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TF2 collection guide · Saved market observations

Winter 2023 Cosmetics Collection Trade-Up Guide

Winter 2023 Cosmetics Collection contains 23 items across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade items include Boarder's Beanie, Scruffed 'n Stitched. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

23Items
3Routes
LoadingDataset state
Data snapshot . Loading the dataset does not recheck every listing; individual quotes can still be missing or stale.

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Winter 2023 Cosmetics Collection: choose your target tier

Start with the item you want, then choose the grade immediately below it. Winter 2023 Cosmetics Collection offers 3 adjacent-grade routes. Each row below assumes ten eligible inputs from this collection, with one result per contract; these are not case-opening probabilities.

10 Mercenary inputs → 1 Commando output

Choose among 10 input item names. Each of the 7 outputs has a 14.29% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 7.14% chance.

Commando targets

Compare Mercenary inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Commando inputs → 1 Assassin output

Choose among 7 input item names. Each of the 4 outputs has a 25.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 12.50% chance.

Assassin targets

Compare Commando inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Assassin inputs → 1 Elite output

Choose among 4 input item names. Each of the 2 outputs has a 50.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 25.00% chance.

Elite targets

Compare Assassin inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

Buying a higher-priced input in the same grade does not improve these single-collection odds. Price and quality still matter for cost: Strange and Non-Strange cannot be mixed. Read the odds guide or learn how expected profit differs from a guaranteed return.

Winter 2023 Cosmetic Case

Container information · Series #143

Winter 2023 Cosmetic Case

Winter 2023 Cosmetic Case contains items from the Winter 2023 Cosmetics Collection. The case was introduced on 2023-12-04. Requires a Winter 2023 Cosmetic Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Winter 2023 Cosmetics Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary10 items

80.00%

Commando7 items

16.00%

Assassin4 items

3.20%

Elite2 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade
  • Balkan's Brute

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Bigger Mann on Campus

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Cozy Cover-Up

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Impact Impaler

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Nightcap

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Rugged Rags

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Sleuth Suit

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • The Covert Covers

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • The Puffed Practitioner

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Wanderer's Wool

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

Commando Grade
  • Clue Hairdo

    Commando · Chance: 2.29%

  • Isotopic Insulator

    Commando · Chance: 2.29%

  • Slumber Slacks

    Commando · Chance: 2.29%

  • Strasbourg Scholar

    Commando · Chance: 2.29%

  • The Frigid Fashion

    Commando · Chance: 2.29%

  • Torcher's Trench Coat

    Commando · Chance: 2.29%

  • Trench Warfarer

    Commando · Chance: 2.29%

Assassin Grade
  • Bonk Beanie

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

  • Lazy Lounger

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

  • Masked Loyalty

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

  • The Dapper Dickens

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

Elite Grade
  • Boarder's Beanie

    Elite · Chance: 0.40%

  • Scruffed 'n Stitched

    Elite · Chance: 0.40%

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Winter 2023 Cosmetics Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost34.40 ref
Expected value37.61 ref
Expected P/L+3.21 ref
ROI9.3%
Win chance29%
Cheapest quoted inputRugged Rags3.44 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost1 key + 13.37 ref
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputBalkan's Brute7.77 ref each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Balkan's Brute3.55 refChecks when viewed7.77 refChecks when viewed
Bigger Mann on Campus3.88 refChecks when viewed9.00 refChecks when viewed
Cozy Cover-Up7.55 refChecks when viewed25.44 refChecks when viewed
Impact Impaler5.77 refChecks when viewed11.22 refChecks when viewed
Nightcap4.11 refChecks when viewed8.44 refChecks when viewed
Rugged Rags3.44 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Sleuth Suit21.11 refChecks when viewed49.00 refChecks when viewed
The Covert Covers5.11 refChecks when viewed10.66 refChecks when viewed
The Puffed Practitioner13.22 refChecks when viewed32.55 refChecks when viewed
Wanderer's Wool3.55 refChecks when viewed8.66 refChecks when viewed

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Clue Hairdo14.3%28.22 refChecks when viewed61.22 refChecks when viewed
Isotopic Insulator14.3%18.77 refChecks when viewed54.66 refChecks when viewed
Slumber Slacks14.3%24.66 refChecks when viewed48.66 refChecks when viewed
Strasbourg Scholar14.3%11.00 refChecks when viewed38.11 refChecks when viewed
The Frigid Fashion14.3%6.44 refChecks when viewedBuy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed
Torcher's Trench Coat14.3%2 keys + 7.55 refChecks when viewed4 keys + 35.11 refChecks when viewed
Trench Warfarer14.3%38.00 refChecks when viewed1 key + 60.44 refChecks when viewed

