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TF2 collection guide · Saved market observations

Terrifying Trove Collection Trade-Up Guide

Terrifying Trove Collection contains 21 items across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade item is Sear Seer. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

21Items
3Routes
LoadingDataset state
Data snapshot . Loading the dataset does not recheck every listing; individual quotes can still be missing or stale.

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Terrifying Trove Collection: choose your target tier

Start with the item you want, then choose the grade immediately below it. Terrifying Trove Collection offers 3 adjacent-grade routes. Each row below assumes ten eligible inputs from this collection, with one result per contract; these are not case-opening probabilities.

10 Mercenary inputs → 1 Commando output

Choose among 10 input item names. Each of the 6 outputs has a 16.67% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 8.33% chance.

Commando targets

Compare Mercenary inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Commando inputs → 1 Assassin output

Choose among 6 input item names. Each of the 4 outputs has a 25.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 12.50% chance.

Assassin targets

Compare Commando inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Assassin inputs → 1 Elite output

Choose among 4 input item names. Each of the 1 outputs has a 100.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 50.00% chance.

Elite targets

Compare Assassin inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

Buying a higher-priced input in the same grade does not improve these single-collection odds. Price and quality still matter for cost: Strange and Non-Strange cannot be mixed. Read the odds guide or learn how expected profit differs from a guaranteed return.

Terrifying Trove Case

Container information · Series #145

Terrifying Trove Case

Terrifying Trove Case contains items from the Terrifying Trove Collection. The case was introduced on 2024-10-08. Requires a Terrifying Trove Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Terrifying Trove Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary10 items

80.00%

Commando6 items

16.00%

Assassin4 items

3.20%

Elite1 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade
  • Defaced Detonator

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Dusk Duster

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Fleet Commander

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Mannhattan Protect

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Nightfall Veil

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • School Nuisance

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Spider Sights

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • The Strikeout

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • The Witch Doctor

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Triboniophorus Gentlemannus

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

Commando Grade
  • Delldozer

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

  • Hellish Overlord

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

  • Nuclear Necessity

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

  • Shadow Shroud

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

  • Strigoi Stare

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

  • The Surgeon General

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

Assassin Grade
  • Badlands Bandido

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

  • Chiromancer's Kit

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

  • Contaminated Carryall

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

  • Duality of Mantle

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

Elite Grade
  • Sear Seer

    Elite · Chance: 0.80%

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Terrifying Trove Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost28.80 ref
Expected value7.55 ref
Expected P/L−21.25 ref
ROI-73.8%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputThe Witch Doctor2.88 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost36.60 ref
Expected value22.62 ref
Expected P/L−13.98 ref
ROI-38.2%
Win chance17%
Cheapest quoted inputThe Strikeout3.66 ref each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Defaced Detonator3.00 refChecks when viewed6.55 refChecks when viewed
Dusk Duster3.55 refChecks when viewed10.55 refChecks when viewed
Fleet Commander3.11 refChecks when viewed6.11 refChecks when viewed
Mannhattan Protect3.00 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Nightfall Veil3.00 refChecks when viewed6.88 refChecks when viewed
School Nuisance3.38 refChecks when viewed4.61 refChecks when viewed
Spider SightsSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed4.44 refChecks when viewed
The StrikeoutSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed3.66 refChecks when viewed
The Witch Doctor2.88 refChecks when viewed11.11 refChecks when viewed
Triboniophorus Gentlemannus3.00 refChecks when viewed4.44 refChecks when viewed

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Delldozer16.7%23.00 refChecks when viewed62.88 refChecks when viewed
Hellish Overlord16.7%3.88 refChecks when viewed11.88 refChecks when viewed
Nuclear Necessity16.7%2.88 refChecks when viewed14.44 refChecks when viewed
Shadow Shroud16.7%6.22 refChecks when viewed17.44 refChecks when viewed
Strigoi Stare16.7%5.88 refChecks when viewed18.44 refChecks when viewed
The Surgeon General16.7%3.44 refChecks when viewed10.66 refChecks when viewed

