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TF2 collection guide · Saved market observations

Warbird Collection Trade-Up Guide

Warbird Collection contains 18 decorated weapons across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade items include Killer Bee Scattergun, Warhawk Rocket Launcher. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

18Items
3Routes
LoadingDataset state
Data snapshot . Loading the dataset does not recheck every listing; individual quotes can still be missing or stale.

Steam pricing is temporarily paused. Prices use backpack.tf only.

Warbird Collection: choose your target tier

Start with the item you want, then choose the grade immediately below it. Warbird Collection offers 3 adjacent-grade routes. Each row below assumes ten eligible inputs from this collection, with one result per contract; these are not case-opening probabilities.

10 Mercenary inputs → 1 Commando output

Choose among 8 input item names. Each of the 5 outputs has a 20.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 10.00% chance.

Commando targets

Compare Mercenary inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Commando inputs → 1 Assassin output

Choose among 5 input item names. Each of the 3 outputs has a 33.33% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 16.67% chance.

Assassin targets

Compare Commando inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Assassin inputs → 1 Elite output

Choose among 3 input item names. Each of the 2 outputs has a 50.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 25.00% chance.

Elite targets

Compare Assassin inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

Buying a higher-priced input in the same grade does not improve these single-collection odds. Price and quality still matter for cost: Strange and Non-Strange cannot be mixed, and this guide’s market comparison uses Factory New wear. Read the odds guide or learn how expected profit differs from a guaranteed return.

Warbird Weapons Case

Container information · Series #100

Warbird Weapons Case

Warbird Weapons Case contains items from the Warbird Collection. The case was introduced on 2015-12-13. Requires a Tough Break Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Warbird Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary8 items

80.00%

Commando5 items

16.00%

Assassin3 items

3.20%

Elite2 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade
  • Airwolf Wrench

    Mercenary · Chance: 10.00%

  • Blitzkrieg Knife

    Mercenary · Chance: 10.00%

  • Blitzkrieg Medi Gun

    Mercenary · Chance: 10.00%

  • Blitzkrieg Pistol

    Mercenary · Chance: 10.00%

  • Blitzkrieg Revolver

    Mercenary · Chance: 10.00%

  • Blitzkrieg SMG

    Mercenary · Chance: 10.00%

  • Butcher Bird Grenade Launcher

    Mercenary · Chance: 10.00%

  • Corsair Scattergun

    Mercenary · Chance: 10.00%

Commando Grade
  • Airwolf Knife

    Commando · Chance: 3.20%

  • Airwolf Sniper Rifle

    Commando · Chance: 3.20%

  • Blitzkrieg Stickybomb Launcher

    Commando · Chance: 3.20%

  • Butcher Bird Minigun

    Commando · Chance: 3.20%

  • Corsair Medi Gun

    Commando · Chance: 3.20%

Assassin Grade
  • Red Bear Shotgun

    Assassin · Chance: 1.07%

  • Warhawk Flame Thrower

    Assassin · Chance: 1.07%

  • Warhawk Grenade Launcher

    Assassin · Chance: 1.07%

Elite Grade
  • Killer Bee Scattergun

    Elite · Chance: 0.40%

  • Warhawk Rocket Launcher

    Elite · Chance: 0.40%

War Paint and decorated-weapon quotes must match both quality and wear. This guide compares Factory New only; select Minimal Wear, Field-Tested, Well-Worn or Battle Scarred in the calculator. Steam pricing is temporarily paused. Backpack.tf wear-specific coverage is limited; missing quotes remain unavailable. A collection’s output wear follows that collection’s inputs, not another collection’s wear.