Winter 2023 Cosmetics Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost1 key + 2.27 ref
Expected value1 key + 9.24 ref
Expected P/L+6.97 ref
ROI10.5%
Win chance25%
Cheapest quoted inputThe Frigid Fashion6.66 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost3 keys + 13.61 ref
Expected value2 keys + 59.88 ref
Expected P/L−18.06 ref
ROI-8.7%
Win chance25%
Cheapest quoted inputThe Frigid Fashion20.66 ref each

Eligible Commando inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Clue Hairdo28.33 refChecks when viewed63.66 refChecks when viewed
Isotopic Insulator18.77 refChecks when viewed56.11 refChecks when viewed
Slumber Slacks25.00 refChecks when viewed49.00 refChecks when viewed
Strasbourg Scholar11.11 refChecks when viewed38.44 refChecks when viewed
The Frigid Fashion6.66 refChecks when viewed20.66 refChecks when viewed
Torcher's Trench Coat2 keys + 9.44 refChecks when viewed6 keys + 17.50 refChecks when viewed
Trench Warfarer38.11 refChecks when viewed2 keys + 27.00 refChecks when viewed

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Bonk Beanie25.0%23.77 refChecks when viewed1 key + 14.11 refChecks when viewed
Lazy Lounger25.0%40.11 refChecks when viewed1 key + 39.77 refChecks when viewed
Masked Loyalty25.0%3 keys + 8.66 refChecks when viewed7 keys + 23.88 refChecks when viewed
The Dapper Dickens25.0%28.77 refChecks when viewed1 key + 33.11 refChecks when viewed

Winter 2023 Cosmetics Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost3 keys + 45.81 ref
Expected value2 keys + 24.55 ref
Expected P/L−1 key − 21.26 ref
ROI-35.8%
Win chance50%
Cheapest quoted inputBonk Beanie23.88 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost13 keys + 22.51 ref
Expected value5 keys + 24.44 ref
Expected P/L−7 keys − 62.40 ref
ROI-59.7%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputBonk Beanie1 key + 21.55 ref each

Eligible Assassin inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Bonk Beanie23.88 refChecks when viewed1 key + 21.55 refChecks when viewed
Lazy Lounger40.44 refChecks when viewed1 key + 48.11 refChecks when viewed
Masked Loyalty3 keys + 13.66 refChecks when viewed7 keys + 35.77 refChecks when viewed
The Dapper Dickens29.22 refChecks when viewed1 key + 35.00 refChecks when viewed

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Boarder's Beanie50.0%1 key + 2.33 refChecks when viewed4 keys + 19.11 refChecks when viewed
Scruffed 'n Stitched50.0%3 keys + 46.77 refChecks when viewed6 keys + 29.77 refChecks when viewed

How to trade up to Winter 2023 Cosmetics Collection items

How to trade up to Clue Hairdo

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2023 Cosmetics Collection for a 14.29% chance of Clue Hairdo, one of 7 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 7.14%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Clue Hairdo trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Isotopic Insulator

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2023 Cosmetics Collection for a 14.29% chance of Isotopic Insulator, one of 7 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 7.14%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Isotopic Insulator trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Slumber Slacks

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2023 Cosmetics Collection for a 14.29% chance of Slumber Slacks, one of 7 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 7.14%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Slumber Slacks trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Strasbourg Scholar

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2023 Cosmetics Collection for a 14.29% chance of Strasbourg Scholar, one of 7 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 7.14%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Strasbourg Scholar trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Frigid Fashion

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2023 Cosmetics Collection for a 14.29% chance of The Frigid Fashion, one of 7 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 7.14%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Frigid Fashion trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Torcher's Trench Coat

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2023 Cosmetics Collection for a 14.29% chance of Torcher's Trench Coat, one of 7 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 7.14%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Torcher's Trench Coat trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Trench Warfarer

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2023 Cosmetics Collection for a 14.29% chance of Trench Warfarer, one of 7 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 7.14%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Trench Warfarer trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Bonk Beanie

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Winter 2023 Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of Bonk Beanie, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Bonk Beanie trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Lazy Lounger

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Winter 2023 Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of Lazy Lounger, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Lazy Lounger trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Masked Loyalty

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Winter 2023 Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of Masked Loyalty, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Masked Loyalty trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Dapper Dickens

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Winter 2023 Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of The Dapper Dickens, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Dapper Dickens trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Boarder's Beanie

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Winter 2023 Cosmetics Collection for a 50.00% chance of Boarder's Beanie, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Boarder's Beanie trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Scruffed 'n Stitched

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Winter 2023 Cosmetics Collection for a 50.00% chance of Scruffed 'n Stitched, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Scruffed 'n Stitched trade-up odds →

How Winter 2023 Cosmetics Collection odds work

With ten Winter 2023 Cosmetics Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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