How are Summer 2022 Cosmetics Collection trade-up odds calculated?

In a single-collection contract, every recorded item at the next rarity has an equal chance. In a mixed contract, each input contributes ten percent probability to its collection, then that collection share is divided equally among its possible outputs.

Can Strange and non-Strange items be mixed in one TF2 trade-up?

No. A contract must use either all Strange inputs or all non-Strange inputs. This page displays both markets separately.

TF2 collection guide · Live calculator data

Summer 2022 Cosmetics Collection Trade-Up Guide

Summer 2022 Cosmetics Collection contains 25 items across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade items include Rocko, The Decorated Veteran. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

25Items

3Routes

CheckingPrice state

Data snapshot Tue, 08 Sep 2026 22:02:16 GMT

Container information · Series #136

Summer 2022 Cosmetic Case

Summer 2022 Cosmetic Case contains items from the Summer 2022 Cosmetics Collection. The case was introduced on 2022-07-29. Requires a Summer 2022 Cosmetic Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Summer 2022 Cosmetics Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary10 items

80.00%

Commando8 items

16.00%

Assassin5 items

3.20%

Elite2 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade

Barefoot Brawler
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
Combat Casual
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
Hawaiian Hunter
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
Pest's Pads
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
Tactical Turtleneck
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
The Chaser
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
The Team Player
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
The Throttlehead
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
The Western Wraps
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
Undercover Brolly
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

Commando Grade

Boston Brain Bucket
Commando · Chance: 2.00%
Fizzy Pharmacist
Commando · Chance: 2.00%
Squatter's Right
Commando · Chance: 2.00%
The Detective
Commando · Chance: 2.00%
The Hawaiian Hangover
Commando · Chance: 2.00%
The Lawnmaker
Commando · Chance: 2.00%
The Ripped Rider
Commando · Chance: 2.00%
Tropical Camo
Commando · Chance: 2.00%

Assassin Grade

Head Banger
Assassin · Chance: 0.64%
Kazan Karategi
Assassin · Chance: 0.64%
Monsieur Grenouille
Assassin · Chance: 0.64%
Night Vision Gawkers
Assassin · Chance: 0.64%
Soda Cap
Assassin · Chance: 0.64%

Elite Grade

Rocko
Elite · Chance: 0.40%
The Decorated Veteran
Elite · Chance: 0.40%

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Summer 2022 Cosmetics Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost31.10 ref

Expected value31.45 ref

Expected P/L+0.36 ref

ROI1.1%

Win chance25%

Cheapest quoted inputPest's Pads3.11 ref each

Strange

strange

10× cost56.60 ref

Expected value1 key + 4.20 ref

Expected P/L+11.93 ref

ROI21.1%

Win chance38%

Cheapest quoted inputPest's Pads5.66 ref each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Barefoot Brawler	8.94 ref	21.33 ref
Combat Casual	3.55 ref	7.88 ref
Hawaiian Hunter	4.66 ref	13.33 ref
Pest's Pads	3.11 ref	5.66 ref
Tactical Turtleneck	4.22 ref	8.88 ref
The Chaser	27.22 ref	55.00 ref
The Team Player	3.33 ref	29.22 ref
The Throttlehead	5.44 ref	7.44 ref
The Western Wraps	13.55 ref	59.11 ref
Undercover Brolly	3.33 ref	No eligible quote

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid
Boston Brain Bucket	12.5%	3.22 ref	16.11 ref
Fizzy Pharmacist	12.5%	25.33 ref	59.22 ref
Squatter's Right	12.5%	8.00 ref	22.00 ref
The Detective	12.5%	5.11 ref	17.77 ref
The Hawaiian Hangover	12.5%	1 key + 56.11 ref	3 keys + 9.33 ref
The Lawnmaker	12.5%	12.11 ref	26.88 ref
The Ripped Rider	12.5%	20.55 ref	49.77 ref
Tropical Camo	12.5%	56.88 ref	2 keys + 25.55 ref

Summer 2022 Cosmetics Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost35.50 ref

