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TF2 collection guide · Saved market observations

Creepy Crawly Collection Trade-Up Guide

Creepy Crawly Collection contains 21 items across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade items include Class Crown, Combustible Cutie. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

21Items
3Routes
LoadingDataset state
Data snapshot . Loading the dataset does not recheck every listing; individual quotes can still be missing or stale.

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Creepy Crawly Collection: choose your target tier

Start with the item you want, then choose the grade immediately below it. Creepy Crawly Collection offers 3 adjacent-grade routes. Each row below assumes ten eligible inputs from this collection, with one result per contract; these are not case-opening probabilities.

10 Mercenary inputs → 1 Commando output

Choose among 10 input item names. Each of the 6 outputs has a 16.67% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 8.33% chance.

Commando targets

Compare Mercenary inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Commando inputs → 1 Assassin output

Choose among 6 input item names. Each of the 3 outputs has a 33.33% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 16.67% chance.

Assassin targets

Compare Commando inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Assassin inputs → 1 Elite output

Choose among 3 input item names. Each of the 2 outputs has a 50.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 25.00% chance.

Elite targets

Compare Assassin inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

Buying a higher-priced input in the same grade does not improve these single-collection odds. Price and quality still matter for cost: Strange and Non-Strange cannot be mixed. Read the odds guide or learn how expected profit differs from a guaranteed return.

Creepy Crawly Case

Container information · Series #104

Creepy Crawly Case

Creepy Crawly Case contains items from the Creepy Crawly Collection. The case was introduced on 2016-10-19. Requires a Creepy Crawly Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Creepy Crawly Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary10 items

80.00%

Commando6 items

16.00%

Assassin3 items

3.20%

Elite2 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade
  • Colossal Cranium

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Mad Mask

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Nasty Norsemann

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Showstopper

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Spooktacles

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • The Cranial Carcharodon

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • The El Paso Poncho

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • The Surgeon's Sidearms

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • The Wide-Brimmed Bandito

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • The Wing Mann

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

Commando Grade
  • Big Topper

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

  • Heavy Tourism

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

  • Lil' Bitey

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

  • Spirit of the Bombing Past

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

  • The Corpus Christi Cranium

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

  • The Toadstool Topper

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

Assassin Grade
  • Burly Beast

    Assassin · Chance: 1.07%

  • Mo'Horn

    Assassin · Chance: 1.07%

  • Pestering Jester

    Assassin · Chance: 1.07%

Elite Grade
  • Class Crown

    Elite · Chance: 0.40%

  • Combustible Cutie

    Elite · Chance: 0.40%

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Creepy Crawly Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost2 keys + 55.74 ref
Expected value2 keys + 55.24 ref
Expected P/L−0.50 ref
ROI-0.3%
Win chance50%
Cheapest quoted inputThe El Paso Poncho18.44 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost6 keys + 29.52 ref
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputThe El Paso Poncho41.55 ref each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Colossal Cranium29.88 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Mad MaskSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed1 key + 26.00 refChecks when viewed
Nasty NorsemannSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed50.33 refChecks when viewed
ShowstopperSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed58.66 refChecks when viewed
Spooktacles25.44 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
The Cranial CarcharodonSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed1 key + 9.66 refChecks when viewed
The El Paso Poncho18.44 refChecks when viewed41.55 refChecks when viewed
The Surgeon's SidearmsSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed51.55 refChecks when viewed
The Wide-Brimmed Bandito19.22 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
The Wing MannSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed48.44 refChecks when viewed

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Big Topper16.7%2 keys + 44.22 refChecks when viewed6 keys + 51.33 refChecks when viewed
Heavy Tourism16.7%3 keys + 15.22 refChecks when viewed6 keys + 55.55 refChecks when viewed
Lil' Bitey16.7%3 keys + 1.11 refChecks when viewedBuy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed
Spirit of the Bombing Past16.7%2 keys + 43.33 refChecks when viewed7 keys + 13.44 refChecks when viewed
The Corpus Christi Cranium16.7%2 keys + 39.88 refChecks when viewed6 keysChecks when viewed
The Toadstool Topper16.7%2 keys + 59.00 refChecks when viewed3 keys + 38.00 refChecks when viewed

