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TF2 collection guide · Saved market observations

Gun Mettle Cosmetics Collection Trade-Up Guide

Gun Mettle Cosmetics Collection contains 16 items across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade items include Captain Cardbeard Cutthroat, Potassium Bonnet. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

16Items
3Routes
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Gun Mettle Cosmetics Collection: choose your target tier

Start with the item you want, then choose the grade immediately below it. Gun Mettle Cosmetics Collection offers 3 adjacent-grade routes. Each row below assumes ten eligible inputs from this collection, with one result per contract; these are not case-opening probabilities.

10 Mercenary inputs → 1 Commando output

Choose among 7 input item names. Each of the 4 outputs has a 25.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 12.50% chance.

Commando targets

Compare Mercenary inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Commando inputs → 1 Assassin output

Choose among 4 input item names. Each of the 3 outputs has a 33.33% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 16.67% chance.

Assassin targets

Compare Commando inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Assassin inputs → 1 Elite output

Choose among 3 input item names. Each of the 2 outputs has a 50.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 25.00% chance.

Elite targets

Compare Assassin inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

Buying a higher-priced input in the same grade does not improve these single-collection odds. Price and quality still matter for cost: Strange and Non-Strange cannot be mixed. Read the odds guide or learn how expected profit differs from a guaranteed return.

Gun Mettle Cosmetic Case

Container information · Series #95

Gun Mettle Cosmetic Case

Gun Mettle Cosmetic Case contains items from the Gun Mettle Cosmetics Collection. The case was introduced on 2015-08-26. Requires a Gun Mettle Cosmetic Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Gun Mettle Cosmetics Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary7 items

80.00%

Commando4 items

16.00%

Assassin3 items

3.20%

Elite2 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade
  • Commissar's Coat

    Mercenary · Chance: 11.43%

  • Flak Jack

    Mercenary · Chance: 11.43%

  • Lurker's Leathers

    Mercenary · Chance: 11.43%

  • Support Spurs

    Mercenary · Chance: 11.43%

  • The Rotation Sensation

    Mercenary · Chance: 11.43%

  • The Vascular Vestment

    Mercenary · Chance: 11.43%

  • Wild West Waistcoat

    Mercenary · Chance: 11.43%

Commando Grade
  • Fortunate Son

    Commando · Chance: 4.00%

  • Outta' Sight

    Commando · Chance: 4.00%

  • The Physician's Protector

    Commando · Chance: 4.00%

  • White Russian

    Commando · Chance: 4.00%

Assassin Grade
  • Bruce's Bonnet

    Assassin · Chance: 1.07%

  • El Duderino

    Assassin · Chance: 1.07%

  • Sheriff's Stetson

    Assassin · Chance: 1.07%

Elite Grade
  • Captain Cardbeard Cutthroat

    Elite · Chance: 0.40%

  • Potassium Bonnet

    Elite · Chance: 0.40%

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Gun Mettle Cosmetics Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost2 keys + 4.64 ref
Expected value61.69 ref
Expected P/L−1 key − 7.28 ref
ROI-53.7%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputWild West Waistcoat13.33 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost3 keys + 60.31 ref
Expected value2 keys + 5.58 ref
Expected P/L−1 key − 54.73 ref
ROI-47.0%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputWild West Waistcoat25.33 ref each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Commissar's Coat59.66 refChecks when viewed1 key + 50.44 refChecks when viewed
Flak Jack37.44 refChecks when viewed57.55 refChecks when viewed
Lurker's Leathers15.66 refChecks when viewed43.55 refChecks when viewed
Support Spurs32.55 refChecks when viewed1 key + 9.77 refChecks when viewed
The Rotation SensationSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed35.77 refChecks when viewed
The Vascular Vestment15.11 refChecks when viewed29.88 refChecks when viewed
Wild West Waistcoat13.33 refChecks when viewed25.33 refChecks when viewed

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Fortunate Son25.0%1 key + 51.88 refChecks when viewed2 keys + 39.88 refChecks when viewed
Outta' Sight25.0%29.33 refChecks when viewed1 key + 43.66 refChecks when viewed
The Physician's Protector25.0%29.22 refChecks when viewed1 key + 22.44 refChecks when viewed
White Russian25.0%1 key + 7.66 refChecks when viewed2 keys + 45.00 refChecks when viewed

