How are Confidential Collection trade-up odds calculated?

In a single-collection contract, every recorded item at the next rarity has an equal chance. In a mixed contract, each input contributes ten percent probability to its collection, then that collection share is divided equally among its possible outputs.

Can Strange and non-Strange items be mixed in one TF2 trade-up?

No. A contract must use either all Strange inputs or all non-Strange inputs. This page displays both markets separately.

TF2 collection guide · Live calculator data

Confidential Collection Trade-Up Calculator

Compare every eligible Confidential Collection route using current acquisition asks, liquidation bids, exact output odds, expected value and Strange pricing. Prices are estimates—not a guarantee that ten listings are available at the displayed amount.

10Items

3Routes

CheckingPrice state

Data snapshot Tue, 08 Sep 2026 19:09:46 GMT

Container information · Series #97

Confidential Collection Case

An Invasion Community Update case containing the Confidential Collection. Requires an Invasion Community Update Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

Possible Container Contents

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary4 items

80.00%

Commando3 items

16.00%

Assassin2 items

3.20%

Elite1 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade

A Head Full of Hot Air
Mercenary · Chance: 20.00%
Cadet Visor
Mercenary · Chance: 20.00%
The Graylien
Mercenary · Chance: 20.00%
The Space Diver
Mercenary · Chance: 20.00%

Commando Grade

Jupiter Jetpack
Commando · Chance: 5.33%
Phononaut
Commando · Chance: 5.33%
The C.A.P.P.E.R
Commando · Chance: 5.33%

Assassin Grade

Space Hamster Hammy
Assassin · Chance: 1.60%
Taunt: Burstchester
Assassin · Chance: 1.60%

Elite Grade

Batsaber
Elite · Chance: 0.80%

Case-opening ROI · base-item estimate

Cost to open = case + 1 key. Uses the assumed grade odds above and non-Strange liquidation prices. Strange, Unusual and bonus drops are excluded; this is not an all-outcomes unboxing ROI.

An Invasion Community Update Key is required in-game. This model values that opening cost at one standard TF2 key as requested; actual key prices can differ.

Case priceAwaiting quote

Opening key · 1 key1 key

Total cost to openAwaiting quote

Expected item value2 keys + 1.63 ref

Expected profit / lossIncomplete quotes

ROI · profit ÷ opening costIncomplete quotes

Outputs quoted: 10/10. Case: lowest observed eligible backpack.tf bot sell listing. Outputs: eligible bot buy orders.

No current case quote in this price mode. Try the other price source below.

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Confidential Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost6 keys + 39.52 ref

Expected value4 keys + 36.92 ref

Expected P/L−2 keys − 2.60 ref

ROI-30.8%

Win chance33%

Cheapest quoted inputThe Space Diver42.55 ref each

Strange

strange

10× cost24 keys + 62.68 ref

Expected value22 keys + 14.40 ref

Expected P/L−2 keys − 48.28 ref

ROI-11.0%

Win chance33%

Cheapest quoted inputThe Space Diver2 keys + 32.00 ref each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
A Head Full of Hot Air	1 key + 9.66 ref	2 keys + 32.00 ref
Cadet Visor	42.77 ref	2 keys + 50.55 ref
The Graylien	51.44 ref	2 keys + 49.22 ref
The Space Diver	42.55 ref	2 keys + 32.00 ref

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid
Jupiter Jetpack	33.3%	49.88 ref	3 keys + 42.88 ref
Phononaut	33.3%	58.22 ref	3 keys + 34.66 ref
The C.A.P.P.E.R	33.3%	12 keys + 2.66 ref	59 keys + 30.00 ref

Confidential Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost9 keys + 13.23 ref

Expected value9 keys + 17.88 ref

Expected P/L+4.65 ref

ROI0.8%

Win chance50%

Cheapest quoted inputPhononaut59.22 ref each

Strange

strange

10× cost38 keys + 5.36 ref

Expected value34 keys + 62.55 ref

Expected P/L−3 keys − 7.14 ref

ROI-8.2%

Win chance50%

Cheapest quoted inputJupiter Jetpack3 keys + 52.00 ref each

Eligible Commando inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Jupiter Jetpack	1 key + 4.11 ref	3 keys + 52.00 ref
Phononaut	59.22 ref	No eligible quote
The C.A.P.P.E.R	12 keys + 2.22 ref	No eligible quote

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid	Markets
Space Hamster Hammy	50.0%	6 keys + 29.66 ref	23 keys + 60.11 ref
Taunt: Burstchester	50.0%	12 keys + 6.11 ref	46 keys + 0.66 ref

Confidential Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost64 keys + 39.28 ref

Expected value55 keys + 7.22 ref

Expected P/L−9 keys − 32.06 ref

ROI-14.7%

Win chance0%

Cheapest quoted inputSpace Hamster Hammy6 keys + 29.66 ref each

Strange

strange

10× cost340 keys + 55.50 ref

Expected value220 keys + 0.11 ref

Expected P/L−120 keys − 55.39 ref

ROI-35.5%

Win chance0%

Cheapest quoted inputSpace Hamster Hammy34 keys + 5.55 ref each

Eligible Assassin inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask	Markets
Space Hamster Hammy	6 keys + 29.66 ref	34 keys + 5.55 ref
Taunt: Burstchester	12 keys + 0.11 ref	No eligible quote

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid	Markets
Batsaber	100.0%	55 keys + 7.22 ref	220 keys + 0.11 ref

How Confidential Collection odds work

With ten Confidential Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.