How are Summer 2026 Collection trade-up odds calculated?

In a single-collection contract, every recorded item at the next rarity has an equal chance. In a mixed contract, each input contributes ten percent probability to its collection, then that collection share is divided equally among its possible outputs.

Can Strange and non-Strange items be mixed in one TF2 trade-up?

No. A contract must use either all Strange inputs or all non-Strange inputs. This page displays both markets separately.

TF2 collection guide · Live calculator data

Summer 2026 Collection Trade-Up Guide

Summer 2026 Collection contains 10 War Paint designs across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade item is Team Union War Paint. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

10Items

3Routes

CheckingPrice state

Data snapshot Tue, 08 Sep 2026 21:59:56 GMT

Container information · Series #152

Summer 2026 War Paint Case

Summer 2026 War Paint Case contains items from the Summer 2026 Collection. The case was introduced on 2026-06-25. Requires a Summer 2026 War Paint Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Summer 2026 Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary4 items

80.00%

Commando3 items

16.00%

Assassin2 items

3.20%

Elite1 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade

Army Guns War Paint
Mercenary · Chance: 20.00%
Beachy Boy War Paint
Mercenary · Chance: 20.00%
Ocean Mapped War Paint
Mercenary · Chance: 20.00%
Sideshow War Paint
Mercenary · Chance: 20.00%

Commando Grade

Die'n Dasher War Paint
Commando · Chance: 5.33%
Krak-coated War Paint
Commando · Chance: 5.33%
Sandwich Diner War Paint
Commando · Chance: 5.33%

Assassin Grade

Storage War War Paint
Assassin · Chance: 1.60%
Taxi Cabbed War Paint
Assassin · Chance: 1.60%

Elite Grade

Team Union War Paint
Elite · Chance: 0.80%

War Paint and decorated-weapon quotes must match both quality and wear. This guide compares Factory New only; select Minimal Wear, Field-Tested, Well-Worn or Battle Scarred in the calculator. Steam USD is recommended because backpack.tf wear-specific coverage is limited. A collection’s output wear follows that collection’s inputs, not another collection’s wear.

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Summer 2026 Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost$1.90

Expected valueIncomplete quotes

Expected P/LIncomplete quotes

ROIIncomplete quotes

Win chanceIncomplete quotes

Cheapest quoted inputBeachy Boy War Paint$0.19 each

Strange

strange

10× cost$46.10

Expected valueIncomplete quotes

Expected P/LIncomplete quotes

ROIIncomplete quotes

Win chanceIncomplete quotes

Cheapest quoted inputBeachy Boy War Paint$4.61 each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Army Guns War Paint	$0.37	$8.16
Beachy Boy War Paint	$0.19	$4.61
Ocean Mapped War Paint	$0.34	$12.43
Sideshow War Paint	No eligible quote	No eligible quote

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid
Die'n Dasher War Paint	33.3%	No eligible quote	No eligible quote
Krak-coated War Paint	33.3%	No eligible quote	No eligible quote
Sandwich Diner War Paint	33.3%	$0.45	$15.92

Summer 2026 Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost$13.50

Expected value$2.12

Expected P/L−$11.38

ROI-84.3%

Win chance0%

Cheapest quoted inputSandwich Diner War Paint$1.35 each

Strange

strange

10× cost$237.50

Expected value$53.92

Expected P/L−$183.58

ROI-77.3%

Win chance0%

Cheapest quoted inputSandwich Diner War Paint$23.75 each

Eligible Commando inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask
Die'n Dasher War Paint	No eligible quote	No eligible quote
Krak-coated War Paint	No eligible quote	No eligible quote
Sandwich Diner War Paint	$1.35	$23.75

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid	Markets
Storage War War Paint	50.0%	$1.88	$39.14
Taxi Cabbed War Paint	50.0%	$2.36	$68.70

Summer 2026 Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-Strange Load Strange

Non-Strange

unique

10× cost$33.00

Expected value$23.40

Expected P/L−$9.60

ROI-29.1%

Win chance0%

Cheapest quoted inputTaxi Cabbed War Paint$3.30 each

Strange

strange

10× cost$550.00

Expected value$258.48

Expected P/L−$291.52

ROI-53.0%

Win chance0%

Cheapest quoted inputStorage War War Paint$55.00 each

Eligible Assassin inputs

Item	Non-Strange ask	Strange ask	Markets
Storage War War Paint	$3.42	$55.00
Taxi Cabbed War Paint	$3.30	$106.95

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

Item	Odds	Non-Strange bid	Strange bid	Markets
Team Union War Paint	100.0%	$23.40	$258.48

How to trade up to Summer 2026 Collection items

How to trade up to Die'n Dasher War Paint

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2026 Collection for a 33.33% chance of Die'n Dasher War Paint, one of 3 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Die'n Dasher War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Krak-coated War Paint

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2026 Collection for a 33.33% chance of Krak-coated War Paint, one of 3 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Krak-coated War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Sandwich Diner War Paint

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2026 Collection for a 33.33% chance of Sandwich Diner War Paint, one of 3 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Sandwich Diner War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Storage War War Paint

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Summer 2026 Collection for a 50.00% chance of Storage War War Paint, one of 2 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Storage War War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Taxi Cabbed War Paint

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Summer 2026 Collection for a 50.00% chance of Taxi Cabbed War Paint, one of 2 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Taxi Cabbed War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Team Union War Paint

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Summer 2026 Collection for a 100.00% chance of Team Union War Paint, one of 1 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 50.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Team Union War Paint trade-up odds →

How Summer 2026 Collection odds work

With ten Summer 2026 Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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