How are Winter 2017 Collection trade-up odds calculated?

In a single-collection contract, every recorded item at the next rarity has an equal chance. In a mixed contract, each input contributes ten percent probability to its collection, then that collection share is divided equally among its possible outputs.

Can Strange and non-Strange items be mixed in one TF2 trade-up?

No. A contract must use either all Strange inputs or all non-Strange inputs. This page displays both markets separately.

TF2 collection guide · Live calculator data

Winter 2017 Collection Trade-Up Guide

Winter 2017 Collection contains 15 War Paint designs across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade item is Miami Element War Paint. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

15Items

3Routes

CheckingPrice state

Data snapshot Tue, 08 Sep 2026 21:58:40 GMT

Container information · Series #118

Winter 2017 War Paint Case

Winter 2017 War Paint Case contains items from the Winter 2017 Collection. The case was introduced on 2017-12-20. Requires a Winter 2017 War Paint Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Winter 2017 Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary8 items

80.00%

Commando4 items

16.00%

Assassin2 items

3.20%

Elite1 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade

Alien Tech War Paint
Mercenary · Chance: 10.00%
Bomber Soul War Paint
Mercenary · Chance: 10.00%
Cabin Fevered War Paint
Mercenary · Chance: 10.00%
Damascus and Mahogany War Paint
Mercenary · Chance: 10.00%
Dovetailed War Paint
Mercenary · Chance: 10.00%
Geometrical Teams War Paint
Mercenary · Chance: 10.00%
Hazard Warning War Paint
Mercenary · Chance: 10.00%
Polar Surprise War Paint
Mercenary · Chance: 10.00%

Commando Grade

Cosmic Calamity War Paint
Commando · Chance: 4.00%
Hana War Paint
Commando · Chance: 4.00%
Neo Tokyo War Paint
Commando · Chance: 4.00%
Uranium War Paint
Commando · Chance: 4.00%

Assassin Grade

Jazzy War Paint
Assassin · Chance: 1.60%
Mosaic War Paint
Assassin · Chance: 1.60%

Elite Grade

Miami Element War Paint
Elite · Chance: 0.80%

War Paint and decorated-weapon quotes must match both quality and wear. This guide compares Factory New only; select Minimal Wear, Field-Tested, Well-Worn or Battle Scarred in the calculator. Steam USD is recommended because backpack.tf wear-specific coverage is limited. A collection’s output wear follows that collection’s inputs, not another collection’s wear.

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Winter 2017 Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost$71.30

Expected value$24.36

Expected P/L−$46.94

ROI-65.8%

Win chance0%

Cheapest quoted inputPolar Surprise War Paint$7.13 each

Strange

strange

10× costIncomplete quotes

Expected valueIncomplete quotes

Expected P/LIncomplete quotes

ROIIncomplete quotes

Win chanceIncomplete quotes

Cheapest quoted inputNo eligible quoteQuote unavailable each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Alien Tech War Paint	$22.63	No eligible quote
Bomber Soul War Paint	No eligible quote	No eligible quote
Cabin Fevered War Paint	No eligible quote	No eligible quote
Damascus and Mahogany War Paint	$24.00	No eligible quote
Dovetailed War Paint	No eligible quote	No eligible quote
Geometrical Teams War Paint	$20.01	No eligible quote
Hazard Warning War Paint	$18.94	No eligible quote
Polar Surprise War Paint	$7.13	No eligible quote

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid
Cosmic Calamity War Paint	25.0%	$15.57	No eligible quote
Hana War Paint	25.0%	$48.54	No eligible quote
Neo Tokyo War Paint	25.0%	$19.49	No eligible quote
Uranium War Paint	25.0%	$13.85	No eligible quote

Winter 2017 Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost$221.30

Expected valueIncomplete quotes

Expected P/LIncomplete quotes

ROIIncomplete quotes

Win chanceIncomplete quotes

Cheapest quoted inputUranium War Paint$22.13 each

Strange

strange

10× costIncomplete quotes

Expected valueIncomplete quotes

Expected P/LIncomplete quotes

ROIIncomplete quotes

Win chanceIncomplete quotes

Cheapest quoted inputNo eligible quoteQuote unavailable each

Eligible Commando inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Cosmic Calamity War Paint	$29.99	No eligible quote
Hana War Paint	$103.16	No eligible quote
Neo Tokyo War Paint	$69.00	No eligible quote
Uranium War Paint	$22.13	No eligible quote

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid	Markets
Jazzy War Paint	50.0%	No eligible quote	No eligible quote
Mosaic War Paint	50.0%	$13.42	No eligible quote

Winter 2017 Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost$243.20

Expected value$109.49

Expected P/L−$133.71

ROI-55.0%

Win chance0%

Cheapest quoted inputMosaic War Paint$24.32 each

Strange

strange

10× costIncomplete quotes

Expected valueIncomplete quotes

Expected P/LIncomplete quotes

ROIIncomplete quotes

Win chanceIncomplete quotes

Cheapest quoted inputNo eligible quoteQuote unavailable each

Eligible Assassin inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask	Markets
Jazzy War Paint	No eligible quote	No eligible quote
Mosaic War Paint	$24.32	No eligible quote

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid	Markets
Miami Element War Paint	100.0%	$109.49	No eligible quote

How to trade up to Winter 2017 Collection items

How to trade up to Cosmic Calamity War Paint

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2017 Collection for a 25.00% chance of Cosmic Calamity War Paint, one of 4 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Cosmic Calamity War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Hana War Paint

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2017 Collection for a 25.00% chance of Hana War Paint, one of 4 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Hana War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Neo Tokyo War Paint

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2017 Collection for a 25.00% chance of Neo Tokyo War Paint, one of 4 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Neo Tokyo War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Uranium War Paint

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Winter 2017 Collection for a 25.00% chance of Uranium War Paint, one of 4 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Uranium War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Jazzy War Paint

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Winter 2017 Collection for a 50.00% chance of Jazzy War Paint, one of 2 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Jazzy War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Mosaic War Paint

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Winter 2017 Collection for a 50.00% chance of Mosaic War Paint, one of 2 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Mosaic War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Miami Element War Paint

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Winter 2017 Collection for a 100.00% chance of Miami Element War Paint, one of 1 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 50.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Miami Element War Paint trade-up odds →

How Winter 2017 Collection odds work

With ten Winter 2017 Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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