T2TF2TradeUps.comOpen calculator

TF2 collection guide · Saved market observations

Scream Fortress XVI Collection Trade-Up Guide

Scream Fortress XVI Collection contains 12 War Paint designs across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade item is Broken Record War Paint. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

12Items
3Routes
LoadingDataset state
Data snapshot . Loading the dataset does not recheck every listing; individual quotes can still be missing or stale.

Steam pricing is temporarily paused. Prices use backpack.tf only.

Scream Fortress XVI Collection: choose your target tier

Start with the item you want, then choose the grade immediately below it. Scream Fortress XVI Collection offers 3 adjacent-grade routes. Each row below assumes ten eligible inputs from this collection, with one result per contract; these are not case-opening probabilities.

10 Mercenary inputs → 1 Commando output

Choose among 6 input item names. Each of the 3 outputs has a 33.33% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 16.67% chance.

Commando targets

Compare Mercenary inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Commando inputs → 1 Assassin output

Choose among 3 input item names. Each of the 2 outputs has a 50.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 25.00% chance.

Assassin targets

Compare Commando inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Assassin inputs → 1 Elite output

Choose among 2 input item names. Each of the 1 outputs has a 100.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 50.00% chance.

Elite targets

Compare Assassin inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

Buying a higher-priced input in the same grade does not improve these single-collection odds. Price and quality still matter for cost: Strange and Non-Strange cannot be mixed, and this guide’s market comparison uses Factory New wear. Read the odds guide or learn how expected profit differs from a guaranteed return.

Scream Fortress XVI War Paint Case

Container information · Series #146

Scream Fortress XVI War Paint Case

Scream Fortress XVI War Paint Case contains items from the Scream Fortress XVI Collection. The case was introduced on 2024-10-07. Requires a Scream Fortress XVI War Paint Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Scream Fortress XVI Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary6 items

80.00%

Commando3 items

16.00%

Assassin2 items

3.20%

Elite1 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade
  • Blackout War Paint

    Mercenary · Chance: 13.33%

  • Brawler's Iron War Paint

    Mercenary · Chance: 13.33%

  • Gobi Glazed War Paint

    Mercenary · Chance: 13.33%

  • Sleek Greek War Paint

    Mercenary · Chance: 13.33%

  • Team Charged War Paint

    Mercenary · Chance: 13.33%

  • Team Detail War Paint

    Mercenary · Chance: 13.33%

Commando Grade
  • Graphite Gripped War Paint

    Commando · Chance: 5.33%

  • Piranha Mania War Paint

    Commando · Chance: 5.33%

  • Stealth Specialist War Paint

    Commando · Chance: 5.33%

Assassin Grade
  • Necropolish War Paint

    Assassin · Chance: 1.60%

  • Stardust War Paint

    Assassin · Chance: 1.60%

Elite Grade
  • Broken Record War Paint

    Elite · Chance: 0.80%

War Paint and decorated-weapon quotes must match both quality and wear. This guide compares Factory New only; select Minimal Wear, Field-Tested, Well-Worn or Battle Scarred in the calculator. Steam pricing is temporarily paused. Backpack.tf wear-specific coverage is limited; missing quotes remain unavailable. A collection’s output wear follows that collection’s inputs, not another collection’s wear.

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Scream Fortress XVI Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost1 key + 26.77 ref
Expected value32.18 ref
Expected P/L−58.92 ref
ROI-64.7%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputSleek Greek War Paint9.11 ref each

Strange

strange
10× costIncomplete quotes
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputNo eligible quoteQuote unavailable each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Blackout War Paint2 keys + 20.00 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Brawler's Iron War Paint20.77 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Gobi Glazed War PaintSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Sleek Greek War Paint9.11 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Team Charged War PaintSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Team Detail War PaintSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Graphite Gripped War Paint33.3%53.00 refChecks when viewedBuy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed
Piranha Mania War Paint33.3%12.33 refChecks when viewed4 keys + 4.00 refChecks when viewed
Stealth Specialist War Paint33.3%31.22 refChecks when viewedBuy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed

Scream Fortress XVI Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost4 keys + 1.48 ref
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputPiranha Mania War Paint25.88 ref each

Strange

strange
10× costIncomplete quotes
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputNo eligible quoteQuote unavailable each

Eligible Commando inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Graphite Gripped War PaintNo eligible sell listingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Piranha Mania War Paint25.88 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Stealth Specialist War Paint1 key + 14.00 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Necropolish War Paint50.0%Buy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewedBuy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed
Stardust War Paint50.0%3 keys + 31.00 refChecks when viewedBuy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed

Scream Fortress XVI Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost62 keys + 5.74 ref
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputStardust War Paint6 keys + 13.44 ref each

Strange

strange
10× costIncomplete quotes
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputNo eligible quoteQuote unavailable each

Eligible Assassin inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Necropolish War PaintSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Stardust War Paint6 keys + 13.44 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Broken Record War Paint100.0%Buy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed200 keys + 0.55 refChecks when viewed

How to trade up to Scream Fortress XVI Collection items

How to trade up to Graphite Gripped War Paint

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Scream Fortress XVI Collection for a 33.33% chance of Graphite Gripped War Paint, one of 3 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Graphite Gripped War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Piranha Mania War Paint

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Scream Fortress XVI Collection for a 33.33% chance of Piranha Mania War Paint, one of 3 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Piranha Mania War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Stealth Specialist War Paint

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Scream Fortress XVI Collection for a 33.33% chance of Stealth Specialist War Paint, one of 3 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Stealth Specialist War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Necropolish War Paint

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Scream Fortress XVI Collection for a 50.00% chance of Necropolish War Paint, one of 2 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Necropolish War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Stardust War Paint

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Scream Fortress XVI Collection for a 50.00% chance of Stardust War Paint, one of 2 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Stardust War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Broken Record War Paint

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Scream Fortress XVI Collection for a 100.00% chance of Broken Record War Paint, one of 1 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 50.00%. The ten-input single-collection recipe guarantees the item type, not its selling price or a profit; the mixed recipe does not guarantee the item.

Calculate Broken Record War Paint trade-up odds →

How Scream Fortress XVI Collection odds work

With ten Scream Fortress XVI Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

Explore related TF2 collections

Contract Campaigner CollectionContract Campaigner Collection items & trade-up odds →Decorated War Hero CollectionDecorated War Hero Collection items & trade-up odds →Infernal Reward War Paint CaseInfernal Reward Collection items & trade-up odds →Jungle Jackpot War Paint CaseJungle Jackpot Collection items & trade-up odds →
Browse every TF2 collection

Anonymous action totals help improve this site. No visitor IDs are attached to those totals. Privacy details