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TF2 collection guide · Saved market observations

Summer 2020 Cosmetics Collection Trade-Up Guide

Summer 2020 Cosmetics Collection contains 22 items across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade items include Breadcrab, Hypno-Eyes. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

22Items
3Routes
LoadingDataset state
Data snapshot . Loading the dataset does not recheck every listing; individual quotes can still be missing or stale.

Steam pricing is temporarily paused. Prices use backpack.tf only.

Summer 2020 Cosmetics Collection: choose your target tier

Start with the item you want, then choose the grade immediately below it. Summer 2020 Cosmetics Collection offers 3 adjacent-grade routes. Each row below assumes ten eligible inputs from this collection, with one result per contract; these are not case-opening probabilities.

10 Mercenary inputs → 1 Commando output

Choose among 10 input item names. Each of the 6 outputs has a 16.67% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 8.33% chance.

Commando targets

Compare Mercenary inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Commando inputs → 1 Assassin output

Choose among 6 input item names. Each of the 4 outputs has a 25.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 12.50% chance.

Assassin targets

Compare Commando inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Assassin inputs → 1 Elite output

Choose among 4 input item names. Each of the 2 outputs has a 50.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 25.00% chance.

Elite targets

Compare Assassin inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

Buying a higher-priced input in the same grade does not improve these single-collection odds. Price and quality still matter for cost: Strange and Non-Strange cannot be mixed. Read the odds guide or learn how expected profit differs from a guaranteed return.

Summer 2020 Cosmetic Case

Container information · Series #127

Summer 2020 Cosmetic Case

Summer 2020 Cosmetic Case contains items from the Summer 2020 Cosmetics Collection. The case was introduced on 2020-08-17. Requires a Summer 2020 Cosmetic Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Summer 2020 Cosmetics Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary10 items

80.00%

Commando6 items

16.00%

Assassin4 items

3.20%

Elite2 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade
  • Bazaar Bauble

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • California Cap

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Crabe de Chapeau

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Fire Fighter

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Head Of Defense

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Poolside Polo

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Self-Care

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Soda Specs

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Sophisticated Smoker

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • The Jarmaments

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

Commando Grade
  • Bird's Eye Viewer

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

  • Breach and Bomb

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

  • Flatliner

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

  • Hazard Headgear

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

  • Momma Kiev

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

  • Tools of the Tourist

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

Assassin Grade
  • Flamehawk

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

  • Hawk Warrior

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

  • Loaf Loafers

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

  • Smoking Jacket

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

Elite Grade
  • Breadcrab

    Elite · Chance: 0.40%

  • Hypno-Eyes

    Elite · Chance: 0.40%

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Summer 2020 Cosmetics Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost30.00 ref
Expected value18.31 ref
Expected P/L−11.69 ref
ROI-39.0%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputCalifornia Cap3.00 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost51.10 ref
Expected value1 key + 0.39 ref
Expected P/L+13.62 ref
ROI26.6%
Win chance83%
Cheapest quoted inputBazaar Bauble5.11 ref each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Bazaar Bauble3.38 refChecks when viewed5.11 refChecks when viewed
California Cap3.00 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Crabe de Chapeau5.05 refChecks when viewed1 key + 20.88 refChecks when viewed
Fire Fighter3.66 refChecks when viewed10.33 refChecks when viewed
Head Of Defense4.11 refChecks when viewed13.88 refChecks when viewed
Poolside Polo3.55 refChecks when viewed11.00 refChecks when viewed
Self-CareSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Soda Specs3.22 refChecks when viewed7.44 refChecks when viewed
Sophisticated Smoker13.22 refChecks when viewed29.11 refChecks when viewed
The Jarmaments4.00 refChecks when viewed16.44 refChecks when viewed

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Bird's Eye Viewer16.7%14.66 refChecks when viewed51.33 refChecks when viewed
Breach and Bomb16.7%25.55 refChecks when viewed60.00 refChecks when viewed
Flatliner16.7%27.33 refChecks when viewed1 key + 50.88 refChecks when viewed
Hazard Headgear16.7%14.44 refChecks when viewed55.88 refChecks when viewed
Momma Kiev16.7%13.88 refChecks when viewed50.66 refChecks when viewed
Tools of the Tourist16.7%14.00 refChecks when viewed55.22 refChecks when viewed

