How are Pyroland Collection trade-up odds calculated?

In a single-collection contract, every recorded item at the next rarity has an equal chance. In a mixed contract, each input contributes ten percent probability to its collection, then that collection share is divided equally among its possible outputs.

Can Strange and non-Strange items be mixed in one TF2 trade-up?

No. A contract must use either all Strange inputs or all non-Strange inputs. This page displays both markets separately.

TF2 collection guide · Live calculator data

Pyroland Collection Trade-Up Guide

Pyroland Collection contains 25 decorated weapons across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade items include Rainbow Flame Thrower, Rainbow Grenade Launcher, Rainbow Sniper Rifle. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

25Items

3Routes

CheckingPrice state

Data snapshot Tue, 08 Sep 2026 21:59:44 GMT

Container information · Series #99

Pyroland Weapons Case

Pyroland Weapons Case contains items from the Pyroland Collection. The case was introduced on 2015-12-13. Requires a Tough Break Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Pyroland Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary11 items

80.00%

Commando7 items

16.00%

Assassin4 items

3.20%

Elite3 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade

Blue Mew SMG
Mercenary · Chance: 7.27%
Brain Candy Knife
Mercenary · Chance: 7.27%
Brain Candy Minigun
Mercenary · Chance: 7.27%
Brain Candy Pistol
Mercenary · Chance: 7.27%
Brain Candy Rocket Launcher
Mercenary · Chance: 7.27%
Flower Power Medi Gun
Mercenary · Chance: 7.27%
Flower Power Revolver
Mercenary · Chance: 7.27%
Flower Power Scattergun
Mercenary · Chance: 7.27%
Flower Power Shotgun
Mercenary · Chance: 7.27%
Shot to Hell Pistol
Mercenary · Chance: 7.27%
Stabbed to Hell Knife
Mercenary · Chance: 7.27%

Commando Grade

Blue Mew Knife
Commando · Chance: 2.29%
Blue Mew Pistol
Commando · Chance: 2.29%
Blue Mew Rocket Launcher
Commando · Chance: 2.29%
Blue Mew Scattergun
Commando · Chance: 2.29%
Mister Cuddles Minigun
Commando · Chance: 2.29%
Shot to Hell Scattergun
Commando · Chance: 2.29%
Torqued to Hell Wrench
Commando · Chance: 2.29%

Assassin Grade

Balloonicorn Flame Thrower
Assassin · Chance: 0.80%
Balloonicorn Sniper Rifle
Assassin · Chance: 0.80%
Sweet Dreams Grenade Launcher
Assassin · Chance: 0.80%
Sweet Dreams Stickybomb Launcher
Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

Elite Grade

Rainbow Flame Thrower
Elite · Chance: 0.27%
Rainbow Grenade Launcher
Elite · Chance: 0.27%
Rainbow Sniper Rifle
Elite · Chance: 0.27%

War Paint and decorated-weapon quotes must match both quality and wear. This guide compares Factory New only; select Minimal Wear, Field-Tested, Well-Worn or Battle Scarred in the calculator. Steam USD is recommended because backpack.tf wear-specific coverage is limited. A collection’s output wear follows that collection’s inputs, not another collection’s wear.

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Pyroland Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost$13.90

Expected value$5.26

Expected P/L−$8.64

ROI-62.2%

Win chance0%

Cheapest quoted inputBrain Candy Pistol$1.39 each

Strange

strange

10× cost$277.80

Expected valueIncomplete quotes

Expected P/LIncomplete quotes

ROIIncomplete quotes

Win chanceIncomplete quotes

Cheapest quoted inputBrain Candy Knife$27.78 each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Blue Mew SMG	$1.50	No eligible quote
Brain Candy Knife	$1.75	$27.78
Brain Candy Minigun	$1.49	$37.12
Brain Candy Pistol	$1.39	$36.08
Brain Candy Rocket Launcher	$1.44	$79.07
Flower Power Medi Gun	$2.67	No eligible quote
Flower Power Revolver	$2.02	No eligible quote
Flower Power Scattergun	$5.24	No eligible quote
Flower Power Shotgun	$1.75	No eligible quote
Shot to Hell Pistol	$2.12	No eligible quote
Stabbed to Hell Knife	$3.12	No eligible quote

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid
Blue Mew Knife	14.3%	$4.24	$44.48
Blue Mew Pistol	14.3%	$3.73	No eligible quote
Blue Mew Rocket Launcher	14.3%	$5.05	$105.59
Blue Mew Scattergun	14.3%	$6.26	No eligible quote
Mister Cuddles Minigun	14.3%	$7.49	No eligible quote
Shot to Hell Scattergun	14.3%	$5.11	$84.05
Torqued to Hell Wrench	14.3%	$4.94	No eligible quote

