T2TF2TradeUps.comOpen calculator

TF2 collection guide · Live calculator data

Winter 2024 Cosmetics Collection Trade-Up Guide

Winter 2024 Cosmetics Collection contains 23 items across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade item is The Necroprancer. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

23Items
3Routes
CheckingPrice state
Data snapshot
Winter 2024 Cosmetic Case

Container information · Series #147

Winter 2024 Cosmetic Case

Winter 2024 Cosmetic Case contains items from the Winter 2024 Cosmetics Collection. The case was introduced on 2024-12-04. Requires a Winter 2024 Cosmetic Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Winter 2024 Cosmetics Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary10 items

80.00%

Commando8 items

16.00%

Assassin4 items

3.20%

Elite1 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade
  • Commanding Presence

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Consigliere's Coverup

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Dapper Noel

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Field Fatigues

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Hot Spaniel

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Poleur Voyeur

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Snug Sharpshooter

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • The Battle Music

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • The Crimbo Cap

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • The Westcoat

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

Commando Grade
  • Buck's Brim

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

  • Cossack Camo

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

  • Frostbite Fit

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

  • Le Frosteaux

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

  • Mine Sweepers

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

  • Polar Charger

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

  • The Checkered Past

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

  • The Triple Jumper

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

Assassin Grade
  • Battle Balaclava

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

  • L'aire Filteure

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

  • Scrooge McDoc

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

  • The Top Brass

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

Elite Grade
  • The Necroprancer

    Elite · Chance: 0.80%

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Winter 2024 Cosmetics Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost31.10 ref
Expected value25.16 ref
Expected P/L−5.94 ref
ROI-19.1%
Win chance13%
Cheapest quoted inputThe Crimbo Cap3.11 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost37.70 ref
Expected value52.26 ref
Expected P/L+14.56 ref
ROI38.6%
Win chance63%
Cheapest quoted inputThe Crimbo Cap3.77 ref each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Commanding Presence13.66 ref26.66 ref
Consigliere's Coverup12.33 ref26.33 ref
Dapper Noel3.88 ref8.88 ref
Field Fatigues29.55 ref1 key + 5.88 ref
Hot Spaniel3.22 ref11.33 ref
Poleur Voyeur8.00 ref17.44 ref
Snug Sharpshooter3.55 ref10.22 ref
The Battle Music3.88 ref8.22 ref
The Crimbo Cap3.11 ref3.77 ref
The Westcoat4.33 ref9.77 ref

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Buck's Brim12.5%22.11 ref42.44 ref
Cossack Camo12.5%24.55 ref1 key + 2.77 ref
Frostbite Fit12.5%19.33 ref37.00 ref
Le Frosteaux12.5%49.11 ref1 key + 13.55 ref
Mine Sweepers12.5%19.44 ref37.22 ref
Polar Charger12.5%28.11 ref47.00 ref
The Checkered Past12.5%14.88 ref34.88 ref
The Triple Jumper12.5%23.77 ref1 key + 10.22 ref

Winter 2024 Cosmetics Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost3 keys + 0.31 ref
Expected value2 keys + 50.19 ref
Expected P/L−14.45 ref
ROI-7.5%
Win chance25%
Cheapest quoted inputThe Checkered Past19.33 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost6 keys + 62.82 ref
Expected value4 keys + 49.58 ref
Expected P/L−2 keys − 13.24 ref
ROI-31.6%
Win chance25%
Cheapest quoted inputMine Sweepers44.88 ref each

Eligible Commando inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Buck's Brim22.88 ref48.00 ref
Cossack Camo24.88 ref1 key + 2.66 ref
Frostbite FitNo eligible quoteNo eligible quote
Le Frosteaux55.77 ref1 key + 18.88 ref
Mine Sweepers20.44 ref44.88 ref
Polar Charger29.11 ref47.00 ref
The Checkered Past19.33 ref56.11 ref
The Triple Jumper27.22 ref1 key + 15.11 ref

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Battle Balaclava25.0%10 keys + 7.55 ref16 keys + 14.22 ref
L'aire Filteure25.0%37.11 ref1 key + 24.55 ref
Scrooge McDoc25.0%13.33 ref44.77 ref
The Top Brass25.0%14.11 ref50.44 ref

Winter 2024 Cosmetics Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost2 keys + 5.74 ref
Expected value34.66 ref
Expected P/L−1 key − 35.41 ref
ROI-74.2%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputScrooge McDoc13.44 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost7 keys + 38.49 ref
Expected value2 keys + 10.11 ref
Expected P/L−5 keys − 28.38 ref
ROI-71.6%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputScrooge McDoc48.88 ref each

Eligible Assassin inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Battle Balaclava10 keys + 44.00 ref17 keys + 0.22 ref
L'aire Filteure35.11 ref1 key + 26.33 ref
Scrooge McDoc13.44 ref48.88 ref
The Top Brass14.66 ref51.55 ref

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
The Necroprancer100.0%34.66 ref2 keys + 10.11 ref

How to trade up to Winter 2024 Cosmetics Collection items

How to trade up to Buck's Brim

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2024 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Buck's Brim, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Buck's Brim trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Cossack Camo

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2024 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Cossack Camo, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Cossack Camo trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Frostbite Fit

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2024 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Frostbite Fit, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Frostbite Fit trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Le Frosteaux

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2024 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Le Frosteaux, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Le Frosteaux trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Mine Sweepers

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2024 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Mine Sweepers, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Mine Sweepers trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Polar Charger

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2024 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Polar Charger, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Polar Charger trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Checkered Past

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2024 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of The Checkered Past, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Checkered Past trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Triple Jumper

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2024 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of The Triple Jumper, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Triple Jumper trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Battle Balaclava

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Winter 2024 Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of Battle Balaclava, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Battle Balaclava trade-up odds →

How to trade up to L'aire Filteure

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Winter 2024 Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of L'aire Filteure, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate L'aire Filteure trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Scrooge McDoc

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Winter 2024 Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of Scrooge McDoc, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Scrooge McDoc trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Top Brass

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Winter 2024 Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of The Top Brass, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Top Brass trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Necroprancer

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Winter 2024 Cosmetics Collection for a 100.00% chance of The Necroprancer, one of 1 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 50.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Necroprancer trade-up odds →

How Winter 2024 Cosmetics Collection odds work

With ten Winter 2024 Cosmetics Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

Explore related TF2 collections

Abominable Cosmetic CaseAbominable Cosmetic Collection items & trade-up odds →Blue Moon Cosmetic CaseBlue Moon Cosmetics Collection items & trade-up odds →Bone-Chilling Bonanza CaseBone-Chilling Bonanza Collection items & trade-up odds →Confidential Collection CaseConfidential Collection items & trade-up odds →
Browse every TF2 collection