How are Warbird Collection trade-up odds calculated?

In a single-collection contract, every recorded item at the next rarity has an equal chance. In a mixed contract, each input contributes ten percent probability to its collection, then that collection share is divided equally among its possible outputs.

Can Strange and non-Strange items be mixed in one TF2 trade-up?

No. A contract must use either all Strange inputs or all non-Strange inputs. This page displays both markets separately.

TF2 collection guide · Live calculator data

Warbird Collection Trade-Up Guide

Warbird Collection contains 18 decorated weapons across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade items include Killer Bee Scattergun, Warhawk Rocket Launcher. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

18Items

3Routes

CheckingPrice state

Data snapshot Tue, 08 Sep 2026 21:58:40 GMT

Container information · Series #100

Warbird Weapons Case

Warbird Weapons Case contains items from the Warbird Collection. The case was introduced on 2015-12-13. Requires a Tough Break Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Warbird Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary8 items

80.00%

Commando5 items

16.00%

Assassin3 items

3.20%

Elite2 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade

Airwolf Wrench
Mercenary · Chance: 10.00%
Blitzkrieg Knife
Mercenary · Chance: 10.00%
Blitzkrieg Medi Gun
Mercenary · Chance: 10.00%
Blitzkrieg Pistol
Mercenary · Chance: 10.00%
Blitzkrieg Revolver
Mercenary · Chance: 10.00%
Blitzkrieg SMG
Mercenary · Chance: 10.00%
Butcher Bird Grenade Launcher
Mercenary · Chance: 10.00%
Corsair Scattergun
Mercenary · Chance: 10.00%

Commando Grade

Airwolf Knife
Commando · Chance: 3.20%
Airwolf Sniper Rifle
Commando · Chance: 3.20%
Blitzkrieg Stickybomb Launcher
Commando · Chance: 3.20%
Butcher Bird Minigun
Commando · Chance: 3.20%
Corsair Medi Gun
Commando · Chance: 3.20%

Assassin Grade

Red Bear Shotgun
Assassin · Chance: 1.07%
Warhawk Flame Thrower
Assassin · Chance: 1.07%
Warhawk Grenade Launcher
Assassin · Chance: 1.07%

Elite Grade

Killer Bee Scattergun
Elite · Chance: 0.40%
Warhawk Rocket Launcher
Elite · Chance: 0.40%

War Paint and decorated-weapon quotes must match both quality and wear. This guide compares Factory New only; select Minimal Wear, Field-Tested, Well-Worn or Battle Scarred in the calculator. Steam USD is recommended because backpack.tf wear-specific coverage is limited. A collection’s output wear follows that collection’s inputs, not another collection’s wear.

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Warbird Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost$4.90

Expected value$2.46

Expected P/L−$2.44

ROI-49.8%

Win chance0%

Cheapest quoted inputBlitzkrieg Revolver$0.49 each

Strange

strange

10× cost$260.00

Expected valueIncomplete quotes

Expected P/LIncomplete quotes

ROIIncomplete quotes

Win chanceIncomplete quotes

Cheapest quoted inputBlitzkrieg Revolver$26.00 each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Airwolf Wrench	No eligible quote	No eligible quote
Blitzkrieg Knife	No eligible quote	No eligible quote
Blitzkrieg Medi Gun	$0.83	$34.99
Blitzkrieg Pistol	$1.20	$28.40
Blitzkrieg Revolver	$0.49	$26.00
Blitzkrieg SMG	$0.77	$43.21
Butcher Bird Grenade Launcher	$2.01	No eligible quote
Corsair Scattergun	$4.29	No eligible quote

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid
Airwolf Knife	20.0%	$2.98	$50.23
Airwolf Sniper Rifle	20.0%	$3.71	No eligible quote
Blitzkrieg Stickybomb Launcher	20.0%	$2.46	No eligible quote
Butcher Bird Minigun	20.0%	$2.43	No eligible quote
Corsair Medi Gun	20.0%	$0.72	No eligible quote

Warbird Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost$41.10

Expected valueIncomplete quotes

Expected P/LIncomplete quotes

ROIIncomplete quotes

Win chanceIncomplete quotes

Cheapest quoted inputAirwolf Knife$4.11 each

Strange

strange

10× cost$1462.90

Expected valueIncomplete quotes

Expected P/LIncomplete quotes

ROIIncomplete quotes

Win chanceIncomplete quotes

Cheapest quoted inputAirwolf Knife$146.29 each

Eligible Commando inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Airwolf Knife	$4.11	$146.29
Airwolf Sniper Rifle	$10.87	No eligible quote
Blitzkrieg Stickybomb Launcher	$4.15	No eligible quote
Butcher Bird Minigun	$5.99	No eligible quote
Corsair Medi Gun	$7.22	No eligible quote

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid
Red Bear Shotgun	33.3%	$20.45	No eligible quote
Warhawk Flame Thrower	33.3%	No eligible quote	No eligible quote
Warhawk Grenade Launcher	33.3%	No eligible quote	No eligible quote

Warbird Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost$350.00

Expected valueIncomplete quotes

Expected P/LIncomplete quotes

ROIIncomplete quotes

Win chanceIncomplete quotes

Cheapest quoted inputRed Bear Shotgun$35.00 each

Strange

strange

10× costIncomplete quotes

Expected valueIncomplete quotes

Expected P/LIncomplete quotes

ROIIncomplete quotes

Win chanceIncomplete quotes

Cheapest quoted inputNo eligible quoteQuote unavailable each

Eligible Assassin inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Red Bear Shotgun	$35.00	No eligible quote
Warhawk Flame Thrower	No eligible quote	No eligible quote
Warhawk Grenade Launcher	No eligible quote	No eligible quote

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid	Markets
Killer Bee Scattergun	50.0%	$146.83	No eligible quote
Warhawk Rocket Launcher	50.0%	No eligible quote	No eligible quote

How to trade up to Warbird Collection items

How to trade up to Airwolf Knife

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Warbird Collection for a 20.00% chance of Airwolf Knife, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Airwolf Knife trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Airwolf Sniper Rifle

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Warbird Collection for a 20.00% chance of Airwolf Sniper Rifle, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Airwolf Sniper Rifle trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Blitzkrieg Stickybomb Launcher

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Warbird Collection for a 20.00% chance of Blitzkrieg Stickybomb Launcher, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Blitzkrieg Stickybomb Launcher trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Butcher Bird Minigun

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Warbird Collection for a 20.00% chance of Butcher Bird Minigun, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Butcher Bird Minigun trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Corsair Medi Gun

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Warbird Collection for a 20.00% chance of Corsair Medi Gun, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Corsair Medi Gun trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Red Bear Shotgun

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Warbird Collection for a 33.33% chance of Red Bear Shotgun, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Red Bear Shotgun trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Warhawk Flame Thrower

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Warbird Collection for a 33.33% chance of Warhawk Flame Thrower, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Warhawk Flame Thrower trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Warhawk Grenade Launcher

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Warbird Collection for a 33.33% chance of Warhawk Grenade Launcher, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Warhawk Grenade Launcher trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Killer Bee Scattergun

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Warbird Collection for a 50.00% chance of Killer Bee Scattergun, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Killer Bee Scattergun trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Warhawk Rocket Launcher

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Warbird Collection for a 50.00% chance of Warhawk Rocket Launcher, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Warhawk Rocket Launcher trade-up odds →

How Warbird Collection odds work

With ten Warbird Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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