How are Winter 2019 Collection trade-up odds calculated?

In a single-collection contract, every recorded item at the next rarity has an equal chance. In a mixed contract, each input contributes ten percent probability to its collection, then that collection share is divided equally among its possible outputs.

Can Strange and non-Strange items be mixed in one TF2 trade-up?

No. A contract must use either all Strange inputs or all non-Strange inputs. This page displays both markets separately.

TF2 collection guide · Saved market observations

Winter 2019 Collection Trade-Up Guide

Winter 2019 Collection contains 10 War Paint designs across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade item is Winterland Wrapped War Paint. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

10Items

3Routes

LoadingDataset state

Data snapshot Tue, 03 Nov 2026 12:08:18 GMT. Loading the dataset does not recheck every listing; individual quotes can still be missing or stale.

Steam pricing is temporarily paused. Prices use backpack.tf only.

Winter 2019 Collection: choose your target tier

Start with the item you want, then choose the grade immediately below it. Winter 2019 Collection offers 3 adjacent-grade routes. Each row below assumes ten eligible inputs from this collection, with one result per contract; these are not case-opening probabilities.

10 Mercenary inputs → 1 Commando output

Choose among 4 input item names. Each of the 3 outputs has a 33.33% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 16.67% chance.

Commando targets

Compare Mercenary inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Commando inputs → 1 Assassin output

Choose among 3 input item names. Each of the 2 outputs has a 50.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 25.00% chance.

Assassin targets

Compare Commando inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Assassin inputs → 1 Elite output

Choose among 2 input item names. Each of the 1 outputs has a 100.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 50.00% chance.

Elite targets

Winterland Wrapped War Paint (Factory New)

Compare Assassin inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

Buying a higher-priced input in the same grade does not improve these single-collection odds. Price and quality still matter for cost: Strange and Non-Strange cannot be mixed, and this guide’s market comparison uses Factory New wear. Read the odds guide or learn how expected profit differs from a guaranteed return.

Container information · Series #126

Winter 2019 War Paint Case

Winter 2019 War Paint Case contains items from the Winter 2019 Collection. The case was introduced on 2019-12-12. Requires a Winter 2019 War Paint Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Winter 2019 Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary4 items

80.00%

Commando3 items

16.00%

Assassin2 items

3.20%

Elite1 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade

Alpine War Paint
Mercenary · Chance: 20.00%
Gift Wrapped War Paint
Mercenary · Chance: 20.00%
Igloo War Paint
Mercenary · Chance: 20.00%
Seriously Snowed War Paint
Mercenary · Chance: 20.00%

Commando Grade

Frost Ornamented War Paint
Commando · Chance: 5.33%
Sleighin' Style War Paint
Commando · Chance: 5.33%
Snow Covered War Paint
Commando · Chance: 5.33%

Assassin Grade

Smissmas Camo War Paint
Assassin · Chance: 1.60%
Smissmas Village War Paint
Assassin · Chance: 1.60%

Elite Grade

Winterland Wrapped War Paint
Elite · Chance: 0.80%

War Paint and decorated-weapon quotes must match both quality and wear. This guide compares Factory New only; select Minimal Wear, Field-Tested, Well-Worn or Battle Scarred in the calculator. Steam pricing is temporarily paused. Backpack.tf wear-specific coverage is limited; missing quotes remain unavailable. A collection’s output wear follows that collection’s inputs, not another collection’s wear.

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Winter 2019 Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost6 keys + 14.02 ref

Expected valueIncomplete quotes

Expected P/LIncomplete quotes

ROIIncomplete quotes

Win chanceIncomplete quotes

Cheapest quoted inputIgloo War Paint40.00 ref each

Strange

strange

10× costIncomplete quotes

Expected valueIncomplete quotes

Expected P/LIncomplete quotes

ROIIncomplete quotes

Win chanceIncomplete quotes

Cheapest quoted inputNo eligible quoteQuote unavailable each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Alpine War Paint	Sell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed	Sell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Gift Wrapped War Paint	Sell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed	Sell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Igloo War Paint	40.00 refChecks when viewed	Sell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Seriously Snowed War Paint	Sell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed	Sell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid
Frost Ornamented War Paint	33.3%	Buy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed	8 keys + 20.22 refChecks when viewed
Sleighin' Style War Paint	33.3%	Buy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed	Buy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed
Snow Covered War Paint	33.3%	Buy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed	5 keys + 27.55 refChecks when viewed

Winter 2019 Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× costIncomplete quotes

Expected valueIncomplete quotes

Expected P/LIncomplete quotes

ROIIncomplete quotes

Win chanceIncomplete quotes

Cheapest quoted inputNo eligible quoteQuote unavailable each

Strange

strange

10× costIncomplete quotes

Expected valueIncomplete quotes

Expected P/LIncomplete quotes

ROIIncomplete quotes

Win chanceIncomplete quotes

Cheapest quoted inputNo eligible quoteQuote unavailable each

Eligible Commando inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Frost Ornamented War Paint	Sell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed	Sell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Sleighin' Style War Paint	Sell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed	Sell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Snow Covered War Paint	Sell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed	Sell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid	Markets
Smissmas Camo War Paint	50.0%	Buy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed	7 keys + 3.88 refChecks when viewed
Smissmas Village War Paint	50.0%	Buy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed	Buy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed

Winter 2019 Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× costIncomplete quotes

Expected valueIncomplete quotes

Expected P/LIncomplete quotes

ROIIncomplete quotes

Win chanceIncomplete quotes

Cheapest quoted inputNo eligible quoteQuote unavailable each

Strange

strange

10× costIncomplete quotes

Expected valueIncomplete quotes

Expected P/LIncomplete quotes

ROIIncomplete quotes

Win chanceIncomplete quotes

Cheapest quoted inputNo eligible quoteQuote unavailable each

Eligible Assassin inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask	Markets
Smissmas Camo War Paint	Sell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed	Sell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Smissmas Village War Paint	Sell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed	Sell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid	Markets
Winterland Wrapped War Paint	100.0%	3 keys + 6.66 refChecks when viewed	43 keys + 0.44 refChecks when viewed

How to trade up to Winter 2019 Collection items

How to trade up to Frost Ornamented War Paint

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2019 Collection for a 33.33% chance of Frost Ornamented War Paint, one of 3 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Frost Ornamented War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Sleighin' Style War Paint

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2019 Collection for a 33.33% chance of Sleighin' Style War Paint, one of 3 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Sleighin' Style War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Snow Covered War Paint

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2019 Collection for a 33.33% chance of Snow Covered War Paint, one of 3 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Snow Covered War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Smissmas Camo War Paint

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Winter 2019 Collection for a 50.00% chance of Smissmas Camo War Paint, one of 2 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Smissmas Camo War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Smissmas Village War Paint

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Winter 2019 Collection for a 50.00% chance of Smissmas Village War Paint, one of 2 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Smissmas Village War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Winterland Wrapped War Paint

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Winter 2019 Collection for a 100.00% chance of Winterland Wrapped War Paint, one of 1 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 50.00%. The ten-input single-collection recipe guarantees the item type, not its selling price or a profit; the mixed recipe does not guarantee the item.

Calculate Winterland Wrapped War Paint trade-up odds →

How Winter 2019 Collection odds work

With ten Winter 2019 Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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