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TF2 collection guide · Saved market observations

Winter 2017 Collection Trade-Up Guide

Winter 2017 Collection contains 15 War Paint designs across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade item is Miami Element War Paint. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

15Items
3Routes
LoadingDataset state
Data snapshot . Loading the dataset does not recheck every listing; individual quotes can still be missing or stale.

Steam pricing is temporarily paused. Prices use backpack.tf only.

Winter 2017 Collection: choose your target tier

Start with the item you want, then choose the grade immediately below it. Winter 2017 Collection offers 3 adjacent-grade routes. Each row below assumes ten eligible inputs from this collection, with one result per contract; these are not case-opening probabilities.

10 Mercenary inputs → 1 Commando output

Choose among 8 input item names. Each of the 4 outputs has a 25.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 12.50% chance.

Commando targets

Compare Mercenary inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Commando inputs → 1 Assassin output

Choose among 4 input item names. Each of the 2 outputs has a 50.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 25.00% chance.

Assassin targets

Compare Commando inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Assassin inputs → 1 Elite output

Choose among 2 input item names. Each of the 1 outputs has a 100.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 50.00% chance.

Elite targets

Compare Assassin inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

Buying a higher-priced input in the same grade does not improve these single-collection odds. Price and quality still matter for cost: Strange and Non-Strange cannot be mixed, and this guide’s market comparison uses Factory New wear. Read the odds guide or learn how expected profit differs from a guaranteed return.

Winter 2017 War Paint Case

Container information · Series #118

Winter 2017 War Paint Case

Winter 2017 War Paint Case contains items from the Winter 2017 Collection. The case was introduced on 2017-12-20. Requires a Winter 2017 War Paint Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Winter 2017 Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary8 items

80.00%

Commando4 items

16.00%

Assassin2 items

3.20%

Elite1 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade
  • Alien Tech War Paint

    Mercenary · Chance: 10.00%

  • Bomber Soul War Paint

    Mercenary · Chance: 10.00%

  • Cabin Fevered War Paint

    Mercenary · Chance: 10.00%

  • Damascus and Mahogany War Paint

    Mercenary · Chance: 10.00%

  • Dovetailed War Paint

    Mercenary · Chance: 10.00%

  • Geometrical Teams War Paint

    Mercenary · Chance: 10.00%

  • Hazard Warning War Paint

    Mercenary · Chance: 10.00%

  • Polar Surprise War Paint

    Mercenary · Chance: 10.00%

Commando Grade
  • Cosmic Calamity War Paint

    Commando · Chance: 4.00%

  • Hana War Paint

    Commando · Chance: 4.00%

  • Neo Tokyo War Paint

    Commando · Chance: 4.00%

  • Uranium War Paint

    Commando · Chance: 4.00%

Assassin Grade
  • Jazzy War Paint

    Assassin · Chance: 1.60%

  • Mosaic War Paint

    Assassin · Chance: 1.60%

Elite Grade
  • Miami Element War Paint

    Elite · Chance: 0.80%

War Paint and decorated-weapon quotes must match both quality and wear. This guide compares Factory New only; select Minimal Wear, Field-Tested, Well-Worn or Battle Scarred in the calculator. Steam pricing is temporarily paused. Backpack.tf wear-specific coverage is limited; missing quotes remain unavailable. A collection’s output wear follows that collection’s inputs, not another collection’s wear.

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Winter 2017 Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× costIncomplete quotes
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputNo eligible quoteQuote unavailable each

Strange

strange
10× cost380 keys
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputBomber Soul War Paint38 keys each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Alien Tech War PaintSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed80 keysChecks when viewed
Bomber Soul War PaintSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed38 keysChecks when viewed
Cabin Fevered War PaintSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedNo eligible sell listingChecks when viewed
Damascus and Mahogany War PaintSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Dovetailed War PaintSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Geometrical Teams War PaintSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Hazard Warning War PaintSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Polar Surprise War PaintSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Cosmic Calamity War Paint25.0%7 keys + 8.44 refChecks when viewedBuy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed
Hana War Paint25.0%Buy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewedBuy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed
Neo Tokyo War Paint25.0%Buy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewedBuy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed
Uranium War Paint25.0%Buy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed64 keys + 0.11 refChecks when viewed

Winter 2017 Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× costIncomplete quotes
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputNo eligible quoteQuote unavailable each

Strange

strange
10× costIncomplete quotes
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputNo eligible quoteQuote unavailable each

Eligible Commando inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Cosmic Calamity War PaintNo eligible sell listingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Hana War PaintSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Neo Tokyo War PaintSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Uranium War PaintSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Jazzy War Paint50.0%45 keys + 7.11 refChecks when viewedBuy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed
Mosaic War Paint50.0%Buy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewedBuy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed

Winter 2017 Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost690 keys
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputJazzy War Paint69 keys each

Strange

strange
10× costIncomplete quotes
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputNo eligible quoteQuote unavailable each

Eligible Assassin inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Jazzy War Paint69 keysChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Mosaic War PaintSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Miami Element War Paint100.0%Buy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed666 keys + 0.11 refChecks when viewed

How to trade up to Winter 2017 Collection items

How to trade up to Cosmic Calamity War Paint

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2017 Collection for a 25.00% chance of Cosmic Calamity War Paint, one of 4 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Cosmic Calamity War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Hana War Paint

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2017 Collection for a 25.00% chance of Hana War Paint, one of 4 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Hana War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Neo Tokyo War Paint

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2017 Collection for a 25.00% chance of Neo Tokyo War Paint, one of 4 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Neo Tokyo War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Uranium War Paint

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2017 Collection for a 25.00% chance of Uranium War Paint, one of 4 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Uranium War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Jazzy War Paint

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Winter 2017 Collection for a 50.00% chance of Jazzy War Paint, one of 2 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Jazzy War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Mosaic War Paint

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Winter 2017 Collection for a 50.00% chance of Mosaic War Paint, one of 2 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Mosaic War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Miami Element War Paint

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Winter 2017 Collection for a 100.00% chance of Miami Element War Paint, one of 1 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 50.00%. The ten-input single-collection recipe guarantees the item type, not its selling price or a profit; the mixed recipe does not guarantee the item.

Calculate Miami Element War Paint trade-up odds →

How Winter 2017 Collection odds work

With ten Winter 2017 Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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