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TF2 collection guide · Saved market observations

Summer 2019 Cosmetics Collection Trade-Up Guide

Summer 2019 Cosmetics Collection contains 22 items across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade items include Texas Toast, The Peacebreaker. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

22Items
3Routes
LoadingDataset state
Data snapshot . Loading the dataset does not recheck every listing; individual quotes can still be missing or stale.

Steam pricing is temporarily paused. Prices use backpack.tf only.

Summer 2019 Cosmetics Collection: choose your target tier

Start with the item you want, then choose the grade immediately below it. Summer 2019 Cosmetics Collection offers 3 adjacent-grade routes. Each row below assumes ten eligible inputs from this collection, with one result per contract; these are not case-opening probabilities.

10 Mercenary inputs → 1 Commando output

Choose among 10 input item names. Each of the 6 outputs has a 16.67% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 8.33% chance.

Commando targets

Compare Mercenary inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Commando inputs → 1 Assassin output

Choose among 6 input item names. Each of the 4 outputs has a 25.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 12.50% chance.

Assassin targets

Compare Commando inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Assassin inputs → 1 Elite output

Choose among 4 input item names. Each of the 2 outputs has a 50.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 25.00% chance.

Elite targets

Compare Assassin inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

Buying a higher-priced input in the same grade does not improve these single-collection odds. Price and quality still matter for cost: Strange and Non-Strange cannot be mixed. Read the odds guide or learn how expected profit differs from a guaranteed return.

Summer 2019 Cosmetic Case

Container information · Series #123

Summer 2019 Cosmetic Case

Summer 2019 Cosmetic Case contains items from the Summer 2019 Cosmetics Collection. The case was introduced on 2019-07-24. Requires a Summer 2019 Cosmetic Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Summer 2019 Cosmetics Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary10 items

80.00%

Commando6 items

16.00%

Assassin4 items

3.20%

Elite2 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade
  • Backbreaker's Guards

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Brain Interface

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Dancing Doe

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Mediterranean Mercenary

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Melted Mop

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Shutterbug

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Stapler's Specs

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • The Bottle Cap

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • The Pompous Privateer

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Wanderer's Wear

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

Commando Grade
  • Backbreaker's Skullcracker

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

  • Dynamite Abs

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

  • Kapitan's Kaftan

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

  • Spawn Camper

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

  • Speedy Scoundrel

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

  • Wagga Wagga Wear

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

Assassin Grade
  • Bobby Bonnet

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

  • The Bare Necessities

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

  • The Fiery Phoenix

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

  • Unforgiven Glory

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

Elite Grade
  • Texas Toast

    Elite · Chance: 0.40%

  • The Peacebreaker

    Elite · Chance: 0.40%

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Summer 2019 Cosmetics Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost54.40 ref
Expected value60.35 ref
Expected P/L+5.95 ref
ROI10.9%
Win chance17%
Cheapest quoted inputMediterranean Mercenary5.44 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost2 keys + 34.64 ref
Expected value2 keys + 29.44 ref
Expected P/L−5.20 ref
ROI-3.2%
Win chance17%
Cheapest quoted inputMelted Mop16.33 ref each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Backbreaker's Guards5.88 refChecks when viewed16.55 refChecks when viewed
Brain Interface8.33 refChecks when viewed24.00 refChecks when viewed
Dancing Doe8.88 refChecks when viewed26.33 refChecks when viewed
Mediterranean Mercenary5.44 refChecks when viewed17.11 refChecks when viewed
Melted Mop6.44 refChecks when viewed16.33 refChecks when viewed
Shutterbug9.00 refChecks when viewed21.55 refChecks when viewed
Stapler's Specs7.66 refChecks when viewed29.88 refChecks when viewed
The Bottle Cap7.66 refChecks when viewed24.33 refChecks when viewed
The Pompous Privateer5.66 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Wanderer's Wear13.55 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Backbreaker's Skullcracker16.7%6.88 refChecks when viewed27.88 refChecks when viewed
Dynamite Abs16.7%3 keys + 57.33 refChecks when viewed9 keys + 17.88 refChecks when viewed
Kapitan's Kaftan16.7%13.11 refChecks when viewed56.44 refChecks when viewed
Spawn Camper16.7%25.66 refChecks when viewed1 key + 3.11 refChecks when viewed
Speedy Scoundrel16.7%30.11 refChecks when viewed1 key + 11.22 refChecks when viewed
Wagga Wagga Wear16.7%36.00 refChecks when viewed1 key + 60.11 refChecks when viewed

