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TF2 collection guide · Saved market observations

Summer 2026 Cosmetics Collection Trade-Up Guide

Summer 2026 Cosmetics Collection contains 24 items across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade items include Hard Hearing, Pyro's Overalls. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

24Items
3Routes
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Summer 2026 Cosmetics Collection: choose your target tier

Start with the item you want, then choose the grade immediately below it. Summer 2026 Cosmetics Collection offers 3 adjacent-grade routes. Each row below assumes ten eligible inputs from this collection, with one result per contract; these are not case-opening probabilities.

10 Mercenary inputs → 1 Commando output

Choose among 10 input item names. Each of the 8 outputs has a 12.50% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 6.25% chance.

Commando targets

Compare Mercenary inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Commando inputs → 1 Assassin output

Choose among 8 input item names. Each of the 4 outputs has a 25.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 12.50% chance.

Assassin targets

Compare Commando inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Assassin inputs → 1 Elite output

Choose among 4 input item names. Each of the 2 outputs has a 50.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 25.00% chance.

Elite targets

Compare Assassin inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

Buying a higher-priced input in the same grade does not improve these single-collection odds. Price and quality still matter for cost: Strange and Non-Strange cannot be mixed. Read the odds guide or learn how expected profit differs from a guaranteed return.

Summer 2026 Cosmetic Case

Container information · Series #151

Summer 2026 Cosmetic Case

Summer 2026 Cosmetic Case contains items from the Summer 2026 Cosmetics Collection. The case was introduced on 2026-06-26. Requires a Summer 2026 Cosmetic Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Summer 2026 Cosmetics Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary10 items

80.00%

Commando8 items

16.00%

Assassin4 items

3.20%

Elite2 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade
  • Bald Spotter

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Barbeque Bacon Britches

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Inglorious Patriot

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • The Deadliest Match

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • The Long Shot

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • The Night Riders

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • The Unknown Warrior

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Tropical Torcher

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Unruly Ruler

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Vested Investor's Vest

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

Commando Grade
  • Atomic Bomber

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

  • Bomb Blanket

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

  • Delusions of Grandeur

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

  • Lieutenant's Cut

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

  • Standing Offer

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

  • Surgical Shroud

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

  • The Handsome Ranger

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

  • Tsar Athlete

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

Assassin Grade
  • Beachcomber's Brim

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

  • Bonk! Atomic Kicks

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

  • Chief Executor

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

  • Deadwave Communicator

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

Elite Grade
  • Hard Hearing

    Elite · Chance: 0.40%

  • Pyro's Overalls

    Elite · Chance: 0.40%

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Summer 2026 Cosmetics Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost27.70 ref
Expected value15.51 ref
Expected P/L−12.19 ref
ROI-44.0%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputBald Spotter2.77 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost48.80 ref
Expected value43.12 ref
Expected P/L−5.68 ref
ROI-11.6%
Win chance25%
Cheapest quoted inputThe Long Shot4.88 ref each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Bald Spotter2.77 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Barbeque Bacon Britches6.05 refChecks when viewed12.11 refChecks when viewed
Inglorious Patriot8.44 refChecks when viewed25.33 refChecks when viewed
The Deadliest MatchSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed9.00 refChecks when viewed
The Long Shot2.88 refChecks when viewed4.88 refChecks when viewed
The Night Riders3.11 refChecks when viewed6.77 refChecks when viewed
The Unknown WarriorSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed17.11 refChecks when viewed
Tropical Torcher3.22 refChecks when viewed23.33 refChecks when viewed
Unruly Ruler3.00 refChecks when viewed8.77 refChecks when viewed
Vested Investor's VestSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Atomic Bomber12.5%24.88 refChecks when viewed1 key + 5.11 refChecks when viewed
Bomb Blanket12.5%20.44 refChecks when viewed46.33 refChecks when viewed
Delusions of Grandeur12.5%4.66 refChecks when viewed14.77 refChecks when viewed
Lieutenant's Cut12.5%12.11 refChecks when viewed28.11 refChecks when viewed
Standing Offer12.5%18.33 refChecks when viewed41.11 refChecks when viewed
Surgical Shroud12.5%11.55 refChecks when viewed28.22 refChecks when viewed
The Handsome Ranger12.5%5.55 refChecks when viewed19.66 refChecks when viewed
Tsar Athlete12.5%26.55 refChecks when viewed1 key + 33.00 refChecks when viewed

