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Scream Fortress XVI Collection Trade-Up Guide

Scream Fortress XVI Collection contains 12 War Paint designs across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade item is Broken Record War Paint. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

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Scream Fortress XVI War Paint Case

Container information · Series #146

Scream Fortress XVI War Paint Case

Scream Fortress XVI War Paint Case contains items from the Scream Fortress XVI Collection. The case was introduced on 2024-10-07. Requires a Scream Fortress XVI War Paint Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Scream Fortress XVI Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary6 items

80.00%

Commando3 items

16.00%

Assassin2 items

3.20%

Elite1 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade
  • Blackout War Paint

    Mercenary · Chance: 13.33%

  • Brawler's Iron War Paint

    Mercenary · Chance: 13.33%

  • Gobi Glazed War Paint

    Mercenary · Chance: 13.33%

  • Sleek Greek War Paint

    Mercenary · Chance: 13.33%

  • Team Charged War Paint

    Mercenary · Chance: 13.33%

  • Team Detail War Paint

    Mercenary · Chance: 13.33%

Commando Grade
  • Graphite Gripped War Paint

    Commando · Chance: 5.33%

  • Piranha Mania War Paint

    Commando · Chance: 5.33%

  • Stealth Specialist War Paint

    Commando · Chance: 5.33%

Assassin Grade
  • Necropolish War Paint

    Assassin · Chance: 1.60%

  • Stardust War Paint

    Assassin · Chance: 1.60%

Elite Grade
  • Broken Record War Paint

    Elite · Chance: 0.80%

War Paint and decorated-weapon quotes must match both quality and wear. This guide compares Factory New only; select Minimal Wear, Field-Tested, Well-Worn or Battle Scarred in the calculator. Steam USD is recommended because backpack.tf wear-specific coverage is limited. A collection’s output wear follows that collection’s inputs, not another collection’s wear.

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Scream Fortress XVI Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost$4.20
Expected value$1.63
Expected P/L−$2.57
ROI-61.3%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputSleek Greek War Paint$0.42 each

Strange

strange
10× cost$69.00
Expected value$24.52
Expected P/L−$44.48
ROI-64.5%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputTeam Charged War Paint$6.90 each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Blackout War Paint$3.83$59.52
Brawler's Iron War Paint$0.93$17.65
Gobi Glazed War Paint$1.08$38.69
Sleek Greek War Paint$0.42$8.05
Team Charged War Paint$0.47$6.90
Team Detail War Paint$3.92$46.49

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Graphite Gripped War Paint33.3%$2.79$33.72
Piranha Mania War Paint33.3%$0.50$9.40
Stealth Specialist War Paint33.3%$1.59$30.43

Scream Fortress XVI Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost$8.40
Expected value$5.44
Expected P/L−$2.96
ROI-35.2%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputPiranha Mania War Paint$0.84 each

Strange

strange
10× cost$149.20
Expected value$59.41
Expected P/L−$89.79
ROI-60.2%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputPiranha Mania War Paint$14.92 each

Eligible Commando inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Graphite Gripped War Paint$4.48$93.77
Piranha Mania War Paint$0.84$14.92
Stealth Specialist War Paint$2.25$43.47

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Necropolish War Paint50.0%$2.49$32.70
Stardust War Paint50.0%$8.39$86.11

Scream Fortress XVI Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost$30.00
Expected value$26.70
Expected P/L−$3.30
ROI-11.0%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputNecropolish War Paint$3.00 each

Strange

strange
10× cost$479.70
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputNecropolish War Paint$47.97 each

Eligible Assassin inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Necropolish War Paint$3.00$47.97
Stardust War Paint$15.11$130.00

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Broken Record War Paint100.0%$26.70No eligible quote

How to trade up to Scream Fortress XVI Collection items

How to trade up to Graphite Gripped War Paint

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Scream Fortress XVI Collection for a 33.33% chance of Graphite Gripped War Paint, one of 3 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Graphite Gripped War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Piranha Mania War Paint

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Scream Fortress XVI Collection for a 33.33% chance of Piranha Mania War Paint, one of 3 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Piranha Mania War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Stealth Specialist War Paint

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Scream Fortress XVI Collection for a 33.33% chance of Stealth Specialist War Paint, one of 3 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Stealth Specialist War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Necropolish War Paint

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Scream Fortress XVI Collection for a 50.00% chance of Necropolish War Paint, one of 2 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Necropolish War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Stardust War Paint

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Scream Fortress XVI Collection for a 50.00% chance of Stardust War Paint, one of 2 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Stardust War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Broken Record War Paint

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Scream Fortress XVI Collection for a 100.00% chance of Broken Record War Paint, one of 1 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 50.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Broken Record War Paint trade-up odds →

How Scream Fortress XVI Collection odds work

With ten Scream Fortress XVI Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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