T2TF2TradeUps.comOpen calculator

TF2 collection guide · Saved market observations

Abominable Cosmetic Collection Trade-Up Guide

Abominable Cosmetic Collection contains 20 items across 4 grades, from Mercenary to Elite. Its highest-grade items include Quizzical Quetzal, The War Eagle. Compare the Assassin-to-Elite trade-up below, including the individual odds of reaching each Elite output.

20Items
3Routes
LoadingDataset state
Data snapshot . Loading the dataset does not recheck every listing; individual quotes can still be missing or stale.

Steam pricing is temporarily paused. Prices use backpack.tf only.

Abominable Cosmetic Collection: choose your target tier

Start with the item you want, then choose the grade immediately below it. Abominable Cosmetic Collection offers 3 adjacent-grade routes. Each row below assumes ten eligible inputs from this collection, with one result per contract; these are not case-opening probabilities.

10 Mercenary inputs → 1 Commando output

Choose among 10 input item names. Each of the 5 outputs has a 20.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 10.00% chance.

Commando targets

Compare Mercenary inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Commando inputs → 1 Assassin output

Choose among 5 input item names. Each of the 3 outputs has a 33.33% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 16.67% chance.

Assassin targets

Compare Commando inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

10 Assassin inputs → 1 Elite output

Choose among 3 input item names. Each of the 2 outputs has a 50.00% chance. With five inputs from this collection and five compatible inputs from another collection, each of these targets has a 25.00% chance.

Elite targets

Compare Assassin inputs ↓Open this tier in calculator →

Buying a higher-priced input in the same grade does not improve these single-collection odds. Price and quality still matter for cost: Strange and Non-Strange cannot be mixed. Read the odds guide or learn how expected profit differs from a guaranteed return.

Abominable Cosmetic Case

Container information · Series #107

Abominable Cosmetic Case

Abominable Cosmetic Case contains items from the Abominable Cosmetic Collection. The case was introduced on 2017-09-13. Requires a Abominable Cosmetic Key to open.

View official Steam contents and case details ↗

All Abominable Cosmetic Collection Items

Base collection items, grouped by grade. Special Unusual effects and global bonus drops are separate; see the official case listing for current details.

Assumed base-drop model: 80% Mercenary, 16% Commando, 3.2% Assassin, 0.8% Elite. Each grade is split equally among its items. These user-specified assumptions exclude special drops and are separate from trade-up odds. Displayed percentages are rounded; calculations use full precision.

Grade Odds · case opening

Mercenary10 items

80.00%

Commando5 items

16.00%

Assassin3 items

3.20%

Elite2 items

0.80%

Individual Item Odds · case opening

Mercenary Grade
  • Attack Packs

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Bait and Bite

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Conagher's Utility Idol

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Fireman's Essentials

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • Forest Footwear

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • The Classy Capper

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • The Most Dangerous Mane

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • The Nuke

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • The Pithy Professional

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

  • The Shellmet

    Mercenary · Chance: 8.00%

Commando Grade
  • D-Eye-Monds

    Commando · Chance: 3.20%

  • Rifleman's Regalia

    Commando · Chance: 3.20%

  • The Croaking Hazard

    Commando · Chance: 3.20%

  • The Hunter in Darkness

    Commando · Chance: 3.20%

  • Transparent Trousers

    Commando · Chance: 3.20%

Assassin Grade
  • Jungle Jersey

    Assassin · Chance: 1.07%

  • The Aztec Aggressor

    Assassin · Chance: 1.07%

  • Tropical Toad

    Assassin · Chance: 1.07%

Elite Grade
  • Quizzical Quetzal

    Elite · Chance: 0.40%

  • The War Eagle

    Elite · Chance: 0.40%

Available trade-up routes

Lowest clean sell listing in; highest clean buy order out.

Abominable Cosmetic Collection route

Mercenary→Commando

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost27.70 ref
Expected value24.63 ref
Expected P/L−3.07 ref
ROI-11.1%
Win chance40%
Cheapest quoted inputThe Classy Capper2.77 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost1 key + 2.27 ref
Expected value1 key + 9.71 ref
Expected P/L+7.44 ref
ROI11.2%
Win chance60%
Cheapest quoted inputConaghers' Utility Idol6.66 ref each

Eligible Mercenary inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Attack Packs5.33 refChecks when viewed13.11 refChecks when viewed
Bait and BiteSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
Conagher's Utility IdolSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed6.66 refChecks when viewed
Fireman's Essentials4.44 refChecks when viewed18.00 refChecks when viewed
Forest Footwear4.33 refChecks when viewed13.00 refChecks when viewed
The Classy Capper2.77 refChecks when viewed9.44 refChecks when viewed
The Most Dangerous Mane4.77 refChecks when viewed18.22 refChecks when viewed
The Nuke7.11 refChecks when viewed24.00 refChecks when viewed
The Pithy Professional3.11 refChecks when viewedSell listing scan pendingChecks when viewed
The Shellmet11.66 refChecks when viewed26.44 refChecks when viewed

Possible Commando outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
D-Eye-Monds20.0%10.11 refChecks when viewed34.33 refChecks when viewed
Rifleman's Regalia20.0%41.66 refChecks when viewed1 key + 55.77 refChecks when viewed
The Croaking Hazard20.0%9.05 refChecks when viewed1 key + 4.00 refChecks when viewed
The Hunter in Darkness20.0%14.00 refChecks when viewed51.00 refChecks when viewed
Transparent Trousers20.0%48.33 refChecks when viewed1 key + 32.11 refChecks when viewed

