How are Rainy Day Cosmetics Collection trade-up odds calculated?

In a single-collection contract, every recorded item at the next rarity has an equal chance. In a mixed contract, each input contributes ten percent probability to its collection, then that collection share is divided equally among its possible outputs.

Can Strange and non-Strange items be mixed in one TF2 trade-up?

No. A contract must use either all Strange inputs or all non-Strange inputs. This page displays both markets separately.

TF2 collection guide · Saved market observations

Rainy Day Cosmetics Collection Trade-Up Guide

Rainy Day Cosmetics Collection contains 19 items across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade items include Flash of Inspiration, The Lightning Lid. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

19Items

3Routes

LoadingDataset state

Data snapshot Tue, 03 Nov 2026 12:10:30 GMT. Loading the dataset does not recheck every listing; individual quotes can still be missing or stale.

Steam pricing is temporarily paused. Prices use backpack.tf only.

Rainy Day Cosmetics Collection: choose your target tier

Start with the item you want, then choose the grade immediately below it. Rainy Day Cosmetics Collection offers 3 adjacent-grade routes. Each row below assumes ten eligible inputs from this collection, with one result per contract; these are not case-opening probabilities.

10 Mercenary inputs → 1 Commando output

Choose among 9 input item names. Each of the 5 outputs has a 20.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 10.00% chance.

Commando targets

Compare Mercenary inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Commando inputs → 1 Assassin output

Choose among 5 input item names. Each of the 3 outputs has a 33.33% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 16.67% chance.

Assassin targets

Compare Commando inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Assassin inputs → 1 Elite output

Choose among 3 input item names. Each of the 2 outputs has a 50.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 25.00% chance.

Elite targets

Compare Assassin inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

Buying a higher-priced input in the same grade does not improve these single-collection odds. Price and quality still matter for cost: Strange and Non-Strange cannot be mixed. Read the odds guide or learn how expected profit differs from a guaranteed return.

Container information · Series #106

Rainy Day Cosmetic Case

Rainy Day Cosmetic Case contains items from the Rainy Day Cosmetics Collection. The case was introduced on 2017-05-10. Requires a Rainy Day Cosmetic Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Rainy Day Cosmetics Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary9 items

80.00%

Commando5 items

16.00%

Assassin3 items

3.20%

Elite2 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade

Airborne Attire
Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%
Airtight Arsonist
Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%
Blast Defense
Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%
Field Practice
Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%
Flakcatcher
Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%
Head Mounted Double Observatory
Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%
Speedster's Spandex
Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%
The Upgrade
Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%
Warhood
Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%

Commando Grade

Archer's Sterling
Commando · Chance: 3.20%
Down Under Duster
Commando · Chance: 3.20%
Hawk-Eyed Hunter
Commando · Chance: 3.20%
Messenger's Mail Bag
Commando · Chance: 3.20%
Pocket Pauling
Commando · Chance: 3.20%

Assassin Grade

Guilden Guardian
Assassin · Chance: 1.07%
Legendary Lid
Assassin · Chance: 1.07%
Plumber's Cap
Assassin · Chance: 1.07%

Elite Grade

Flash of Inspiration
Elite · Chance: 0.40%
The Lightning Lid
Elite · Chance: 0.40%

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Rainy Day Cosmetics Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost27.70 ref

Expected value5.14 ref

Expected P/L−22.56 ref

ROI-81.4%

Win chance0%

Cheapest quoted inputHead Mounted Double Observatory2.77 ref each

Strange

strange

10× cost35.50 ref

Expected valueIncomplete quotes

Expected P/LIncomplete quotes

ROIIncomplete quotes

Win chanceIncomplete quotes

Cheapest quoted inputSpeedster's Spandex3.55 ref each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Airborne Attire	6.00 refChecks when viewed	19.77 refChecks when viewed
Airtight Arsonist	2.77 refChecks when viewed	5.44 refChecks when viewed
Blast Defense	Sell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed	5.77 refChecks when viewed
Field Practice	3.11 refChecks when viewed	7.94 refChecks when viewed
Flakcatcher	2.88 refChecks when viewed	6.55 refChecks when viewed
Head Mounted Double Observatory	2.77 refChecks when viewed	Sell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Speedster's Spandex	2.88 refChecks when viewed	3.55 refChecks when viewed
The Upgrade	2.88 refChecks when viewed	Sell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Warhood	3.11 refChecks when viewed	6.22 refChecks when viewed