Gun Mettle Cosmetics Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost4 keys + 37.08 ref
Expected value4 keys + 15.48 ref
Expected P/L−21.60 ref
ROI-7.3%
Win chance33%
Cheapest quoted inputThe Physician's Protector29.44 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost17 keys + 27.39 ref
Expected value14 keys + 22.15 ref
Expected P/L−3 keys − 5.24 ref
ROI-17.7%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputOutta' Sight1 key + 47.77 ref each

Eligible Commando inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Fortunate Son1 key + 51.88 refChecks when viewed2 keys + 41.88 refChecks when viewed
Outta' Sight29.66 refChecks when viewed1 key + 47.77 refChecks when viewed
The Physician's Protector29.44 refChecks when viewed30 keysChecks when viewed
White Russian1 key + 10.88 refChecks when viewed2 keys + 48.00 refChecks when viewed

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Bruce's Bonnet33.3%4 keys + 2.44 refChecks when viewed14 keys + 47.44 refChecks when viewed
El Duderino33.3%5 keys + 11.00 refChecks when viewed15 keys + 7.00 refChecks when viewed
Sheriff's Stetson33.3%3 keys + 33.00 refChecks when viewed13 keys + 12.00 refChecks when viewed

Gun Mettle Cosmetics Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost36 keys + 6.22 ref
Expected value26 keys + 3.56 ref
Expected P/L−10 keys − 2.67 ref
ROI-27.8%
Win chance50%
Cheapest quoted inputSheriff's Stetson3 keys + 39.22 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost146 keys + 48.42 ref
Expected value88 keys + 62.16 ref
Expected P/L−57 keys − 50.59 ref
ROI-39.4%
Win chance50%
Cheapest quoted inputSheriff's Stetson14 keys + 43.44 ref each

Eligible Assassin inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Bruce's Bonnet4 keys + 10.00 refChecks when viewed19 keys + 60.33 refChecks when viewed
El Duderino5 keys + 20.77 refChecks when viewed16 keys + 54.22 refChecks when viewed
Sheriff's Stetson3 keys + 39.22 refChecks when viewed14 keys + 43.44 refChecks when viewed

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Captain Cardbeard Cutthroat50.0%3 keys + 38.44 refChecks when viewed17 keys + 57.33 refChecks when viewed
Potassium Bonnet50.0%48 keys + 33.00 refChecks when viewed160 keys + 2.66 refChecks when viewed

How to trade up to Gun Mettle Cosmetics Collection items

How to trade up to Fortunate Son

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Gun Mettle Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of Fortunate Son, one of 4 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Fortunate Son trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Outta' Sight

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Gun Mettle Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of Outta' Sight, one of 4 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Outta' Sight trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Physician's Protector

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Gun Mettle Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of The Physician's Protector, one of 4 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Physician's Protector trade-up odds →

How to trade up to White Russian

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Gun Mettle Cosmetics Collection for a 25.00% chance of White Russian, one of 4 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate White Russian trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Bruce's Bonnet

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Gun Mettle Cosmetics Collection for a 33.33% chance of Bruce's Bonnet, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Bruce's Bonnet trade-up odds →

How to trade up to El Duderino

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Gun Mettle Cosmetics Collection for a 33.33% chance of El Duderino, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate El Duderino trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Sheriff's Stetson

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Gun Mettle Cosmetics Collection for a 33.33% chance of Sheriff's Stetson, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Sheriff's Stetson trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Captain Cardbeard Cutthroat

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Gun Mettle Cosmetics Collection for a 50.00% chance of Captain Cardbeard Cutthroat, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Captain Cardbeard Cutthroat trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Potassium Bonnet

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Gun Mettle Cosmetics Collection for a 50.00% chance of Potassium Bonnet, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Potassium Bonnet trade-up odds →

How Gun Mettle Cosmetics Collection odds work

With ten Gun Mettle Cosmetics Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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