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TF2 collection guide · Saved market observations

Summer 2022 Cosmetics Collection Trade-Up Guide

Summer 2022 Cosmetics Collection contains 25 items across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade items include Rocko, The Decorated Veteran. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

25Items
3Routes
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Summer 2022 Cosmetics Collection: choose your target tier

Start with the item you want, then choose the grade immediately below it. Summer 2022 Cosmetics Collection offers 3 adjacent-grade routes. Each row below assumes ten eligible inputs from this collection, with one result per contract; these are not case-opening probabilities.

10 Mercenary inputs → 1 Commando output

Choose among 10 input item names. Each of the 8 outputs has a 12.50% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 6.25% chance.

Commando targets

Compare Mercenary inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Commando inputs → 1 Assassin output

Choose among 8 input item names. Each of the 5 outputs has a 20.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 10.00% chance.

Assassin targets

Compare Commando inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Assassin inputs → 1 Elite output

Choose among 5 input item names. Each of the 2 outputs has a 50.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 25.00% chance.

Elite targets

Compare Assassin inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

Buying a higher-priced input in the same grade does not improve these single-collection odds. Price and quality still matter for cost: Strange and Non-Strange cannot be mixed. Read the odds guide or learn how expected profit differs from a guaranteed return.

Summer 2022 Cosmetic Case

Container information · Series #136

Summer 2022 Cosmetic Case

Summer 2022 Cosmetic Case contains items from the Summer 2022 Cosmetics Collection. The case was introduced on 2022-07-29. Requires a Summer 2022 Cosmetic Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Summer 2022 Cosmetics Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary10 items

80.00%

Commando8 items

16.00%

Assassin5 items

3.20%

Elite2 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade
  • Barefoot Brawler

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Combat Casual

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Hawaiian Hunter

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Pest's Pads

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Tactical Turtleneck

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • The Chaser

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • The Team Player

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • The Throttlehead

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • The Western Wraps

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Undercover Brolly

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

Commando Grade
  • Boston Brain Bucket

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

  • Fizzy Pharmacist

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

  • Squatter's Right

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

  • The Detective

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

  • The Hawaiian Hangover

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

  • The Lawnmaker

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

  • The Ripped Rider

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

  • Tropical Camo

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

Assassin Grade
  • Head Banger

    Assassin · Chance: 0.64%

  • Kazan Karategi

    Assassin · Chance: 0.64%

  • Monsieur Grenouille

    Assassin · Chance: 0.64%

  • Night Vision Gawkers

    Assassin · Chance: 0.64%

  • Soda Cap

    Assassin · Chance: 0.64%

Elite Grade
  • Rocko

    Elite · Chance: 0.40%

  • The Decorated Veteran

    Elite · Chance: 0.40%

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Summer 2022 Cosmetics Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost30.00 ref
Expected value25.18 ref
Expected P/L−4.82 ref
ROI-16.1%
Win chance25%
Cheapest quoted inputCombat Casual3.00 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost62.20 ref
Expected value1 key + 6.85 ref
Expected P/L+8.97 ref
ROI14.4%
Win chance25%
Cheapest quoted inputCombat Casual6.22 ref each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Barefoot Brawler7.66 refChecks when viewed16.77 refChecks when viewed
Combat Casual3.00 refChecks when viewed6.22 refChecks when viewed
Hawaiian Hunter3.66 refChecks when viewed10.72 refChecks when viewed
Pest's Pads3.22 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Tactical Turtleneck3.88 refChecks when viewed9.44 refChecks when viewed
The Chaser24.44 refChecks when viewed58.11 refChecks when viewed
The Team PlayerSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
The Throttlehead4.22 refChecks when viewed8.55 refChecks when viewed
The Western Wraps11.77 refChecks when viewed32.11 refChecks when viewed
Undercover Brolly3.11 refChecks when viewed6.88 refChecks when viewed

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Boston Brain Bucket12.5%5.00 refChecks when viewed13.55 refChecks when viewed
Fizzy Pharmacist12.5%21.77 refChecks when viewed60.22 refChecks when viewed
Squatter's Right12.5%7.22 refChecks when viewed20.33 refChecks when viewed
The Detective12.5%4.55 refChecks when viewed16.77 refChecks when viewed
The Hawaiian Hangover12.5%1 key + 23.11 refChecks when viewed3 keys + 28.00 refChecks when viewed
The Lawnmaker12.5%11.66 refChecks when viewed27.55 refChecks when viewed
The Ripped Rider12.5%20.00 refChecks when viewed56.11 refChecks when viewed
Tropical Camo12.5%43.77 refChecks when viewed2 keys + 25.22 refChecks when viewed