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Warbird Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost4 keys + 2.68 ref
Expected value1 key + 14.53 ref
Expected P/L−2 keys − 52.48 ref
ROI-69.7%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputBlitzkrieg SMG26.00 ref each

Strange

strange
10× costIncomplete quotes
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputNo eligible quoteQuote unavailable each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Airwolf WrenchNo eligible sell listingChecks when viewedNo eligible sell listingChecks when viewed
Blitzkrieg KnifeNo eligible sell listingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Blitzkrieg Medi GunNo eligible sell listingChecks when viewedNo eligible sell listingChecks when viewed
Blitzkrieg PistolNo eligible sell listingChecks when viewedNo eligible sell listingChecks when viewed
Blitzkrieg RevolverSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Blitzkrieg SMG26.00 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Butcher Bird Grenade LauncherNo eligible sell listingChecks when viewedNo eligible sell listingChecks when viewed
Corsair Scattergun2 keys + 28.22 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Airwolf Knife20.0%1 key + 11.11 refChecks when viewedBuy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed
Airwolf Sniper Rifle20.0%1 key + 20.00 refChecks when viewedBuy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed
Blitzkrieg Stickybomb Launcher20.0%1 key + 1.00 refChecks when viewedBuy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed
Butcher Bird Minigun20.0%1 key + 25.00 refChecks when viewed77 keysChecks when viewed
Corsair Medi Gun20.0%1 key + 15.55 refChecks when viewed50 keys + 0.22 refChecks when viewed

Warbird Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost30 keys
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputCorsair Medi Gun3 keys each

Strange

strange
10× costIncomplete quotes
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputNo eligible quoteQuote unavailable each

Eligible Commando inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Airwolf KnifeNo eligible sell listingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Airwolf Sniper RifleNo eligible sell listingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Blitzkrieg Stickybomb LauncherNo eligible sell listingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Butcher Bird MinigunNo eligible sell listingChecks when viewedNo eligible sell listingChecks when viewed
Corsair Medi Gun3 keysChecks when viewedNo eligible sell listingChecks when viewed

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Red Bear Shotgun33.3%14 keys + 5.22 refChecks when viewedBuy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed
Warhawk Flame Thrower33.3%Buy order scan pendingChecks when viewedBuy order scan pendingChecks when viewed
Warhawk Grenade Launcher33.3%Buy order scan pendingChecks when viewedBuy order scan pendingChecks when viewed

Warbird Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× costIncomplete quotes
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputNo eligible quoteQuote unavailable each

Strange

strange
10× costIncomplete quotes
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputNo eligible quoteQuote unavailable each

Eligible Assassin inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Red Bear ShotgunNo eligible sell listingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Warhawk Flame ThrowerSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Warhawk Grenade LauncherSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Killer Bee Scattergun50.0%Buy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewedBuy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed
Warhawk Rocket Launcher50.0%Buy order scan pendingChecks when viewedBuy order scan pendingChecks when viewed

How to trade up to Warbird Collection items

How to trade up to Airwolf Knife

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Warbird Collection for a 20.00% chance of Airwolf Knife, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Airwolf Knife trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Airwolf Sniper Rifle

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Warbird Collection for a 20.00% chance of Airwolf Sniper Rifle, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Airwolf Sniper Rifle trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Blitzkrieg Stickybomb Launcher

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Warbird Collection for a 20.00% chance of Blitzkrieg Stickybomb Launcher, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Blitzkrieg Stickybomb Launcher trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Butcher Bird Minigun

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Warbird Collection for a 20.00% chance of Butcher Bird Minigun, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Butcher Bird Minigun trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Corsair Medi Gun

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Warbird Collection for a 20.00% chance of Corsair Medi Gun, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Corsair Medi Gun trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Red Bear Shotgun

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Warbird Collection for a 33.33% chance of Red Bear Shotgun, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Red Bear Shotgun trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Warhawk Flame Thrower

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Warbird Collection for a 33.33% chance of Warhawk Flame Thrower, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Warhawk Flame Thrower trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Warhawk Grenade Launcher

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Warbird Collection for a 33.33% chance of Warhawk Grenade Launcher, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Warhawk Grenade Launcher trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Killer Bee Scattergun

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Warbird Collection for a 50.00% chance of Killer Bee Scattergun, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Killer Bee Scattergun trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Warhawk Rocket Launcher

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Warbird Collection for a 50.00% chance of Warhawk Rocket Launcher, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Warhawk Rocket Launcher trade-up odds →

How Warbird Collection odds work

With ten Warbird Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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