T2TF2TradeUps.comOpen calculator

TF2 collection guide · Saved market observations

Spooky Spoils Collection Trade-Up Guide

Spooky Spoils Collection contains 22 items across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade items include Mister Bones, Pyr'o Lantern. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

22Items
3Routes
LoadingDataset state
Data snapshot . Loading the dataset does not recheck every listing; individual quotes can still be missing or stale.

Steam pricing is temporarily paused. Prices use backpack.tf only.

Spooky Spoils Collection: choose your target tier

Start with the item you want, then choose the grade immediately below it. Spooky Spoils Collection offers 3 adjacent-grade routes. Each row below assumes ten eligible inputs from this collection, with one result per contract; these are not case-opening probabilities.

10 Mercenary inputs → 1 Commando output

Choose among 10 input item names. Each of the 6 outputs has a 16.67% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 8.33% chance.

Commando targets

Compare Mercenary inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Commando inputs → 1 Assassin output

Choose among 6 input item names. Each of the 4 outputs has a 25.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 12.50% chance.

Assassin targets

Compare Commando inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Assassin inputs → 1 Elite output

Choose among 4 input item names. Each of the 2 outputs has a 50.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 25.00% chance.

Elite targets

Compare Assassin inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

Buying a higher-priced input in the same grade does not improve these single-collection odds. Price and quality still matter for cost: Strange and Non-Strange cannot be mixed. Read the odds guide or learn how expected profit differs from a guaranteed return.

Spooky Spoils Case

Container information · Series #124

Spooky Spoils Case

Spooky Spoils Case contains items from the Spooky Spoils Collection. The case was introduced on 2019-10-01. Requires a Spooky Spoils Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Spooky Spoils Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary10 items

80.00%

Commando6 items

16.00%

Assassin4 items

3.20%

Elite2 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade
  • Bat Hat

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • BINOCULUS!

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Bread Biter

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Candy Cranium

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Convict Cap

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Derangement Garment

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • El Mostacho

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Fuel Injector

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Party Poncho

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Pocket Halloween Boss

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

Commando Grade
  • El Zapateador

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

  • Madmann's Muzzle

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

  • Skullbrero

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

  • Soviet Strongmann

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

  • The Horrible Horns

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

  • Voodoo Vizier

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

Assassin Grade
  • Elizabeth the Third

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

  • Head of the Dead

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

  • Racc Mann

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

  • The Trick Stabber

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

Elite Grade
  • Mister Bones

    Elite · Chance: 0.40%

  • Pyr'o Lantern

    Elite · Chance: 0.40%

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Spooky Spoils Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost30.00 ref
Expected value12.75 ref
Expected P/L−17.25 ref
ROI-57.5%
Win chance17%
Cheapest quoted inputBat Hat3.00 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost55.50 ref
Expected value48.04 ref
Expected P/L−7.46 ref
ROI-13.4%
Win chance17%
Cheapest quoted inputBat Hat5.55 ref each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Bat Hat3.00 refChecks when viewed5.55 refChecks when viewed
BINOCULUS!Sell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Bread Biter6.66 refChecks when viewed15.77 refChecks when viewed
Candy Cranium3.00 refChecks when viewed6.00 refChecks when viewed
Convict Cap3.11 refChecks when viewed5.55 refChecks when viewed
Derangement Garment5.44 refChecks when viewed20.88 refChecks when viewed
El Mostacho3.00 refChecks when viewed11.22 refChecks when viewed
Fuel InjectorSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Party Poncho3.44 refChecks when viewed9.44 refChecks when viewed
Pocket Halloween BossSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed6.88 refChecks when viewed

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
El Zapateador16.7%8.88 refChecks when viewed25.22 refChecks when viewed
Madmann's Muzzle16.7%8.55 refChecks when viewed30.55 refChecks when viewed
Skullbrero16.7%7.55 refChecks when viewed46.33 refChecks when viewed
Soviet Strongmann16.7%8.77 refChecks when viewed29.00 refChecks when viewed
The Horrible Horns16.7%33.77 refChecks when viewed2 keys + 0.61 refChecks when viewed
Voodoo Vizier16.7%9.00 refChecks when viewed27.88 refChecks when viewed

