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Summer 2020 Cosmetics Collection Trade-Up Guide

Summer 2020 Cosmetics Collection contains 22 items across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade items include Breadcrab, Hypno-Eyes. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

22Items
3Routes
CheckingPrice state
Data snapshot
Summer 2020 Cosmetic Case

Container information · Series #127

Summer 2020 Cosmetic Case

Summer 2020 Cosmetic Case contains items from the Summer 2020 Cosmetics Collection. The case was introduced on 2020-08-17. Requires a Summer 2020 Cosmetic Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Summer 2020 Cosmetics Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary10 items

80.00%

Commando6 items

16.00%

Assassin4 items

3.20%

Elite2 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade
  • Bazaar Bauble

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • California Cap

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Crabe de Chapeau

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Fire Fighter

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Head Of Defense

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Poolside Polo

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Self-Care

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Soda Specs

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Sophisticated Smoker

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • The Jarmaments

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

Commando Grade
  • Bird's Eye Viewer

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

  • Breach and Bomb

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

  • Flatliner

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

  • Hazard Headgear

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

  • Momma Kiev

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

  • Tools of the Tourist

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

Assassin Grade
  • Flamehawk

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

  • Hawk Warrior

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

  • Loaf Loafers

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

  • Smoking Jacket

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

Elite Grade
  • Breadcrab

    Elite · Chance: 0.40%

  • Hypno-Eyes

    Elite · Chance: 0.40%

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Summer 2020 Cosmetics Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost31.10 ref
Expected value19.64 ref
Expected P/L−11.45 ref
ROI-36.8%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputBazaar Bauble3.11 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost1 key + 9.47 ref
Expected value1 key + 4.42 ref
Expected P/L−5.05 ref
ROI-6.8%
Win chance17%
Cheapest quoted inputCalifornia Cap7.38 ref each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Bazaar Bauble3.11 ref8.00 ref
California Cap3.33 ref7.38 ref
Crabe de Chapeau6.22 ref15.22 ref
Fire Fighter4.22 ref10.55 ref
Head Of Defense5.11 ref12.22 ref
Poolside Polo4.88 refNo eligible quote
Self-CareNo eligible quote9.22 ref
Soda Specs3.55 refNo eligible quote
Sophisticated Smoker16.77 ref41.55 ref
The Jarmaments5.55 ref31.22 ref

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Bird's Eye Viewer16.7%13.66 ref52.88 ref
Breach and Bomb16.7%28.44 ref61.55 ref
Flatliner16.7%29.44 ref2 keys + 6.66 ref
Hazard Headgear16.7%13.22 ref52.11 ref
Momma Kiev16.7%16.00 ref50.33 ref
Tools of the Tourist16.7%17.11 ref60.33 ref

Summer 2020 Cosmetics Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost2 keys + 15.74 ref
Expected value2 keys + 27.38 ref
Expected P/L+11.64 ref
ROI8.1%
Win chance50%
Cheapest quoted inputBird's Eye Viewer14.44 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost9 keys + 39.83 ref
Expected value8 keys + 0.50 ref
Expected P/L−1 key − 39.33 ref
ROI-16.8%
Win chance25%
Cheapest quoted inputTools of the Tourist61.88 ref each

Eligible Commando inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Bird's Eye Viewer14.44 ref1 key + 11.55 ref
Breach and Bomb29.33 ref1 key
FlatlinerNo eligible quote2 keys + 48.00 ref
Hazard Headgear14.77 ref1 key
Momma Kiev16.44 ref1 key + 6.00 ref
Tools of the Tourist57.55 ref61.88 ref

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Flamehawk25.0%1 key + 48.88 ref5 keys + 31.00 ref
Hawk Warrior25.0%1 key + 38.55 ref6 keys + 41.33 ref
Loaf Loafers25.0%4 keys + 5.11 ref12 keys + 12.33 ref
Smoking Jacket25.0%2 keys + 17.00 ref7 keys + 46.00 ref

Summer 2020 Cosmetics Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost16 keys + 47.32 ref
Expected value16 keys + 1.89 ref
Expected P/L−45.43 ref
ROI-4.2%
Win chance50%
Cheapest quoted inputHawk Warrior1 key + 43.33 ref each

Strange

strange
10× costIncomplete quotes
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputNo eligible quoteQuote unavailable each

Eligible Assassin inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Flamehawk1 key + 49.88 refNo eligible quote
Hawk Warrior1 key + 43.33 refNo eligible quote
Loaf Loafers4 keys + 6.66 refNo eligible quote
Smoking Jacket2 keys + 17.44 refNo eligible quote

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Breadcrab50.0%6 keys + 42.11 ref13 keys + 50.22 ref
Hypno-Eyes50.0%25 keys + 26.00 ref87 keys

How to trade up to Summer 2020 Cosmetics Collection items

How to trade up to Bird's Eye Viewer

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2020 Cosmetics Collection for a 16.67% chance of Bird's Eye Viewer, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Bird's Eye Viewer trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Breach and Bomb

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2020 Cosmetics Collection for a 16.67% chance of Breach and Bomb, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Breach and Bomb trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Flatliner

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2020 Cosmetics Collection for a 16.67% chance of Flatliner, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Flatliner trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Hazard Headgear

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2020 Cosmetics Collection for a 16.67% chance of Hazard Headgear, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Hazard Headgear trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Momma Kiev

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2020 Cosmetics Collection for a 16.67% chance of Momma Kiev, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Momma Kiev trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Tools of the Tourist

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2020 Cosmetics Collection for a 16.67% chance of Tools of the Tourist, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Tools of the Tourist trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Flamehawk

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Summer 2020 Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of Flamehawk, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Flamehawk trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Hawk Warrior

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Summer 2020 Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of Hawk Warrior, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Hawk Warrior trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Loaf Loafers

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Summer 2020 Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of Loaf Loafers, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Loaf Loafers trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Smoking Jacket

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Summer 2020 Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of Smoking Jacket, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Smoking Jacket trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Breadcrab

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Summer 2020 Cosmetics Collection for a 50.00% chance of Breadcrab, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Breadcrab trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Hypno-Eyes

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Summer 2020 Cosmetics Collection for a 50.00% chance of Hypno-Eyes, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Hypno-Eyes trade-up odds →

How Summer 2020 Cosmetics Collection odds work

With ten Summer 2020 Cosmetics Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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