How are Scream Fortress X Collection trade-up odds calculated?

In a single-collection contract, every recorded item at the next rarity has an equal chance. In a mixed contract, each input contributes ten percent probability to its collection, then that collection share is divided equally among its possible outputs.

Can Strange and non-Strange items be mixed in one TF2 trade-up?

No. A contract must use either all Strange inputs or all non-Strange inputs. This page displays both markets separately.

TF2 collection guide · Live calculator data

Scream Fortress X Collection Trade-Up Guide

Scream Fortress X Collection contains 10 War Paint designs across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade item is Electroshocked War Paint. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

10Items

3Routes

CheckingPrice state

Data snapshot Tue, 08 Sep 2026 22:02:47 GMT

Container information · Series #121

Scream Fortress X War Paint Case

Scream Fortress X War Paint Case contains items from the Scream Fortress X Collection. The case was introduced on 2018-10-17. Requires a Scream Fortress X War Paint Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Scream Fortress X Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary4 items

80.00%

Commando3 items

16.00%

Assassin2 items

3.20%

Elite1 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade

Haunted Ghosts War Paint
Mercenary · Chance: 20.00%
Horror Holiday War Paint
Mercenary · Chance: 20.00%
Spirit of Halloween War Paint
Mercenary · Chance: 20.00%
Totally Boned War Paint
Mercenary · Chance: 20.00%

Commando Grade

Calavera Canvas War Paint
Commando · Chance: 5.33%
Skull Study War Paint
Commando · Chance: 5.33%
Spectral Shimmered War Paint
Commando · Chance: 5.33%

Assassin Grade

Ghost Town War Paint
Assassin · Chance: 1.60%
Tumor Toasted War Paint
Assassin · Chance: 1.60%

Elite Grade

Electroshocked War Paint
Elite · Chance: 0.80%

War Paint and decorated-weapon quotes must match both quality and wear. This guide compares Factory New only; select Minimal Wear, Field-Tested, Well-Worn or Battle Scarred in the calculator. Steam USD is recommended because backpack.tf wear-specific coverage is limited. A collection’s output wear follows that collection’s inputs, not another collection’s wear.

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Scream Fortress X Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost$6.10

Expected value$2.14

Expected P/L−$3.96

ROI-64.9%

Win chance0%

Cheapest quoted inputSpirit of Halloween War Paint$0.61 each

Strange

strange

10× cost$199.50

Expected value$25.68

Expected P/L−$173.82

ROI-87.1%

Win chance0%

Cheapest quoted inputSpirit of Halloween War Paint$19.95 each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Haunted Ghosts War Paint	No eligible quote	No eligible quote
Horror Holiday War Paint	No eligible quote	No eligible quote
Spirit of Halloween War Paint	$0.61	$19.95
Totally Boned War Paint	$0.66	$22.45

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid
Calavera Canvas War Paint	33.3%	$0.90	$15.39
Skull Study War Paint	33.3%	$2.59	$25.75
Spectral Shimmered War Paint	33.3%	$2.93	$35.91

Scream Fortress X Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost$19.00

Expected value$10.96

Expected P/L−$8.04

ROI-42.3%

Win chance0%

Cheapest quoted inputCalavera Canvas War Paint$1.90 each

Strange

strange

10× cost$256.70

Expected valueIncomplete quotes

Expected P/LIncomplete quotes

ROIIncomplete quotes

Win chanceIncomplete quotes

Cheapest quoted inputCalavera Canvas War Paint$25.67 each

Eligible Commando inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Calavera Canvas War Paint	$1.90	$25.67
Skull Study War Paint	$3.49	$69.00
Spectral Shimmered War Paint	$5.00	$90.90

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid	Markets
Ghost Town War Paint	50.0%	$13.56	No eligible quote
Tumor Toasted War Paint	50.0%	$8.36	No eligible quote

Scream Fortress X Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost$132.20

Expected valueIncomplete quotes

Expected P/LIncomplete quotes

ROIIncomplete quotes

Win chanceIncomplete quotes

Cheapest quoted inputTumor Toasted War Paint$13.22 each

Strange

strange

10× costIncomplete quotes

Expected valueIncomplete quotes

Expected P/LIncomplete quotes

ROIIncomplete quotes

Win chanceIncomplete quotes

Cheapest quoted inputNo eligible quoteQuote unavailable each

Eligible Assassin inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask	Markets
Ghost Town War Paint	$19.63	No eligible quote
Tumor Toasted War Paint	$13.22	No eligible quote

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid	Markets
Electroshocked War Paint	100.0%	No eligible quote	No eligible quote

How to trade up to Scream Fortress X Collection items

How to trade up to Calavera Canvas War Paint

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Scream Fortress X Collection for a 33.33% chance of Calavera Canvas War Paint, one of 3 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Calavera Canvas War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Skull Study War Paint

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Scream Fortress X Collection for a 33.33% chance of Skull Study War Paint, one of 3 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Skull Study War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Spectral Shimmered War Paint

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Scream Fortress X Collection for a 33.33% chance of Spectral Shimmered War Paint, one of 3 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Spectral Shimmered War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Ghost Town War Paint

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Scream Fortress X Collection for a 50.00% chance of Ghost Town War Paint, one of 2 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Ghost Town War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Tumor Toasted War Paint

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Scream Fortress X Collection for a 50.00% chance of Tumor Toasted War Paint, one of 2 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Tumor Toasted War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Electroshocked War Paint

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Scream Fortress X Collection for a 100.00% chance of Electroshocked War Paint, one of 1 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 50.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Electroshocked War Paint trade-up odds →

How Scream Fortress X Collection odds work

With ten Scream Fortress X Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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