T2TF2TradeUps.comOpen calculator

TF2 collection guide · Saved market observations

Wicked Windfall Collection Trade-Up Guide

Wicked Windfall Collection contains 22 items across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade items include All Hallows' Hatte, Balloonicorpse. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

22Items
3Routes
LoadingDataset state
Data snapshot . Loading the dataset does not recheck every listing; individual quotes can still be missing or stale.

Steam pricing is temporarily paused. Prices use backpack.tf only.

Wicked Windfall Collection: choose your target tier

Start with the item you want, then choose the grade immediately below it. Wicked Windfall Collection offers 3 adjacent-grade routes. Each row below assumes ten eligible inputs from this collection, with one result per contract; these are not case-opening probabilities.

10 Mercenary inputs → 1 Commando output

Choose among 10 input item names. Each of the 6 outputs has a 16.67% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 8.33% chance.

Commando targets

Compare Mercenary inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Commando inputs → 1 Assassin output

Choose among 6 input item names. Each of the 4 outputs has a 25.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 12.50% chance.

Assassin targets

Compare Commando inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Assassin inputs → 1 Elite output

Choose among 4 input item names. Each of the 2 outputs has a 50.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 25.00% chance.

Elite targets

Compare Assassin inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

Buying a higher-priced input in the same grade does not improve these single-collection odds. Price and quality still matter for cost: Strange and Non-Strange cannot be mixed. Read the odds guide or learn how expected profit differs from a guaranteed return.

Wicked Windfall Case

Container information · Series #128

Wicked Windfall Case

Wicked Windfall Case contains items from the Wicked Windfall Collection. The case was introduced on 2020-10-04. Requires a Wicked Windfall Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Wicked Windfall Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary10 items

80.00%

Commando6 items

16.00%

Assassin4 items

3.20%

Elite2 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade
  • A Handsome Handy Thing

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Calamitous Cauldron

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Flavorful Baggies

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Goblineer

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Handsome Devil

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Hollowed Helm

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • King Cardbeard

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • The Boom Boxers

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • The Ghoul Box

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • The Seared Sorcerer

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

Commando Grade
  • Eye-See-You

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

  • Glow from Below

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

  • Gourd Grin

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

  • Impish Ears

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

  • Semi-Tame Trapper's Hat

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

  • Sir Pumpkinton

    Commando · Chance: 2.67%

Assassin Grade
  • Misfortune Fedora

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

  • The Fire Tooth

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

  • Wavefinder

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

  • Wrap-A-Khamon

    Assassin · Chance: 0.80%

Elite Grade
  • All Hallows' Hatte

    Elite · Chance: 0.40%

  • Balloonicorpse

    Elite · Chance: 0.40%

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Wicked Windfall Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost30.00 ref
Expected value12.49 ref
Expected P/L−17.51 ref
ROI-58.4%
Win chance17%
Cheapest quoted inputCalamitous Cauldron3.00 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost41.10 ref
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputThe Ghoul Box4.11 ref each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
A Handsome Handy Thing3.11 refChecks when viewed4.72 refChecks when viewed
Calamitous Cauldron3.00 refChecks when viewed4.44 refChecks when viewed
Flavorful Baggies9.22 refChecks when viewed26.33 refChecks when viewed
Goblineer5.11 refChecks when viewed15.44 refChecks when viewed
Handsome Devil10.55 refChecks when viewed45.11 refChecks when viewed
Hollowed HelmSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed5.11 refChecks when viewed
King Cardbeard3.00 refChecks when viewed5.33 refChecks when viewed
The Boom Boxers9.22 refChecks when viewed27.11 refChecks when viewed
The Ghoul Box3.00 refChecks when viewed4.11 refChecks when viewed
The Seared Sorcerer26.77 refChecks when viewed1 key + 5.66 refChecks when viewed

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Eye-See-You16.7%23.88 refChecks when viewed1 key + 4.33 refChecks when viewed
Glow from Below16.7%3.33 refChecks when viewed12.55 refChecks when viewed
Gourd Grin16.7%35.77 refChecks when viewed2 keys + 12.77 refChecks when viewed
Impish Ears16.7%5.11 refChecks when viewed28.11 refChecks when viewed
Semi-Tame Trapper's Hat16.7%3.55 refChecks when viewed15.11 refChecks when viewed
Sir Pumpkinton16.7%3.33 refChecks when viewedBuy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed

