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TF2 collection guide · Saved market observations

Summer 2024 Cosmetics Collection Trade-Up Guide

Summer 2024 Cosmetics Collection contains 23 items across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade items include Botler 2000, Hazardous Environment Vest. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

23Items
3Routes
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Summer 2024 Cosmetics Collection: choose your target tier

Start with the item you want, then choose the grade immediately below it. Summer 2024 Cosmetics Collection offers 3 adjacent-grade routes. Each row below assumes ten eligible inputs from this collection, with one result per contract; these are not case-opening probabilities.

10 Mercenary inputs → 1 Commando output

Choose among 10 input item names. Each of the 7 outputs has a 14.29% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 7.14% chance.

Commando targets

Compare Mercenary inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Commando inputs → 1 Assassin output

Choose among 7 input item names. Each of the 4 outputs has a 25.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 12.50% chance.

Assassin targets

Compare Commando inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Assassin inputs → 1 Elite output

Choose among 4 input item names. Each of the 2 outputs has a 50.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 25.00% chance.

Elite targets

Compare Assassin inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

Buying a higher-priced input in the same grade does not improve these single-collection odds. Price and quality still matter for cost: Strange and Non-Strange cannot be mixed. Read the odds guide or learn how expected profit differs from a guaranteed return.

Summer 2024 Cosmetic Case

Container information · Series #144

Summer 2024 Cosmetic Case

Summer 2024 Cosmetic Case contains items from the Summer 2024 Cosmetics Collection. The case was introduced on 2024-07-17. Requires a Summer 2024 Cosmetic Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Summer 2024 Cosmetics Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary10 items

80.00%

Commando7 items

16.00%

Assassin4 items

3.20%

Elite2 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade
  • Brute's Braces

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Commonwealth Commando

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Daring Dell

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Desk Engineer

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Invisible Flame

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Pathfinder

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • The Aimframe

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • The Brand Loyalist

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • The Vaudeville Visor

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Watchmann's Wetsuit

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

Commando Grade
  • Crook's Cap

    Commando · Chance: 2.29%

  • Justice Johns

    Commando · Chance: 2.29%

  • Scorched Earth Stompers

    Commando · Chance: 2.29%

  • Sneaky Blinder

    Commando · Chance: 2.29%

  • Tanker's Top

    Commando · Chance: 2.29%

  • The Big Star

    Commando · Chance: 2.29%

  • The Tropical Brim

    Commando · Chance: 2.29%

Assassin Grade
  • Control Patrol

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

  • Fire Marshal

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

  • Free Mann's Fashion

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

  • Tuxedo Royale

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

Elite Grade
  • Botler 2000

    Elite · Chance: 0.40%

  • Hazardous Environment Vest

    Elite · Chance: 0.40%

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Summer 2024 Cosmetics Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost30.00 ref
Expected value22.53 ref
Expected P/L−7.47 ref
ROI-24.9%
Win chance14%
Cheapest quoted inputThe Brand Loyalist3.00 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost48.80 ref
Expected value48.07 ref
Expected P/L−0.73 ref
ROI-1.5%
Win chance14%
Cheapest quoted inputDaring Dell4.88 ref each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Brute's Braces6.66 refChecks when viewed15.27 refChecks when viewed
Commonwealth Commando4.33 refChecks when viewed7.77 refChecks when viewed
Daring Dell3.00 refChecks when viewed4.88 refChecks when viewed
Desk Engineer6.11 refChecks when viewed15.00 refChecks when viewed
Invisible Flame9.27 refChecks when viewed17.55 refChecks when viewed
Pathfinder14.44 refChecks when viewed33.22 refChecks when viewed
The Aimframe3.11 refChecks when viewed5.55 refChecks when viewed
The Brand Loyalist3.00 refChecks when viewed6.00 refChecks when viewed
The Vaudeville Visor4.33 refChecks when viewed22.55 refChecks when viewed
Watchmann's Wetsuit5.38 refChecks when viewed13.77 refChecks when viewed

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Crook's Cap14.3%9.44 refChecks when viewed30.22 refChecks when viewed
Justice Johns14.3%21.44 refChecks when viewed47.22 refChecks when viewed
Scorched Earth Stompers14.3%1 key + 15.44 refChecks when viewed2 keys + 9.11 refChecks when viewed
Sneaky Blinder14.3%13.77 refChecks when viewed28.88 refChecks when viewed
Tanker's Top14.3%16.11 refChecks when viewed35.00 refChecks when viewed
The Big Star14.3%8.33 refChecks when viewed28.55 refChecks when viewed
The Tropical Brim14.3%8.88 refChecks when viewed28.88 refChecks when viewed