Summer 2022 Cosmetics Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost47.70 ref
Expected value46.35 ref
Expected P/L−1.35 ref
ROI-2.8%
Win chance40%
Cheapest quoted inputThe Detective4.77 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost2 keys + 12.44 ref
Expected value2 keys + 5.37 ref
Expected P/L−7.07 ref
ROI-5.0%
Win chance40%
Cheapest quoted inputBoston Brain Bucket14.11 ref each

Eligible Commando inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Boston Brain Bucket5.33 refChecks when viewed14.11 refChecks when viewed
Fizzy Pharmacist22.00 refChecks when viewed61.16 refChecks when viewed
Squatter's Right7.33 refChecks when viewed21.11 refChecks when viewed
The Detective4.77 refChecks when viewed17.55 refChecks when viewed
The Hawaiian Hangover1 key + 29.55 refChecks when viewed4 keys + 15.66 refChecks when viewed
The Lawnmaker11.66 refChecks when viewed28.11 refChecks when viewed
The Ripped Rider20.33 refChecks when viewed58.33 refChecks when viewed
Tropical Camo43.77 refChecks when viewed3 keys + 14.44 refChecks when viewed

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Head Banger20.0%17.22 refChecks when viewed1 key + 4.44 refChecks when viewed
Kazan Karategi20.0%1 key + 28.66 refChecks when viewed3 keys + 39.77 refChecks when viewed
Monsieur Grenouille20.0%30.00 refChecks when viewed1 key + 44.44 refChecks when viewed
Night Vision Gawkers20.0%1 key + 10.66 refChecks when viewed2 keys + 36.11 refChecks when viewed
Soda Cap20.0%16.55 refChecks when viewed1 key + 30.77 refChecks when viewed

Summer 2022 Cosmetics Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost2 keys + 40.14 ref
Expected value2 keys + 10.99 ref
Expected P/L−29.14 ref
ROI-17.3%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputSoda Cap16.88 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost12 keys + 10.74 ref
Expected value9 keys + 48.71 ref
Expected P/L−2 keys − 26.35 ref
ROI-19.8%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputHead Banger1 key + 13.94 ref each

Eligible Assassin inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Head Banger17.66 refChecks when viewed1 key + 13.94 refChecks when viewed
Kazan Karategi1 key + 30.33 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Monsieur Grenouille29.66 refChecks when viewed1 key + 54.88 refChecks when viewed
Night Vision Gawkers1 key + 12.44 refChecks when viewed3 keys + 9.77 refChecks when viewed
Soda Cap16.88 refChecks when viewed1 key + 32.66 refChecks when viewed

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Rocko50.0%1 key + 54.77 refChecks when viewed7 keys + 46.88 refChecks when viewed
The Decorated Veteran50.0%2 keys + 31.55 refChecks when viewed11 keys + 50.55 refChecks when viewed

How to trade up to Summer 2022 Cosmetics Collection items

How to trade up to Boston Brain Bucket

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2022 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Boston Brain Bucket, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Boston Brain Bucket trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Fizzy Pharmacist

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2022 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Fizzy Pharmacist, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Fizzy Pharmacist trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Squatter's Right

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2022 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Squatter's Right, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Squatter's Right trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Detective

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2022 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of The Detective, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Detective trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Hawaiian Hangover

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2022 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of The Hawaiian Hangover, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Hawaiian Hangover trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Lawnmaker

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2022 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of The Lawnmaker, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Lawnmaker trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Ripped Rider

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2022 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of The Ripped Rider, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Ripped Rider trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Tropical Camo

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2022 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Tropical Camo, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Tropical Camo trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Head Banger

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Summer 2022 Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of Head Banger, one of 5 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Head Banger trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Kazan Karategi

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Summer 2022 Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of Kazan Karategi, one of 5 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Kazan Karategi trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Monsieur Grenouille

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Summer 2022 Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of Monsieur Grenouille, one of 5 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Monsieur Grenouille trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Night Vision Gawkers

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Summer 2022 Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of Night Vision Gawkers, one of 5 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Night Vision Gawkers trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Soda Cap

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Summer 2022 Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of Soda Cap, one of 5 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Soda Cap trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Rocko

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Summer 2022 Cosmetics Collection for a 50.00% chance of Rocko, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Rocko trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Decorated Veteran

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Summer 2022 Cosmetics Collection for a 50.00% chance of The Decorated Veteran, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Decorated Veteran trade-up odds →

How Summer 2022 Cosmetics Collection odds work

With ten Summer 2022 Cosmetics Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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