How are Summer 2026 Cosmetics Collection trade-up odds calculated?

In a single-collection contract, every recorded item at the next rarity has an equal chance. In a mixed contract, each input contributes ten percent probability to its collection, then that collection share is divided equally among its possible outputs.

Can Strange and non-Strange items be mixed in one TF2 trade-up?

No. A contract must use either all Strange inputs or all non-Strange inputs. This page displays both markets separately.

TF2 collection guide · Live calculator data

Summer 2026 Cosmetics Collection Trade-Up Guide

Summer 2026 Cosmetics Collection contains 24 items across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade items include Hard Hearing, Pyro's Overalls. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

24Items

3Routes

CheckingPrice state

Data snapshot Tue, 08 Sep 2026 22:02:47 GMT

Container information · Series #151

Summer 2026 Cosmetic Case

Summer 2026 Cosmetic Case contains items from the Summer 2026 Cosmetics Collection. The case was introduced on 2026-06-26. Requires a Summer 2026 Cosmetic Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Summer 2026 Cosmetics Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary10 items

80.00%

Commando8 items

16.00%

Assassin4 items

3.20%

Elite2 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade

Bald Spotter
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
Barbeque Bacon Britches
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
Inglorious Patriot
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
The Deadliest Match
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
The Long Shot
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
The Night Riders
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
The Unknown Warrior
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
Tropical Torcher
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
Unruly Ruler
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%
Vested Investor's Vest
Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

Commando Grade

Atomic Bomber
Commando · Chance: 2.00%
Bomb Blanket
Commando · Chance: 2.00%
Delusions of Grandeur
Commando · Chance: 2.00%
Lieutenant's Cut
Commando · Chance: 2.00%
Standing Offer
Commando · Chance: 2.00%
Surgical Shroud
Commando · Chance: 2.00%
The Handsome Ranger
Commando · Chance: 2.00%
Tsar Athlete
Commando · Chance: 2.00%

Assassin Grade

Beachcomber's Brim
Assassin · Chance: 0.80%
Bonk! Atomic Kicks
Assassin · Chance: 0.80%
Chief Executor
Assassin · Chance: 0.80%
Deadwave Communicator
Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

Elite Grade

Hard Hearing
Elite · Chance: 0.40%
Pyro's Overalls
Elite · Chance: 0.40%

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Summer 2026 Cosmetics Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost31.10 ref

Expected valueIncomplete quotes

Expected P/LIncomplete quotes

ROIIncomplete quotes

Win chanceIncomplete quotes

Cheapest quoted inputVested Investor's Vest3.11 ref each

Strange

strange

10× cost50.50 ref

Expected valueIncomplete quotes

Expected P/LIncomplete quotes

ROIIncomplete quotes

Win chanceIncomplete quotes

Cheapest quoted inputVested Investor's Vest5.05 ref each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Bald Spotter	3.11 ref	5.66 ref
Barbeque Bacon Britches	No eligible quote	20.44 ref
Inglorious Patriot	10.22 ref	No eligible quote
The Deadliest Match	4.00 ref	11.00 ref
The Long Shot	3.11 ref	No eligible quote
The Night Riders	3.11 ref	27.77 ref
The Unknown Warrior	11.00 ref	No eligible quote
Tropical Torcher	3.61 ref	14.33 ref
Unruly Ruler	3.33 ref	6.00 ref
Vested Investor's Vest	3.11 ref	5.05 ref

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid
Atomic Bomber	12.5%	27.11 ref	1 key + 16.00 ref
Bomb Blanket	12.5%	28.44 ref	47.55 ref
Delusions of Grandeur	12.5%	4.33 ref	10.33 ref
Lieutenant's Cut	12.5%	17.77 ref	36.22 ref
Standing Offer	12.5%	18.66 ref	31.00 ref
Surgical Shroud	12.5%	3.77 ref	42.00 ref
The Handsome Ranger	12.5%	4.00 ref	15.55 ref
Tsar Athlete	12.5%	No eligible quote	No eligible quote

Summer 2026 Cosmetics Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost51.10 ref