Wicked Windfall Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost34.40 ref
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputGlow from Below3.44 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost2 keys + 2.44 ref
Expected valueIncomplete quotes
Expected P/LIncomplete quotes
ROIIncomplete quotes
Win chanceIncomplete quotes
Cheapest quoted inputGlow from Below13.11 ref each

Eligible Commando inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Eye-See-You24.16 refChecks when viewed1 key + 8.77 refChecks when viewed
Glow from Below3.44 refChecks when viewed13.11 refChecks when viewed
Gourd Grin35.88 refChecks when viewed2 keys + 20.00 refChecks when viewed
Impish Ears5.50 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Semi-Tame Trapper's Hat3.72 refChecks when viewed16.66 refChecks when viewed
Sir Pumpkinton3.77 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Misfortune Fedora25.0%8.00 refChecks when viewed44.33 refChecks when viewed
The Fire Tooth25.0%1 key + 20.55 refChecks when viewed3 keys + 19.33 refChecks when viewed
Wavefinder25.0%10.11 refChecks when viewed50.88 refChecks when viewed
Wrap-A-Khamon25.0%Buy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewedBuy order quote stale — awaiting refreshChecks when viewed

Wicked Windfall Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost1 key + 33.37 ref
Expected value57.66 ref
Expected P/L−40.03 ref
ROI-41.0%
Win chance0%
Cheapest quoted inputMisfortune Fedora9.77 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost8 keys + 19.76 ref
Expected value7 keys + 46.60 ref
Expected P/L−37.49 ref
ROI-7.0%
Win chance50%
Cheapest quoted inputWavefinder53.44 ref each

Eligible Assassin inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Misfortune Fedora9.77 refChecks when viewed59.55 refChecks when viewed
The Fire ToothSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Wavefinder9.77 refChecks when viewed53.44 refChecks when viewed
Wrap-A-KhamonSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
All Hallows' Hatte50.0%54.00 refChecks when viewed4 keys + 63.44 refChecks when viewed
Balloonicorpse50.0%61.33 refChecks when viewed10 keys + 29.77 refChecks when viewed

How to trade up to Wicked Windfall Collection items

How to trade up to Eye-See-You

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Wicked Windfall Collection for a 16.67% chance of Eye-See-You, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Eye-See-You trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Glow from Below

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Wicked Windfall Collection for a 16.67% chance of Glow from Below, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Glow from Below trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Gourd Grin

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Wicked Windfall Collection for a 16.67% chance of Gourd Grin, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Gourd Grin trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Impish Ears

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Wicked Windfall Collection for a 16.67% chance of Impish Ears, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Impish Ears trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Semi-Tame Trapper's Hat

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Wicked Windfall Collection for a 16.67% chance of Semi-Tame Trapper's Hat, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Semi-Tame Trapper's Hat trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Sir Pumpkinton

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Wicked Windfall Collection for a 16.67% chance of Sir Pumpkinton, one of 6 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 8.33%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Sir Pumpkinton trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Misfortune Fedora

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Wicked Windfall Collection for a 25.00% chance of Misfortune Fedora, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Misfortune Fedora trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Fire Tooth

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Wicked Windfall Collection for a 25.00% chance of The Fire Tooth, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Fire Tooth trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Wavefinder

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Wicked Windfall Collection for a 25.00% chance of Wavefinder, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Wavefinder trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Wrap-A-Khamon

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Wicked Windfall Collection for a 25.00% chance of Wrap-A-Khamon, one of 4 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 12.50%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Wrap-A-Khamon trade-up odds →

How to trade up to All Hallows' Hatte

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Wicked Windfall Collection for a 50.00% chance of All Hallows' Hatte, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate All Hallows' Hatte trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Balloonicorpse

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Wicked Windfall Collection for a 50.00% chance of Balloonicorpse, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Balloonicorpse trade-up odds →

How Wicked Windfall Collection odds work

With ten Wicked Windfall Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

Explore related TF2 collections

Abominable Cosmetic CaseAbominable Cosmetic Collection items & trade-up odds →Blue Moon Cosmetic CaseBlue Moon Cosmetics Collection items & trade-up odds →Bone-Chilling Bonanza CaseBone-Chilling Bonanza Collection items & trade-up odds →Confidential Collection CaseConfidential Collection items & trade-up odds →
Browse every TF2 collection

Anonymous action totals help improve this site. No visitor IDs are attached to those totals. Privacy details