Creepy Crawly Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost27 keys + 59.69 ref
Expected value22 keys + 30.29 ref
Expected P/L−5 keys − 29.40 ref
ROI-19.5%
Win chance33%
Cheapest quoted inputSpirit of the Bombing Past2 keys + 51.00 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost80 keys + 53.30 ref
Expected value41 keys + 13.96 ref
Expected P/L−39 keys − 39.34 ref
ROI-49.0%
Win chance33%
Cheapest quoted inputHeavy Tourism8 keys + 5.33 ref each

Eligible Commando inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Big TopperSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Heavy Tourism3 keys + 19.00 refChecks when viewed8 keys + 5.33 refChecks when viewed
Lil' Bitey3 keys + 1.22 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Spirit of the Bombing Past2 keys + 51.00 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
The Corpus Christi Cranium3 keys + 4.00 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
The Toadstool Topper2 keys + 62.00 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Burly Beast33.3%58 keys + 5.33 refChecks when viewed106 keys + 30.00 refChecks when viewed
Mo'Horn33.3%2 keys + 26.88 refChecks when viewed5 keys + 63.66 refChecks when viewed
Pestering Jester33.3%6 keys + 58.66 refChecks when viewed11 keys + 12.55 refChecks when viewed

Creepy Crawly Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost24 keys + 27.08 ref
Expected value20 keys + 12.28 ref
Expected P/L−4 keys − 14.80 ref
ROI-17.3%
Win chance50%
Cheapest quoted inputMo'Horn2 keys + 28.44 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost60 keys + 60.00 ref
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputMo'Horn6 keys + 6.00 ref each

Eligible Assassin inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Burly Beast58 keys + 42.88 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Mo'Horn2 keys + 28.44 refChecks when viewed6 keys + 6.00 refChecks when viewed
Pestering Jester8 keys + 16.77 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Class Crown50.0%7 keys + 28.33 refChecks when viewed19 keys + 5.22 refChecks when viewed
Combustible Cutie50.0%32 keys + 60.55 refChecks when viewedBuy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed

How to trade up to Creepy Crawly Collection items

How to trade up to Big Topper

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Creepy Crawly Collection for a 16.67% chance of Big Topper, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Big Topper trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Heavy Tourism

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Creepy Crawly Collection for a 16.67% chance of Heavy Tourism, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Heavy Tourism trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Lil' Bitey

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Creepy Crawly Collection for a 16.67% chance of Lil' Bitey, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Lil' Bitey trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Spirit of the Bombing Past

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Creepy Crawly Collection for a 16.67% chance of Spirit of the Bombing Past, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Spirit of the Bombing Past trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Corpus Christi Cranium

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Creepy Crawly Collection for a 16.67% chance of The Corpus Christi Cranium, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Corpus Christi Cranium trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Toadstool Topper

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Creepy Crawly Collection for a 16.67% chance of The Toadstool Topper, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Toadstool Topper trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Burly Beast

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Creepy Crawly Collection for a 33.33% chance of Burly Beast, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Burly Beast trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Mo'Horn

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Creepy Crawly Collection for a 33.33% chance of Mo'Horn, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Mo'Horn trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Pestering Jester

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Creepy Crawly Collection for a 33.33% chance of Pestering Jester, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Pestering Jester trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Class Crown

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Creepy Crawly Collection for a 50.00% chance of Class Crown, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Class Crown trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Combustible Cutie

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Creepy Crawly Collection for a 50.00% chance of Combustible Cutie, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Combustible Cutie trade-up odds →

How Creepy Crawly Collection odds work

With ten Creepy Crawly Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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