Expected value47.71 ref

Expected P/L+12.21 ref

ROI34.4%

Win chance40%

Cheapest quoted inputBoston Brain Bucket3.55 ref each

Strange

strange

10× cost2 keys + 49.04 ref

Expected value2 keys + 3.73 ref

Expected P/L−45.31 ref

ROI-25.5%

Win chance40%

Cheapest quoted inputThe Detective17.77 ref each

Eligible Commando inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Boston Brain Bucket	3.55 ref	No eligible quote
Fizzy Pharmacist	25.77 ref	61.55 ref
Squatter's Right	11.44 ref	22.66 ref
The Detective	5.50 ref	17.77 ref
The Hawaiian Hangover	1 key + 45.88 ref	3 keys + 18.61 ref
The Lawnmaker	12.11 ref	28.22 ref
The Ripped Rider	20.66 ref	52.44 ref
Tropical Camo	57.33 ref	2 keys + 28.22 ref

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid
Head Banger	20.0%	19.00 ref	1 key + 2.22 ref
Kazan Karategi	20.0%	1 key + 27.77 ref	3 keys + 33.77 ref
Monsieur Grenouille	20.0%	28.33 ref	1 key + 19.22 ref
Night Vision Gawkers	20.0%	1 key + 12.11 ref	3 keys + 22.77 ref
Soda Cap	20.0%	22.66 ref	1 key + 5.00 ref

Summer 2022 Cosmetics Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost3 keys + 5.81 ref

Expected value2 keys + 16.78 ref

Expected P/L−53.37 ref

ROI-26.8%

Win chance0%

Cheapest quoted inputHead Banger19.88 ref each

Strange

strange

10× cost13 keys + 12.01 ref

Expected value11 keys + 15.78 ref

Expected P/L−1 key − 60.56 ref

ROI-14.7%

Win chance50%

Cheapest quoted inputHead Banger1 key + 20.50 ref each

Eligible Assassin inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Head Banger	19.88 ref	1 key + 20.50 ref
Kazan Karategi	1 key + 31.11 ref	No eligible quote
Monsieur Grenouille	28.66 ref	No eligible quote
Night Vision Gawkers	No eligible quote	3 keys + 30.88 ref
Soda Cap	22.77 ref	No eligible quote

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid	Markets
Rocko	50.0%	1 key + 54.11 ref	8 keys + 38.11 ref
The Decorated Veteran	50.0%	2 keys + 43.77 ref	13 keys + 57.77 ref

How to trade up to Summer 2022 Cosmetics Collection items

How to trade up to Boston Brain Bucket

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2022 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Boston Brain Bucket, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Boston Brain Bucket trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Fizzy Pharmacist

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2022 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Fizzy Pharmacist, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Fizzy Pharmacist trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Squatter's Right

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2022 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Squatter's Right, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Squatter's Right trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Detective

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2022 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of The Detective, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Detective trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Hawaiian Hangover

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2022 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of The Hawaiian Hangover, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Hawaiian Hangover trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Lawnmaker

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2022 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of The Lawnmaker, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Lawnmaker trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Ripped Rider

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2022 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of The Ripped Rider, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Ripped Rider trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Tropical Camo

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2022 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Tropical Camo, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Tropical Camo trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Head Banger

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Summer 2022 Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of Head Banger, one of 5 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Head Banger trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Kazan Karategi

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Summer 2022 Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of Kazan Karategi, one of 5 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Kazan Karategi trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Monsieur Grenouille

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Summer 2022 Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of Monsieur Grenouille, one of 5 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Monsieur Grenouille trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Night Vision Gawkers

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Summer 2022 Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of Night Vision Gawkers, one of 5 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Night Vision Gawkers trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Soda Cap

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Summer 2022 Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of Soda Cap, one of 5 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Soda Cap trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Rocko

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Summer 2022 Cosmetics Collection for a 50.00% chance of Rocko, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Rocko trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Decorated Veteran

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Summer 2022 Cosmetics Collection for a 50.00% chance of The Decorated Veteran, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Decorated Veteran trade-up odds →

How Summer 2022 Cosmetics Collection odds work

With ten Summer 2022 Cosmetics Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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