Expected value32.47 ref

Expected P/L−18.63 ref

ROI-36.5%

Win chance0%

Cheapest quoted inputDelusions of Grandeur5.11 ref each

Strange

strange

10× cost2 keys + 50.14 ref

Expected value1 key + 47.91 ref

Expected P/L−1 key − 2.23 ref

ROI-37.2%

Win chance25%

Cheapest quoted inputDelusions of Grandeur17.88 ref each

Eligible Commando inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Atomic Bomber	No eligible quote	3 keys
Bomb Blanket	30.11 ref	3 keys
Delusions of Grandeur	5.11 ref	17.88 ref
Lieutenant's Cut	25.66 ref	1 key + 47.16 ref
Standing Offer	32.44 ref	No eligible quote
Surgical Shroud	24.66 ref	1 key + 25.22 ref
The Handsome Ranger	8.00 ref	19.00 ref
Tsar Athlete	57.55 ref	2 keys + 57.88 ref

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid
Beachcomber's Brim	25.0%	29.88 ref	1 key + 36.00 ref
Bonk! Atomic Kicks	25.0%	45.44 ref	3 keys + 12.00 ref
Chief Executor	25.0%	25.55 ref	1 key + 5.00 ref
Deadwave Communicator	25.0%	29.00 ref	1 key + 10.00 ref

Summer 2026 Cosmetics Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost4 keys + 13.78 ref

Expected value2 keys + 55.99 ref

Expected P/L−1 key − 22.12 ref

ROI-31.9%

Win chance0%

Cheapest quoted inputChief Executor27.11 ref each

Strange

strange

10× cost16 keys + 0.62 ref

Expected value4 keys + 54.66 ref

Expected P/L−11 keys − 10.29 ref

ROI-69.7%

Win chance0%

Cheapest quoted inputDeadwave Communicator1 key + 38.66 ref each

Eligible Assassin inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Beachcomber's Brim	32.88 ref	No eligible quote
Bonk! Atomic Kicks	1 key + 29.44 ref	No eligible quote
Chief Executor	27.11 ref	No eligible quote
Deadwave Communicator	35.00 ref	1 key + 38.66 ref

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid	Markets
Hard Hearing	50.0%	2 keys + 17.66 ref	3 keys + 20.00 ref
Pyro's Overalls	50.0%	3 keys + 30.00 ref	6 keys + 25.00 ref

How to trade up to Summer 2026 Cosmetics Collection items

How to trade up to Atomic Bomber

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2026 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Atomic Bomber, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Atomic Bomber trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Bomb Blanket

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2026 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Bomb Blanket, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Bomb Blanket trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Delusions of Grandeur

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2026 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Delusions of Grandeur, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Delusions of Grandeur trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Lieutenant's Cut

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2026 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Lieutenant's Cut, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Lieutenant's Cut trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Standing Offer

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2026 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Standing Offer, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Standing Offer trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Surgical Shroud

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2026 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Surgical Shroud, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Surgical Shroud trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Handsome Ranger

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2026 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of The Handsome Ranger, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Handsome Ranger trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Tsar Athlete

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2026 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Tsar Athlete, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Tsar Athlete trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Beachcomber's Brim

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Summer 2026 Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of Beachcomber's Brim, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Beachcomber's Brim trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Bonk! Atomic Kicks

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Summer 2026 Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of Bonk! Atomic Kicks, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Bonk! Atomic Kicks trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Chief Executor

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Summer 2026 Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of Chief Executor, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Chief Executor trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Deadwave Communicator

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Summer 2026 Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of Deadwave Communicator, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Deadwave Communicator trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Hard Hearing

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Summer 2026 Cosmetics Collection for a 50.00% chance of Hard Hearing, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Hard Hearing trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Pyro's Overalls

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Summer 2026 Cosmetics Collection for a 50.00% chance of Pyro's Overalls, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Pyro's Overalls trade-up odds →

How Summer 2026 Cosmetics Collection odds work

With ten Summer 2026 Cosmetics Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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