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TF2 collection guide · Saved market observations

Winter 2017 Cosmetics Collection Trade-Up Guide

Winter 2017 Cosmetics Collection contains 20 items across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade items include Balloonihoodie, Hungover Hero. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

20Items
3Routes
LoadingDataset state
Data snapshot . Loading the dataset does not recheck every listing; individual quotes can still be missing or stale.

Steam pricing is temporarily paused. Prices use backpack.tf only.

Winter 2017 Cosmetics Collection: choose your target tier

Start with the item you want, then choose the grade immediately below it. Winter 2017 Cosmetics Collection offers 3 adjacent-grade routes. Each row below assumes ten eligible inputs from this collection, with one result per contract; these are not case-opening probabilities.

10 Mercenary inputs → 1 Commando output

Choose among 10 input item names. Each of the 5 outputs has a 20.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 10.00% chance.

Commando targets

Compare Mercenary inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Commando inputs → 1 Assassin output

Choose among 5 input item names. Each of the 3 outputs has a 33.33% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 16.67% chance.

Assassin targets

Compare Commando inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Assassin inputs → 1 Elite output

Choose among 3 input item names. Each of the 2 outputs has a 50.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 25.00% chance.

Elite targets

Compare Assassin inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

Buying a higher-priced input in the same grade does not improve these single-collection odds. Price and quality still matter for cost: Strange and Non-Strange cannot be mixed. Read the odds guide or learn how expected profit differs from a guaranteed return.

Winter 2017 Cosmetic Case

Container information · Series #117

Winter 2017 Cosmetic Case

Winter 2017 Cosmetic Case contains items from the Winter 2017 Cosmetics Collection. The case was introduced on 2017-12-19. Requires a Winter 2017 Cosmetic Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Winter 2017 Cosmetics Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary10 items

80.00%

Commando5 items

16.00%

Assassin3 items

3.20%

Elite2 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade
  • Blast Blocker

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Brass Bucket

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Down Tundra Coat

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Pocket Santa

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Pocket Yeti

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Polar Bear

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Puffy Polar Cap

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • The Caribou Companion

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • The Sinner's Shade

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Trucker's Topper

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

Commando Grade
  • Burning Beanie

    Commando · Chance: 3.20%

  • Coldfront Commander

    Commando · Chance: 3.20%

  • Melody Of Misery

    Commando · Chance: 3.20%

  • Sledder's Sidekick

    Commando · Chance: 3.20%

  • Wild West Whiskers

    Commando · Chance: 3.20%

Assassin Grade
  • Coldfront Carapace

    Assassin · Chance: 1.07%

  • The Cat's Pajamas

    Assassin · Chance: 1.07%

  • The Handsome Hitman

    Assassin · Chance: 1.07%

Elite Grade
  • Balloonihoodie

    Elite · Chance: 0.40%

  • Hungover Hero

    Elite · Chance: 0.40%

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Winter 2017 Cosmetics Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost28.80 ref
Expected value15.57 ref
Expected P/L−13.23 ref
ROI-45.9%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputDown Tundra Coat2.88 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost40.00 ref
Expected value43.69 ref
Expected P/L+3.69 ref
ROI9.2%
Win chance40%
Cheapest quoted inputThe Caribou Companion4.00 ref each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Blast Blocker7.33 refChecks when viewed19.00 refChecks when viewed
Brass BucketSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed7.11 refChecks when viewed
Down Tundra Coat2.88 refChecks when viewed6.88 refChecks when viewed
Pocket SantaSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Pocket YetiSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Polar Bear3.33 refChecks when viewed6.00 refChecks when viewed
Puffy Polar CapSell listing quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
The Caribou Companion2.88 refChecks when viewed4.00 refChecks when viewed
The Sinner's ShadeSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed4.66 refChecks when viewed
Trucker's Topper3.11 refChecks when viewed5.77 refChecks when viewed

