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TF2 collection guide · Saved market observations

Summer 2021 Cosmetics Collection Trade-Up Guide

Summer 2021 Cosmetics Collection contains 18 items across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade item is Ballooniphones. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

18Items
3Routes
LoadingDataset state
Data snapshot . Loading the dataset does not recheck every listing; individual quotes can still be missing or stale.

Steam pricing is temporarily paused. Prices use backpack.tf only.

Summer 2021 Cosmetics Collection: choose your target tier

Start with the item you want, then choose the grade immediately below it. Summer 2021 Cosmetics Collection offers 3 adjacent-grade routes. Each row below assumes ten eligible inputs from this collection, with one result per contract; these are not case-opening probabilities.

10 Mercenary inputs → 1 Commando output

Choose among 9 input item names. Each of the 5 outputs has a 20.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 10.00% chance.

Commando targets

Compare Mercenary inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Commando inputs → 1 Assassin output

Choose among 5 input item names. Each of the 3 outputs has a 33.33% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 16.67% chance.

Assassin targets

Compare Commando inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Assassin inputs → 1 Elite output

Choose among 3 input item names. Each of the 1 outputs has a 100.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 50.00% chance.

Elite targets

Compare Assassin inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

Buying a higher-priced input in the same grade does not improve these single-collection odds. Price and quality still matter for cost: Strange and Non-Strange cannot be mixed. Read the odds guide or learn how expected profit differs from a guaranteed return.

Summer 2021 Cosmetic Case

Container information · Series #132

Summer 2021 Cosmetic Case

Summer 2021 Cosmetic Case contains items from the Summer 2021 Cosmetics Collection. The case was introduced on 2021-06-16. Requires a Summer 2021 Cosmetic Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Summer 2021 Cosmetics Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary9 items

80.00%

Commando5 items

16.00%

Assassin3 items

3.20%

Elite1 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade
  • Brim of Fire

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%

  • Fried Batter

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%

  • Hook, Line, and Cinder

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%

  • Manndatory Attire

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%

  • Reel Fly Hat

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%

  • Roaming Roman

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%

  • Thousand-Yard Stare

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%

  • Two Punch Mann

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%

  • Wild Brim Slouch

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%

Commando Grade
  • Crocodile Dandy

    Commando · Chance: 3.20%

  • Meal Dealer

    Commando · Chance: 3.20%

  • Snack Stack

    Commando · Chance: 3.20%

  • The Sightliner

    Commando · Chance: 3.20%

  • Water Waders

    Commando · Chance: 3.20%

Assassin Grade
  • Crustaceous Cowl

    Assassin · Chance: 1.07%

  • Fast Food

    Assassin · Chance: 1.07%

  • The Panisher

    Assassin · Chance: 1.07%

Elite Grade
  • Ballooniphones

    Elite · Chance: 0.80%

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Summer 2021 Cosmetics Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost28.80 ref
Expected value26.33 ref
Expected P/L−2.47 ref
ROI-8.6%
Win chance20%
Cheapest quoted inputTwo Punch Mann2.88 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost52.20 ref
Expected value52.33 ref
Expected P/L+0.13 ref
ROI0.2%
Win chance20%
Cheapest quoted inputFried Batter5.22 ref each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Brim of Fire4.27 refChecks when viewed13.22 refChecks when viewed
Fried BatterSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed5.22 refChecks when viewed
Hook, Line, and CinderSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed8.55 refChecks when viewed
Manndatory AttireSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed19.11 refChecks when viewed
Reel Fly HatSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed7.22 refChecks when viewed
Roaming Roman3.22 refChecks when viewed6.44 refChecks when viewed
Thousand-Yard Stare18.11 refChecks when viewed44.22 refChecks when viewed
Two Punch Mann2.88 refChecks when viewed5.33 refChecks when viewed
Wild Brim Slouch3.00 refChecks when viewed6.00 refChecks when viewed

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Crocodile Dandy20.0%6.00 refChecks when viewed19.33 refChecks when viewed
Meal Dealer20.0%11.66 refChecks when viewed27.33 refChecks when viewed
Snack Stack20.0%8.66 refChecks when viewed19.33 refChecks when viewed
The Sightliner20.0%19.11 refChecks when viewed39.88 refChecks when viewed
Water Waders20.0%1 key + 21.88 refChecks when viewed2 keys + 27.11 refChecks when viewed

Summer 2021 Cosmetics Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost61.10 ref
Expected value18.81 ref
Expected P/L−42.29 ref
ROI-69.2%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputCrocodile Dandy6.11 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost3 keys + 1.41 ref
Expected value63.81 ref
Expected P/L−2 keys − 1.93 ref
ROI-67.2%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputSnack Stack19.44 ref each

Eligible Commando inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Crocodile Dandy6.11 refChecks when viewed20.33 refChecks when viewed
Meal Dealer12.00 refChecks when viewed28.22 refChecks when viewed
Snack Stack8.88 refChecks when viewed19.44 refChecks when viewed
The Sightliner19.33 refChecks when viewed40.22 refChecks when viewed
Water Waders1 key + 25.44 refChecks when viewed2 keys + 28.44 refChecks when viewed

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Crustaceous Cowl33.3%21.88 refChecks when viewed1 key + 0.33 refChecks when viewed
Fast Food33.3%22.44 refChecks when viewed1 key + 7.22 refChecks when viewed
The Panisher33.3%12.11 refChecks when viewed55.22 refChecks when viewed

Summer 2021 Cosmetics Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost1 key + 57.87 ref
Expected value46.11 ref
Expected P/L−1 key − 11.76 ref
ROI-62.3%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputThe Panisher12.22 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost9 keys + 44.33 ref
Expected value2 keys + 6.77 ref
Expected P/L−7 keys − 37.56 ref
ROI-78.3%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputThe Panisher62.33 ref each

Eligible Assassin inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Crustaceous Cowl22.44 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Fast Food22.88 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
The Panisher12.22 refChecks when viewed62.33 refChecks when viewed

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Ballooniphones100.0%46.11 refChecks when viewed2 keys + 6.77 refChecks when viewed

How to trade up to Summer 2021 Cosmetics Collection items

How to trade up to Crocodile Dandy

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2021 Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of Crocodile Dandy, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Crocodile Dandy trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Meal Dealer

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2021 Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of Meal Dealer, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Meal Dealer trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Snack Stack

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2021 Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of Snack Stack, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Snack Stack trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Sightliner

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2021 Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of The Sightliner, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Sightliner trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Water Waders

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2021 Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of Water Waders, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Water Waders trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Crustaceous Cowl

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Summer 2021 Cosmetics Collection for a 33.33% chance of Crustaceous Cowl, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Crustaceous Cowl trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Fast Food

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Summer 2021 Cosmetics Collection for a 33.33% chance of Fast Food, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Fast Food trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Panisher

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Summer 2021 Cosmetics Collection for a 33.33% chance of The Panisher, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Panisher trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Ballooniphones

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Summer 2021 Cosmetics Collection for a 100.00% chance of Ballooniphones, one of 1 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 50.00%. The ten-input single-collection recipe guarantees the item type, not its selling price or a profit; the mixed recipe does not guarantee the item.

Calculate Ballooniphones trade-up odds →

How Summer 2021 Cosmetics Collection odds work

With ten Summer 2021 Cosmetics Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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