T2TF2TradeUps.comOpen calculator

TF2 collection guide · Saved market observations

Scream Fortress XII Collection Trade-Up Guide

Scream Fortress XII Collection contains 15 War Paint designs across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade item is Spectrum Splattered War Paint. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

15Items
3Routes
LoadingDataset state
Data snapshot . Loading the dataset does not recheck every listing; individual quotes can still be missing or stale.

Steam pricing is temporarily paused. Prices use backpack.tf only.

Scream Fortress XII Collection: choose your target tier

Start with the item you want, then choose the grade immediately below it. Scream Fortress XII Collection offers 3 adjacent-grade routes. Each row below assumes ten eligible inputs from this collection, with one result per contract; these are not case-opening probabilities.

10 Mercenary inputs → 1 Commando output

Choose among 7 input item names. Each of the 4 outputs has a 25.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 12.50% chance.

Commando targets

Compare Mercenary inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Commando inputs → 1 Assassin output

Choose among 4 input item names. Each of the 3 outputs has a 33.33% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 16.67% chance.

Assassin targets

Compare Commando inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Assassin inputs → 1 Elite output

Choose among 3 input item names. Each of the 1 outputs has a 100.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 50.00% chance.

Elite targets

Compare Assassin inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

Buying a higher-priced input in the same grade does not improve these single-collection odds. Price and quality still matter for cost: Strange and Non-Strange cannot be mixed, and this guide’s market comparison uses Factory New wear. Read the odds guide or learn how expected profit differs from a guaranteed return.

Scream Fortress XII War Paint Case

Container information · Series #129

Scream Fortress XII War Paint Case

Scream Fortress XII War Paint Case contains items from the Scream Fortress XII Collection. The case was introduced on 2020-10-03. Requires a Scream Fortress XII War Paint Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Scream Fortress XII Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary7 items

80.00%

Commando4 items

16.00%

Assassin3 items

3.20%

Elite1 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade
  • Candy Coated War Paint

    Mercenary · Chance: 11.43%

  • Death Deluxe War Paint

    Mercenary · Chance: 11.43%

  • Eyestalker War Paint

    Mercenary · Chance: 11.43%

  • Gourdy Green War Paint

    Mercenary · Chance: 11.43%

  • Organ-ically Hellraised War Paint

    Mercenary · Chance: 11.43%

  • Portal Plastered War Paint

    Mercenary · Chance: 11.43%

  • Spider Season War Paint

    Mercenary · Chance: 11.43%

Commando Grade
  • Crawlspace Critters War Paint

    Commando · Chance: 4.00%

  • Raving Dead War Paint

    Commando · Chance: 4.00%

  • Spider's Cluster War Paint

    Commando · Chance: 4.00%

  • Sweet Toothed War Paint

    Commando · Chance: 4.00%

Assassin Grade
  • Helldriver War Paint

    Assassin · Chance: 1.07%

  • Mummified Mimic War Paint

    Assassin · Chance: 1.07%

  • Pumpkin Pied War Paint

    Assassin · Chance: 1.07%

Elite Grade
  • Spectrum Splattered War Paint

    Elite · Chance: 0.80%

War Paint and decorated-weapon quotes must match both quality and wear. This guide compares Factory New only; select Minimal Wear, Field-Tested, Well-Worn or Battle Scarred in the calculator. Steam pricing is temporarily paused. Backpack.tf wear-specific coverage is limited; missing quotes remain unavailable. A collection’s output wear follows that collection’s inputs, not another collection’s wear.

