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TF2 collection guide · Saved market observations

Bone-Chilling Bonanza Collection Trade-Up Guide

Bone-Chilling Bonanza Collection contains 25 items across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade items include Bare Bear Bones, Demonic Dome. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

25Items
3Routes
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Bone-Chilling Bonanza Collection: choose your target tier

Start with the item you want, then choose the grade immediately below it. Bone-Chilling Bonanza Collection offers 3 adjacent-grade routes. Each row below assumes ten eligible inputs from this collection, with one result per contract; these are not case-opening probabilities.

10 Mercenary inputs → 1 Commando output

Choose among 10 input item names. Each of the 8 outputs has a 12.50% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 6.25% chance.

Commando targets

Compare Mercenary inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Commando inputs → 1 Assassin output

Choose among 8 input item names. Each of the 5 outputs has a 20.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 10.00% chance.

Assassin targets

Compare Commando inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Assassin inputs → 1 Elite output

Choose among 5 input item names. Each of the 2 outputs has a 50.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 25.00% chance.

Elite targets

Compare Assassin inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

Buying a higher-priced input in the same grade does not improve these single-collection odds. Price and quality still matter for cost: Strange and Non-Strange cannot be mixed. Read the odds guide or learn how expected profit differs from a guaranteed return.

Bone-Chilling Bonanza Case

Container information · Series #142

Bone-Chilling Bonanza Case

Bone-Chilling Bonanza Case contains items from the Bone-Chilling Bonanza Collection. The case was introduced on 2023-10-04. Requires a Bone-Chilling Bonanza Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Bone-Chilling Bonanza Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary10 items

80.00%

Commando8 items

16.00%

Assassin5 items

3.20%

Elite2 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade
  • Concealed Convict

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Constructor's Cover

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Ludicrously Lunatic Lunon Fedora

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Medical Mummy

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Shortness Of Breath

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Six-Eyed Specs

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Splitting Headache

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • The Make Ogre

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • The Mean Captain

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Thunder Dome

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

Commando Grade
  • Classic Criminal

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

  • Dead Heat

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

  • Dell Dynamic

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

  • Jumping Jester

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

  • Sharpshooter's Shroud

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

  • Stunt Suit

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

  • The Main Cast

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

  • Warlock's Warcloak

    Commando · Chance: 2.00%

Assassin Grade
  • Clown's Cover-Up

    Assassin · Chance: 0.64%

  • Mad Lad

    Assassin · Chance: 0.64%

  • Power Spike

    Assassin · Chance: 0.64%

  • Sightseer

    Assassin · Chance: 0.64%

  • The Last Laugh

    Assassin · Chance: 0.64%

Elite Grade
  • Bare Bear Bones

    Elite · Chance: 0.40%

  • Demonic Dome

    Elite · Chance: 0.40%

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Bone-Chilling Bonanza Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost27.70 ref
Expected value11.12 ref
Expected P/L−16.58 ref
ROI-59.9%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputThunder Dome2.77 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost34.40 ref
Expected value38.97 ref
Expected P/L+4.57 ref
ROI13.3%
Win chance50%
Cheapest quoted inputSplitting Headache3.44 ref each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Concealed ConvictSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed4.33 refChecks when viewed
Constructor's Cover3.11 refChecks when viewed3.44 refChecks when viewed
Ludicrously Lunatic Lunon Fedora2.88 refChecks when viewed7.22 refChecks when viewed
Medical Mummy2.88 refChecks when viewed4.11 refChecks when viewed
Shortness Of Breath3.55 refChecks when viewed8.22 refChecks when viewed
Six-Eyed SpecsSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed4.11 refChecks when viewed
Splitting HeadacheSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed3.44 refChecks when viewed
The Make Ogre3.33 refChecks when viewed4.88 refChecks when viewed
The Mean Captain5.44 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Thunder Dome2.77 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Classic Criminal12.5%8.77 refChecks when viewed30.11 refChecks when viewed
Dead Heat12.5%9.55 refChecks when viewed39.44 refChecks when viewed
Dell Dynamic12.5%9.44 refChecks when viewed31.00 refChecks when viewed
Jumping Jester12.5%8.66 refChecks when viewed37.33 refChecks when viewed
Sharpshooter's Shroud12.5%8.55 refChecks when viewed33.11 refChecks when viewed
Stunt Suit12.5%26.66 refChecks when viewed1 key + 5.77 refChecks when viewed
The Main Cast12.5%8.55 refChecks when viewed32.33 refChecks when viewed
Warlock's Warcloak12.5%8.77 refChecks when viewed38.33 refChecks when viewed

Bone-Chilling Bonanza Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost1 key + 23.37 ref
Expected value1 key + 37.94 ref
Expected P/L+14.57 ref
ROI16.6%
Win chance40%
Cheapest quoted inputSharpshooter's Shroud8.77 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost5 keys + 9.45 ref
Expected value5 keys + 2.61 ref
Expected P/L−6.84 ref
ROI-2.1%
Win chance40%
Cheapest quoted inputClassic Criminal33.11 ref each

