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Blue Moon Cosmetics Collection Trade-Up Guide

Blue Moon Cosmetics Collection contains 19 items across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade item is Robin Walkers. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

19Items
3Routes
CheckingPrice state
Data snapshot
Blue Moon Cosmetic Case

Container information · Series #119

Blue Moon Cosmetic Case

Blue Moon Cosmetic Case contains items from the Blue Moon Cosmetics Collection. The case was introduced on 2018-03-26. Requires a Blue Moon Cosmetic Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Blue Moon Cosmetics Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary8 items

80.00%

Commando7 items

16.00%

Assassin3 items

3.20%

Elite1 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade
  • Antarctic Eyewear

    Mercenary · Chance: 10.00%

  • Assassin's Attire

    Mercenary · Chance: 10.00%

  • Sky High Fly Guy

    Mercenary · Chance: 10.00%

  • The Head Hedge

    Mercenary · Chance: 10.00%

  • The Hot Case

    Mercenary · Chance: 10.00%

  • The Tundra Top

    Mercenary · Chance: 10.00%

  • Tsar Platinum

    Mercenary · Chance: 10.00%

  • Wipe Out Wraps

    Mercenary · Chance: 10.00%

Commando Grade
  • Aristotle

    Commando · Chance: 2.29%

  • Blizzard Britches

    Commando · Chance: 2.29%

  • Punk's Pomp

    Commando · Chance: 2.29%

  • Scourge of the Sky

    Commando · Chance: 2.29%

  • Starboard Crusader

    Commando · Chance: 2.29%

  • The Burning Question

    Commando · Chance: 2.29%

  • Veteran's Attire

    Commando · Chance: 2.29%

Assassin Grade
  • Private Maggot Muncher

    Assassin · Chance: 1.07%

  • The Cold Case

    Assassin · Chance: 1.07%

  • The Frag Proof Fragger

    Assassin · Chance: 1.07%

Elite Grade
  • Robin Walkers

    Elite · Chance: 0.80%

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Blue Moon Cosmetics Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost35.50 ref
Expected value41.47 ref
Expected P/L+5.97 ref
ROI16.8%
Win chance43%
Cheapest quoted inputSky High Fly Guy3.55 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost1 key + 18.97 ref
Expected value1 key + 36.30 ref
Expected P/L+17.33 ref
ROI20.8%
Win chance43%
Cheapest quoted inputThe Head Hedge8.33 ref each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Antarctic Eyewear3.66 ref9.77 ref
Assassin's Attire3.55 ref8.77 ref
Sky High Fly Guy3.55 ref8.66 ref
The Head Hedge4.27 ref8.33 ref
The Hot Case20.22 ref32.44 ref
The Tundra Top3.77 ref9.77 ref
Tsar Platinum4.22 ref14.77 ref
Wipe Out Wraps9.66 ref17.88 ref

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Aristotle14.3%6.11 ref16.55 ref
Blizzard Britches14.3%2 keys + 10.55 ref3 keys + 41.00 ref
Punk's Pomp14.3%10.33 ref29.33 ref
Scourge of the Sky14.3%13.55 ref57.88 ref
Starboard Crusader14.3%46.11 ref1 key + 53.55 ref
The Burning Question14.3%4.88 ref17.88 ref
Veteran's Attire14.3%1 key + 5.77 ref3 keys + 37.88 ref

Blue Moon Cosmetics Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost56.60 ref
Expected value21.18 ref
Expected P/L−35.42 ref
ROI-62.6%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputThe Burning Question5.66 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost2 keys + 46.84 ref
Expected value1 key + 13.44 ref
Expected P/L−1 key − 33.40 ref
ROI-55.7%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputAristotle17.55 ref each

Eligible Commando inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Aristotle6.11 ref17.55 ref
Blizzard Britches2 keys + 11.44 ref3 keys + 59.66 ref
Punk's Pomp11.66 ref32.66 ref
Scourge of the Sky13.66 ref59.22 ref
Starboard Crusader46.11 ref1 key + 56.88 ref
The Burning Question5.66 ref18.66 ref
Veteran's Attire1 key + 6.55 ref3 keys + 43.66 ref

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Private Maggot Muncher33.3%20.66 ref1 key + 20.66 ref
The Cold Case33.3%18.88 ref1 key + 9.00 ref
The Frag Proof Fragger33.3%24.00 ref1 key + 10.66 ref

Blue Moon Cosmetics Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost2 keys + 61.34 ref
Expected value3 keys + 20.44 ref
Expected P/L+23.43 ref
ROI12.3%
Win chance100%
Cheapest quoted inputThe Cold Case19.00 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost12 keys + 13.54 ref
Expected value12 keys + 2.66 ref
Expected P/L−10.88 ref
ROI-1.4%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputThe Cold Case1 key + 14.22 ref each

Eligible Assassin inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Private Maggot Muncher20.88 ref1 key + 26.77 ref
The Cold Case19.00 ref1 key + 14.22 ref
The Frag Proof Fragger23.88 refNo eligible quote

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Robin Walkers100.0%3 keys + 20.44 ref12 keys + 2.66 ref

How to trade up to Blue Moon Cosmetics Collection items

How to trade up to Aristotle

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Blue Moon Cosmetics Collection for a 14.29% chance of Aristotle, one of 7 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 7.14%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Aristotle trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Blizzard Britches

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Blue Moon Cosmetics Collection for a 14.29% chance of Blizzard Britches, one of 7 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 7.14%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Blizzard Britches trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Punk's Pomp

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Blue Moon Cosmetics Collection for a 14.29% chance of Punk's Pomp, one of 7 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 7.14%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Punk's Pomp trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Scourge of the Sky

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Blue Moon Cosmetics Collection for a 14.29% chance of Scourge of the Sky, one of 7 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 7.14%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Scourge of the Sky trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Starboard Crusader

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Blue Moon Cosmetics Collection for a 14.29% chance of Starboard Crusader, one of 7 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 7.14%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Starboard Crusader trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Burning Question

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Blue Moon Cosmetics Collection for a 14.29% chance of The Burning Question, one of 7 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 7.14%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Burning Question trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Veteran's Attire

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Blue Moon Cosmetics Collection for a 14.29% chance of Veteran's Attire, one of 7 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 7.14%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Veteran's Attire trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Private Maggot Muncher

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Blue Moon Cosmetics Collection for a 33.33% chance of Private Maggot Muncher, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Private Maggot Muncher trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Cold Case

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Blue Moon Cosmetics Collection for a 33.33% chance of The Cold Case, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Cold Case trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Frag Proof Fragger

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Blue Moon Cosmetics Collection for a 33.33% chance of The Frag Proof Fragger, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Frag Proof Fragger trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Robin Walkers

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Blue Moon Cosmetics Collection for a 100.00% chance of Robin Walkers, one of 1 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 50.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Robin Walkers trade-up odds →

How Blue Moon Cosmetics Collection odds work

With ten Blue Moon Cosmetics Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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