Summer 2019 Cosmetics Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost1 key + 12.27 ref
Expected value1 key + 9.66 ref
Expected P/L−2.61 ref
ROI-3.4%
Win chance25%
Cheapest quoted inputBackbreaker's Skullcracker7.66 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost15 keys + 57.15 ref
Expected value4 keys + 44.05 ref
Expected P/L−11 keys − 13.10 ref
ROI-70.5%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputSpeedy Scoundrel1 key + 37.88 ref each

Eligible Commando inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Backbreaker's Skullcracker7.66 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Dynamite Abs4 keys + 5.11 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Kapitan's Kaftan13.22 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Spawn Camper26.33 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Speedy Scoundrel32.88 refChecks when viewed1 key + 37.88 refChecks when viewed
Wagga Wagga Wear36.00 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Bobby Bonnet25.0%21.00 refChecks when viewed60.00 refChecks when viewed
The Bare Necessities25.0%41.77 refChecks when viewed2 keys + 3.00 refChecks when viewed
The Fiery Phoenix25.0%42.44 refChecks when viewed3 keys + 62.33 refChecks when viewed
Unforgiven Glory25.0%2 keys + 62.11 refChecks when viewed11 keys + 50.88 refChecks when viewed

Summer 2019 Cosmetics Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost3 keys + 20.31 ref
Expected value39.71 ref
Expected P/L−2 keys − 44.93 ref
ROI-81.4%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputBobby Bonnet21.33 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost9 keys + 31.03 ref
Expected value2 keys + 42.94 ref
Expected P/L−6 keys − 52.42 ref
ROI-71.9%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputBobby Bonnet61.00 ref each

Eligible Assassin inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Bobby Bonnet21.33 refChecks when viewed61.00 refChecks when viewed
The Bare Necessities42.11 refChecks when viewed2 keys + 3.11 refChecks when viewed
The Fiery Phoenix49.22 refChecks when viewed4 keys + 36.55 refChecks when viewed
Unforgiven Glory3 keys + 10.22 refChecks when viewed13 keys + 10.77 refChecks when viewed

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Texas Toast50.0%48.77 refChecks when viewed3 keys + 33.55 refChecks when viewed
The Peacebreaker50.0%30.66 refChecks when viewed1 key + 52.33 refChecks when viewed

How to trade up to Summer 2019 Cosmetics Collection items

How to trade up to Backbreaker's Skullcracker

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2019 Cosmetics Collection for a 16.67% chance of Backbreaker's Skullcracker, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Backbreaker's Skullcracker trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Dynamite Abs

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2019 Cosmetics Collection for a 16.67% chance of Dynamite Abs, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Dynamite Abs trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Kapitan's Kaftan

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2019 Cosmetics Collection for a 16.67% chance of Kapitan's Kaftan, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Kapitan's Kaftan trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Spawn Camper

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2019 Cosmetics Collection for a 16.67% chance of Spawn Camper, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Spawn Camper trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Speedy Scoundrel

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2019 Cosmetics Collection for a 16.67% chance of Speedy Scoundrel, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Speedy Scoundrel trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Wagga Wagga Wear

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2019 Cosmetics Collection for a 16.67% chance of Wagga Wagga Wear, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Wagga Wagga Wear trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Bobby Bonnet

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Summer 2019 Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of Bobby Bonnet, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Bobby Bonnet trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Bare Necessities

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Summer 2019 Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of The Bare Necessities, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Bare Necessities trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Fiery Phoenix

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Summer 2019 Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of The Fiery Phoenix, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Fiery Phoenix trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Unforgiven Glory

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Summer 2019 Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of Unforgiven Glory, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Unforgiven Glory trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Texas Toast

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Summer 2019 Cosmetics Collection for a 50.00% chance of Texas Toast, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Texas Toast trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Peacebreaker

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Summer 2019 Cosmetics Collection for a 50.00% chance of The Peacebreaker, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Peacebreaker trade-up odds →

How Summer 2019 Cosmetics Collection odds work

With ten Summer 2019 Cosmetics Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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