How are Confidential Collection trade-up odds calculated?

In a single-collection contract, every recorded item at the next rarity has an equal chance. In a mixed contract, each input contributes ten percent probability to its collection, then that collection share is divided equally among its possible outputs.

Can Strange and non-Strange items be mixed in one TF2 trade-up?

No. A contract must use either all Strange inputs or all non-Strange inputs. This page displays both markets separately.

TF2 collection guide · Saved market observations

Confidential Collection Trade-Up Guide

Confidential Collection contains 10 items across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade item is Batsaber. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

10Items

3Routes

LoadingDataset state

Data snapshot Tue, 03 Nov 2026 12:08:18 GMT. Loading the dataset does not recheck every listing; individual quotes can still be missing or stale.

Steam pricing is temporarily paused. Prices use backpack.tf only.

Confidential Collection: choose your target tier

Start with the item you want, then choose the grade immediately below it. Confidential Collection offers 3 adjacent-grade routes. Each row below assumes ten eligible inputs from this collection, with one result per contract; these are not case-opening probabilities.

10 Mercenary inputs → 1 Commando output

Choose among 4 input item names. Each of the 3 outputs has a 33.33% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 16.67% chance.

Commando targets

Compare Mercenary inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Commando inputs → 1 Assassin output

Choose among 3 input item names. Each of the 2 outputs has a 50.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 25.00% chance.

Assassin targets

Compare Commando inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Assassin inputs → 1 Elite output

Choose among 2 input item names. Each of the 1 outputs has a 100.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 50.00% chance.

Elite targets

Batsaber

Compare Assassin inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

Buying a higher-priced input in the same grade does not improve these single-collection odds. Price and quality still matter for cost: Strange and Non-Strange cannot be mixed. Read the odds guide or learn how expected profit differs from a guaranteed return.

Container information · Series #97

Confidential Collection Case

An Invasion Community Update case containing the Confidential Collection. Requires an Invasion Community Update Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Confidential Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary4 items

80.00%

Commando3 items

16.00%

Assassin2 items

3.20%

Elite1 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade

A Head Full of Hot Air
Mercenary · Chance: 20.00%
Cadet Visor
Mercenary · Chance: 20.00%
The Graylien
Mercenary · Chance: 20.00%
The Space Diver
Mercenary · Chance: 20.00%

Commando Grade

Jupiter Jetpack
Commando · Chance: 5.33%
Phononaut
Commando · Chance: 5.33%
The C.A.P.P.E.R
Commando · Chance: 5.33%

Assassin Grade

Space Hamster Hammy
Assassin · Chance: 1.60%
Taunt: Burstchester
Assassin · Chance: 1.60%

Elite Grade

Batsaber
Elite · Chance: 0.80%

Case-opening ROI · base-item estimate

Cost to open = case + 1 key. Uses the assumed grade odds above and non-Strange liquidation prices. Strange, Unusual and bonus drops are excluded; this is not an all-outcomes unboxing ROI.

An Invasion Community Update Key is required in-game. This model values that opening cost at one standard TF2 key as requested; actual key prices can differ.

Case priceAwaiting quote

Opening key · 1 key1 key

Total cost to openAwaiting quote

Expected item value2 keys + 0.72 ref

Expected profit / lossIncomplete quotes

ROI · profit ÷ opening costIncomplete quotes

Outputs quoted: 10/10. Case: lowest observed eligible backpack.tf bot sell listing. Outputs: eligible bot buy orders.

No current case quote in this price mode. Only backpack.tf pricing is currently enabled.

