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Winter 2016 Cosmetics Collection Trade-Up Guide

Winter 2016 Cosmetics Collection contains 17 items across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade items include The Bomber Knight, The Snowmann. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

17Items
3Routes
CheckingPrice state
Data snapshot
Unlocked Winter 2016 Cosmetic Case

Container information · Series #105

Unlocked Winter 2016 Cosmetic Case

Unlocked Winter 2016 Cosmetic Case contains items from the Winter 2016 Cosmetics Collection. The case was introduced on 2016-12-15. This is an unlocked case; no opening key is required.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Winter 2016 Cosmetics Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary7 items

80.00%

Commando5 items

16.00%

Assassin3 items

3.20%

Elite2 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade
  • Brain-Warming Wear

    Mercenary · Chance: 11.43%

  • Elf Esteem

    Mercenary · Chance: 11.43%

  • Handy Canes

    Mercenary · Chance: 11.43%

  • Packable Provisions

    Mercenary · Chance: 11.43%

  • Reader's Choice

    Mercenary · Chance: 11.43%

  • Santarchimedes

    Mercenary · Chance: 11.43%

  • Sweet Smissmas Sweater

    Mercenary · Chance: 11.43%

Commando Grade
  • Bomb Beanie

    Commando · Chance: 3.20%

  • Flammable Favor

    Commando · Chance: 3.20%

  • Socked and Loaded

    Commando · Chance: 3.20%

  • The Electric Twanger

    Commando · Chance: 3.20%

  • Woolen Warmer

    Commando · Chance: 3.20%

Assassin Grade
  • Pyro the Flamedeer

    Assassin · Chance: 1.07%

  • Snowwing

    Assassin · Chance: 1.07%

  • The Head Prize

    Assassin · Chance: 1.07%

Elite Grade
  • The Bomber Knight

    Elite · Chance: 0.40%

  • The Snowmann

    Elite · Chance: 0.40%

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Winter 2016 Cosmetics Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost30.50 ref
Expected value8.13 ref
Expected P/L−22.37 ref
ROI-73.3%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputElf Esteem3.05 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost31.10 ref
Expected value30.40 ref
Expected P/L−0.70 ref
ROI-2.3%
Win chance20%
Cheapest quoted inputHandy Canes3.11 ref each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Brain-Warming Wear3.11 ref3.11 ref
Elf Esteem3.05 ref3.11 ref
Handy Canes3.11 ref3.11 ref
Packable Provisions3.11 ref4.55 ref
Reader's Choice3.11 ref4.88 ref
Santarchimedes3.11 ref3.88 ref
Sweet Smissmas Sweater3.11 ref6.77 ref

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Bomb Beanie20.0%8.00 ref29.44 ref
Flammable Favor20.0%8.11 ref29.44 ref
Socked and Loaded20.0%8.55 ref31.00 ref
The Electric Twanger20.0%8.22 ref31.77 ref
Woolen Warmer20.0%7.77 ref30.33 ref

Winter 2016 Cosmetics Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost1 key + 21.17 ref
Expected value1 key + 22.77 ref
Expected P/L+1.60 ref
ROI1.9%
Win chance33%
Cheapest quoted inputThe Electric Twanger8.55 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost4 keys + 47.08 ref
Expected value4 keys + 55.63 ref
Expected P/L+8.55 ref
ROI2.8%
Win chance33%
Cheapest quoted inputBomb Beanie30.44 ref each

Eligible Commando inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Bomb Beanie8.88 ref30.44 ref
Flammable Favor9.00 ref31.44 ref
Socked and Loaded9.22 ref52.77 ref
The Electric Twanger8.55 ref32.00 ref
Woolen Warmer8.55 ref31.22 ref

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Pyro the Flamedeer33.3%54.66 ref3 keys + 25.11 ref
Snowwing33.3%6.55 ref36.33 ref
The Head Prize33.3%3 keys + 7.11 ref10 keys + 41.11 ref

Winter 2016 Cosmetics Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost1 key + 5.67 ref
Expected value16.99 ref
Expected P/L−53.01 ref
ROI-75.7%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputSnowwing7.00 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost5 keys + 59.45 ref
Expected value1 key + 6.94 ref
Expected P/L−4 keys − 52.51 ref
ROI-81.3%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputSnowwing38.11 ref each

Eligible Assassin inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Pyro the Flamedeer55.66 ref3 keys + 27.55 ref
Snowwing7.00 ref38.11 ref
The Head Prize3 keys + 12.55 ref11 keys + 4.44 ref

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
The Bomber Knight50.0%17.44 ref1 key + 12.11 ref
The Snowmann50.0%16.55 ref1 key + 1.77 ref

How to trade up to Winter 2016 Cosmetics Collection items

How to trade up to Bomb Beanie

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2016 Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of Bomb Beanie, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Bomb Beanie trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Flammable Favor

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2016 Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of Flammable Favor, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Flammable Favor trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Socked and Loaded

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2016 Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of Socked and Loaded, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Socked and Loaded trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Electric Twanger

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2016 Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of The Electric Twanger, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Electric Twanger trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Woolen Warmer

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2016 Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of Woolen Warmer, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Woolen Warmer trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Pyro the Flamedeer

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Winter 2016 Cosmetics Collection for a 33.33% chance of Pyro the Flamedeer, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Pyro the Flamedeer trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Snowwing

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Winter 2016 Cosmetics Collection for a 33.33% chance of Snowwing, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Snowwing trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Head Prize

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Winter 2016 Cosmetics Collection for a 33.33% chance of The Head Prize, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Head Prize trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Bomber Knight

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Winter 2016 Cosmetics Collection for a 50.00% chance of The Bomber Knight, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Bomber Knight trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Snowmann

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Winter 2016 Cosmetics Collection for a 50.00% chance of The Snowmann, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Snowmann trade-up odds →

How Winter 2016 Cosmetics Collection odds work

With ten Winter 2016 Cosmetics Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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