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid
Archer's Sterling	20.0%	3.00 refChecks when viewed	10.33 refChecks when viewed
Down Under Duster	20.0%	13.77 refChecks when viewed	47.33 refChecks when viewed
Hawk-Eyed Hunter	20.0%	2.88 refChecks when viewed	Buy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed
Messenger's Mail Bag	20.0%	3.00 refChecks when viewed	12.00 refChecks when viewed
Pocket Pauling	20.0%	3.05 refChecks when viewed	12.00 refChecks when viewed

Rainy Day Cosmetics Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost30.00 ref

Expected value26.55 ref

Expected P/L−3.45 ref

ROI-11.5%

Win chance67%

Cheapest quoted inputHawk Eyed Hunter3.00 ref each

Strange

strange

10× cost1 key + 47.87 ref

Expected value1 key + 36.78 ref

Expected P/L−11.09 ref

ROI-9.9%

Win chance33%

Cheapest quoted inputHawk Eyed Hunter11.22 ref each

Eligible Commando inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Archer's Sterling	Sell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed	Sell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Down Under Duster	14.00 refChecks when viewed	55.66 refChecks when viewed
Hawk-Eyed Hunter	3.00 refChecks when viewed	11.22 refChecks when viewed
Messenger's Mail Bag	Sell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed	Sell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Pocket Pauling	3.44 refChecks when viewed	Sell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid
Guilden Guardian	33.3%	6.77 refChecks when viewed	41.11 refChecks when viewed
Legendary Lid	33.3%	41.33 refChecks when viewed	2 keys + 29.22 refChecks when viewed
Plumber's Cap	33.3%	31.55 refChecks when viewed	1 key + 40.00 refChecks when viewed

Rainy Day Cosmetics Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost1 key + 17.87 ref

Expected value49.38 ref

Expected P/L−32.82 ref

ROI-39.9%

Win chance0%

Cheapest quoted inputGuilden Guardian8.22 ref each

Strange

strange

10× cost6 keys + 46.22 ref

Expected value2 keys + 15.22 ref

Expected P/L−4 keys − 31.00 ref

ROI-66.7%

Win chance0%

Cheapest quoted inputGuilden Guardian43.22 ref each

Eligible Assassin inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Guilden Guardian	8.22 refChecks when viewed	43.22 refChecks when viewed
Legendary Lid	41.55 refChecks when viewed	2 keys + 31.22 refChecks when viewed
Plumber's Cap	31.66 refChecks when viewed	1 key + 48.66 refChecks when viewed

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid	Markets
Flash of Inspiration	50.0%	1 key + 3.33 refChecks when viewed	3 keys + 7.11 refChecks when viewed
The Lightning Lid	50.0%	31.11 refChecks when viewed	1 key + 23.33 refChecks when viewed

How to trade up to Rainy Day Cosmetics Collection items

How to trade up to Archer's Sterling

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Rainy Day Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of Archer's Sterling, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Archer's Sterling trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Down Under Duster

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Rainy Day Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of Down Under Duster, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Down Under Duster trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Hawk-Eyed Hunter

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Rainy Day Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of Hawk-Eyed Hunter, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Hawk-Eyed Hunter trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Messenger's Mail Bag

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Rainy Day Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of Messenger's Mail Bag, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Messenger's Mail Bag trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Pocket Pauling

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Rainy Day Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of Pocket Pauling, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Pocket Pauling trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Guilden Guardian

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Rainy Day Cosmetics Collection for a 33.33% chance of Guilden Guardian, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Guilden Guardian trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Legendary Lid

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Rainy Day Cosmetics Collection for a 33.33% chance of Legendary Lid, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Legendary Lid trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Plumber's Cap

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Rainy Day Cosmetics Collection for a 33.33% chance of Plumber's Cap, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Plumber's Cap trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Flash of Inspiration

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Rainy Day Cosmetics Collection for a 50.00% chance of Flash of Inspiration, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Flash of Inspiration trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Lightning Lid

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Rainy Day Cosmetics Collection for a 50.00% chance of The Lightning Lid, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Lightning Lid trade-up odds →

How Rainy Day Cosmetics Collection odds work

With ten Rainy Day Cosmetics Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

Explore related TF2 collections

Abominable Cosmetic Collection items & trade-up odds →

Blue Moon Cosmetics Collection items & trade-up odds →

Bone-Chilling Bonanza Collection items & trade-up odds →

Confidential Collection items & trade-up odds →

Browse every TF2 collection