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TF2 collection guide · Saved market observations

Blue Moon Cosmetics Collection Trade-Up Guide

Blue Moon Cosmetics Collection contains 19 items across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade item is Robin Walkers. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

19Items
3Routes
LoadingDataset state
Data snapshot . Loading the dataset does not recheck every listing; individual quotes can still be missing or stale.

Steam pricing is temporarily paused. Prices use backpack.tf only.

Blue Moon Cosmetics Collection: choose your target tier

Start with the item you want, then choose the grade immediately below it. Blue Moon Cosmetics Collection offers 3 adjacent-grade routes. Each row below assumes ten eligible inputs from this collection, with one result per contract; these are not case-opening probabilities.

10 Mercenary inputs → 1 Commando output

Choose among 8 input item names. Each of the 7 outputs has a 14.29% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 7.14% chance.

Commando targets

Compare Mercenary inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Commando inputs → 1 Assassin output

Choose among 7 input item names. Each of the 3 outputs has a 33.33% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 16.67% chance.

Assassin targets

Compare Commando inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Assassin inputs → 1 Elite output

Choose among 3 input item names. Each of the 1 outputs has a 100.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 50.00% chance.

Elite targets

Compare Assassin inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

Buying a higher-priced input in the same grade does not improve these single-collection odds. Price and quality still matter for cost: Strange and Non-Strange cannot be mixed. Read the odds guide or learn how expected profit differs from a guaranteed return.

Blue Moon Cosmetic Case

Container information · Series #119

Blue Moon Cosmetic Case

Blue Moon Cosmetic Case contains items from the Blue Moon Cosmetics Collection. The case was introduced on 2018-03-26. Requires a Blue Moon Cosmetic Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Blue Moon Cosmetics Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary8 items

80.00%

Commando7 items

16.00%

Assassin3 items

3.20%

Elite1 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade
  • Antarctic Eyewear

    Mercenary · Chance: 10.00%

  • Assassin's Attire

    Mercenary · Chance: 10.00%

  • Sky High Fly Guy

    Mercenary · Chance: 10.00%

  • The Head Hedge

    Mercenary · Chance: 10.00%

  • The Hot Case

    Mercenary · Chance: 10.00%

  • The Tundra Top

    Mercenary · Chance: 10.00%

  • Tsar Platinum

    Mercenary · Chance: 10.00%

  • Wipe Out Wraps

    Mercenary · Chance: 10.00%

Commando Grade
  • Aristotle

    Commando · Chance: 2.29%

  • Blizzard Britches

    Commando · Chance: 2.29%

  • Punk's Pomp

    Commando · Chance: 2.29%

  • Scourge of the Sky

    Commando · Chance: 2.29%

  • Starboard Crusader

    Commando · Chance: 2.29%

  • The Burning Question

    Commando · Chance: 2.29%

  • Veteran's Attire

    Commando · Chance: 2.29%

Assassin Grade
  • Private Maggot Muncher

    Assassin · Chance: 1.07%

  • The Cold Case

    Assassin · Chance: 1.07%

  • The Frag Proof Fragger

    Assassin · Chance: 1.07%

Elite Grade
  • Robin Walkers

    Elite · Chance: 0.80%

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Blue Moon Cosmetics Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost30.00 ref
Expected value35.82 ref
Expected P/L+5.82 ref
ROI19.4%
Win chance43%
Cheapest quoted inputThe Tundra Top3.00 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost1 key + 20.07 ref
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputAntarctic Eyewear8.44 ref each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Antarctic Eyewear3.66 refChecks when viewed8.44 refChecks when viewed
Assassin's Attire3.33 refChecks when viewed10.00 refChecks when viewed
Sky High Fly Guy3.22 refChecks when viewed8.66 refChecks when viewed
The Head Hedge3.11 refChecks when viewed8.77 refChecks when viewed
The Hot Case18.00 refChecks when viewed34.33 refChecks when viewed
The Tundra Top3.00 refChecks when viewed9.66 refChecks when viewed
Tsar Platinum4.44 refChecks when viewed14.44 refChecks when viewed
Wipe Out Wraps7.22 refChecks when viewed18.77 refChecks when viewed

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Aristotle14.3%4.66 refChecks when viewed15.88 refChecks when viewed
Blizzard Britches14.3%1 key + 59.11 refChecks when viewed3 keys + 26.55 refChecks when viewed
Punk's Pomp14.3%8.88 refChecks when viewed27.66 refChecks when viewed
Scourge of the Sky14.3%11.11 refChecks when viewed50.55 refChecks when viewed
Starboard Crusader14.3%39.44 refChecks when viewed1 key + 48.77 refChecks when viewed
The Burning Question14.3%4.00 refChecks when viewedBuy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed
Veteran's Attire14.3%59.22 refChecks when viewed3 keys + 13.33 refChecks when viewed

