How are Winter 2016 Cosmetics Collection trade-up odds calculated?

In a single-collection contract, every recorded item at the next rarity has an equal chance. In a mixed contract, each input contributes ten percent probability to its collection, then that collection share is divided equally among its possible outputs.

Can Strange and non-Strange items be mixed in one TF2 trade-up?

No. A contract must use either all Strange inputs or all non-Strange inputs. This page displays both markets separately.

TF2 collection guide · Saved market observations

Winter 2016 Cosmetics Collection Trade-Up Guide

Winter 2016 Cosmetics Collection contains 17 items across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade items include The Bomber Knight, The Snowmann. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

17Items

3Routes

LoadingDataset state

Data snapshot Tue, 03 Nov 2026 12:08:18 GMT. Loading the dataset does not recheck every listing; individual quotes can still be missing or stale.

Steam pricing is temporarily paused. Prices use backpack.tf only.

Winter 2016 Cosmetics Collection: choose your target tier

Start with the item you want, then choose the grade immediately below it. Winter 2016 Cosmetics Collection offers 3 adjacent-grade routes. Each row below assumes ten eligible inputs from this collection, with one result per contract; these are not case-opening probabilities.

10 Mercenary inputs → 1 Commando output

Choose among 7 input item names. Each of the 5 outputs has a 20.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 10.00% chance.

Commando targets

Compare Mercenary inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Commando inputs → 1 Assassin output

Choose among 5 input item names. Each of the 3 outputs has a 33.33% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 16.67% chance.

Assassin targets

Compare Commando inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Assassin inputs → 1 Elite output

Choose among 3 input item names. Each of the 2 outputs has a 50.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 25.00% chance.

Elite targets

Compare Assassin inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

Buying a higher-priced input in the same grade does not improve these single-collection odds. Price and quality still matter for cost: Strange and Non-Strange cannot be mixed. Read the odds guide or learn how expected profit differs from a guaranteed return.

Container information · Series #105

Unlocked Winter 2016 Cosmetic Case

Unlocked Winter 2016 Cosmetic Case contains items from the Winter 2016 Cosmetics Collection. The case was introduced on 2016-12-15. This is an unlocked case; no opening key is required.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Winter 2016 Cosmetics Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary7 items

80.00%

Commando5 items

16.00%

Assassin3 items

3.20%

Elite2 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade

Brain-Warming Wear
Mercenary · Chance: 11.43%
Elf Esteem
Mercenary · Chance: 11.43%
Handy Canes
Mercenary · Chance: 11.43%
Packable Provisions
Mercenary · Chance: 11.43%
Reader's Choice
Mercenary · Chance: 11.43%
Santarchimedes
Mercenary · Chance: 11.43%
Sweet Smissmas Sweater
Mercenary · Chance: 11.43%

Commando Grade

Bomb Beanie
Commando · Chance: 3.20%
Flammable Favor
Commando · Chance: 3.20%
Socked and Loaded
Commando · Chance: 3.20%
The Electric Twanger
Commando · Chance: 3.20%
Woolen Warmer
Commando · Chance: 3.20%

Assassin Grade

Pyro the Flamedeer
Assassin · Chance: 1.07%
Snowwing
Assassin · Chance: 1.07%
The Head Prize
Assassin · Chance: 1.07%

Elite Grade

The Bomber Knight
Elite · Chance: 0.40%
The Snowmann
Elite · Chance: 0.40%

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Winter 2016 Cosmetics Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost27.70 ref

Expected value6.75 ref

Expected P/L−20.95 ref

ROI-75.6%

Win chance0%

Cheapest quoted inputHandy Canes2.77 ref each

Strange

strange

10× cost30.00 ref

Expected valueIncomplete quotes

Expected P/LIncomplete quotes

ROIIncomplete quotes

Win chanceIncomplete quotes

Cheapest quoted inputBrain-Warming Wear3.00 ref each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Brain-Warming Wear	2.77 refChecks when viewed	3.00 refChecks when viewed
Elf Esteem	Sell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed	Sell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Handy Canes	2.77 refChecks when viewed	Sell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Packable Provisions	Sell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed	4.44 refChecks when viewed
Reader's Choice	Sell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed	4.22 refChecks when viewed
Santarchimedes	2.88 refChecks when viewed	3.88 refChecks when viewed
Sweet Smissmas Sweater	3.44 refChecks when viewed	5.11 refChecks when viewed

