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TF2 collection guide · Saved market observations

Scream Fortress X Collection Trade-Up Guide

Scream Fortress X Collection contains 10 War Paint designs across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade item is Electroshocked War Paint. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

10Items
3Routes
LoadingDataset state
Data snapshot . Loading the dataset does not recheck every listing; individual quotes can still be missing or stale.

Steam pricing is temporarily paused. Prices use backpack.tf only.

Scream Fortress X Collection: choose your target tier

Start with the item you want, then choose the grade immediately below it. Scream Fortress X Collection offers 3 adjacent-grade routes. Each row below assumes ten eligible inputs from this collection, with one result per contract; these are not case-opening probabilities.

10 Mercenary inputs → 1 Commando output

Choose among 4 input item names. Each of the 3 outputs has a 33.33% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 16.67% chance.

Commando targets

Compare Mercenary inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Commando inputs → 1 Assassin output

Choose among 3 input item names. Each of the 2 outputs has a 50.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 25.00% chance.

Assassin targets

Compare Commando inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Assassin inputs → 1 Elite output

Choose among 2 input item names. Each of the 1 outputs has a 100.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 50.00% chance.

Elite targets

Compare Assassin inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

Buying a higher-priced input in the same grade does not improve these single-collection odds. Price and quality still matter for cost: Strange and Non-Strange cannot be mixed, and this guide’s market comparison uses Factory New wear. Read the odds guide or learn how expected profit differs from a guaranteed return.

Scream Fortress X War Paint Case

Container information · Series #121

Scream Fortress X War Paint Case

Scream Fortress X War Paint Case contains items from the Scream Fortress X Collection. The case was introduced on 2018-10-17. Requires a Scream Fortress X War Paint Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Scream Fortress X Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary4 items

80.00%

Commando3 items

16.00%

Assassin2 items

3.20%

Elite1 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade
  • Haunted Ghosts War Paint

    Mercenary · Chance: 20.00%

  • Horror Holiday War Paint

    Mercenary · Chance: 20.00%

  • Spirit of Halloween War Paint

    Mercenary · Chance: 20.00%

  • Totally Boned War Paint

    Mercenary · Chance: 20.00%

Commando Grade
  • Calavera Canvas War Paint

    Commando · Chance: 5.33%

  • Skull Study War Paint

    Commando · Chance: 5.33%

  • Spectral Shimmered War Paint

    Commando · Chance: 5.33%

Assassin Grade
  • Ghost Town War Paint

    Assassin · Chance: 1.60%

  • Tumor Toasted War Paint

    Assassin · Chance: 1.60%

Elite Grade
  • Electroshocked War Paint

    Elite · Chance: 0.80%

War Paint and decorated-weapon quotes must match both quality and wear. This guide compares Factory New only; select Minimal Wear, Field-Tested, Well-Worn or Battle Scarred in the calculator. Steam pricing is temporarily paused. Backpack.tf wear-specific coverage is limited; missing quotes remain unavailable. A collection’s output wear follows that collection’s inputs, not another collection’s wear.

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Scream Fortress X Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost3 keys + 11.41 ref
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputHorror Holiday War Paint20.44 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost60 keys + 38.80 ref
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputSpirit of Halloween War Paint6 keys + 3.88 ref each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Haunted Ghosts War PaintNo eligible sell listingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Horror Holiday War Paint20.44 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Spirit of Halloween War PaintNo eligible sell listingChecks when viewed6 keys + 3.88 refChecks when viewed
Totally Boned War PaintSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Calavera Canvas War Paint33.3%Buy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed5 keys + 49.38 refChecks when viewed
Skull Study War Paint33.3%Buy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewedBuy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed
Spectral Shimmered War Paint33.3%Buy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewedBuy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed

Scream Fortress X Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× costIncomplete quotes
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputNo eligible quoteQuote unavailable each

Strange

strange
10× costIncomplete quotes
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputNo eligible quoteQuote unavailable each

Eligible Commando inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Calavera Canvas War PaintSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Skull Study War PaintSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Spectral Shimmered War PaintSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Ghost Town War Paint50.0%Buy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewedBuy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed
Tumor Toasted War Paint50.0%Buy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed29 keys + 0.33 refChecks when viewed

Scream Fortress X Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× costIncomplete quotes
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputNo eligible quoteQuote unavailable each

Strange

strange
10× costIncomplete quotes
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputNo eligible quoteQuote unavailable each

Eligible Assassin inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Ghost Town War PaintSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Tumor Toasted War PaintSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Electroshocked War Paint100.0%Buy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed190 keys + 2.22 refChecks when viewed

How to trade up to Scream Fortress X Collection items

How to trade up to Calavera Canvas War Paint

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Scream Fortress X Collection for a 33.33% chance of Calavera Canvas War Paint, one of 3 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Calavera Canvas War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Skull Study War Paint

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Scream Fortress X Collection for a 33.33% chance of Skull Study War Paint, one of 3 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Skull Study War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Spectral Shimmered War Paint

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Scream Fortress X Collection for a 33.33% chance of Spectral Shimmered War Paint, one of 3 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Spectral Shimmered War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Ghost Town War Paint

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Scream Fortress X Collection for a 50.00% chance of Ghost Town War Paint, one of 2 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Ghost Town War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Tumor Toasted War Paint

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Scream Fortress X Collection for a 50.00% chance of Tumor Toasted War Paint, one of 2 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Tumor Toasted War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Electroshocked War Paint

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Scream Fortress X Collection for a 100.00% chance of Electroshocked War Paint, one of 1 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 50.00%. The ten-input single-collection recipe guarantees the item type, not its selling price or a profit; the mixed recipe does not guarantee the item.

Calculate Electroshocked War Paint trade-up odds →

How Scream Fortress X Collection odds work

With ten Scream Fortress X Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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