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Confidential Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost6 keys + 38.42 ref

Expected value4 keys + 50.66 ref

Expected P/L−1 key − 52.09 ref

ROI-27.4%

Win chance33%

Cheapest quoted inputCadet Visor42.44 ref each

Strange

strange

10× cost29 keys + 16.53 ref

Expected value22 keys + 45.26 ref

Expected P/L−6 keys − 35.60 ref

ROI-22.4%

Win chance33%

Cheapest quoted inputCadet Visor2 keys + 59.55 ref each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
A Head Full of Hot Air	45.66 refChecks when viewed	3 keys + 6.55 refChecks when viewed
Cadet Visor	42.44 refChecks when viewed	2 keys + 59.55 refChecks when viewed
The Graylien	Sell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed	2 keys + 63.22 refChecks when viewed
The Space Diver	Sell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed	Sell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid
Jupiter Jetpack	33.3%	61.66 refChecks when viewed	3 keys + 59.33 refChecks when viewed
Phononaut	33.3%	62.00 refChecks when viewed	4 keys + 11.11 refChecks when viewed
The C.A.P.P.E.R	33.3%	12 keys + 28.33 refChecks when viewed	60 keys + 1.00 refChecks when viewed

Confidential Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost9 keys + 53.23 ref

Expected value9 keys + 51.72 ref

Expected P/L−1.51 ref

ROI-0.2%

Win chance50%

Cheapest quoted inputJupiter Jetpack63.22 ref each

Strange

strange

10× cost42 keys + 4.64 ref

Expected value38 keys + 1.22 ref

Expected P/L−4 keys − 3.42 ref

ROI-9.6%

Win chance50%

Cheapest quoted inputJupiter Jetpack4 keys + 13.33 ref each

Eligible Commando inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Jupiter Jetpack	63.22 refChecks when viewed	4 keys + 13.33 refChecks when viewed
Phononaut	1 key + 5.55 refChecks when viewed	Sell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
The C.A.P.P.E.R	Sell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed	74 keys + 9.00 refChecks when viewed

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid	Markets
Space Hamster Hammy	50.0%	6 keys + 36.00 refChecks when viewed	30 keys + 2.44 refChecks when viewed
Taunt: Burstchester	50.0%	13 keys + 3.11 refChecks when viewed	46 keysChecks when viewed

Confidential Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost134 keys + 30.38 ref

Expected value53 keys + 51.00 ref

Expected P/L−80 keys − 43.71 ref

ROI-60.0%

Win chance0%

Cheapest quoted inputTaunt: Burstchester13 keys + 28.77 ref each

Strange

strange

10× cost550 keys

Expected value238 keys + 54.55 ref

Expected P/L−311 keys − 9.78 ref

ROI-56.6%

Win chance0%

Cheapest quoted inputTaunt: Burstchester55 keys each

Eligible Assassin inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask	Markets
Space Hamster Hammy	Sell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed	Sell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Taunt: Burstchester	13 keys + 28.77 refChecks when viewed	55 keysChecks when viewed

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid	Markets
Batsaber	100.0%	53 keys + 51.00 refChecks when viewed	238 keys + 54.55 refChecks when viewed

How to trade up to Confidential Collection items

How to trade up to Jupiter Jetpack

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Confidential Collection for a 33.33% chance of Jupiter Jetpack, one of 3 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Jupiter Jetpack trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Phononaut

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Confidential Collection for a 33.33% chance of Phononaut, one of 3 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Phononaut trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The C.A.P.P.E.R

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Confidential Collection for a 33.33% chance of The C.A.P.P.E.R, one of 3 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The C.A.P.P.E.R trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Space Hamster Hammy

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Confidential Collection for a 50.00% chance of Space Hamster Hammy, one of 2 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Space Hamster Hammy trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Taunt: Burstchester

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Confidential Collection for a 50.00% chance of Taunt: Burstchester, one of 2 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Taunt: Burstchester trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Batsaber

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Confidential Collection for a 100.00% chance of Batsaber, one of 1 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 50.00%. The ten-input single-collection recipe guarantees the item type, not its selling price or a profit; the mixed recipe does not guarantee the item.

Calculate Batsaber trade-up odds →

How Confidential Collection odds work

With ten Confidential Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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