Abominable Cosmetic Collection route

Commando→Assassin

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost1 key + 34.47 ref
Expected value1 key + 15.44 ref
Expected P/L−19.03 ref
ROI-19.3%
Win chance33%
Cheapest quoted inputThe Croaking Hazard9.88 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost6 keys + 22.82 ref
Expected value4 keys + 39.70 ref
Expected P/L−1 key − 47.45 ref
ROI-27.3%
Win chance33%
Cheapest quoted inputD-eye-monds40.88 ref each

Eligible Commando inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
D-Eye-Monds10.88 refChecks when viewed40.88 refChecks when viewed
Rifleman's Regalia41.88 refChecks when viewed1 key + 57.66 refChecks when viewed
The Croaking Hazard9.88 refChecks when viewed1 key + 10.44 refChecks when viewed
The Hunter in Darkness15.33 refChecks when viewed52.55 refChecks when viewed
Transparent Trousers48.11 refChecks when viewed1 key + 32.22 refChecks when viewed

Possible Assassin outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Jungle Jersey33.3%3 keys + 29.88 refChecks when viewed11 keys + 50.11 refChecks when viewed
The Aztec Aggressor33.3%8.44 refChecks when viewed1 key + 4.11 refChecks when viewed
Tropical Toad33.3%8.00 refChecks when viewed1 key + 0.55 refChecks when viewed

Abominable Cosmetic Collection route

Assassin→Elite

Load non-StrangeLoad Strange

Non-Strange

unique
10× cost1 key + 22.27 ref
Expected value1 key + 3.72 ref
Expected P/L−18.55 ref
ROI-21.4%
Win chance50%
Cheapest quoted inputThe Aztec Aggressor8.66 ref each

Strange

strange
10× cost10 keys + 36.60 ref
Expected value10 keys + 31.38 ref
Expected P/L−5.22 ref
ROI-0.8%
Win chance50%
Cheapest quoted inputTropical Toad1 key + 3.66 ref each

Eligible Assassin inputs

ItemNon-Strange askStrange askMarkets
Jungle Jersey3 keys + 43.22 refChecks when viewed12 keys + 6.11 refChecks when viewed
The Aztec Aggressor8.66 refChecks when viewed1 key + 5.77 refChecks when viewed
Tropical Toad9.33 refChecks when viewed1 key + 3.66 refChecks when viewed

Possible Elite outputs

Trade-up odds for 10 inputs from this collection—not case-opening odds.

ItemOddsNon-Strange bidStrange bidMarkets
Quizzical Quetzal50.0%1 key + 37.44 refChecks when viewed18 keys + 51.88 refChecks when viewed
The War Eagle50.0%34.33 refChecks when viewed2 keys + 10.88 refChecks when viewed

How to trade up to Abominable Cosmetic Collection items

How to trade up to D-Eye-Monds

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Abominable Cosmetic Collection for a 20.00% chance of D-Eye-Monds, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate D-Eye-Monds trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Rifleman's Regalia

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Abominable Cosmetic Collection for a 20.00% chance of Rifleman's Regalia, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Rifleman's Regalia trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Croaking Hazard

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Abominable Cosmetic Collection for a 20.00% chance of The Croaking Hazard, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Croaking Hazard trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Hunter in Darkness

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Abominable Cosmetic Collection for a 20.00% chance of The Hunter in Darkness, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Hunter in Darkness trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Transparent Trousers

Use ten eligible Mercenary inputs from Abominable Cosmetic Collection for a 20.00% chance of Transparent Trousers, one of 5 Commando outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 10.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Transparent Trousers trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Jungle Jersey

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Abominable Cosmetic Collection for a 33.33% chance of Jungle Jersey, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Jungle Jersey trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The Aztec Aggressor

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Abominable Cosmetic Collection for a 33.33% chance of The Aztec Aggressor, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The Aztec Aggressor trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Tropical Toad

Use ten eligible Commando inputs from Abominable Cosmetic Collection for a 33.33% chance of Tropical Toad, one of 3 Assassin outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 16.67%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Tropical Toad trade-up odds →

How to trade up to Quizzical Quetzal

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Abominable Cosmetic Collection for a 50.00% chance of Quizzical Quetzal, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate Quizzical Quetzal trade-up odds →

How to trade up to The War Eagle

Use ten eligible Assassin inputs from Abominable Cosmetic Collection for a 50.00% chance of The War Eagle, one of 2 Elite outputs. With five inputs from this collection in a compatible mixed contract, that chance becomes 25.00%. Neither recipe guarantees this item.

Calculate The War Eagle trade-up odds →

How Abominable Cosmetic Collection odds work

With ten Abominable Cosmetic Collection inputs, every next-rarity item shown in the applicable output table has an equal chance. The number of input item names does not change those single-collection odds.

In a mixed contract, each individual input contributes 10% to its collection. Five inputs from this collection therefore assign 50% of the contract to this collection, split evenly among its possible outputs.

Strange and non-Strange items cannot be combined in one contract. Their prices and profitability can differ substantially, so this page calculates them separately.

Market depth, price movement and seller availability are not modeled. Always open the marketplace links and confirm that ten clean, eligible inputs can actually be purchased before trading.

Explore related TF2 collections

Blue Moon Cosmetic CaseBlue Moon Cosmetics Collection items & trade-up odds →Bone-Chilling Bonanza CaseBone-Chilling Bonanza Collection items & trade-up odds →Confidential Collection CaseConfidential Collection items & trade-up odds →Creepy Crawly CaseCreepy Crawly Collection items & trade-up odds →
Browse every TF2 collection

Anonymous action totals help improve this site. No visitor IDs are attached to those totals. Privacy details