Summer 2026 Cosmetics Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost61.10 ref
Expected value30.60 ref
Expected P/L−30.49 ref
ROI-49.9%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputThe Handsome Ranger6.11 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost2 keys + 31.34 ref
Expected value1 key + 56.08 ref
Expected P/L−39.59 ref
ROI-24.7%
Win chance25%
Cheapest quoted inputDelusions of Grandeur16.00 ref each

Eligible Commando inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Atomic Bomber23.22 refChecks when viewed1 key + 8.77 refChecks when viewed
Bomb Blanket21.66 refChecks when viewed47.77 refChecks when viewed
Delusions of Grandeur6.66 refChecks when viewed16.00 refChecks when viewed
Lieutenant's Cut15.22 refChecks when viewed34.66 refChecks when viewed
Standing Offer19.88 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Surgical Shroud12.11 refChecks when viewed35.77 refChecks when viewed
The Handsome Ranger6.11 refChecks when viewed24.22 refChecks when viewed
Tsar Athlete27.66 refChecks when viewed2 keys + 14.88 refChecks when viewed

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Beachcomber's Brim25.0%22.22 refChecks when viewed1 key + 40.66 refChecks when viewed
Bonk! Atomic Kicks25.0%52.44 refChecks when viewed3 keysChecks when viewed
Chief Executor25.0%22.88 refChecks when viewed1 key + 30.00 refChecks when viewed
Deadwave Communicator25.0%24.88 refChecks when viewed1 key + 25.00 refChecks when viewed

Summer 2026 Cosmetics Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost3 keys + 30.31 ref
Expected value3 keys + 2.05 ref
Expected P/L−28.26 ref
ROI-12.7%
Win chance50%
Cheapest quoted inputBeachcomber's Brim22.33 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost14 keys + 37.08 ref
Expected value5 keys + 54.66 ref
Expected P/L−8 keys − 46.74 ref
ROI-59.9%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputChief Executor1 key + 29.44 ref each

Eligible Assassin inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Beachcomber's Brim22.33 refChecks when viewed3 keys + 13.00 refChecks when viewed
Bonk! Atomic Kicks55.88 refChecks when viewed3 keys + 19.88 refChecks when viewed
Chief Executor22.66 refChecks when viewed1 key + 29.44 refChecks when viewed
Deadwave Communicator25.22 refChecks when viewed3 keysChecks when viewed

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Hard Hearing50.0%1 key + 52.66 refChecks when viewed3 keys + 40.00 refChecks when viewed
Pyro's Overalls50.0%4 keys + 15.77 refChecks when viewed8 keys + 5.00 refChecks when viewed

How to trade up to Summer 2026 Cosmetics Collection items

How to trade up to Atomic Bomber

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2026 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Atomic Bomber, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Atomic Bomber trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Bomb Blanket

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2026 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Bomb Blanket, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Bomb Blanket trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Delusions of Grandeur

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2026 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Delusions of Grandeur, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Delusions of Grandeur trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Lieutenant's Cut

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2026 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Lieutenant's Cut, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Lieutenant's Cut trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Standing Offer

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2026 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Standing Offer, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Standing Offer trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Surgical Shroud

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2026 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Surgical Shroud, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Surgical Shroud trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Handsome Ranger

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2026 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of The Handsome Ranger, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Handsome Ranger trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Tsar Athlete

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2026 Cosmetics Collection for a 12.50% chance of Tsar Athlete, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Tsar Athlete trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Beachcomber's Brim

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Summer 2026 Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of Beachcomber's Brim, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Beachcomber's Brim trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Bonk! Atomic Kicks

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Summer 2026 Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of Bonk! Atomic Kicks, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Bonk! Atomic Kicks trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Chief Executor

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Summer 2026 Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of Chief Executor, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Chief Executor trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Deadwave Communicator

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Summer 2026 Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of Deadwave Communicator, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Deadwave Communicator trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Hard Hearing

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Summer 2026 Cosmetics Collection for a 50.00% chance of Hard Hearing, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Hard Hearing trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Pyro's Overalls

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Summer 2026 Cosmetics Collection for a 50.00% chance of Pyro's Overalls, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Pyro's Overalls trade-up odds →

How Summer 2026 Cosmetics Collection odds work

With ten Summer 2026 Cosmetics Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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