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TF2 collection guide · Saved market observations

Winter 2024 Cosmetics Collection Trade-Up Guide

Winter 2024 Cosmetics Collection contains 23 items across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade item is The Necroprancer. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

23Items
3Routes
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Winter 2024 Cosmetics Collection: choose your target tier

Start with the item you want, then choose the grade immediately below it. Winter 2024 Cosmetics Collection offers 3 adjacent-grade routes. Each row below assumes ten eligible inputs from this collection, with one result per contract; these are not case-opening probabilities.

10 Mercenary inputs → 1 Commando output

Choose among 10 input item names. Each of the 8 outputs has a 12.50% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 6.25% chance.

Commando targets

Compare Mercenary inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Commando inputs → 1 Assassin output

Choose among 8 input item names. Each of the 4 outputs has a 25.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 12.50% chance.

Assassin targets

Compare Commando inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Assassin inputs → 1 Elite output

Choose among 4 input item names. Each of the 1 outputs has a 100.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 50.00% chance.

Elite targets

Compare Assassin inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

Buying a higher-priced input in the same grade does not improve these single-collection odds. Price and quality still matter for cost: Strange and Non-Strange cannot be mixed. Read the odds guide or learn how expected profit differs from a guaranteed return.

Winter 2024 Cosmetic Case

Container information · Series #147

Winter 2024 Cosmetic Case

Winter 2024 Cosmetic Case contains items from the Winter 2024 Cosmetics Collection. The case was introduced on 2024-12-04. Requires a Winter 2024 Cosmetic Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Winter 2024 Cosmetics Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary10 items

80.00%

Commando8 items

16.00%

Assassin4 items

3.20%

Elite1 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade
  • Commanding Presence

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Consigliere's Coverup

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Dapper Noel

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Field Fatigues

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Hot Spaniel

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Poleur Voyeur

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Snug Sharpshooter

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • The Battle Music

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • The Crimbo Cap

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • The Westcoat

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

Commando Grade
  • Buck's Brim

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

  • Cossack Camo

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

  • Frostbite Fit

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

  • Le Frosteaux

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

  • Mine Sweepers

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

  • Polar Charger

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

  • The Checkered Past

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

  • The Triple Jumper

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

Assassin Grade
  • Battle Balaclava

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

  • L'aire Filteure

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

  • Scrooge McDoc

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

  • The Top Brass

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

Elite Grade
  • The Necroprancer

    Elite · Chance: 0.80%

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Winter 2024 Cosmetics Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost28.80 ref
Expected value23.48 ref
Expected P/L−5.32 ref
ROI-18.5%
Win chance13%
Cheapest quoted inputThe Crimbo Cap2.88 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost61.10 ref
Expected value55.77 ref
Expected P/L−5.33 ref
ROI-8.7%
Win chance38%
Cheapest quoted inputThe Battle Music6.11 ref each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Commanding Presence9.11 refChecks when viewed29.22 refChecks when viewed
Consigliere's Coverup11.66 refChecks when viewed26.88 refChecks when viewed
Dapper Noel5.66 refChecks when viewed10.66 refChecks when viewed
Field Fatigues26.77 refChecks when viewed60.33 refChecks when viewed
Hot Spaniel3.16 refChecks when viewed8.33 refChecks when viewed
Poleur VoyeurSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed18.66 refChecks when viewed
Snug Sharpshooter3.83 refChecks when viewed7.55 refChecks when viewed
The Battle Music3.11 refChecks when viewed6.11 refChecks when viewed
The Crimbo Cap2.88 refChecks when viewed6.16 refChecks when viewed
The Westcoat4.11 refChecks when viewed8.66 refChecks when viewed

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Buck's Brim12.5%18.44 refChecks when viewed46.55 refChecks when viewed
Cossack Camo12.5%25.66 refChecks when viewed1 key + 2.33 refChecks when viewed
Frostbite Fit12.5%19.00 refChecks when viewed37.44 refChecks when viewed
Le Frosteaux12.5%46.44 refChecks when viewed1 key + 11.22 refChecks when viewed
Mine Sweepers12.5%18.33 refChecks when viewed40.88 refChecks when viewed
Polar Charger12.5%22.77 refChecks when viewed47.33 refChecks when viewed
The Checkered Past12.5%16.00 refChecks when viewed36.55 refChecks when viewed
The Triple Jumper12.5%21.22 refChecks when viewed1 key + 30.88 refChecks when viewed

