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TF2 collection guide · Saved market observations

Winter 2018 Cosmetics Collection Trade-Up Guide

Winter 2018 Cosmetics Collection contains 18 items across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade item is Bread Heads. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

18Items
3Routes
LoadingDataset state
Data snapshot . Loading the dataset does not recheck every listing; individual quotes can still be missing or stale.

Steam pricing is temporarily paused. Prices use backpack.tf only.

Winter 2018 Cosmetics Collection: choose your target tier

Start with the item you want, then choose the grade immediately below it. Winter 2018 Cosmetics Collection offers 3 adjacent-grade routes. Each row below assumes ten eligible inputs from this collection, with one result per contract; these are not case-opening probabilities.

10 Mercenary inputs → 1 Commando output

Choose among 9 input item names. Each of the 5 outputs has a 20.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 10.00% chance.

Commando targets

Compare Mercenary inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Commando inputs → 1 Assassin output

Choose among 5 input item names. Each of the 3 outputs has a 33.33% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 16.67% chance.

Assassin targets

Compare Commando inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Assassin inputs → 1 Elite output

Choose among 3 input item names. Each of the 1 outputs has a 100.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 50.00% chance.

Elite targets

Compare Assassin inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

Buying a higher-priced input in the same grade does not improve these single-collection odds. Price and quality still matter for cost: Strange and Non-Strange cannot be mixed. Read the odds guide or learn how expected profit differs from a guaranteed return.

Winter 2018 Cosmetic Case

Container information · Series #122

Winter 2018 Cosmetic Case

Winter 2018 Cosmetic Case contains items from the Winter 2018 Cosmetics Collection. The case was introduced on 2018-12-19. Requires a Winter 2018 Cosmetic Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Winter 2018 Cosmetics Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary9 items

80.00%

Commando5 items

16.00%

Assassin3 items

3.20%

Elite1 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade
  • Climbing Commander

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%

  • Juvenile's Jumper

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%

  • Mighty Mitre

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%

  • Paka Parka

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%

  • Pocket Pardner

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%

  • Snowcapped

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%

  • The Catcher's Companion

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%

  • The Crack Pot

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%

  • Wise Whiskers

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.89%

Commando Grade
  • Cool Capuchon

    Commando · Chance: 3.20%

  • Harry

    Commando · Chance: 3.20%

  • Miser's Muttonchops

    Commando · Chance: 3.20%

  • Pocket Admin

    Commando · Chance: 3.20%

  • The Puggyback

    Commando · Chance: 3.20%

Assassin Grade
  • Millennial Mercenary

    Assassin · Chance: 1.07%

  • The Dumb Bell

    Assassin · Chance: 1.07%

  • The Polar Pal

    Assassin · Chance: 1.07%

Elite Grade
  • Bread Heads

    Elite · Chance: 0.80%

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Winter 2018 Cosmetics Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost32.20 ref
Expected value20.08 ref
Expected P/L−12.12 ref
ROI-37.6%
Win chance20%
Cheapest quoted inputThe Crack Pot3.22 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost1 key + 33.37 ref
Expected value1 key + 18.08 ref
Expected P/L−15.29 ref
ROI-15.6%
Win chance20%
Cheapest quoted inputThe Crack Pot9.77 ref each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Climbing Commander5.44 refChecks when viewed11.77 refChecks when viewed
Juvenile's Jumper9.55 refChecks when viewed24.33 refChecks when viewed
Mighty Mitre4.00 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Paka Parka11.55 refChecks when viewed29.11 refChecks when viewed
Pocket Pardner4.22 refChecks when viewedSell listing quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed
Snowcapped5.44 refChecks when viewed15.11 refChecks when viewed
The Catcher's Companion3.22 refChecks when viewed12.00 refChecks when viewed
The Crack Pot3.22 refChecks when viewed9.77 refChecks when viewed
Wise Whiskers5.33 refChecks when viewed15.33 refChecks when viewed

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Cool Capuchon20.0%5.44 refChecks when viewed24.77 refChecks when viewed
Harry20.0%1 key + 0.66 refChecks when viewed4 keys + 0.88 refChecks when viewed
Miser's Muttonchops20.0%5.44 refChecks when viewed27.00 refChecks when viewed
Pocket Admin20.0%4.11 refChecks when viewed23.77 refChecks when viewed
The Puggyback20.0%20.44 refChecks when viewed1 key + 14.00 refChecks when viewed

Winter 2018 Cosmetics Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost43.30 ref
Expected value43.07 ref
Expected P/L−0.23 ref
ROI-0.5%
Win chance33%
Cheapest quoted inputPocket Admin4.33 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost4 keys + 5.98 ref
Expected value3 keys + 56.85 ref
Expected P/L−13.46 ref
ROI-5.1%
Win chance33%
Cheapest quoted inputCool Capuchon26.33 ref each

Eligible Commando inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Cool CapuchonSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed26.33 refChecks when viewed
Harry1 key + 11.66 refChecks when viewed4 keys + 10.33 refChecks when viewed
Miser's Muttonchops5.55 refChecks when viewed27.88 refChecks when viewed
Pocket Admin4.33 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
The Puggyback20.22 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Millennial Mercenary33.3%37.11 refChecks when viewed1 key + 33.44 refChecks when viewed
The Dumb Bell33.3%22.88 refChecks when viewed1 key + 60.66 refChecks when viewed
The Polar Pal33.3%1 key + 4.88 refChecks when viewed8 keys + 12.11 refChecks when viewed

Winter 2018 Cosmetics Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost3 keys + 38.11 ref
Expected value2 keys + 7.77 ref
Expected P/L−1 key − 30.34 ref
ROI-41.0%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputThe Dumb Bell23.11 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost15 keys + 14.95 ref
Expected value4 keys + 8.22 ref
Expected P/L−11 keys − 6.73 ref
ROI-72.9%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputMillennial Mercenary1 key + 33.66 ref each

Eligible Assassin inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Millennial Mercenary37.33 refChecks when viewed1 key + 33.66 refChecks when viewed
The Dumb Bell23.11 refChecks when viewed2 keys + 9.66 refChecks when viewed
The Polar Pal1 key + 6.11 refChecks when viewed8 keys + 26.77 refChecks when viewed

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Bread Heads100.0%2 keys + 7.77 refChecks when viewed4 keys + 8.22 refChecks when viewed

How to trade up to Winter 2018 Cosmetics Collection items

How to trade up to Cool Capuchon

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2018 Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of Cool Capuchon, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Cool Capuchon trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Harry

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2018 Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of Harry, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Harry trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Miser's Muttonchops

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2018 Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of Miser's Muttonchops, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Miser's Muttonchops trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Pocket Admin

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2018 Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of Pocket Admin, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Pocket Admin trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Puggyback

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2018 Cosmetics Collection for a 20.00% chance of The Puggyback, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Puggyback trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Millennial Mercenary

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Winter 2018 Cosmetics Collection for a 33.33% chance of Millennial Mercenary, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Millennial Mercenary trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Dumb Bell

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Winter 2018 Cosmetics Collection for a 33.33% chance of The Dumb Bell, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Dumb Bell trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Polar Pal

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Winter 2018 Cosmetics Collection for a 33.33% chance of The Polar Pal, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Polar Pal trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Bread Heads

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Winter 2018 Cosmetics Collection for a 100.00% chance of Bread Heads, one of 1 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 50.00%. The ten-input single-collection recipe guarantees the item type, not its selling price or a profit; the mixed recipe does not guarantee the item.

Calculate Bread Heads trade-up odds →

How Winter 2018 Cosmetics Collection odds work

With ten Winter 2018 Cosmetics Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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