Summer 2020 Cosmetics Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost2 keys + 10.14 ref
Expected value2 keys + 29.24 ref
Expected P/L+19.11 ref
ROI13.8%
Win chance50%
Cheapest quoted inputMomma Kiev13.88 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost8 keys + 35.36 ref
Expected value7 keys + 58.72 ref
Expected P/L−40.97 ref
ROI-7.4%
Win chance25%
Cheapest quoted inputBird's Eye Viewer55.00 ref each

Eligible Commando inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Bird's Eye Viewer15.22 refChecks when viewed55.00 refChecks when viewed
Breach and Bomb24.88 refChecks when viewed63.44 refChecks when viewed
Flatliner27.88 refChecks when viewed1 key + 53.88 refChecks when viewed
Hazard Headgear15.00 refChecks when viewed59.44 refChecks when viewed
Momma Kiev13.88 refChecks when viewed62.22 refChecks when viewed
Tools of the TouristSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed57.44 refChecks when viewed

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Flamehawk25.0%1 key + 57.55 refChecks when viewed5 keys + 18.22 refChecks when viewed
Hawk Warrior25.0%1 key + 55.66 refChecks when viewed6 keys + 21.44 refChecks when viewed
Loaf Loafers25.0%3 keys + 57.77 refChecks when viewed12 keys + 32.22 refChecks when viewed
Smoking Jacket25.0%2 keys + 10.33 refChecks when viewed7 keys + 34.33 refChecks when viewed

Summer 2020 Cosmetics Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost19 keys + 14.33 ref
Expected value16 keys + 10.88 ref
Expected P/L−3 keys − 3.45 ref
ROI-15.9%
Win chance50%
Cheapest quoted inputFlamehawk1 key + 59.33 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost85 keys + 28.35 ref
Expected value50 keys + 2.39 ref
Expected P/L−35 keys − 25.97 ref
ROI-41.4%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputSmoking Jacket8 keys + 35.00 ref each

Eligible Assassin inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Flamehawk1 key + 59.33 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Hawk Warrior1 key + 64.11 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Loaf Loafers3 keys + 63.11 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Smoking Jacket2 keys + 10.33 refChecks when viewed8 keys + 35.00 refChecks when viewed

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Breadcrab50.0%6 keys + 11.88 refChecks when viewed16 keys + 3.77 refChecks when viewed
Hypno-Eyes50.0%26 keys + 9.88 refChecks when viewed84 keys + 1.00 refChecks when viewed

How to trade up to Summer 2020 Cosmetics Collection items

How to trade up to Bird's Eye Viewer

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2020 Cosmetics Collection for a 16.67% chance of Bird's Eye Viewer, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Bird's Eye Viewer trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Breach and Bomb

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2020 Cosmetics Collection for a 16.67% chance of Breach and Bomb, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Breach and Bomb trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Flatliner

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2020 Cosmetics Collection for a 16.67% chance of Flatliner, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Flatliner trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Hazard Headgear

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2020 Cosmetics Collection for a 16.67% chance of Hazard Headgear, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Hazard Headgear trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Momma Kiev

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2020 Cosmetics Collection for a 16.67% chance of Momma Kiev, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Momma Kiev trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Tools of the Tourist

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2020 Cosmetics Collection for a 16.67% chance of Tools of the Tourist, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Tools of the Tourist trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Flamehawk

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Summer 2020 Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of Flamehawk, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Flamehawk trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Hawk Warrior

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Summer 2020 Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of Hawk Warrior, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Hawk Warrior trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Loaf Loafers

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Summer 2020 Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of Loaf Loafers, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Loaf Loafers trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Smoking Jacket

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Summer 2020 Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of Smoking Jacket, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Smoking Jacket trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Breadcrab

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Summer 2020 Cosmetics Collection for a 50.00% chance of Breadcrab, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Breadcrab trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Hypno-Eyes

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Summer 2020 Cosmetics Collection for a 50.00% chance of Hypno-Eyes, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Hypno-Eyes trade-up odds →

How Summer 2020 Cosmetics Collection odds work

With ten Summer 2020 Cosmetics Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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