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TF2 collection guide · Saved market observations

Haunted Hoard Collection Trade-Up Guide

Haunted Hoard Collection is the Scream Fortress XVIII (2026) cosmetic collection, released October 1, 2026. Its 23 items comprise 10 Mercenary, 8 Commando, 4 Assassin and 1 Elite cosmetic. Ten compatible Mercenary inputs can produce each Commando at 12.5%; Commando inputs lead to four Assassin outputs at 25% each. Ten Assassin inputs from this collection lead to Royal Remains at 100%. These are single-collection trade-up odds, not case-opening odds or a guarantee of profit.

23Items
3Routes
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Haunted Hoard Collection: choose your target tier

Start with the item you want, then choose the grade immediately below it. Haunted Hoard Collection offers 3 adjacent-grade routes. Each row below assumes ten eligible inputs from this collection, with one result per contract; these are not case-opening probabilities.

10 Mercenary inputs → 1 Commando output

Choose among 10 input item names. Each of the 8 outputs has a 12.50% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 6.25% chance.

Commando targets

Compare Mercenary inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Commando inputs → 1 Assassin output

Choose among 8 input item names. Each of the 4 outputs has a 25.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 12.50% chance.

Assassin targets

Compare Commando inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Assassin inputs → 1 Elite output

Choose among 4 input item names. Each of the 1 outputs has a 100.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 50.00% chance.

Elite targets

Compare Assassin inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

Buying a higher-priced input in the same grade does not improve these single-collection odds. Price and quality still matter for cost: Strange and Non-Strange cannot be mixed. Read the odds guide or learn how expected profit differs from a guaranteed return.

Haunted Hoard Case

Container information · Series #153

Haunted Hoard Case

Haunted Hoard Case contains items from the Haunted Hoard Collection. The case was introduced on 2026-10-01. Requires a Haunted Hoard Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Haunted Hoard Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary10 items

80.00%

Commando8 items

16.00%

Assassin4 items

3.20%

Elite1 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade
  • Batter's Jersey

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Bounty Hunter's Brim

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Grenadier's Goggles

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • High Caliber Earner

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Mined Mind

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Rough Rider

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Skeleton Crew

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Twain Tassets

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Two Faced Terror

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Vance's Vest

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

Commando Grade
  • Bone Chiller

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

  • Clowning Cowl

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

  • Cogwork Cargos

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

  • Crown of the Ye Olde Kingdom

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

  • Desperado Disguise

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

  • General's Greatcoat

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

  • Hell-Bent Leather

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

  • Showdown Slacks

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

Assassin Grade
  • Gunpowder Grin

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

  • Scaled Surcoat

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

  • The Damage Dealer

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

  • Wayward Wrap

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

Elite Grade
  • Royal Remains

    Elite · Chance: 0.80%

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Haunted Hoard Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× costIncomplete quotes
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputNo eligible quoteQuote unavailable each

Strange

strange
10× costIncomplete quotes
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputNo eligible quoteQuote unavailable each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Batter's JerseySell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Bounty Hunter's BrimSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Grenadier's GogglesSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
High Caliber EarnerSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Mined MindSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Rough RiderSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Skeleton CrewSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Twain TassetsSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Two Faced TerrorSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Vance's VestSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Bone Chiller12.5%46.55 refChecks when viewedBuy order scan pendingChecks when viewed
Clowning Cowl12.5%Buy order scan pendingChecks when viewedBuy order scan pendingChecks when viewed
Cogwork Cargos12.5%14.22 refChecks when viewedBuy order scan pendingChecks when viewed
Crown of the Ye Olde Kingdom12.5%5.00 refChecks when viewedBuy order scan pendingChecks when viewed
Desperado Disguise12.5%18.44 refChecks when viewed28.88 refChecks when viewed
General's Greatcoat12.5%5.44 refChecks when viewedBuy order scan pendingChecks when viewed
Hell-Bent Leather12.5%7.22 refChecks when viewedBuy order scan pendingChecks when viewed
Showdown Slacks12.5%13.22 refChecks when viewedBuy order scan pendingChecks when viewed

Haunted Hoard Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× costIncomplete quotes
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputNo eligible quoteQuote unavailable each

Strange

strange
10× costIncomplete quotes
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputNo eligible quoteQuote unavailable each

Eligible Commando inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Bone ChillerSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Clowning CowlSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Cogwork CargosSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Crown of the Ye Olde KingdomSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Desperado DisguiseSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
General's GreatcoatSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Hell-Bent LeatherSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Showdown SlacksSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Gunpowder Grin25.0%33.88 refChecks when viewedBuy order scan pendingChecks when viewed
Scaled Surcoat25.0%Buy order scan pendingChecks when viewed1 key + 60.00 refChecks when viewed
The Damage Dealer25.0%Buy order scan pendingChecks when viewedBuy order scan pendingChecks when viewed
Wayward Wrap25.0%38.33 refChecks when viewedBuy order scan pendingChecks when viewed

Haunted Hoard Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× costIncomplete quotes
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputNo eligible quoteQuote unavailable each

Strange

strange
10× costIncomplete quotes
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputNo eligible quoteQuote unavailable each

Eligible Assassin inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Gunpowder GrinSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Scaled SurcoatSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
The Damage DealerSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Wayward WrapSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Royal Remains100.0%3 keys + 0.11 refChecks when viewed5 keys + 1.88 refChecks when viewed

How to trade up to Haunted Hoard Collection items

How to trade up to Bone Chiller

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Haunted Hoard Collection for a 12.50% chance of Bone Chiller, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Bone Chiller trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Clowning Cowl

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Haunted Hoard Collection for a 12.50% chance of Clowning Cowl, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Clowning Cowl trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Cogwork Cargos

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Haunted Hoard Collection for a 12.50% chance of Cogwork Cargos, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Cogwork Cargos trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Crown of the Ye Olde Kingdom

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Haunted Hoard Collection for a 12.50% chance of Crown of the Ye Olde Kingdom, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Crown of the Ye Olde Kingdom trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Desperado Disguise

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Haunted Hoard Collection for a 12.50% chance of Desperado Disguise, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Desperado Disguise trade-up odds →

How to trade up to General's Greatcoat

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Haunted Hoard Collection for a 12.50% chance of General's Greatcoat, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate General's Greatcoat trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Hell-Bent Leather

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Haunted Hoard Collection for a 12.50% chance of Hell-Bent Leather, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Hell-Bent Leather trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Showdown Slacks

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Haunted Hoard Collection for a 12.50% chance of Showdown Slacks, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Showdown Slacks trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Gunpowder Grin

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Haunted Hoard Collection for a 25.00% chance of Gunpowder Grin, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Gunpowder Grin trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Scaled Surcoat

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Haunted Hoard Collection for a 25.00% chance of Scaled Surcoat, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Scaled Surcoat trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Damage Dealer

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Haunted Hoard Collection for a 25.00% chance of The Damage Dealer, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Damage Dealer trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Wayward Wrap

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Haunted Hoard Collection for a 25.00% chance of Wayward Wrap, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Wayward Wrap trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Royal Remains

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Haunted Hoard Collection for a 100.00% chance of Royal Remains, one of 1 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 50.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Royal Remains trade-up odds →

How Haunted Hoard Collection odds work

With ten Haunted Hoard Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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