Summer 2024 Cosmetics Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost1 key + 26.77 ref
Expected value1 key + 39.63 ref
Expected P/L+12.86 ref
ROI14.1%
Win chance50%
Cheapest quoted inputThe Big Star9.11 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost4 keys + 41.48 ref
Expected value4 keys + 40.22 ref
Expected P/L−1.26 ref
ROI-0.4%
Win chance50%
Cheapest quoted inputThe Tropical Brim29.88 ref each

Eligible Commando inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Crook's Cap10.00 refChecks when viewed35.55 refChecks when viewed
Justice Johns21.44 refChecks when viewed47.55 refChecks when viewed
Scorched Earth Stompers1 key + 23.77 refChecks when viewed2 keys + 9.22 refChecks when viewed
Sneaky Blinder13.77 refChecks when viewed31.44 refChecks when viewed
Tanker's Top17.22 refChecks when viewed35.22 refChecks when viewed
The Big Star9.11 refChecks when viewed30.11 refChecks when viewed
The Tropical Brim10.33 refChecks when viewed29.88 refChecks when viewed

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Control Patrol25.0%35.55 refChecks when viewed2 keys + 2.22 refChecks when viewed
Fire Marshal25.0%36.11 refChecks when viewed2 keys + 0.66 refChecks when viewed
Free Mann's Fashion25.0%3 keys + 6.44 refChecks when viewed8 keys + 30.55 refChecks when viewed
Tuxedo Royale25.0%2 keys + 16.11 refChecks when viewed5 keys + 63.11 refChecks when viewed

Summer 2024 Cosmetics Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost5 keys + 41.65 ref
Expected value5 keys + 29.22 ref
Expected P/L−12.43 ref
ROI-3.4%
Win chance50%
Cheapest quoted inputControl Patrol36.33 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost26 keys + 16.22 ref
Expected value20 keys + 9.61 ref
Expected P/L−6 keys − 6.61 ref
ROI-23.2%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputControl Patrol2 keys + 40.22 ref each

Eligible Assassin inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Control Patrol36.33 refChecks when viewed2 keys + 40.22 refChecks when viewed
Fire Marshal37.22 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Free Mann's Fashion3 keys + 8.44 refChecks when viewed10 keysChecks when viewed
Tuxedo RoyaleSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Botler 200050.0%2 keys + 52.66 refChecks when viewed21 keys + 27.55 refChecks when viewed
Hazardous Environment Vest50.0%8 keys + 5.77 refChecks when viewed18 keys + 56.00 refChecks when viewed

How to trade up to Summer 2024 Cosmetics Collection items

How to trade up to Crook's Cap

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2024 Cosmetics Collection for a 14.29% chance of Crook's Cap, one of 7 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 7.14%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Crook's Cap trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Justice Johns

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2024 Cosmetics Collection for a 14.29% chance of Justice Johns, one of 7 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 7.14%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Justice Johns trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Scorched Earth Stompers

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2024 Cosmetics Collection for a 14.29% chance of Scorched Earth Stompers, one of 7 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 7.14%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Scorched Earth Stompers trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Sneaky Blinder

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2024 Cosmetics Collection for a 14.29% chance of Sneaky Blinder, one of 7 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 7.14%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Sneaky Blinder trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Tanker's Top

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2024 Cosmetics Collection for a 14.29% chance of Tanker's Top, one of 7 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 7.14%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Tanker's Top trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Big Star

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2024 Cosmetics Collection for a 14.29% chance of The Big Star, one of 7 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 7.14%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Big Star trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Tropical Brim

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2024 Cosmetics Collection for a 14.29% chance of The Tropical Brim, one of 7 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 7.14%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Tropical Brim trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Control Patrol

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Summer 2024 Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of Control Patrol, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Control Patrol trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Fire Marshal

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Summer 2024 Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of Fire Marshal, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Fire Marshal trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Free Mann's Fashion

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Summer 2024 Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of Free Mann's Fashion, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Free Mann's Fashion trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Tuxedo Royale

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Summer 2024 Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of Tuxedo Royale, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Tuxedo Royale trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Botler 2000

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Summer 2024 Cosmetics Collection for a 50.00% chance of Botler 2000, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Botler 2000 trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Hazardous Environment Vest

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Summer 2024 Cosmetics Collection for a 50.00% chance of Hazardous Environment Vest, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Hazardous Environment Vest trade-up odds →

How Summer 2024 Cosmetics Collection odds work

With ten Summer 2024 Cosmetics Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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