Pyroland Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost$77.80

Expected valueIncomplete quotes

Expected P/LIncomplete quotes

ROIIncomplete quotes

Win chanceIncomplete quotes

Cheapest quoted inputBlue Mew Pistol$7.78 each

Strange

strange

10× cost$902.90

Expected valueIncomplete quotes

Expected P/LIncomplete quotes

ROIIncomplete quotes

Win chanceIncomplete quotes

Cheapest quoted inputBlue Mew Knife$90.29 each

Eligible Commando inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Blue Mew Knife	$8.11	$90.29
Blue Mew Pistol	$7.78	No eligible quote
Blue Mew Rocket Launcher	$13.37	$154.99
Blue Mew Scattergun	$9.95	No eligible quote
Mister Cuddles Minigun	$21.64	No eligible quote
Shot to Hell Scattergun	$8.89	$208.18
Torqued to Hell Wrench	$8.63	No eligible quote

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid
Balloonicorn Flame Thrower	25.0%	No eligible quote	No eligible quote
Balloonicorn Sniper Rifle	25.0%	$33.05	No eligible quote
Sweet Dreams Grenade Launcher	25.0%	No eligible quote	No eligible quote
Sweet Dreams Stickybomb Launcher	25.0%	No eligible quote	No eligible quote

Pyroland Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost$928.70

Expected valueIncomplete quotes

Expected P/LIncomplete quotes

ROIIncomplete quotes

Win chanceIncomplete quotes

Cheapest quoted inputBalloonicorn Sniper Rifle$92.87 each

Strange

strange

10× costIncomplete quotes

Expected valueIncomplete quotes

Expected P/LIncomplete quotes

ROIIncomplete quotes

Win chanceIncomplete quotes

Cheapest quoted inputNo eligible quoteQuote unavailable each

Eligible Assassin inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Balloonicorn Flame Thrower	No eligible quote	No eligible quote
Balloonicorn Sniper Rifle	$92.87	No eligible quote
Sweet Dreams Grenade Launcher	No eligible quote	No eligible quote
Sweet Dreams Stickybomb Launcher	No eligible quote	No eligible quote

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid
Rainbow Flame Thrower	33.3%	No eligible quote	No eligible quote
Rainbow Grenade Launcher	33.3%	No eligible quote	No eligible quote
Rainbow Sniper Rifle	33.3%	$80.41	No eligible quote

How to trade up to Pyroland Collection items

How to trade up to Blue Mew Knife

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Pyroland Collection for a 14.29% chance of Blue Mew Knife, one of 7 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 7.14%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Blue Mew Knife trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Blue Mew Pistol

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Pyroland Collection for a 14.29% chance of Blue Mew Pistol, one of 7 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 7.14%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Blue Mew Pistol trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Blue Mew Rocket Launcher

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Pyroland Collection for a 14.29% chance of Blue Mew Rocket Launcher, one of 7 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 7.14%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Blue Mew Rocket Launcher trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Blue Mew Scattergun

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Pyroland Collection for a 14.29% chance of Blue Mew Scattergun, one of 7 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 7.14%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Blue Mew Scattergun trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Mister Cuddles Minigun

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Pyroland Collection for a 14.29% chance of Mister Cuddles Minigun, one of 7 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 7.14%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Mister Cuddles Minigun trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Shot to Hell Scattergun

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Pyroland Collection for a 14.29% chance of Shot to Hell Scattergun, one of 7 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 7.14%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Shot to Hell Scattergun trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Torqued to Hell Wrench

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Pyroland Collection for a 14.29% chance of Torqued to Hell Wrench, one of 7 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 7.14%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Torqued to Hell Wrench trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Balloonicorn Flame Thrower

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Pyroland Collection for a 25.00% chance of Balloonicorn Flame Thrower, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Balloonicorn Flame Thrower trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Balloonicorn Sniper Rifle

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Pyroland Collection for a 25.00% chance of Balloonicorn Sniper Rifle, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Balloonicorn Sniper Rifle trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Sweet Dreams Grenade Launcher

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Pyroland Collection for a 25.00% chance of Sweet Dreams Grenade Launcher, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Sweet Dreams Grenade Launcher trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Sweet Dreams Stickybomb Launcher

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Pyroland Collection for a 25.00% chance of Sweet Dreams Stickybomb Launcher, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Sweet Dreams Stickybomb Launcher trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Rainbow Flame Thrower

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Pyroland Collection for a 33.33% chance of Rainbow Flame Thrower, one of 3 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Rainbow Flame Thrower trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Rainbow Grenade Launcher

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Pyroland Collection for a 33.33% chance of Rainbow Grenade Launcher, one of 3 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Rainbow Grenade Launcher trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Rainbow Sniper Rifle

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Pyroland Collection for a 33.33% chance of Rainbow Sniper Rifle, one of 3 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Rainbow Sniper Rifle trade-up odds →

How Pyroland Collection odds work

With ten Pyroland Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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