Spooky Spoils Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost1 key + 15.67 ref
Expected value1 key + 25.80 ref
Expected P/L+10.13 ref
ROI12.7%
Win chance50%
Cheapest quoted inputSkullbrero8.00 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost3 keys + 62.51 ref
Expected value3 keys + 52.70 ref
Expected P/L−9.81 ref
ROI-3.8%
Win chance25%
Cheapest quoted inputEl Zapateador25.55 ref each

Eligible Commando inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
El ZapateadorSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed25.55 refChecks when viewed
Madmann's MuzzleSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed36.11 refChecks when viewed
Skullbrero8.00 refChecks when viewed48.00 refChecks when viewed
Soviet Strongmann9.11 refChecks when viewed31.66 refChecks when viewed
The Horrible Horns38.55 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Voodoo Vizier9.44 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Elizabeth the Third25.0%16.22 refChecks when viewed1 key + 51.66 refChecks when viewed
Head of the Dead25.0%3 keys + 54.33 refChecks when viewed8 keys + 39.27 refChecks when viewed
Racc Mann25.0%1 key + 20.11 refChecks when viewed3 keys + 61.11 refChecks when viewed
The Trick Stabber25.0%12.55 refChecks when viewed58.77 refChecks when viewed

Spooky Spoils Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost2 keys + 10.14 ref
Expected value58.10 ref
Expected P/L−1 key − 16.36 ref
ROI-58.1%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputThe Trick Stabber13.88 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost9 keys + 21.03 ref
Expected value2 keys + 56.99 ref
Expected P/L−6 keys − 28.37 ref
ROI-69.1%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputThe Trick Stabber60.00 ref each

Eligible Assassin inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Elizabeth the Third17.61 refChecks when viewed1 key + 54.22 refChecks when viewed
Head of the Dead4 keys + 2.55 refChecks when viewed8 keys + 37.66 refChecks when viewed
Racc MannSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed4 keys + 14.44 refChecks when viewed
The Trick Stabber13.88 refChecks when viewed60.00 refChecks when viewed

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Mister Bones50.0%48.33 refChecks when viewed2 keys + 63.55 refChecks when viewed
Pyr'o Lantern50.0%1 key + 3.55 refChecks when viewed2 keys + 50.44 refChecks when viewed

How to trade up to Spooky Spoils Collection items

How to trade up to El Zapateador

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Spooky Spoils Collection for a 16.67% chance of El Zapateador, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate El Zapateador trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Madmann's Muzzle

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Spooky Spoils Collection for a 16.67% chance of Madmann's Muzzle, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Madmann's Muzzle trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Skullbrero

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Spooky Spoils Collection for a 16.67% chance of Skullbrero, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Skullbrero trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Soviet Strongmann

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Spooky Spoils Collection for a 16.67% chance of Soviet Strongmann, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Soviet Strongmann trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Horrible Horns

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Spooky Spoils Collection for a 16.67% chance of The Horrible Horns, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Horrible Horns trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Voodoo Vizier

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Spooky Spoils Collection for a 16.67% chance of Voodoo Vizier, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Voodoo Vizier trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Elizabeth the Third

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Spooky Spoils Collection for a 25.00% chance of Elizabeth the Third, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Elizabeth the Third trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Head of the Dead

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Spooky Spoils Collection for a 25.00% chance of Head of the Dead, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Head of the Dead trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Racc Mann

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Spooky Spoils Collection for a 25.00% chance of Racc Mann, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Racc Mann trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Trick Stabber

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Spooky Spoils Collection for a 25.00% chance of The Trick Stabber, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Trick Stabber trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Mister Bones

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Spooky Spoils Collection for a 50.00% chance of Mister Bones, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Mister Bones trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Pyr'o Lantern

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Spooky Spoils Collection for a 50.00% chance of Pyr'o Lantern, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Pyr'o Lantern trade-up odds →

How Spooky Spoils Collection odds work

With ten Spooky Spoils Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

Explore related TF2 collections

Abominable Cosmetic CaseAbominable Cosmetic Collection items & trade-up odds →Blue Moon Cosmetic CaseBlue Moon Cosmetics Collection items & trade-up odds →Bone-Chilling Bonanza CaseBone-Chilling Bonanza Collection items & trade-up odds →Confidential Collection CaseConfidential Collection items & trade-up odds →
Browse every TF2 collection

Anonymous action totals help improve this site. No visitor IDs are attached to those totals. Privacy details