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Burning Beanie20.0%12.55 refChecks when viewed31.00 refChecks when viewed
Coldfront Commander20.0%23.88 refChecks when viewed47.22 refChecks when viewed
Melody Of Misery20.0%12.77 refChecks when viewed28.55 refChecks when viewed
Sledder's Sidekick20.0%14.77 refChecks when viewed1 key + 20.22 refChecks when viewed
Wild West Whiskers20.0%13.88 refChecks when viewed27.11 refChecks when viewed

Winter 2017 Cosmetics Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost1 key + 63.37 ref
Expected value2 keys + 10.37 ref
Expected P/L+11.33 ref
ROI8.9%
Win chance33%
Cheapest quoted inputBurning Beanie12.77 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost4 keys + 60.38 ref
Expected value4 keys + 18.48 ref
Expected P/L−41.90 ref
ROI-13.2%
Win chance33%
Cheapest quoted inputBurning Beanie31.77 ref each

Eligible Commando inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Burning Beanie12.77 refChecks when viewed31.77 refChecks when viewed
Coldfront Commander24.00 refChecks when viewed49.77 refChecks when viewed
Melody Of Misery12.88 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Sledder's Sidekick14.88 refChecks when viewed1 key + 20.22 refChecks when viewed
Wild West Whiskers14.00 refChecks when viewed35.44 refChecks when viewed

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Coldfront Carapace33.3%1 key + 5.44 refChecks when viewed2 keys + 44.55 refChecks when viewed
The Cat's Pajamas33.3%4 keys + 54.22 refChecks when viewed8 keys + 27.00 refChecks when viewed
The Handsome Hitman33.3%35.77 refChecks when viewed1 key + 48.22 refChecks when viewed

Winter 2017 Cosmetics Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost5 keys + 44.95 ref
Expected value3 keys + 32.88 ref
Expected P/L−2 keys − 12.06 ref
ROI-38.4%
Win chance50%
Cheapest quoted inputThe Handsome Hitman36.66 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost19 keys + 21.03 ref
Expected value8 keys + 5.94 ref
Expected P/L−11 keys − 15.09 ref
ROI-58.1%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputThe Handsome Hitman1 key + 60.00 ref each

Eligible Assassin inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Coldfront Carapace1 key + 5.66 refChecks when viewed2 keys + 49.88 refChecks when viewed
The Cat's Pajamas4 keys + 56.77 refChecks when viewed8 keys + 36.66 refChecks when viewed
The Handsome Hitman36.66 refChecks when viewed1 key + 60.00 refChecks when viewed

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Balloonihoodie50.0%6 keys + 16.33 refChecks when viewed14 keys + 0.33 refChecks when viewed
Hungover Hero50.0%49.44 refChecks when viewed2 keys + 11.55 refChecks when viewed

How to trade up to Winter 2017 Cosmetics Collection items

How to trade up to Burning Beanie

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2017 Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of Burning Beanie, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Burning Beanie trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Coldfront Commander

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2017 Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of Coldfront Commander, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Coldfront Commander trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Melody Of Misery

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2017 Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of Melody Of Misery, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Melody Of Misery trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Sledder's Sidekick

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2017 Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of Sledder's Sidekick, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Sledder's Sidekick trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Wild West Whiskers

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2017 Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of Wild West Whiskers, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Wild West Whiskers trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Coldfront Carapace

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Winter 2017 Cosmetics Collection for a 33.33% chance of Coldfront Carapace, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Coldfront Carapace trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Cat's Pajamas

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Winter 2017 Cosmetics Collection for a 33.33% chance of The Cat's Pajamas, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Cat's Pajamas trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Handsome Hitman

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Winter 2017 Cosmetics Collection for a 33.33% chance of The Handsome Hitman, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Handsome Hitman trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Balloonihoodie

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Winter 2017 Cosmetics Collection for a 50.00% chance of Balloonihoodie, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Balloonihoodie trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Hungover Hero

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Winter 2017 Cosmetics Collection for a 50.00% chance of Hungover Hero, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Hungover Hero trade-up odds →

How Winter 2017 Cosmetics Collection odds work

With ten Winter 2017 Cosmetics Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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