Eligible Commando inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Classic Criminal8.88 refChecks when viewed33.11 refChecks when viewed
Dead Heat9.77 refChecks when viewed39.77 refChecks when viewed
Dell Dynamic9.66 refChecks when viewed34.00 refChecks when viewed
Jumping Jester8.88 refChecks when viewed1 key + 7.22 refChecks when viewed
Sharpshooter's Shroud8.77 refChecks when viewed35.44 refChecks when viewed
Stunt Suit26.66 refChecks when viewed1 key + 12.77 refChecks when viewed
The Main Cast9.00 refChecks when viewed35.55 refChecks when viewed
Warlock's Warcloak9.00 refChecks when viewed41.00 refChecks when viewed

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Clown's Cover-Up20.0%4 keys + 37.77 refChecks when viewed15 keys + 18.38 refChecks when viewed
Mad Lad20.0%63.44 refChecks when viewed1 key + 35.00 refChecks when viewed
Power Spike20.0%34.77 refChecks when viewed2 keys + 5.66 refChecks when viewed
Sightseer20.0%12.00 refChecks when viewed59.33 refChecks when viewed
The Last Laugh20.0%1 key + 41.72 refChecks when viewed5 keys + 23.33 refChecks when viewed

Bone-Chilling Bonanza Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost1 key + 57.87 ref
Expected value1 key + 8.60 ref
Expected P/L−49.27 ref
ROI-40.3%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputSightseer12.22 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost10 keys + 23.30 ref
Expected value6 keys + 30.10 ref
Expected P/L−3 keys − 57.52 ref
ROI-37.6%
Win chance50%
Cheapest quoted inputSightseer1 key + 2.33 ref each

Eligible Assassin inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Clown's Cover-Up4 keys + 39.66 refChecks when viewed15 keys + 40.66 refChecks when viewed
Mad Lad63.44 refChecks when viewed1 key + 53.88 refChecks when viewed
Power Spike35.00 refChecks when viewed2 keys + 22.11 refChecks when viewed
Sightseer12.22 refChecks when viewed1 key + 2.33 refChecks when viewed
The Last Laugh1 key + 45.11 refChecks when viewed5 keys + 28.00 refChecks when viewed

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Bare Bear Bones50.0%40.77 refChecks when viewed2 keys + 15.44 refChecks when viewed
Demonic Dome50.0%1 key + 40.77 refChecks when viewed10 keys + 44.77 refChecks when viewed

How to trade up to Bone-Chilling Bonanza Collection items

How to trade up to Classic Criminal

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Bone-Chilling Bonanza Collection for a 12.50% chance of Classic Criminal, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Classic Criminal trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Dead Heat

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Bone-Chilling Bonanza Collection for a 12.50% chance of Dead Heat, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Dead Heat trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Dell Dynamic

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Bone-Chilling Bonanza Collection for a 12.50% chance of Dell Dynamic, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Dell Dynamic trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Jumping Jester

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Bone-Chilling Bonanza Collection for a 12.50% chance of Jumping Jester, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Jumping Jester trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Sharpshooter's Shroud

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Bone-Chilling Bonanza Collection for a 12.50% chance of Sharpshooter's Shroud, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Sharpshooter's Shroud trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Stunt Suit

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Bone-Chilling Bonanza Collection for a 12.50% chance of Stunt Suit, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Stunt Suit trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Main Cast

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Bone-Chilling Bonanza Collection for a 12.50% chance of The Main Cast, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Main Cast trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Warlock's Warcloak

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Bone-Chilling Bonanza Collection for a 12.50% chance of Warlock's Warcloak, one of 8 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 6.25%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Warlock's Warcloak trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Clown's Cover-Up

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Bone-Chilling Bonanza Collection for a 20.00% chance of Clown's Cover-Up, one of 5 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Clown's Cover-Up trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Mad Lad

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Bone-Chilling Bonanza Collection for a 20.00% chance of Mad Lad, one of 5 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Mad Lad trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Power Spike

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Bone-Chilling Bonanza Collection for a 20.00% chance of Power Spike, one of 5 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Power Spike trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Sightseer

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Bone-Chilling Bonanza Collection for a 20.00% chance of Sightseer, one of 5 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Sightseer trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Last Laugh

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Bone-Chilling Bonanza Collection for a 20.00% chance of The Last Laugh, one of 5 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Last Laugh trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Bare Bear Bones

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Bone-Chilling Bonanza Collection for a 50.00% chance of Bare Bear Bones, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Bare Bear Bones trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Demonic Dome

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Bone-Chilling Bonanza Collection for a 50.00% chance of Demonic Dome, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Demonic Dome trade-up odds →

How Bone-Chilling Bonanza Collection odds work

With ten Bone-Chilling Bonanza Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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