How are Rainy Day Cosmetics Collection trade-up odds calculated?

In a single-collection contract, every recorded item at the next rarity has an equal chance. In a mixed contract, each input contributes ten percent probability to its collection, then that collection share is divided equally among its possible outputs.

Can Strange and non-Strange items be mixed in one TF2 trade-up?

No. A contract must use either all Strange inputs or all non-Strange inputs. This page displays both markets separately.

TF2 collection guide · Live calculator data

Rainy Day Cosmetics Collection Trade-Up Guide

Rainy Day Cosmetics Collection contains 19 items across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade items include Flash of Inspiration, The Lightning Lid. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

19Items

3Routes

CheckingPrice state

Data snapshot Tue, 08 Sep 2026 22:02:16 GMT

Container information · Series #106

Rainy Day Cosmetic Case

Rainy Day Cosmetic Case contains items from the Rainy Day Cosmetics Collection. The case was introduced on 2017-05-10. Requires a Rainy Day Cosmetic Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Rainy Day Cosmetics Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary9 items

80.00%

Commando5 items

16.00%

Assassin3 items

3.20%

Elite2 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade

Airborne Attire
Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%
Airtight Arsonist
Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%
Blast Defense
Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%
Field Practice
Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%
Flakcatcher
Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%
Head Mounted Double Observatory
Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%
Speedster's Spandex
Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%
The Upgrade
Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%
Warhood
Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%

Commando Grade

Archer's Sterling
Commando · Chance: 3.20%
Down Under Duster
Commando · Chance: 3.20%
Hawk-Eyed Hunter
Commando · Chance: 3.20%
Messenger's Mail Bag
Commando · Chance: 3.20%
Pocket Pauling
Commando · Chance: 3.20%

Assassin Grade

Guilden Guardian
Assassin · Chance: 1.07%
Legendary Lid
Assassin · Chance: 1.07%
Plumber's Cap
Assassin · Chance: 1.07%

Elite Grade

Flash of Inspiration
Elite · Chance: 0.40%
The Lightning Lid
Elite · Chance: 0.40%

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Rainy Day Cosmetics Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost31.10 ref

Expected value6.29 ref

Expected P/L−24.81 ref

ROI-79.8%

Win chance0%

Cheapest quoted inputSpeedster's Spandex3.11 ref each

Strange

strange

10× cost35.50 ref

Expected value22.31 ref

Expected P/L−13.19 ref

ROI-37.2%

Win chance20%

Cheapest quoted inputSpeedster's Spandex3.55 ref each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Airborne Attire	7.77 ref	21.00 ref
Airtight Arsonist	3.11 ref	6.94 ref
Blast Defense	3.22 ref	6.77 ref
Field Practice	3.44 ref	9.61 ref
Flakcatcher	3.88 ref	8.66 ref
Head Mounted Double Observatory	3.11 ref	3.55 ref
Speedster's Spandex	3.11 ref	3.55 ref
The Upgrade	3.11 ref	4.44 ref
Warhood	4.00 ref	9.00 ref

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid
Archer's Sterling	20.0%	3.11 ref	12.55 ref
Down Under Duster	20.0%	18.88 ref	57.33 ref
Hawk-Eyed Hunter	20.0%	3.33 ref	13.11 ref
Messenger's Mail Bag	20.0%	3.11 ref	13.11 ref
Pocket Pauling	20.0%	3.00 ref	15.44 ref

Rainy Day Cosmetics Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost32.20 ref

Expected value30.63 ref

Expected P/L−1.57 ref

ROI-4.9%

Win chance67%

Cheapest quoted inputPocket Pauling3.22 ref each

Strange

strange

10× cost2 keys + 1.34 ref

Expected value1 key + 44.55 ref

Expected P/L−21.12 ref

ROI-16.2%

Win chance33%

Cheapest quoted inputArcher's Sterling13.00 ref each

Eligible Commando inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Archer's Sterling	3.33 ref	13.00 ref
Down Under Duster	19.44 ref	1 key + 3.66 ref
Hawk-Eyed Hunter	3.44 ref	14.11 ref
Messenger's Mail Bag	3.44 ref	No eligible quote
Pocket Pauling	3.22 ref	15.88 ref

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid
Guilden Guardian	33.3%	7.88 ref	39.00 ref
Legendary Lid	33.3%	49.00 ref	2 keys + 47.00 ref
Plumber's Cap	33.3%	35.00 ref	1 key + 47.66 ref

Rainy Day Cosmetics Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost1 key + 24.47 ref

Expected value53.83 ref

Expected P/L−34.97 ref

ROI-39.4%

Win chance0%

Cheapest quoted inputGuilden Guardian8.88 ref each

Strange

strange

10× cost6 keys + 46.22 ref

Expected value2 keys + 19.55 ref

Expected P/L−4 keys − 26.67 ref

ROI-65.7%

Win chance0%

Cheapest quoted inputGuilden Guardian43.22 ref each

Eligible Assassin inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Guilden Guardian	8.88 ref	43.22 ref
Legendary Lid	50.00 ref	No eligible quote
Plumber's Cap	35.77 ref	1 key + 50.77 ref

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid	Markets
Flash of Inspiration	50.0%	1 key + 7.55 ref	3 keys + 16.44 ref
The Lightning Lid	50.0%	35.77 ref	1 key + 22.66 ref

How to trade up to Rainy Day Cosmetics Collection items

How to trade up to Archer's Sterling

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Rainy Day Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of Archer's Sterling, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Archer's Sterling trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Down Under Duster

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Rainy Day Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of Down Under Duster, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Down Under Duster trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Hawk-Eyed Hunter

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Rainy Day Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of Hawk-Eyed Hunter, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Hawk-Eyed Hunter trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Messenger's Mail Bag

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Rainy Day Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of Messenger's Mail Bag, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Messenger's Mail Bag trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Pocket Pauling

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Rainy Day Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of Pocket Pauling, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Pocket Pauling trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Guilden Guardian

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Rainy Day Cosmetics Collection for a 33.33% chance of Guilden Guardian, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Guilden Guardian trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Legendary Lid

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Rainy Day Cosmetics Collection for a 33.33% chance of Legendary Lid, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Legendary Lid trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Plumber's Cap

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Rainy Day Cosmetics Collection for a 33.33% chance of Plumber's Cap, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Plumber's Cap trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Flash of Inspiration

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Rainy Day Cosmetics Collection for a 50.00% chance of Flash of Inspiration, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Flash of Inspiration trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Lightning Lid

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Rainy Day Cosmetics Collection for a 50.00% chance of The Lightning Lid, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Lightning Lid trade-up odds →

How Rainy Day Cosmetics Collection odds work

With ten Rainy Day Cosmetics Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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