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Scream Fortress XII Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost1 key + 40.07 ref
Expected value39.26 ref
Expected P/L−1 key − 0.81 ref
ROI-62.4%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputGourdy Green War Paint10.44 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost54 keys + 61.48 ref
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputSpider Season War Paint5 keys + 31.88 ref each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Candy Coated War PaintSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Death Deluxe War PaintSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed11 keys + 34.00 refChecks when viewed
Eyestalker War PaintNo eligible sell listingChecks when viewedNo eligible sell listingChecks when viewed
Gourdy Green War Paint10.44 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Organ-ically Hellraised War Paint39.22 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Portal Plastered War Paint62.00 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Spider Season War Paint22.55 refChecks when viewed5 keys + 31.88 refChecks when viewed

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Crawlspace Critters War Paint25.0%32.77 refChecks when viewed9 keys + 18.00 refChecks when viewed
Raving Dead War Paint25.0%1 key + 22.22 refChecks when viewed23 keys + 15.22 refChecks when viewed
Spider's Cluster War Paint25.0%21.00 refChecks when viewed7 keys + 31.11 refChecks when viewed
Sweet Toothed War Paint25.0%16.72 refChecks when viewedBuy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed

Scream Fortress XII Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost24 keys + 13.78 ref
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputRaving Dead War Paint2 keys + 27.11 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost90 keys
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputSpider's Cluster War Paint9 keys each

Eligible Commando inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Crawlspace Critters War PaintNo eligible sell listingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Raving Dead War Paint2 keys + 27.11 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Spider's Cluster War PaintNo eligible sell listingChecks when viewed9 keysChecks when viewed
Sweet Toothed War PaintNo eligible sell listingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Helldriver War Paint33.3%Buy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewedBuy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed
Mummified Mimic War Paint33.3%Buy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed37 keys + 6.44 refChecks when viewed
Pumpkin Pied War Paint33.3%2 keys + 5.00 refChecks when viewedBuy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed

Scream Fortress XII Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost30 keys
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputPumpkin Pied War Paint3 keys each

Strange

strange
10× costIncomplete quotes
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputNo eligible quoteQuote unavailable each

Eligible Assassin inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Helldriver War PaintSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Mummified Mimic War PaintSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Pumpkin Pied War Paint3 keysChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Spectrum Splattered War Paint100.0%Buy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed305 keys + 0.22 refChecks when viewed

How to trade up to Scream Fortress XII Collection items

How to trade up to Crawlspace Critters War Paint

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Scream Fortress XII Collection for a 25.00% chance of Crawlspace Critters War Paint, one of 4 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Crawlspace Critters War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Raving Dead War Paint

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Scream Fortress XII Collection for a 25.00% chance of Raving Dead War Paint, one of 4 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Raving Dead War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Spider's Cluster War Paint

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Scream Fortress XII Collection for a 25.00% chance of Spider's Cluster War Paint, one of 4 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Spider's Cluster War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Sweet Toothed War Paint

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Scream Fortress XII Collection for a 25.00% chance of Sweet Toothed War Paint, one of 4 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Sweet Toothed War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Helldriver War Paint

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Scream Fortress XII Collection for a 33.33% chance of Helldriver War Paint, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Helldriver War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Mummified Mimic War Paint

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Scream Fortress XII Collection for a 33.33% chance of Mummified Mimic War Paint, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Mummified Mimic War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Pumpkin Pied War Paint

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Scream Fortress XII Collection for a 33.33% chance of Pumpkin Pied War Paint, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Pumpkin Pied War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Spectrum Splattered War Paint

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Scream Fortress XII Collection for a 100.00% chance of Spectrum Splattered War Paint, one of 1 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 50.00%. The ten-input single-collection recipe guarantees the item type, not its selling price or a profit; the mixed recipe does not guarantee the item.

Calculate Spectrum Splattered War Paint trade-up odds →

How Scream Fortress XII Collection odds work

With ten Scream Fortress XII Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

Explore related TF2 collections

Contract Campaigner CollectionContract Campaigner Collection items & trade-up odds →Decorated War Hero CollectionDecorated War Hero Collection items & trade-up odds →Infernal Reward War Paint CaseInfernal Reward Collection items & trade-up odds →Jungle Jackpot War Paint CaseJungle Jackpot Collection items & trade-up odds →
Browse every TF2 collection

Anonymous action totals help improve this site. No visitor IDs are attached to those totals. Privacy details