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid
Bomb Beanie	20.0%	6.88 refChecks when viewed	29.77 refChecks when viewed
Flammable Favor	20.0%	7.44 refChecks when viewed	Buy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed
Socked and Loaded	20.0%	5.55 refChecks when viewed	30.44 refChecks when viewed
The Electric Twanger	20.0%	7.00 refChecks when viewed	31.44 refChecks when viewed
Woolen Warmer	20.0%	6.88 refChecks when viewed	31.66 refChecks when viewed

Winter 2016 Cosmetics Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost1 key + 5.67 ref

Expected value1 key + 17.44 ref

Expected P/L+11.77 ref

ROI16.8%

Win chance33%

Cheapest quoted inputWoolen Warmer7.00 ref each

Strange

strange

10× cost4 keys + 44.88 ref

Expected value4 keys + 54.11 ref

Expected P/L+9.23 ref

ROI3.1%

Win chance33%

Cheapest quoted inputBomb Beanie30.22 ref each

Eligible Commando inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Bomb Beanie	7.11 refChecks when viewed	30.22 refChecks when viewed
Flammable Favor	7.77 refChecks when viewed	36.00 refChecks when viewed
Socked and Loaded	8.44 refChecks when viewed	32.00 refChecks when viewed
The Electric Twanger	7.44 refChecks when viewed	32.11 refChecks when viewed
Woolen Warmer	7.00 refChecks when viewed	Sell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid
Pyro the Flamedeer	33.3%	43.11 refChecks when viewed	3 keys + 13.00 refChecks when viewed
Snowwing	33.3%	7.00 refChecks when viewed	44.77 refChecks when viewed
The Head Prize	33.3%	3 keys + 2.22 refChecks when viewed	10 keys + 40.22 refChecks when viewed

Winter 2016 Cosmetics Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost1 key + 4.47 ref

Expected value16.55 ref

Expected P/L−52.25 ref

ROI-75.9%

Win chance0%

Cheapest quoted inputSnowwing6.88 ref each

Strange

strange

10× cost8 keys + 21.96 ref

Expected value1 key + 5.05 ref

Expected P/L−7 keys − 16.91 ref

ROI-87.1%

Win chance0%

Cheapest quoted inputSnowwing53.66 ref each

Eligible Assassin inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Pyro the Flamedeer	43.00 refChecks when viewed	3 keys + 16.11 refChecks when viewed
Snowwing	6.88 refChecks when viewed	53.66 refChecks when viewed
The Head Prize	3 keys + 4.22 refChecks when viewed	10 keys + 43.11 refChecks when viewed

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid	Markets
The Bomber Knight	50.0%	16.44 refChecks when viewed	1 key + 18.88 refChecks when viewed
The Snowmann	50.0%	16.66 refChecks when viewed	55.55 refChecks when viewed

How to trade up to Winter 2016 Cosmetics Collection items

How to trade up to Bomb Beanie

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2016 Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of Bomb Beanie, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Bomb Beanie trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Flammable Favor

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2016 Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of Flammable Favor, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Flammable Favor trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Socked and Loaded

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2016 Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of Socked and Loaded, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Socked and Loaded trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Electric Twanger

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2016 Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of The Electric Twanger, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Electric Twanger trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Woolen Warmer

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2016 Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of Woolen Warmer, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Woolen Warmer trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Pyro the Flamedeer

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Winter 2016 Cosmetics Collection for a 33.33% chance of Pyro the Flamedeer, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Pyro the Flamedeer trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Snowwing

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Winter 2016 Cosmetics Collection for a 33.33% chance of Snowwing, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Snowwing trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Head Prize

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Winter 2016 Cosmetics Collection for a 33.33% chance of The Head Prize, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Head Prize trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Bomber Knight

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Winter 2016 Cosmetics Collection for a 50.00% chance of The Bomber Knight, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Bomber Knight trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Snowmann

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Winter 2016 Cosmetics Collection for a 50.00% chance of The Snowmann, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Snowmann trade-up odds →

How Winter 2016 Cosmetics Collection odds work

With ten Winter 2016 Cosmetics Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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