Terrifying Trove Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost33.30 ref
Expected value36.08 ref
Expected P/L+2.78 ref
ROI8.3%
Win chance50%
Cheapest quoted inputThe Surgeon General3.33 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost1 key + 44.47 ref
Expected value1 key + 50.44 ref
Expected P/L+5.97 ref
ROI5.5%
Win chance50%
Cheapest quoted inputThe Surgeon General10.88 ref each

Eligible Commando inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Delldozer23.22 refChecks when viewed1 key + 1.66 refChecks when viewed
Hellish Overlord3.88 refChecks when viewed12.11 refChecks when viewed
Nuclear Necessity5.00 refChecks when viewed15.11 refChecks when viewed
Shadow Shroud6.44 refChecks when viewed17.66 refChecks when viewed
Strigoi Stare5.88 refChecks when viewed19.66 refChecks when viewed
The Surgeon General3.33 refChecks when viewed10.88 refChecks when viewed

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Badlands Bandido25.0%41.00 refChecks when viewed2 keys + 1.00 refChecks when viewed
Chiromancer's Kit25.0%11.77 refChecks when viewed1 key + 19.22 refChecks when viewed
Contaminated Carryall25.0%9.55 refChecks when viewed45.66 refChecks when viewed
Duality of Mantle25.0%1 key + 17.66 refChecks when viewed3 keys + 7.22 refChecks when viewed

Terrifying Trove Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost1 key + 31.17 ref
Expected value20.66 ref
Expected P/L−1 key − 10.51 ref
ROI-78.4%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputContaminated Carryall9.55 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost7 keys + 7.39 ref
Expected value1 key + 1.33 ref
Expected P/L−6 keys − 6.06 ref
ROI-85.7%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputContaminated Carryall45.77 ref each

Eligible Assassin inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Badlands Bandido41.00 refChecks when viewed2 keys + 5.77 refChecks when viewed
Chiromancer's Kit12.55 refChecks when viewed1 key + 22.88 refChecks when viewed
Contaminated Carryall9.55 refChecks when viewed45.77 refChecks when viewed
Duality of Mantle1 key + 18.88 refChecks when viewed3 keys + 11.33 refChecks when viewed

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Sear Seer100.0%20.66 refChecks when viewed1 key + 1.33 refChecks when viewed

How to trade up to Terrifying Trove Collection items

How to trade up to Delldozer

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Terrifying Trove Collection for a 16.67% chance of Delldozer, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Delldozer trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Hellish Overlord

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Terrifying Trove Collection for a 16.67% chance of Hellish Overlord, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Hellish Overlord trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Nuclear Necessity

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Terrifying Trove Collection for a 16.67% chance of Nuclear Necessity, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Nuclear Necessity trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Shadow Shroud

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Terrifying Trove Collection for a 16.67% chance of Shadow Shroud, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Shadow Shroud trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Strigoi Stare

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Terrifying Trove Collection for a 16.67% chance of Strigoi Stare, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Strigoi Stare trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Surgeon General

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Terrifying Trove Collection for a 16.67% chance of The Surgeon General, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Surgeon General trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Badlands Bandido

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Terrifying Trove Collection for a 25.00% chance of Badlands Bandido, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Badlands Bandido trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Chiromancer's Kit

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Terrifying Trove Collection for a 25.00% chance of Chiromancer's Kit, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Chiromancer's Kit trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Contaminated Carryall

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Terrifying Trove Collection for a 25.00% chance of Contaminated Carryall, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Contaminated Carryall trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Duality of Mantle

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Terrifying Trove Collection for a 25.00% chance of Duality of Mantle, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Duality of Mantle trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Sear Seer

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Terrifying Trove Collection for a 100.00% chance of Sear Seer, one of 1 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 50.00%. The ten-input single-collection recipe guarantees the item type, not its selling price or a profit; the mixed recipe does not guarantee the item.

Calculate Sear Seer trade-up odds →

How Terrifying Trove Collection odds work

With ten Terrifying Trove Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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