How are Summer 2021 Cosmetics Collection trade-up odds calculated?

In a single-collection contract, every recorded item at the next rarity has an equal chance. In a mixed contract, each input contributes ten percent probability to its collection, then that collection share is divided equally among its possible outputs.

Can Strange and non-Strange items be mixed in one TF2 trade-up?

No. A contract must use either all Strange inputs or all non-Strange inputs. This page displays both markets separately.

TF2 collection guide · Live calculator data

Summer 2021 Cosmetics Collection Trade-Up Guide

Summer 2021 Cosmetics Collection contains 18 items across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade item is Ballooniphones. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

18Items

3Routes

CheckingPrice state

Data snapshot Tue, 08 Sep 2026 22:02:47 GMT

Container information · Series #132

Summer 2021 Cosmetic Case

Summer 2021 Cosmetic Case contains items from the Summer 2021 Cosmetics Collection. The case was introduced on 2021-06-16. Requires a Summer 2021 Cosmetic Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Summer 2021 Cosmetics Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary9 items

80.00%

Commando5 items

16.00%

Assassin3 items

3.20%

Elite1 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade

Brim of Fire
Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%
Fried Batter
Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%
Hook, Line, and Cinder
Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%
Manndatory Attire
Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%
Reel Fly Hat
Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%
Roaming Roman
Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%
Thousand-Yard Stare
Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%
Two Punch Mann
Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%
Wild Brim Slouch
Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%

Commando Grade

Crocodile Dandy
Commando · Chance: 3.20%
Meal Dealer
Commando · Chance: 3.20%
Snack Stack
Commando · Chance: 3.20%
The Sightliner
Commando · Chance: 3.20%
Water Waders
Commando · Chance: 3.20%

Assassin Grade

Crustaceous Cowl
Assassin · Chance: 1.07%
Fast Food
Assassin · Chance: 1.07%
The Panisher
Assassin · Chance: 1.07%

Elite Grade

Ballooniphones
Elite · Chance: 0.80%

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Summer 2021 Cosmetics Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost31.10 ref

Expected value28.93 ref

Expected P/L−2.17 ref

ROI-7.0%

Win chance20%

Cheapest quoted inputTwo Punch Mann3.11 ref each

Strange

strange

10× cost52.20 ref

Expected value48.39 ref

Expected P/L−3.81 ref

ROI-7.3%

Win chance20%

Cheapest quoted inputWild Brim Slouch5.22 ref each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Brim of Fire	4.22 ref	12.55 ref
Fried Batter	3.66 ref	6.11 ref
Hook, Line, and Cinder	3.55 ref	8.77 ref
Manndatory Attire	4.88 ref	18.22 ref
Reel Fly Hat	3.55 ref	7.33 ref
Roaming Roman	3.11 ref	6.33 ref
Thousand-Yard Stare	18.22 ref	43.11 ref
Two Punch Mann	3.11 ref	5.66 ref
Wild Brim Slouch	3.11 ref	5.22 ref

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid
Crocodile Dandy	20.0%	6.66 ref	18.88 ref
Meal Dealer	20.0%	13.00 ref	24.66 ref
Snack Stack	20.0%	8.22 ref	20.11 ref
The Sightliner	20.0%	20.11 ref	41.11 ref
Water Waders	20.0%	1 key + 32.33 ref	2 keys + 8.55 ref

Summer 2021 Cosmetics Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost1 key + 3.37 ref

Expected value17.62 ref

Expected P/L−50.08 ref

ROI-74.0%

Win chance0%

Cheapest quoted inputCrocodile Dandy6.77 ref each

Strange

strange

10× cost2 keys + 61.34 ref

Expected value1 key + 2.22 ref

Expected P/L−1 key − 59.12 ref

ROI-65.0%

Win chance0%

Cheapest quoted inputCrocodile Dandy19.00 ref each

Eligible Commando inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Crocodile Dandy	6.77 ref	19.00 ref
Meal Dealer	13.88 ref	25.11 ref
Snack Stack	8.11 ref	22.44 ref
The Sightliner	20.11 ref	No eligible quote
Water Waders	1 key + 32.44 ref	2 keys + 12.55 ref

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid
Crustaceous Cowl	33.3%	20.77 ref	1 key + 0.55 ref
Fast Food	33.3%	22.33 ref	1 key + 14.66 ref
The Panisher	33.3%	9.77 ref	55.77 ref

Summer 2021 Cosmetics Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost3 keys + 14.71 ref

Expected value46.66 ref

Expected P/L−2 keys − 32.38 ref

ROI-77.5%

Win chance0%

Cheapest quoted inputCrustaceous Cowl20.77 ref each

Strange

strange

10× cost9 keys + 7.63 ref

Expected value2 keys + 7.77 ref

Expected P/L−6 keys − 64.19 ref

ROI-76.7%

Win chance0%

Cheapest quoted inputThe Panisher58.66 ref each

Eligible Assassin inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Crustaceous Cowl	20.77 ref	1 key + 7.22 ref
Fast Food	23.22 ref	No eligible quote
The Panisher	No eligible quote	58.66 ref

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid	Markets
Ballooniphones	100.0%	46.66 ref	2 keys + 7.77 ref

How to trade up to Summer 2021 Cosmetics Collection items

How to trade up to Crocodile Dandy

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2021 Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of Crocodile Dandy, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Crocodile Dandy trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Meal Dealer

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2021 Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of Meal Dealer, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Meal Dealer trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Snack Stack

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2021 Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of Snack Stack, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Snack Stack trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Sightliner

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2021 Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of The Sightliner, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Sightliner trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Water Waders

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2021 Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of Water Waders, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Water Waders trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Crustaceous Cowl

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Summer 2021 Cosmetics Collection for a 33.33% chance of Crustaceous Cowl, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Crustaceous Cowl trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Fast Food

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Summer 2021 Cosmetics Collection for a 33.33% chance of Fast Food, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Fast Food trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Panisher

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Summer 2021 Cosmetics Collection for a 33.33% chance of The Panisher, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Panisher trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Ballooniphones

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Summer 2021 Cosmetics Collection for a 100.00% chance of Ballooniphones, one of 1 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 50.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Ballooniphones trade-up odds →

How Summer 2021 Cosmetics Collection odds work

With ten Summer 2021 Cosmetics Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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