous action totals help improve this site. No visitor IDs are attached to those totals. Privacy details