How are Scream Fortress XII Collection trade-up odds calculated?

In a single-collection contract, every recorded item at the next rarity has an equal chance. In a mixed contract, each input contributes ten percent probability to its collection, then that collection share is divided equally among its possible outputs.

Can Strange and non-Strange items be mixed in one TF2 trade-up?

No. A contract must use either all Strange inputs or all non-Strange inputs. This page displays both markets separately.

TF2 collection guide · Live calculator data

Scream Fortress XII Collection Trade-Up Guide

Scream Fortress XII Collection contains 15 War Paint designs across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade item is Spectrum Splattered War Paint. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

15Items

3Routes

CheckingPrice state

Data snapshot Tue, 08 Sep 2026 22:03:20 GMT

Container information · Series #129

Scream Fortress XII War Paint Case

Scream Fortress XII War Paint Case contains items from the Scream Fortress XII Collection. The case was introduced on 2020-10-03. Requires a Scream Fortress XII War Paint Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Scream Fortress XII Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary7 items

80.00%

Commando4 items

16.00%

Assassin3 items

3.20%

Elite1 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade

Candy Coated War Paint
Mercenary · Chance: 11.43%
Death Deluxe War Paint
Mercenary · Chance: 11.43%
Eyestalker War Paint
Mercenary · Chance: 11.43%
Gourdy Green War Paint
Mercenary · Chance: 11.43%
Organ-ically Hellraised War Paint
Mercenary · Chance: 11.43%
Portal Plastered War Paint
Mercenary · Chance: 11.43%
Spider Season War Paint
Mercenary · Chance: 11.43%

Commando Grade

Crawlspace Critters War Paint
Commando · Chance: 4.00%
Raving Dead War Paint
Commando · Chance: 4.00%
Spider's Cluster War Paint
Commando · Chance: 4.00%
Sweet Toothed War Paint
Commando · Chance: 4.00%

Assassin Grade

Helldriver War Paint
Assassin · Chance: 1.07%
Mummified Mimic War Paint
Assassin · Chance: 1.07%
Pumpkin Pied War Paint
Assassin · Chance: 1.07%

Elite Grade

Spectrum Splattered War Paint
Elite · Chance: 0.80%

War Paint and decorated-weapon quotes must match both quality and wear. This guide compares Factory New only; select Minimal Wear, Field-Tested, Well-Worn or Battle Scarred in the calculator. Steam USD is recommended because backpack.tf wear-specific coverage is limited. A collection’s output wear follows that collection’s inputs, not another collection’s wear.

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Scream Fortress XII Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost$3.00

Expected valueIncomplete quotes

Expected P/LIncomplete quotes

ROIIncomplete quotes

Win chanceIncomplete quotes

Cheapest quoted inputGourdy Green War Paint$0.30 each

Strange

strange

10× cost$52.10

Expected value$20.38

Expected P/L−$31.72

ROI-60.9%

Win chance0%

Cheapest quoted inputGourdy Green War Paint$5.21 each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Candy Coated War Paint	$0.48	$8.60
Death Deluxe War Paint	$1.62	$27.57
Eyestalker War Paint	$0.38	$7.07
Gourdy Green War Paint	$0.30	$5.21
Organ-ically Hellraised War Paint	No eligible quote	No eligible quote
Portal Plastered War Paint	No eligible quote	$32.54
Spider Season War Paint	$0.50	$10.01

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid
Crawlspace Critters War Paint	25.0%	$1.03	$16.20
Raving Dead War Paint	25.0%	$3.39	$43.19
Spider's Cluster War Paint	25.0%	$0.89	$15.48
Sweet Toothed War Paint	25.0%	No eligible quote	$6.65

Scream Fortress XII Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost$16.40

Expected value$8.87

Expected P/L−$7.53

ROI-45.9%

Win chance33%

Cheapest quoted inputCrawlspace Critters War Paint$1.64 each

Strange

strange

10× cost$119.60

Expected value$88.63

Expected P/L−$30.97

ROI-25.9%

Win chance33%

Cheapest quoted inputSweet Toothed War Paint$11.96 each

Eligible Commando inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Crawlspace Critters War Paint	$1.64	$29.98
Raving Dead War Paint	$5.26	$67.99
Spider's Cluster War Paint	$1.69	$23.50
Sweet Toothed War Paint	No eligible quote	$11.96

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid
Helldriver War Paint	33.3%	$18.56	$151.31
Mummified Mimic War Paint	33.3%	$3.79	$57.04
Pumpkin Pied War Paint	33.3%	$4.27	$57.54

Scream Fortress XII Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost$62.10

Expected value$43.92

Expected P/L−$18.18

ROI-29.3%

Win chance0%

Cheapest quoted inputPumpkin Pied War Paint$6.21 each

Strange

strange

10× cost$906.80

Expected value$468.48

Expected P/L−$438.32

ROI-48.3%

Win chance0%

Cheapest quoted inputPumpkin Pied War Paint$90.68 each

Eligible Assassin inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Helldriver War Paint	$27.61	$267.28
Mummified Mimic War Paint	$6.50	$115.00
Pumpkin Pied War Paint	$6.21	$90.68

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid	Markets
Spectrum Splattered War Paint	100.0%	$43.92	$468.48

How to trade up to Scream Fortress XII Collection items

How to trade up to Crawlspace Critters War Paint

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Scream Fortress XII Collection for a 25.00% chance of Crawlspace Critters War Paint, one of 4 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Crawlspace Critters War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Raving Dead War Paint

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Scream Fortress XII Collection for a 25.00% chance of Raving Dead War Paint, one of 4 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Raving Dead War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Spider's Cluster War Paint

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Scream Fortress XII Collection for a 25.00% chance of Spider's Cluster War Paint, one of 4 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Spider's Cluster War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Sweet Toothed War Paint

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Scream Fortress XII Collection for a 25.00% chance of Sweet Toothed War Paint, one of 4 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Sweet Toothed War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Helldriver War Paint

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Scream Fortress XII Collection for a 33.33% chance of Helldriver War Paint, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Helldriver War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Mummified Mimic War Paint

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Scream Fortress XII Collection for a 33.33% chance of Mummified Mimic War Paint, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Mummified Mimic War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Pumpkin Pied War Paint

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Scream Fortress XII Collection for a 33.33% chance of Pumpkin Pied War Paint, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Pumpkin Pied War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Spectrum Splattered War Paint

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Scream Fortress XII Collection for a 100.00% chance of Spectrum Splattered War Paint, one of 1 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 50.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Spectrum Splattered War Paint trade-up odds →

How Scream Fortress XII Collection odds work

With ten Scream Fortress XII Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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