How are Powerhouse Collection trade-up odds calculated?

In a single-collection contract, every recorded item at the next rarity has an equal chance. In a mixed contract, each input contributes ten percent probability to its collection, then that collection share is divided equally among its possible outputs.

Can Strange and non-Strange items be mixed in one TF2 trade-up?

No. A contract must use either all Strange inputs or all non-Strange inputs. This page displays both markets separately.

TF2 collection guide · Live calculator data

Powerhouse Collection Trade-Up Guide

Powerhouse Collection contains 15 decorated weapons across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade items include Liquid Asset Stickybomb Launcher, Thunderbolt Sniper Rifle. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

15Items

3Routes

CheckingPrice state

Data snapshot Tue, 08 Sep 2026 21:59:44 GMT

Container information · Series #94

The Powerhouse Weapons Case

The Powerhouse Weapons Case contains items from the Powerhouse Collection. The case was introduced on 2015-06-25. Requires a Gun Mettle Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Powerhouse Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary5 items

80.00%

Commando5 items

16.00%

Assassin3 items

3.20%

Elite2 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade

Aqua Marine Rocket Launcher
Mercenary · Chance: 16.00%
Brick House Minigun
Mercenary · Chance: 16.00%
Lightning Rod Shotgun
Mercenary · Chance: 16.00%
Low Profile SMG
Mercenary · Chance: 16.00%
Turbine Torcher Flame Thrower
Mercenary · Chance: 16.00%

Commando Grade

Black Dahlia Pistol
Commando · Chance: 3.20%
Dead Reckoner Revolver
Commando · Chance: 3.20%
Flash Fryer Flame Thrower
Commando · Chance: 3.20%
Sandstone Special Pistol
Commando · Chance: 3.20%
Spark of Life Medi Gun
Commando · Chance: 3.20%

Assassin Grade

Current Event Scattergun
Assassin · Chance: 1.07%
Pink Elephant Stickybomb Launcher
Assassin · Chance: 1.07%
Shell Shocker Rocket Launcher
Assassin · Chance: 1.07%

Elite Grade

Liquid Asset Stickybomb Launcher
Elite · Chance: 0.40%
Thunderbolt Sniper Rifle
Elite · Chance: 0.40%

War Paint and decorated-weapon quotes must match both quality and wear. This guide compares Factory New only; select Minimal Wear, Field-Tested, Well-Worn or Battle Scarred in the calculator. Steam USD is recommended because backpack.tf wear-specific coverage is limited. A collection’s output wear follows that collection’s inputs, not another collection’s wear.

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Powerhouse Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost$3.50

Expected valueIncomplete quotes

Expected P/LIncomplete quotes

ROIIncomplete quotes

Win chanceIncomplete quotes

Cheapest quoted inputBrick House Minigun$0.35 each

Strange

strange

10× cost$143.90

Expected valueIncomplete quotes

Expected P/LIncomplete quotes

ROIIncomplete quotes

Win chanceIncomplete quotes

Cheapest quoted inputBrick House Minigun$14.39 each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Aqua Marine Rocket Launcher	No eligible quote	No eligible quote
Brick House Minigun	$0.35	$14.39
Lightning Rod Shotgun	$0.54	$19.50
Low Profile SMG	No eligible quote	No eligible quote
Turbine Torcher Flame Thrower	No eligible quote	No eligible quote

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid
Black Dahlia Pistol	20.0%	$2.89	$31.41
Dead Reckoner Revolver	20.0%	$1.99	$13.29
Flash Fryer Flame Thrower	20.0%	No eligible quote	No eligible quote
Sandstone Special Pistol	20.0%	No eligible quote	No eligible quote
Spark of Life Medi Gun	20.0%	$1.46	No eligible quote

Powerhouse Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost$28.70

Expected value$13.19

Expected P/L−$15.51

ROI-54.0%

Win chance0%

Cheapest quoted inputDead Reckoner Revolver$2.87 each

Strange

strange

10× cost$486.40

Expected valueIncomplete quotes

Expected P/LIncomplete quotes

ROIIncomplete quotes

Win chanceIncomplete quotes

Cheapest quoted inputDead Reckoner Revolver$48.64 each

Eligible Commando inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Black Dahlia Pistol	$3.38	$85.99
Dead Reckoner Revolver	$2.87	$48.64
Flash Fryer Flame Thrower	No eligible quote	No eligible quote
Sandstone Special Pistol	No eligible quote	No eligible quote
Spark of Life Medi Gun	$3.12	No eligible quote

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid
Current Event Scattergun	33.3%	$18.03	No eligible quote
Pink Elephant Stickybomb Launcher	33.3%	$10.00	No eligible quote
Shell Shocker Rocket Launcher	33.3%	$11.55	$187.94

Powerhouse Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost$192.80

Expected valueIncomplete quotes

Expected P/LIncomplete quotes

ROIIncomplete quotes

Win chanceIncomplete quotes

Cheapest quoted inputShell Shocker Rocket Launcher$19.28 each

Strange

strange

10× cost$8776.90

Expected valueIncomplete quotes

Expected P/LIncomplete quotes

ROIIncomplete quotes

Win chanceIncomplete quotes

Cheapest quoted inputShell Shocker Rocket Launcher$877.69 each

Eligible Assassin inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Current Event Scattergun	$31.66	No eligible quote
Pink Elephant Stickybomb Launcher	$19.56	No eligible quote
Shell Shocker Rocket Launcher	$19.28	$877.69

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid	Markets
Liquid Asset Stickybomb Launcher	50.0%	$49.66	No eligible quote
Thunderbolt Sniper Rifle	50.0%	No eligible quote	No eligible quote

How to trade up to Powerhouse Collection items

How to trade up to Black Dahlia Pistol

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Powerhouse Collection for a 20.00% chance of Black Dahlia Pistol, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Black Dahlia Pistol trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Dead Reckoner Revolver

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Powerhouse Collection for a 20.00% chance of Dead Reckoner Revolver, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Dead Reckoner Revolver trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Flash Fryer Flame Thrower

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Powerhouse Collection for a 20.00% chance of Flash Fryer Flame Thrower, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Flash Fryer Flame Thrower trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Sandstone Special Pistol

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Powerhouse Collection for a 20.00% chance of Sandstone Special Pistol, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Sandstone Special Pistol trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Spark of Life Medi Gun

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Powerhouse Collection for a 20.00% chance of Spark of Life Medi Gun, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Spark of Life Medi Gun trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Current Event Scattergun

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Powerhouse Collection for a 33.33% chance of Current Event Scattergun, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Current Event Scattergun trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Pink Elephant Stickybomb Launcher

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Powerhouse Collection for a 33.33% chance of Pink Elephant Stickybomb Launcher, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Pink Elephant Stickybomb Launcher trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Shell Shocker Rocket Launcher

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Powerhouse Collection for a 33.33% chance of Shell Shocker Rocket Launcher, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Shell Shocker Rocket Launcher trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Liquid Asset Stickybomb Launcher

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Powerhouse Collection for a 50.00% chance of Liquid Asset Stickybomb Launcher, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Liquid Asset Stickybomb Launcher trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Thunderbolt Sniper Rifle

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Powerhouse Collection for a 50.00% chance of Thunderbolt Sniper Rifle, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Thunderbolt Sniper Rifle trade-up odds →

How Powerhouse Collection odds work

With ten Powerhouse Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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