Winter 2024 Cosmetics Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost2 keys + 37.94 ref
Expected value2 keys + 32.45 ref
Expected P/L−5.49 ref
ROI-3.3%
Win chance25%
Cheapest quoted inputThe Checkered Past16.66 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost6 keys + 17.32 ref
Expected value4 keys + 57.13 ref
Expected P/L−1 key − 24.52 ref
ROI-22.0%
Win chance25%
Cheapest quoted inputThe Checkered Past40.33 ref each

Eligible Commando inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Buck's Brim19.88 refChecks when viewed48.00 refChecks when viewed
Cossack Camo25.77 refChecks when viewed1 key + 3.44 refChecks when viewed
Frostbite Fit20.00 refChecks when viewed43.33 refChecks when viewed
Le Frosteaux47.33 refChecks when viewed1 key + 11.44 refChecks when viewed
Mine Sweepers18.44 refChecks when viewed49.66 refChecks when viewed
Polar Charger22.77 refChecks when viewed47.44 refChecks when viewed
The Checkered Past16.66 refChecks when viewed40.33 refChecks when viewed
The Triple Jumper21.55 refChecks when viewed1 key + 33.33 refChecks when viewed

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Battle Balaclava25.0%9 keys + 6.27 refChecks when viewed16 keys + 47.22 refChecks when viewed
L'aire Filteure25.0%33.77 refChecks when viewed1 key + 16.88 refChecks when viewed
Scrooge McDoc25.0%14.11 refChecks when viewed50.55 refChecks when viewed
The Top Brass25.0%11.33 refChecks when viewed49.55 refChecks when viewed

Winter 2024 Cosmetics Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost1 key + 53.37 ref
Expected value34.44 ref
Expected P/L−1 key − 18.93 ref
ROI-70.7%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputThe Top Brass11.77 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost7 keys + 55.19 ref
Expected value2 keys + 35.22 ref
Expected P/L−5 keys − 19.97 ref
ROI-67.6%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputThe Top Brass50.55 ref each

Eligible Assassin inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Battle Balaclava9 keys + 26.66 refChecks when viewed20 keys + 16.44 refChecks when viewed
L'aire Filteure36.88 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Scrooge McDoc14.38 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
The Top Brass11.77 refChecks when viewed50.55 refChecks when viewed

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
The Necroprancer100.0%34.44 refChecks when viewed2 keys + 35.22 refChecks when viewed

How to trade up to Winter 2024 Cosmetics Collection items

How to trade up to Buck's Brim

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2024 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Buck's Brim, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Buck's Brim trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Cossack Camo

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2024 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Cossack Camo, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Cossack Camo trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Frostbite Fit

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2024 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Frostbite Fit, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Frostbite Fit trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Le Frosteaux

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2024 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Le Frosteaux, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Le Frosteaux trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Mine Sweepers

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2024 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Mine Sweepers, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Mine Sweepers trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Polar Charger

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2024 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Polar Charger, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Polar Charger trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Checkered Past

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2024 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of The Checkered Past, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Checkered Past trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Triple Jumper

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2024 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of The Triple Jumper, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Triple Jumper trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Battle Balaclava

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Winter 2024 Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of Battle Balaclava, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Battle Balaclava trade-up odds →

How to trade up to L'aire Filteure

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Winter 2024 Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of L'aire Filteure, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate L'aire Filteure trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Scrooge McDoc

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Winter 2024 Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of Scrooge McDoc, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Scrooge McDoc trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Top Brass

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Winter 2024 Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of The Top Brass, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Top Brass trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Necroprancer

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Winter 2024 Cosmetics Collection for a 100.00% chance of The Necroprancer, one of 1 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 50.00%. The ten-input single-collection recipe guarantees the item type, not its selling price or a profit; the mixed recipe does not guarantee the item.

Calculate The Necroprancer trade-up odds →

How Winter 2024 Cosmetics Collection odds work

With ten Winter 2024 Cosmetics Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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