Blue Moon Cosmetics Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost38.80 ref
Expected value18.92 ref
Expected P/L−19.88 ref
ROI-51.2%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputThe Burning Question3.88 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost2 keys + 31.34 ref
Expected value1 key + 13.55 ref
Expected P/L−1 key − 17.79 ref
ROI-51.3%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputAristotle16.00 ref each

Eligible Commando inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Aristotle4.66 refChecks when viewed16.00 refChecks when viewed
Blizzard Britches1 key + 59.33 refChecks when viewed3 keys + 31.33 refChecks when viewed
Punk's Pomp8.88 refChecks when viewed28.00 refChecks when viewed
Scourge of the Sky11.22 refChecks when viewed51.00 refChecks when viewed
Starboard Crusader40.22 refChecks when viewed1 key + 50.77 refChecks when viewed
The Burning Question3.88 refChecks when viewed19.00 refChecks when viewed
Veteran's Attire60.33 refChecks when viewed3 keys + 29.22 refChecks when viewed

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Private Maggot Muncher33.3%19.44 refChecks when viewed1 key + 14.88 refChecks when viewed
The Cold Case33.3%17.66 refChecks when viewed1 key + 13.33 refChecks when viewed
The Frag Proof Fragger33.3%19.66 refChecks when viewed1 key + 12.44 refChecks when viewed

Blue Moon Cosmetics Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost2 keys + 50.14 ref
Expected value3 keys + 15.33 ref
Expected P/L+29.52 ref
ROI16.5%
Win chance100%
Cheapest quoted inputThe Cold Case17.88 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost12 keys + 53.54 ref
Expected value11 keys + 50.66 ref
Expected P/L−1 key − 2.88 ref
ROI-8.1%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputPrivate Maggot Muncher1 key + 18.22 ref each

Eligible Assassin inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Private Maggot Muncher19.55 refChecks when viewed1 key + 18.22 refChecks when viewed
The Cold Case17.88 refChecks when viewed1 key + 20.11 refChecks when viewed
The Frag Proof Fragger20.44 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Robin Walkers100.0%3 keys + 15.33 refChecks when viewed11 keys + 50.66 refChecks when viewed

How to trade up to Blue Moon Cosmetics Collection items

How to trade up to Aristotle

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Blue Moon Cosmetics Collection for a 14.29% chance of Aristotle, one of 7 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 7.14%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Aristotle trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Blizzard Britches

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Blue Moon Cosmetics Collection for a 14.29% chance of Blizzard Britches, one of 7 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 7.14%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Blizzard Britches trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Punk's Pomp

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Blue Moon Cosmetics Collection for a 14.29% chance of Punk's Pomp, one of 7 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 7.14%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Punk's Pomp trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Scourge of the Sky

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Blue Moon Cosmetics Collection for a 14.29% chance of Scourge of the Sky, one of 7 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 7.14%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Scourge of the Sky trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Starboard Crusader

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Blue Moon Cosmetics Collection for a 14.29% chance of Starboard Crusader, one of 7 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 7.14%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Starboard Crusader trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Burning Question

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Blue Moon Cosmetics Collection for a 14.29% chance of The Burning Question, one of 7 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 7.14%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Burning Question trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Veteran's Attire

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Blue Moon Cosmetics Collection for a 14.29% chance of Veteran's Attire, one of 7 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 7.14%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Veteran's Attire trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Private Maggot Muncher

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Blue Moon Cosmetics Collection for a 33.33% chance of Private Maggot Muncher, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Private Maggot Muncher trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Cold Case

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Blue Moon Cosmetics Collection for a 33.33% chance of The Cold Case, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Cold Case trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Frag Proof Fragger

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Blue Moon Cosmetics Collection for a 33.33% chance of The Frag Proof Fragger, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Frag Proof Fragger trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Robin Walkers

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Blue Moon Cosmetics Collection for a 100.00% chance of Robin Walkers, one of 1 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 50.00%. The ten-input single-collection recipe guarantees the item type, not its selling price or a profit; the mixed recipe does not guarantee the item.

Calculate Robin Walkers trade-up odds →

How Blue Moon Cosmetics Collection odds work

With ten Blue Moon Cosmetics Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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