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TF2 collection guide · Saved market observations

Summer 2026 Collection Trade-Up Guide

Summer 2026 Collection contains 10 War Paint designs across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade item is Team Union War Paint. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

10Items
3Routes
LoadingDataset state
Data snapshot . Loading the dataset does not recheck every listing; individual quotes can still be missing or stale.

Steam pricing is temporarily paused. Prices use backpack.tf only.

Summer 2026 Collection: choose your target tier

Start with the item you want, then choose the grade immediately below it. Summer 2026 Collection offers 3 adjacent-grade routes. Each row below assumes ten eligible inputs from this collection, with one result per contract; these are not case-opening probabilities.

10 Mercenary inputs → 1 Commando output

Choose among 4 input item names. Each of the 3 outputs has a 33.33% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 16.67% chance.

Commando targets

Compare Mercenary inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Commando inputs → 1 Assassin output

Choose among 3 input item names. Each of the 2 outputs has a 50.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 25.00% chance.

Assassin targets

Compare Commando inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Assassin inputs → 1 Elite output

Choose among 2 input item names. Each of the 1 outputs has a 100.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 50.00% chance.

Elite targets

Compare Assassin inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

Buying a higher-priced input in the same grade does not improve these single-collection odds. Price and quality still matter for cost: Strange and Non-Strange cannot be mixed, and this guide’s market comparison uses Factory New wear. Read the odds guide or learn how expected profit differs from a guaranteed return.

Summer 2026 War Paint Case

Container information · Series #152

Summer 2026 War Paint Case

Summer 2026 War Paint Case contains items from the Summer 2026 Collection. The case was introduced on 2026-06-25. Requires a Summer 2026 War Paint Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Summer 2026 Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary4 items

80.00%

Commando3 items

16.00%

Assassin2 items

3.20%

Elite1 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade
  • Army Guns War Paint

    Mercenary · Chance: 20.00%

  • Beachy Boy War Paint

    Mercenary · Chance: 20.00%

  • Ocean Mapped War Paint

    Mercenary · Chance: 20.00%

  • Sideshow War Paint

    Mercenary · Chance: 20.00%

Commando Grade
  • Die'n Dasher War Paint

    Commando · Chance: 5.33%

  • Krak-coated War Paint

    Commando · Chance: 5.33%

  • Sandwich Diner War Paint

    Commando · Chance: 5.33%

Assassin Grade
  • Storage War War Paint

    Assassin · Chance: 1.60%

  • Taxi Cabbed War Paint

    Assassin · Chance: 1.60%

Elite Grade
  • Team Union War Paint

    Elite · Chance: 0.80%

War Paint and decorated-weapon quotes must match both quality and wear. This guide compares Factory New only; select Minimal Wear, Field-Tested, Well-Worn or Battle Scarred in the calculator. Steam pricing is temporarily paused. Backpack.tf wear-specific coverage is limited; missing quotes remain unavailable. A collection’s output wear follows that collection’s inputs, not another collection’s wear.

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Summer 2026 Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost1 key + 55.67 ref
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputArmy Guns War Paint12.00 ref each

Strange

strange
10× costIncomplete quotes
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputNo eligible quoteQuote unavailable each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Army Guns War Paint12.00 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Beachy Boy War PaintSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Ocean Mapped War PaintSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Sideshow War PaintSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Die'n Dasher War Paint33.3%Buy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewedBuy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed
Krak-coated War Paint33.3%Buy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewedBuy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed
Sandwich Diner War Paint33.3%Buy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewedBuy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed

Summer 2026 Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× costIncomplete quotes
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputNo eligible quoteQuote unavailable each

Strange

strange
10× costIncomplete quotes
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputNo eligible quoteQuote unavailable each

Eligible Commando inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Die'n Dasher War PaintSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Krak-coated War PaintSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Sandwich Diner War PaintSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Storage War War Paint50.0%Buy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewedBuy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed
Taxi Cabbed War Paint50.0%Buy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewedBuy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed

Summer 2026 Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× costIncomplete quotes
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputNo eligible quoteQuote unavailable each

Strange

strange
10× costIncomplete quotes
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputNo eligible quoteQuote unavailable each

Eligible Assassin inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Storage War War PaintSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Taxi Cabbed War PaintSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Team Union War Paint100.0%Buy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewedBuy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed

How to trade up to Summer 2026 Collection items

How to trade up to Die'n Dasher War Paint

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2026 Collection for a 33.33% chance of Die'n Dasher War Paint, one of 3 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Die'n Dasher War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Krak-coated War Paint

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2026 Collection for a 33.33% chance of Krak-coated War Paint, one of 3 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Krak-coated War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Sandwich Diner War Paint

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Summer 2026 Collection for a 33.33% chance of Sandwich Diner War Paint, one of 3 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Sandwich Diner War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Storage War War Paint

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Summer 2026 Collection for a 50.00% chance of Storage War War Paint, one of 2 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Storage War War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Taxi Cabbed War Paint

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Summer 2026 Collection for a 50.00% chance of Taxi Cabbed War Paint, one of 2 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Taxi Cabbed War Paint trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Team Union War Paint

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Summer 2026 Collection for a 100.00% chance of Team Union War Paint, one of 1 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 50.00%. The ten-input single-collection recipe guarantees the item type, not its selling price or a profit; the mixed recipe does not guarantee the item.

Calculate Team Union War Paint trade-up odds →

How Summer 2026 Collection odds work

With ten Summer 2026 Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

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