How are Winter 2017 Cosmetics Collection trade-up odds calculated?

In a single-collection contract, every recorded item at the next rarity has an equal chance. In a mixed contract, each input contributes ten percent probability to its collection, then that collection share is divided equally among its possible outputs.

Can Strange and non-Strange items be mixed in one TF2 trade-up?

No. A contract must use either all Strange inputs or all non-Strange inputs. This page displays both markets separately.

TF2 collection guide · Live calculator data

Winter 2017 Cosmetics Collection Trade-Up Guide

Winter 2017 Cosmetics Collection contains 20 items across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade items include Balloonihoodie, Hungover Hero. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

20Items

3Routes

CheckingPrice state

Data snapshot Tue, 08 Sep 2026 21:59:56 GMT

Container information · Series #117

Winter 2017 Cosmetic Case

Winter 2017 Cosmetic Case contains items from the Winter 2017 Cosmetics Collection. The case was introduced on 2017-12-19. Requires a Winter 2017 Cosmetic Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Winter 2017 Cosmetics Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary10 items

80.00%

Commando5 items

16.00%

Assassin3 items

3.20%

Elite2 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade

Blast Blocker
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
Brass Bucket
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
Down Tundra Coat
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
Pocket Santa
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
Pocket Yeti
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
Polar Bear
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
Puffy Polar Cap
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
The Caribou Companion
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
The Sinner's Shade
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
Trucker's Topper
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

Commando Grade

Burning Beanie
Commando · Chance: 3.20%
Coldfront Commander
Commando · Chance: 3.20%
Melody Of Misery
Commando · Chance: 3.20%
Sledder's Sidekick
Commando · Chance: 3.20%
Wild West Whiskers
Commando · Chance: 3.20%

Assassin Grade

Coldfront Carapace
Assassin · Chance: 1.07%
The Cat's Pajamas
Assassin · Chance: 1.07%
The Handsome Hitman
Assassin · Chance: 1.07%

Elite Grade

Balloonihoodie
Elite · Chance: 0.40%
Hungover Hero
Elite · Chance: 0.40%

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Winter 2017 Cosmetics Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost30.00 ref

Expected value17.73 ref

Expected P/L−12.27 ref

ROI-40.9%

Win chance0%

Cheapest quoted inputPocket Santa3.00 ref each

Strange

strange

10× cost40.00 ref

Expected value47.68 ref

Expected P/L+7.68 ref

ROI19.2%

Win chance40%

Cheapest quoted inputPuffy Polar Cap4.00 ref each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Blast Blocker	9.44 ref	23.22 ref
Brass Bucket	3.22 ref	7.88 ref
Down Tundra Coat	3.11 ref	6.55 ref
Pocket Santa	3.00 ref	5.44 ref
Pocket Yeti	3.11 ref	No eligible quote
Polar Bear	3.33 ref	6.55 ref
Puffy Polar Cap	3.11 ref	4.00 ref
The Caribou Companion	3.11 ref	No eligible quote
The Sinner's Shade	3.11 ref	No eligible quote
Trucker's Topper	3.11 ref	6.00 ref

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid
Burning Beanie	20.0%	13.33 ref	30.33 ref
Coldfront Commander	20.0%	29.44 ref	52.66 ref
Melody Of Misery	20.0%	15.66 ref	28.77 ref
Sledder's Sidekick	20.0%	14.66 ref	1 key + 35.11 ref
Wild West Whiskers	20.0%	15.55 ref	27.22 ref

Winter 2017 Cosmetics Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost2 keys + 13.54 ref

Expected value2 keys + 14.74 ref

Expected P/L+1.20 ref

ROI0.8%

Win chance33%

Cheapest quoted inputBurning Beanie14.22 ref each

Strange

strange

10× cost4 keys + 32.68 ref

Expected value4 keys + 49.96 ref

Expected P/L+17.28 ref

ROI6.0%

Win chance33%

Cheapest quoted inputMelody Of Misery29.00 ref each

Eligible Commando inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Burning Beanie	14.22 ref	31.22 ref
Coldfront Commander	30.00 ref	55.22 ref
Melody Of Misery	16.44 ref	29.00 ref
Sledder's Sidekick	15.77 ref	1 key + 33.88 ref
Wild West Whiskers	16.44 ref	30.77 ref

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid
Coldfront Carapace	33.3%	1 key + 11.66 ref	3 keys + 6.66 ref
The Cat's Pajamas	33.3%	4 keys + 54.11 ref	9 keys + 24.55 ref
The Handsome Hitman	33.3%	42.77 ref	1 key + 54.33 ref

Winter 2017 Cosmetics Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost6 keys + 40.62 ref

Expected value3 keys + 44.55 ref

Expected P/L−2 keys − 60.39 ref

ROI-44.3%

Win chance0%

Cheapest quoted inputThe Handsome Hitman42.66 ref each

Strange

strange

10× cost18 keys + 58.66 ref

Expected value8 keys + 10.60 ref

Expected P/L−10 keys − 48.05 ref

ROI-56.8%

Win chance0%

Cheapest quoted inputThe Handsome Hitman1 key + 57.33 ref each

Eligible Assassin inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Coldfront Carapace	1 key + 19.33 ref	3 keys + 30.66 ref
The Cat's Pajamas	5 keys + 10.33 ref	9 keys + 45.77 ref
The Handsome Hitman	42.66 ref	1 key + 57.33 ref

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid	Markets
Balloonihoodie	50.0%	6 keys + 36.00 ref	14 keys + 10.77 ref
Hungover Hero	50.0%	53.11 ref	2 keys + 10.44 ref

How to trade up to Winter 2017 Cosmetics Collection items

How to trade up to Burning Beanie

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2017 Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of Burning Beanie, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Burning Beanie trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Coldfront Commander

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2017 Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of Coldfront Commander, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Coldfront Commander trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Melody Of Misery

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2017 Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of Melody Of Misery, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Melody Of Misery trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Sledder's Sidekick

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2017 Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of Sledder's Sidekick, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Sledder's Sidekick trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Wild West Whiskers

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2017 Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of Wild West Whiskers, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Wild West Whiskers trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Coldfront Carapace

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Winter 2017 Cosmetics Collection for a 33.33% chance of Coldfront Carapace, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Coldfront Carapace trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Cat's Pajamas

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Winter 2017 Cosmetics Collection for a 33.33% chance of The Cat's Pajamas, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Cat's Pajamas trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Handsome Hitman

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Winter 2017 Cosmetics Collection for a 33.33% chance of The Handsome Hitman, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Handsome Hitman trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Balloonihoodie

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Winter 2017 Cosmetics Collection for a 50.00% chance of Balloonihoodie, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Balloonihoodie trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Hungover Hero

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Winter 2017 Cosmetics Collection for a 50.00% chance of Hungover Hero, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Hungover Hero trade-up odds →

How Winter 2017 Cosmetics Collection odds work

With ten Winter 2017 Cosmetics Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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